Species Extinction in the Marine Environment: Tasmania as a Regional Example of Overlooked Losses in Biodiversity

Abstract:  We used Tasmania as a case example to question the consensus that few marine species have recently become extinct or are approaching extinction. Threats to marine and estuarine species—primarily in the form of climate change, invasive species, fishing, and catchment discharges—are accelerating, fully encompass species ranges, and are of sufficient magnitude to cause extinction. Our ignorance of declining biodiversity in the marine environment largely results from an almost complete lack of systematic broad-scale sampling and an overreliance on physicochemical data to monitor environmental trends. Population declines for marine species approaching extinction will generally go unnoticed because of the hidden nature of their environment and lack of quantitative data.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Vegetation Response to Early Holocene Warming as an Analog for Current and Future Changes

Abstract: Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5–4 °C over the next 60–90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid‐colonizing species should increase, whereas slow‐colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 °C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early‐successional species rapidly increased, whereas late‐successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less‐extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late‐successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early‐successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early‐successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

气候变化对物种影响研究综述

综述了气候变化对物种的影响,表明气候变化会造成生物物候期的改变,导致物种地理分布的变化,增加物种的灭绝速率。分析了利用模型进行气候变化影响模拟的技术,指出模型的适用性和不确定性。最后,针对中国相关研究的不足,展望了未来开展气候变化影响研究的方向。     

高山植物对全球气候变暖的响应研究进展

高山地区被认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,气候变暖导致高山生境内生物与非生物环境因子发生不同程度的改变,从而引起高山植物从不同层面作出不同的变化或响应.综述了高山及亚高山高海拔生境内,植物从宏观生态系统层面到微观个体生理层面对全球气候变化进行响应的研究进展.植物由个体自身的生理及形态上产生不同响应,逐步经过"瀑布式上升效应(Cascade effects)",最后引起整个高山生态系统的转变.受局地差异性及物种差异性影响,生物多样性在不同高山地区呈现出或是增加或是减少的趋势;林线及植被向高纬度、高海拔地区扩张;植物间相互关系由协作转向中性乃至竞争;植物物候、繁殖、生物量生产、光合作用、年轮生长、营养结构等方面均呈现出不同的响应模式.这些从微观到宏观的不同响应模式,最终将引起高山生态系统在结构、功能上的改变,进而在很大范围上威胁到高山植物的生存与发展.最后提出该领域未来的研究重点.参147     

Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species

Abstract:  Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.     

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

An Assessment of Invasion Risk from Assisted Migration

Abstract:  To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM.     

Are Modern Biological Invasions an Unprecedented Form of Global Change?

Abstract:  The uniqueness of the current, global mass invasion by nonindigenous species has been challenged recently by researchers who argue that modern rates and consequences of nonindigenous species establishment are comparable to episodes in the geological past. Although there is a fossil record of species invasions occurring in waves after geographic barriers had been lifted, such episodic events differ markedly from human-assisted invasions in spatial and temporal scales and in the number and diversity of organisms involved in long-distance dispersal. Today, every region of the planet is simultaneously affected and modern rates of invasion are several orders of magnitude higher than prehistoric rates. In terms of its rate and geographical extent, its potential for synergistic disruption and the scope of its evolutionary consequences, the current mass invasion event is without precedent and should be regarded as a unique form of global change. Prehistoric examples of biotic interchanges are nonetheless instructive and can increase our understanding of species-area effects, evolutionary effects, biotic resistance to invasion, and the impacts of novel functional groups introduced to naïve biotas. Nevertheless, they provide only limited insight into the synergistic effects of invasions and other environmental stressors, the effect of frequent introductions of large numbers of propagules, and global homogenization, all of which characterize the current mass invasion event .     

Species Review of Amphibian Extinction Risks in Madagascar: Conclusions from the Global Amphibian Assessment

Abstract:  We assessed the extinction risks of Malagasy amphibians by evaluating their distribution, occurrence in protected areas, population trends, habitat quality, and prevalence in commercial trade. We estimated and mapped the distribution of each of the 220 described Malagasy species and applied, for the first time, the IUCN Red List categories and criteria to all species described at the time of the assessment. Nine species were categorized as critically endangered, 21 as endangered, and 25 as vulnerable. The most threatened species occur on the High Plateau and/or have been subjected to overcollection for the pet trade, but restricted extent of occurrence and ongoing habitat destruction were identified as the most important factors influencing extinction threats. The two areas with the majority of threatened species were the northern Tsaratanana-Marojejy-Masoala highlands and the southeastern Anosy Mountains. The current system of protected areas includes 82% of the threatened amphibian species. Of the critically endangered species, 6 did not occur in any protected area. For conservation of these species we recommend the creation of a reserve for the species of the Mantella aurantiaca group, the inclusion of two Scaphiophryne species in the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species Appendix II, and the suspension of commercial collecting for Mantella cowani . Field surveys during the last 15 years reveal no pervasive extinction of Malagasy amphibians resulting from disease or other agents, as has been reported in some other areas of the world.     

