Optimization of test interval for ageing equipment: A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach

Reducing the unavailability of safety systems at nuclear power plants, by utilizing the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology, is one of the prime goals in the nuclear industry. In that sense, optimization of test and maintenance activities, which are defined within the technical specifications, represents quite popular and interesting domain. Obtaining optimal test and maintenance schedule is of great significance for improving system availability and performance as well as plant availability in general.On the other side, equipment aging has gradually become a major concern in the nuclear industry since the number of safety systems components, that are approaching their wear-out stage, is rising fast. Nuclear power plants life management programs, considering safety components aging, are being developed and employed. The immense uncertainty associated to the available component aging rates databases poses significant difficulties in the process of incorporation and quantification of the aging effect within the PSA and, subsequently, in the decision-making process.In this paper, an approach for optimization of surveillance test interval of standby equipment with highly uncertain aging parameters, based on genetic algorithm technique and PSA, is presented. A standard standby safety system in nuclear power plant is selected as a case study. A Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to assess uncertainty propagation on system level. Optimal test interval is derived on the basis of minimal system unavailability and minimal impact of components aging parameters uncertainty. The results obtained in this application indicate the fact that risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications as well as show the importance of considering aging data uncertainties in component aging modeling.     

机电现代化与煤矿安全生产

针对目前国内煤矿生产安全问题,从更新现有的老化机电设备、改进生产技术、实现机电现代化生产的角度,阐述煤矿机械设备集成创新、加快煤矿机械电子发展、改进煤机企业机床设备、煤矿机械设备引进等观点,提出一些新见解和主张。煤矿机械具有复杂工作环境的特殊性,对其机电设备的改进,实行现代化生产技术,开展现代化的企业管理,可以提高生产安全性、可靠性,减轻体力劳动,减少伤亡事故,对保证安全生产有重要的现实意义和指导作用。     

我国城市人口老龄化的交通安全问题与对策

随着人口老龄化趋势 ,给我国交通安全管理带来了新的问题 ,特别是在人口老龄化速度较高的城市。为了更好地保障老年人交通安全及其他合法交通权益 ,根据老年人的交通心理特征及活动规律 ,应采取适合老年人特点的交通安全管理方法和对策 :从安全教育的角度出发 ,倡导以家庭教育为主 ,以开展专门教育、组织交通安全活动等社会教育为辅 ;从出行管理的角度出发 ,加强路面老年人交通管理 ,创造良好的交通设施和环境 ,提倡穿着艳丽服装。     

An integrated methodology to manage risk factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines

Aging urban oil and gas pipelines have a high failure probability due to their structural degradation and external interference. The operational safety of the aging urban oil and gas pipeline is challenged by different hazards. This paper proposes a novel methodology by integrating an index-based risk evaluation system and fuzzy TOPSIS model for risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines, and it is carried out by evaluating the priority of hazards affecting pipeline safety. Firstly, the hazard factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines are identified to establish an index-based risk evaluation system. Subsequently, the fuzzy TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the importance of these hazard factors and to decide which factors should be managed with priority. This work measures the importance of a hazard factor from three aspects, i.e. occurrence (O), severity (S) and detectability (D), and the weights of these three parameters are determined by a combination weight method. Eventually, the proposed methodology is tested by an industrial case to illustrate its effectiveness, and some safety strategies to reduce the operational risk of the pipeline are presented. The proposed methodology is a useful tool to implement more efficient risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines.     

老龄海底油气管道弃置决策研究

针对我国老龄海底油气管道在弃置决策上缺少理论依据的问题,建立老龄海底油气管道弃置决策模型的结构流程,基于多属性效用理论,从4个维度进行分析,选取影响老龄海底管道安全寿命的工程因素、结构因素、风险因素和影响决策的成本因素,构建属性树;运用模糊理论建立模糊互补判断矩阵,综合专家意见计算各属性权重,并进行影响因素敏感性分析;确定老龄海底管道弃置决策评分准则,对属性树各因素取值进行量化,引入成本效益率量化成本因素;采用逻辑运算计算综合得分,根据综合得分进行弃置决策。工程实例应用表明:相比于传统决策方法仅凭设计寿命作为弃置依据,老龄海底管道弃置决策模型不仅避免了单一性,还能反应服役环境对管道的影响,有利于提高管道服役过程的经济性和安全性。     

考虑人口老龄化的地铁安全疏散仿真研究

为研究老龄化程度对地铁安全疏散的影响,基于人口统计学数据,运用多智能体仿真方法模拟2050年人口老龄化情况下徐州市某地铁站乘客疏散情况,并通过视觉智能识别方法验证仿真模型对地铁乘客疏散描述的准确性。研究结果表明:老龄化比例增加一定程度上会使疏散时间增加,老龄化比例对总体疏散时间的影响程度与疏散总人数有关,疏散总人数越低,随着老龄化比例的增加整体疏散时间显著增加。     

Behaving safely under pressure: The effects of job demands,resources, and safety climate on employee physical and psychosocial safety behavior

