基于FLACS的LPG槽车卸车作业泄漏后果影响研究

为探究LPG槽车发生泄漏时环境因素的影响关系,针对LPG槽车的万向管与槽车连接处脱落卸车场景,通过后果模拟软件FLACS进行事故仿真,研究LPG槽车在不同风速、风向、环境温度下的泄漏规律。研究结果表明：风速越大,可燃气云体积越小,达到峰值的时间更早,物料浓度更低;不同风向下扩散距离越大,可燃气云体积越小,物料浓度越低;LPG浓度随泄漏扩散距离呈衰减现象,环境温度对于LPG扩散的浓度分布影响较小;发生泄漏事故时,应保持直立状态尽快逃离泄漏区域。     

山脚地形下天然气管道泄漏扩散的特性分析北大核心CSCD

为了研究山地天然气管道泄漏扩散的影响情况,掌握山地管道泄漏扩散的规律,以西南山地天然气管道沿线高后果区为工程背景,建立山脚地形下管道泄漏扩散模型,采用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent研究不同泄漏孔径、不同风速对山脚地形下泄漏扩散的影响情况。结果表明:随泄漏孔径增大天然气射流核变粗、变长,射流初始截面和初始速度变大,射流的高度和幅度也变大,泄漏的影响区域变大;随泄漏孔径增加山脚地形下射流中心线的偏转程度变大,山脚处聚集的甲烷质量分数越来越高;在有风条件下,风速作用使甲烷在山脚处产生了聚集,且聚集的甲烷质量分数超过使人窒息的甲烷质量分数10%,随风速增大山脚处甲烷聚集的质量分数先增加后减小,且沿山坡向上扩散的甲烷质量分数先增加后减小。     

风速对LNG泄漏扩散过程影响的数值模拟

为研究环境风速对液化天然气(LNG)泄漏扩散过程的影响,采用Fluent建立LNG连续泄漏计算流体力学模型,开展不同风速下LNG泄漏扩散过程的数值模拟研究。结果表明,LNG泄漏扩散分为扩散初期、扩散中期、扩散后期3个阶段,扩散过程中LNG从低温重气逐渐转变成轻质气体。环境风速对气云的扩散主要体现在:低于5级风时,云团以两侧卷吸为主,气云表现为"叶状分叉"、中间低两端高,此时气云横风向扩散较快,甲烷扩散距离与冻伤距离随风速增大而增大;而高于5级风时,云团以顶部卷吸为主,气云表现为云团坍塌、中间高两端低,此时气云垂直风向扩散较快,甲烷扩散距离与冻伤距离随风速增大而减小。初步建立了LNG蒸气云爆炸风险范围与冻伤区域和泄漏时间、环境风速的函数关系,可为爆炸风险区域和低温冻伤区域的预测提供理论支撑。     

受限空间泄漏孔径对气体扩散影响的模拟研究

室内天然气意外泄漏后极易引起火灾爆炸事故,为避免或减少其事故的发生,得到泄漏后气体扩散规律及爆炸危险浓度分布状况,利用Fluent软件对某12m×7m厂房在不同泄漏孔径下泄漏扩散情况进行了数值模拟.分析风速为1 m/s时,泄漏孔径对甲烷气体扩散的影响,并将燃气管道泄漏速率的模拟结果与理论预测值进行对比分析.结果表明:所建立的数学模型和设置参数是合理的;在不同泄漏孔径下,监测受限空间内5个不同点气体分布状况,得出在风速和壁面的影响下,排气扇附近相对较危险,窗户下方相对较安全.     

可燃气体储罐区泄漏危险性定量分析

对位于某城市中心附近的可燃气体储罐区的气体泄漏危险性进行了分析,求出了下风向最大可燃范围和中毒范围.进行灵敏度分析以便识别风速、泄漏面积对泄漏危险性的影响.分析结果显示,风速、泄漏面积对泄漏危险性有显著影响.随着泄漏面积增大,下风向最大可燃范围增大;随着风速的增大,下风向最大可燃范围则减小.最后提出了若干安全措施的建议.     

穿越城市生活区的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果评估研究

为评估城市天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃事故后果,基于计算流体力学(CFD)方法构建穿越城市区域的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果预测与评估模型,以某城市生活区域为例,在城市生活区域建筑物内风场流动计算的基础上,模拟风场作用下可燃气体在城市建筑物空间内的运移规律,预测可燃气云的积聚区域;考虑意外点火的情况,计算城市生活区域内可燃气云爆燃灾害特征,预测爆燃超压、热辐射和高温的影响。研究结果表明：由于建筑物之间的阻挡与反射作用,建筑物下风向有明显的低风速区域,并在一定时间段后扩散过程趋于稳定;在爆燃火焰作用下,高温和热辐射会造成建筑物部分钢结构发生失效变形。     

风速对LPG球罐泄漏扩散过程的影响研究

液化石油气(LPG)泄漏扩散受风速、温度、压力等因素影响,其中风力作用对泄漏扩散过程的影响最明显.为研究风速对LPG球罐泄漏扩散的影响规律,以1000 m3球罐为原型,首先建立LPG球罐泄漏扩散数学模型并进行理论计算,其次建立不同风速下LPG球罐泄漏扩散的FLUENT数值模型,结合理论计算对数值模拟结果进行验证.结果表...     

开敞空间可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压及灾害动力响应研究评述

为了进一步梳理和分析开敞空间可燃云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律及灾害动力响应方面的各项研究成果,推进可燃气体爆炸安全防控,减少人员伤亡和经济损失。在分析现有研究的基础上,总结开敞空间可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律及灾害动力响应研究等方面存在的不足,提出开敞空间多元混合气体爆炸冲击波超压传播规律研究、多影响参数下可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压传播规律定量分析、基于可燃气云爆炸冲击波超压作用下的承载体动力响应等未来研究的关键技术问题。     

泄漏孔高度对液氯槽罐车泄漏后果的影响研究

为研究液氯槽罐车在道路运输过程中,罐体泄漏孔高度对液氯泄漏扩散过程的影响,本文基于计算流体力学软件Fluent,建立不同高度泄漏孔对应的罐体气相、液相空间泄漏的理论模型,计算不同泄漏模型的泄漏量,研究不同风向、风速、泄漏孔径对氯气泄漏扩散过程的影响。结果表明:风向对2种泄漏模式的扩散范围影响不显著;风速较小时,气相空间泄漏的致命范围大于液相泄漏;风速较大时,液相空间泄漏的致命范围远远大于气相空间;同时,两者受风速的影响具有相似点,风速越大泄漏扩散相对稳定后的氯气浓度值越低;气相、液相泄漏模式的致命范围均随泄漏孔径的增大而增大。研究成果可为液氯槽罐车泄漏事故应急救援、应急处置提供依据。     

LNG储罐泄漏危险性计算及影响因素分析

针对LNG储罐泄漏气体扩散模拟分析过程中存在计算和分析过程复杂的问题,选取适当的气体扩散模型,对危险气体的扩散进行模拟和分析,绘制蒸汽扩散UFL(爆炸上限)、LFL(爆炸下限)、1/2LFL浓度等值线图,实现蒸汽扩散伤害分区的准确划分,提高了计算速率和精确度。并利用程序模拟分析了风速、地表粗糙度、泄漏速率等因素对LNG泄漏气体扩散影响。研究结果表明,当风速方向和泄漏源泄漏方向相同时,蒸汽扩散距离和危害范围随风速增大呈减小趋势;蒸汽在下风向扩散距离随着地表粗糙度的增大而减小;扩散距离和危害范围随泄漏速率的增大而增大。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。