Conservation Status as a Biodiversity Trend Indicator: Recommendations from a Decade of Listing Species at Risk in British Columbia

Abstract:  Species conservation status is commonly used as a broad-scale indicator of the state of biological diversity. To learn about its value for tracking trends, we examined provincial lists of terrestrial vertebrate species and subspecies at risk in British Columbia, Canada, for 1992 and 2002 to see whether changes in these lists reflected changes in the status of the taxa they represent. Examination of the case histories of individual species and subspecies showed that 65% of additions and deletions to the British Columbia Red List were the result of improvement in knowledge of species status, changes in assessment procedures, and refinements in taxonomy rather than actual changes in a species' status. Comparison to an alternate set of rank scores provided by NatureServe for taxa that appeared on both 1992 and 2002 British Columbia Red Lists revealed changes in status that were not reflected by movement from the list. Estimates of historical conservation status for species on the 1992 British Columbia Red List demonstrated ambiguity around the natural baseline with regard to tracking changes in list composition over time. We discourage the continued use of indicators based solely on conservation status as a means of tracking biodiversity. Instead we recommend advancing strategic indicators around species at risk based on long-term monitoring data, deliberate and explicitly stated baselines, and consistent methods of conservation ranking.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Reserve Selection: Representation, Species Weighting, and Benefit Functions

Abstract:  The limited availability of resources for conservation has led to the development of many quantitative methods for selecting reserves that aim to maximize the biodiversity value of reserve networks. In published analyses, species are often considered equal, although some are in much greater need of protection than others. Furthermore, representation is usually treated as a threshold: a species is either represented or not, but varying levels of representation over or under a given target level are not valued differently. We propose that a higher representation level should also have higher value. We introduce a framework for reserve selection that includes species weights and benefit functions for under- and overrepresentation (number of locations for each species). We applied the method to conservation planning for herb-rich forests in southern Finland. Our use of benefit functions and weighting changed the identity of about 50% of the selected sites at different funding levels and improved the representation of rare and threatened species. We also identified a small area of additional land that would substantially enhance the existing reserve network. We suggest that benefit functions and species weighting should be considered as standard options in reserve-selection applications.     

研究高寒区植物生长过程对气候变化响应的封顶式生长室系统

为了研究高寒区植物生长过程对主要全球气候变化因子[如环境CO2浓度加倍（EC）、环境温度升高（ET）]及其二者组合（ECT）条件下的响应和适应，在青藏高原东缘岷江上游中部的中国科学院成都生物研究所茂县生态站[A（E）103^o53’，φ（N）31^o41’，海拔1820m]建立了一组全封闭的生长室系统．系统由6个独立、自控、封闭的生长室和2个对照组成．本文首先描述了生长室系统的结构和控制原理，然后基于2004年的运行结果，分析了系统的各项指标特征．结果表明：（1）EC和ECT生长室内的CO2浓度在650～800μmol mol^-1之间的时间分别占91．32％和91．67％（目标CO2浓度=环境CO2浓度加倍）；（2）ET和ECT生长室内空气温度升高1．0～3．5℃的时间分别占95．06％和88．73％（目标温度=现行环境温度＋2℃）；（3）生长室内太阳辐射和光合有效辐射强度减少20％～40％的时间分别占90．42％和89．43％．生长室系统能够提供多种与自然环境变量较一致的环境条件，也能提供长期的、稳定的目标环境变量．是研究高寒区植物生长过程对全球气候变化响应和适廊的有效模拟实验系统．     

Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

Abstract:  The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.     

对全球气候变化原因及发展趋势之浅见

分析了引起全球气候变化的各种可能原因，对温室气体、植被破坏、水汽变化等对全球气候变化的影响作了概括总结，阐述了全球气候变化发展趋势及气候变化预测中应注意的问题。     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Current Practices and Future Opportunities for Policy on Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.     

全球气候变化背景下台湾海峡浮游植物的长期变化

为了解气候–海洋环境变异的生态影响,阐述并比较了1984~1985年和2006~2008年台湾海峡浮游植物分布的时空变化特征.结果表明:浮游植物物种多样性指数和均匀度分别由3.29和0.62降至2.90和0.55;平均细胞密度增加3.7倍,由372.0×104 cells/m3增加到173 8.8×104 cells/m3;种类组成里暖水种比例提高了7.3%,由45.9%上升到53.2%;浮游植物主要优势种组成趋于简单和小型化,如小型硅藻柔弱拟菱形藻(Pseudonitzschia delicatissima)和细弱海链藻(Thalassiosira subtilis),其平均丰度和优势度显著提高.浮游植物群落的这些年代际分布变异可看作全球气候长期变暖背景下对台湾海峡环境变化的生态学响应迹象.图3表6参34