Introduction: Previous research has shown that employees who experience high job demands are more inclined to show unsafe behaviors in the workplace. In this paper, we examine why some employees behave safely when faced with these demands while others do not. We add to the literature by incorporating both physical and psychosocial safety climate in the job demands and resources (JD-R) model and extending it to include physical and psychosocial variants of safety behavior. Method: Using a sample of 6230 health care employees nested within 52 organizations, we examined the relationship between job demands and (a) resources, (b) safety climate, and (c) safety behavior. We conducted multilevel analyses to test our hypotheses. Results: Job demands (i.e., work pressure), job resources (i.e., job autonomy, supervisor support, and co-worker support) and safety climate (both physical and psychosocial safety climate) are directly associated with, respectively, lower and higher physical and psychosocial safety behavior. We also found some evidence that safety climate buffers the negative impact of job demands (i.e., work–family conflict and job insecurity) on safety behavior and strengthens the positive impact of job resources (i.e., co-worker support) on safety behavior. Conclusions: Regardless of whether the focus is physical or psychological safety, our results show that strengthening the safety climate within an organization can increase employees' safety behavior. Practical implication: An organization's safety climate is an optimal target of intervention to prevent and ameliorate negative physical and psychological health and safety outcomes, especially in times of uncertainty and change.     

What safety models and principles can be adapted and used in security science?

Engineering risk management is comprised of managing operational safety risks on the one hand and managing physical security risks on the other. Although some basic management principles are obviously the same for both safety and security, some important conceptual and calculation differences exist, as is explained in this paper. For instance, safety risk is usually calculated based on the scenarios’ consequences and likelihoods, while security needs to be determined by the assessment of vulnerability, the likelihood of attack and potential consequences. Nonetheless, there are also many similarities. Conceptual models, metaphors and principles that have been elaborated in the safety domain during the past century, many of them based on major accidents and their investigation, can easily be translated to the security domain. In the present study, we will explain how physical security should be seen in relation to safety, and what models and principles, derived from safety science, can be employed to manage the security aspects associated with physical threats.     

施工现场工作环境安全评价

随着经济的发展,人们对于安全,包括工作环境的安全的要求越来越高.目前对工作环境安全性的评价,一是采用定性的方法,二是依靠历史统计数据,对危险性进行量化.主要对象是人机环境中"机"的因素.本文利用实验心理学的有关理论,尝试通过人对环境的生理、心理反应建立评价工作环境安全性的方法.该方法应用于竹脚手架、金属脚手架的安全性比较研究的实验,分析结果显示它能够较客观地评价工作环境的安全程度.     

飞行员驾驶水平、管理能力和身心素质对安全绩效的影响关系研究

为提高飞行员安全绩效,运用结构方程模型探讨了驾驶水平、管理能力和身心素质三者对安全绩效的影响程度。结果表明,驾驶水平、管理能力和身心素质对安全绩效影响的标准化路径系数分别为0.20,0.22和0.17。飞行员管理能力对安全绩效的影响程度最大,其次是驾驶水平,身心素质对安全绩效的影响程度最小。同时管理能力对驾驶水平影响的标准化路径系数为0.19,说明管理能力通过驾驶水平的中介作用对安全绩效产生间接影响。而身心素质对驾驶水平的影响不显著,身心素质不会通过影响驾驶水平间接影响安全绩效。     

埋地聚乙烯燃气管道基于失效模式的全面检验关键技术及工程应用

PE管道固有较高的性价比,广泛应用在能源、燃气等工程中,但因其焊接接头质量难以检测、位置探查难度大,使PE管道的安全状况难以控制,导致泄漏等事故。基于PE管材的失效模式,参照钢质管道的检验经验,中国特种设备检测研究院研究确定了PE管道基于失效模式的全面检验关键技术,并围绕关键技术开展了多项研究,取得了一系列科研成果,如：PE管焊接质量超声相控阵动态聚焦和B扫查成像检测、探地雷达、泄漏在线检测、老化及安全评价、风险评估方法等。这些系列成果,在新疆、青海、内蒙古、宁夏等城市PE燃气管网中得到了有效应用,检验出多项安全隐患,为城市燃气的安全提供了保障,为今后全面开展PE管线检验,提供了成功经验。     

Psychosocial safety climate: Conceptual distinctiveness and effect on job demands and worker psychological health

Psychosocial safety climate is an emerging construct that refers to shared perceptions regarding policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety. The purpose of the research was to: (1) demonstrate that psychosocial safety climate is a construct distinct from related climate measures (i.e., physical safety climate, team psychological safety, and perceived organizational support); and (2) test the proposition that organizational psychosocial safety climate determines work conditions (i.e., job demands) and subsequently worker psychological health. We used samples from two different cultures; an Australian sample (N = 126 workers in 16 teams within a primary health care organization) and a Malaysian sample (N = 180 workers in 31 teams from different organizations and diverse industries). In both samples confirmatory factor analysis verified that psychosocial safety climate is a construct distinct from related climate measures. Using hierarchical linear modeling, psychosocial safety climate was superior to other team level climate measures in its negative relationship to both job demands and psychological health problems. Results supported a mediation process, psychosocial safety climate → job demands → psychological health problems, corroborating psychosocial safety climate as a preeminent stress risk factor, and an efficient target for intervention. We found both physical and psychosocial safety climates were stronger in the Australian, compared with the Malaysian work context. Levels of psychosocial safety climate were significantly lower than those of physical safety climate in both countries indicating a ‘universal’ lack of attention to workplace psychological health.     

