Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies. The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered.     

Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 ％ above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.     

On integration of policies for climate and global change

Currently envisaged mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions will be insufficient to appreciably limit climate change and its impacts. Adaptation holds the promise of ameliorating the impacts on a small subset of systems being affected. There is no question that both will be needed. However, climate change is only part of a broader multi-stress setting of global through to local changes. Privileging climate related policies over other concerns leads to tragic outcomes. Climate policies need to be designed for and integrated into this broader and challenging context. This paper focuses on placing climate change within the broader context of global change and the importance of aligning climate policy objectives with the myriad other policies that still need to be implemented if our primary goal is improving human welfare rather than limiting our focus to climate change and its impacts.     

Regional news portrayals of global warming and climate change

In this study we utilize content analysis techniques to examine how the issue of global warming and climate change has been characterized during the period of 1992 through 2005 by the Houston Chronicle—the largest regional newspaper in the Texas coastal region. A total of 795 global warming and climate change news articles from the Houston Chronicle are collected, coded and analyzed. Data analyses are organized and presented with regard to issue salience, various issue attributes (issue image, scope, linkage, participant, proposed solution and responsible party), use of science, and scientific information sources cited in the news stories. We find that regional media attention to the global climate change issue generally increases over time and an overwhelming majority of the news articles view the issue as a harmful problem. However, given the scientific consensus that global warming will result in significant devastating climate change consequences to the coastal regions, there are still a fair number of news articles delivering mixed, undetermined or even non-harmful messages. We also find that climate change is often discussed as a national or international-global issue, and frequently linked to a number of other public issues rather than just being viewed as an environmental–ecological problem. Moreover, we find that emphasis on issue solutions is placed more on mitigation strategies than on adaptation behaviors, and that both governmental and non-governmental actions and responsibilities are suggested for dealing with climate change. In addition, our findings indicate that the regional newspaper in Texas obtains scientific information on climate change primarily from academic institutions. Implications of our findings and recommendations for future research are discussed in the concluding section.     

Correction to: Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The original version of the article unfortunately contained an error.     

An assessment of potential responses of Melaleuca genus to global climate change

The genus Melaleuca consists of around 260 species covering over eight million hectares (including native and introduced species) and distributed mostly in Australia, but also occurring in South-East Asia, the Southern United States and the Caribbean. Melaleuca populations predominantly occur in wetland or/and coastal ecosystems where they have been significantly affected by climate change. This paper assesses the potential responses of the Melaleuca genus to climate change, based on the synthesis of worldwide published data. The main findings include: (i) that the Melaleuca genus has a rich species diversity, and significant phenotypic diversity in a variety of ecosystems; (ii) they demonstrate significant local adaptation to harsh conditions; and (iii) the fossil records and taxon biology indicate the evolution of the Melaleuca genus began around 38 million years ago and they have survived several significant climatic alterations, particularly a shift towards cooler and drier climates that has occurred over this period. These findings show that the Melaleuca genus is highly resilient and adaptable and based on this, this paper argues that Melaleuca can adapt to climate change through Wright’s ‘migrational adaptation’, and can be managed to achieve sustainable benefits.     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.     

未来对中国与世界至关重要的十年

应对气候变化已经成为全世界共同面对的重要议题 全球数千名科学家合作对温室气体排放与全球平均气温上升之间的关系做了许多模拟和情景预测.研究结果表明,如果按照目前能源利用趋势,2030年全球温室气体排放量将达402亿吨当量,几乎是1990年的两倍.这意味着大气中温室气体的浓度将超过1000 ppm(1ppm为百万分之一),全球气温将上升6摄氏度.6度升温,将导致大规模气候变化,给地球和人类带来难以承受和无法弥补的损害.     

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.     

regionalclimate Characteristics of regional climate change and pattern analysis on Ordos Plateau

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Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021–2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039–0.056 °C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28–3.29 % compared with the 1991–2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021–2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53–9.67 % relative to 1991–2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model’s projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.     

Integrating mitigation and adaptation as responses to climate change: a synthesis

Integrating mitigation and adaptation (M&A) is a practical reality for climate change response policy, despite a range of conceptual and methodological challenges. Based on the papers in this special issue, some preliminary findings about appropriate integrated portfolios are offered, along with several implications for climate policy.     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (−) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows – which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions – triggers GDP losses ranging from (−) 0.5% in Small Island States to (−) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia. The impact of sea level rise and tourism were simulated jointly and the results compared with those of the two disjoint simulations. From a qualitative point of view, the joint effects are similar to the outcomes of the disjoint exercises; from a quantitative perspective, however, impact interaction does play a significant role. In six cases out of 16 there is a detectable (higher than 2% and peaking to 70%) difference between the sum of the outcomes in the disjoint simulation and the outcomes of the joint simulations. Moreover, the relative contribution of each single impact category has been disentangled from the final result. In the case under scrutiny, demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply-side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.

Adaptation to climate change in the transport sector: a review of actions and actors

This paper identifies the literature that deals with adaptation to climate change in the transport sector. It presents a systematic review of the adaptations suggested in the literature. Although it is frequently claimed that this socially and economically important sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change, there is comparatively little research into its adaptation. The 63 sources we found are analysed following an action framework of adaptation. This distinguishes different adaptational functions and means of adaptation. By an open coding procedure, a total of 245 adaptations are found and classified. The paper shows a broad diversity of interdependent actors to be relevant—ranging from transportation providers to public and private actors and households. Crucial actors are hybrid in terms of being public or private. A substantial share of the identified adaptations follows a top-down adaptation policy pattern where a public or hybrid operator initiates action that affects private actors. Most of the exceptions from this pattern are technical or engineering measures. Identified adaptations mostly require institutional means, followed by technical means, and knowledge. Generally, knowledge on adapting transport to climate change is still in a stage of infancy. The existing literature either focuses on overly general adaptations, or on detailed technical measures. Further research is needed on the actual implementation of adaptation, and on more precise institutional instruments that fill the gap between too vague and too site-specific adaptations.     

气候传播,应对气候变化的“提速器”

任何问题的传播都同时伴随人们对这个问题的关注。从受众的角度出发,因为关注,就会有兴趣了解更多,从而催生传播的需求;从传播者的角度分析,只有通过传播,才能使问题得到广泛的、正确的认知,从而推动问题早日解决。毫无疑问,气候变化已经成为全人类共同面对的挑战,气候传播势在必行。