广东省重特大火灾事故统计分析及预防控制

通过收集整理1991 - 2010年广东省重特大火灾事故数据,从广东省重特大火灾事故概况人手,归纳重特大火灾事故发生发展趋势、伤亡情况以及与经济增长的关系,并主要从直接原因、空间分布和时间分布等为分类依据对广东省重特大火灾事故进行深入分析.研究表明:广东省重特大火灾事故主要发生在凌晨和午后时段及夏季和季节转换期,主要分布于生产场所和普通仓库；广东省重特大火灾是管理疏忽、意识淡薄、设备陈旧、可燃物管理不善、自救能力弱等多因素综合的结果.本文从安全管理、安全技术以及安全法律法规等方面,提出火灾预防和控制对策,如针对性的安全检查、提高监控能力、合理制定应急预案及定期演练计划、强化初期火灾处理能力等,综合各方之力,保障消防安全.     

城市地下空间管道施工坍塌事故行为原因研究

为了进一步了解城市地下空间管道施工坍塌事故发生的原因,笔者运用行为安全"2-4"模型事故致因分析方法分析了27起典型的管道施工坍塌事故,分析得出17类共109个不安全动作和6类共34个不安全物态,不安全动作中发生率较高的是不按要求对基坑放坡和加固、未对作业人员安全教育培训或者培训不到位以及施工前未进行风险识别或者识别不到位,并对这3方面不安全动作进行进一步分析;不安全物态中发生率较高的是未加支撑的基坑侧壁、存在淤泥和松软土质结构的开挖层。得出安全知识不足7类共58项,安全意识的淡薄,对于生产主管主要体现在雇佣临时工,施工现场作业人员则体现在不注意环境周围存在的安全隐患;得出安全管理体系的欠缺9类共88项,因安全生产规章制度缺乏或制度不合格导致安全管理体系欠缺占比最大,因无安全技术交底或技术交底不到位导致安全管理体系的欠缺居于第二位,施工前未进行风险识别或者识别不到位在27起事故中也出现12次,也是安全管理工作中不可忽视的因素。     

谈锅炉安全管理

锅炉老化现象是锅炉安全运行的严重隐患,加大锅炉维修保养力度,加强水处理工作,确保锅炉安全附件灵敏可靠以及严格执行各项规章制度是保证锅炉安全运行、防止因锅炉老化等因素而造成事故的重要保证。     

Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.     

管制员安全能力模型研究

为准确评价管制员安全能力,基于能力的定义和管制员工作职责,界定管制员安全能力的内涵;依据该内涵及其工作特性,建立由身体素质、业务素质和意识3个结构维度组成的管制员安全能力模型。其中,身体素质包括生理状况和心理状况;业务素质包括教育状况、培训状况、技能状况和经验状况;意识包括安全意识和工作意识。在各项指标性质差异较大情况下,利用功效系数法实现评价指标的标准化以减小误差,客观反映指标情况,同时采用G1-法和熵值法集成的主客观综合赋权法确定指标的权重,在一定程度上弥补主客观单一赋权的不足,最后通过逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)评价管制员安全能力。结果表明,按照从大到小排序对管制员安全能力的影响因素依次为意识、身体素质和业务素质。就对所论能力的影响而言,心理状况强于生理状况;技能状况强教育、培训和经验状况;安全意识对意识的影响大于工作意识。     

The moderating effects of job control and selection,optimization, and compensation strategies on the age–work ability relationship

Work ability describes employees' capability to carry out their work with respect to physical and psychological job demands. This study investigated direct and interactive effects of age, job control, and the use of successful aging strategies called selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) in predicting work ability. We assessed SOC strategies and job control by using employee self‐reports, and we measured employees' work ability using supervisor ratings. Data collected from 173 health‐care employees showed that job control was positively associated with work ability. Additionally, we found a three‐way interaction effect of age, job control, and use of SOC strategies on work ability. Specifically, the negative relationship between age and work ability was weakest for employees with high job control and high use of SOC strategies. These results suggest that the use of successful aging strategies and enhanced control at work are conducive to maintaining the work ability of aging employees. We discuss theoretical and practical implications regarding the beneficial role of the use of SOC strategies utilized by older employees and enhanced contextual resources at work for aging employees. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

煤矿工人体能负荷与工伤事故关系研究

体力负荷过重而导致疲劳是引起事故不可忽视的重要原因之一.为研究煤矿井下工人体能负荷对工伤事故发生风险的影响,选择北京XX煤矿作为调查对象,测定井下不同岗位矿工的劳动负荷和疲劳指数,回顾性调查近5年内各类工伤事故发生情况,进而分析与工伤事故发生的关系.统计分析结果表明,在疲劳状态下事故发生的危险性明显增加;劳动负荷越重,疲劳越重,事故发生率也相对较高.减轻疲劳对预防事故与保证工作安全具有很重要的意义.