Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise

The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1, 2, and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545, 1,286, and 2,125 km² at average rates of 5, 10, and 15 mm yr⁻¹ for 200 years, respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1–0.3% of the total area and of 1.3–5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country, respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers, and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures.     

Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been detailed and localised in extent. There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters – elevation, exposure, aspect and slope, are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. For comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a fine-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a first cut in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in tide-dominated, sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-setting on a regional scale.     

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

The challenge of assessing social dimensions of avoided deforestation: Examples from Cambodia

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD +) has moved to the central stage of the climate change debate by being promoted as a significant, cheap, and quick win–win strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate climate change. In order to be successful in reducing emissions while providing the projected social and environmental co-benefits, REDD + needs to overcome key challenges of insecure forest tenure and inequity in the distribution of benefits. Such challenges threaten to affect the livelihoods and well-being in the local communities and in turn the effectiveness of REDD+. While REDD + programs will affect the participating communities, there is limited knowledge as to what social impacts these projects may bring to the local population. Similarly, assessment of these social dimensions has received little attention until recently, and is consequently out of sync with the realities of REDD + projects.The present paper aims to shed light on the methodological and contextual challenges in the assessment of the social dimensions of REDD+. Some of the main social concerns of REDD + are outlined with an emphasis on the uniqueness and complexity of REDD + interventions. Recently proposed approaches to assess social impacts in REDD + are critically assessed in terms of the diversity of frameworks proposed, choice of social indicators, and data collection requirements. Specifically, these methodological implications are further discussed in the light of the social dimensions and the prescribed regulations of REDD + in a Cambodian context.     

Derivation of no-effect and reference-level sediment quality values for application at Saskatchewan uranium operations

To date, the majority of empirical approaches used to derive sediment quality values (SQVs) have focused on metal concentrations in sediment associated with adverse effects on benthic invertebrate communities. Here, we propose the no-effect (NE) approach. This SQV derivation methodology uses metal concentrations in sediment associated with unaffected benthic communities (i.e., from reference sites and lightly contaminated no-effect sites) and accounts for local benthic invertebrate tolerance and potential chemical interactions at no-effect exposure sites. This NE approach was used to propose alternative regional SQVs for uranium operations in northern Saskatchewan. Three different sets of NE values were derived using different combinations of benthic invertebrate community effects criteria (abundance, richness, evenness, Bray–Curtis index). Additionally, reference values were derived based solely on sediment metal concentrations from reference sites. In general, NE values derived using abundance, richness, and evenness (NE1 and NE2 values) were found to be higher than the NE values derived using all four metrics (NE3 values). Derived NE values for Cr, Cu, Pb, and V did not change with the incorporation of additional effects criteria due to a lack of influence from the uranium operations on the concentrations of these metals in sediment. However, a gradient of exposure concentrations was apparent for As, Mo, Ni, Se, and U in sediment which allowed for tolerable exposure levels of these metals in sediment to be defined. The findings from this assessment have suggested a range of new, alternate metal SQVs for use at uranium operations in northern Saskatchewan.     

Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation.     

Exploring the trade-off between benefit and risk perception of NIMBY facility: A social cognitive theory model

With reference to Social Cognitive Theory, this study contributes to the debate on large-scale energy projects that can be classified as NIMBY developments and their implementation in order to better understand drivers to public acceptance. Public acceptance is essential for the development of typical NIMBY facilities. This study draws on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to investigate the determinants of public acceptance of a NIMBY facility in Wuhan City, China, to explore how the trade-off between the perceived benefit and risk affected public acceptance. Guanshan power substation was selected as the case study, and a questionnaire was presented to 450 local residents. Using a structural equation model, this study revealed that the perceived benefit-risk was positively related to public acceptance. Self-efficacy positively affected public acceptance via the perceived benefit-risk. Furthermore, the social environment exerted a significant positive effect on public acceptance, self-efficacy and perceived benefit-risk. These findings highlight the importance of improving the social environment and taking perceived benefit-risk into account during the decision-making process for similar developments.     

Moving from reactive to proactive development planning to conserve Indigenous community and biodiversity values

There is increased awareness of the need to balance multiple societal values in land use and development planning. Best practice has promoted the use of landscape-level conservation planning and application of the ‘mitigation hierarchy’, which focuses on avoiding, minimizing or compensating for impacts of development projects. However, environmental impact assessments (EIA) typically focus in a reactive way on single project footprints with an emphasis on environmental values and specifically biodiversity. This separation may miss opportunities to jointly plan for and manage impacts to both environmental and social values. Integrated approaches may have particular benefit in northern Australia, where Indigenous people have native title to as much as 60% of the land area and cultural values are closely linked with natural values. Here, we present a novel framework for integrating biodiversity and cultural values to facilitate use in EIA processes, using the Nyikina Mangala Native Title Determination Area in the Kimberley, Western Australia, as a case study. We demonstrate 1) how social and cultural values can be organized and analyzed spatially to support mitigation planning, 2) how social, cultural, and biodiversity values may reinforce each other to deliver better conservation outcomes and minimize conflict, and 3) how this information, in the hands of Indigenous communities, provides capacity to proactively assess development proposals and negotiate mitigation measures to conserve social, cultural, and biodiversity values following the mitigation hierarchy. Based on values defined through a Healthy Country Planning process, we developed spatial datasets to represent cultural/heritage sites, freshwater features, common native animals and plants represented by biophysical habitat types, and legally-protected threatened and migratory species represented by potential habitat models. Both cultural/heritage sites and threatened species habitat show a strong thematic and spatial link with freshwater features, particularly the Fitzroy River wetlands. We outline some of the challenges and opportunities of this process and its implications for the Northern Australia development agenda.     

The social impact assessment model and the planning process

Social impact assessment developed along with environmental impact assessment during the early 1970s as a methodological tool with which to better understand the consequences of environmental alteration and as an input to environmental impact statements. The idea was that if adverse social, economic, and physical effects of development were known in advance, they could either be mediated or eliminated.For the most part, the assessment of biological and economic impacts has become a required input into every stage in the planning process. However, social changes are not always arrayed alongside economic, biological, and landuse changes in the matrix that leads to the final decision.The major difficulty in the application of SIA process has been in identifying and measuring the social impacts that occur with each project. Even if important social impacts were identified, few procedures have been developed for measuring their significance. When either social costs or benefits to local communities are arrayed against regional and national economic goals, social concerns generally finish a distant second. Social science research must establish that the effects on human populations alone are significant enough to alter the outcome of the decision process.     

A model for the maximum credible hourly impact on any ground receptor from point sources with momentumdominated plume rise

A pollutant dispersion model is developed, allowing rapid evaluation of the maximum credible one-hour-average concentration on any given ground-level receptor, along with the corresponding critical meteorological conditions (wind speed and stability class) for stacks with momentum-dominated plume rise in urban or rural areas under buoyancy or no buoyancy induced dispersion. Site-specific meteorological data are not required, as the computed concentrations are maximized against all credible combinations of wind speed, stability class, and mixing height.The analysis is based on the dispersion relations of Pasquill-Gifford and Briggs for rural and urban settings respectively, the buoyancy induced dispersion correlation of Pasquill, the wind profile exponent values suggested by Irwin, the momentum plume rise relations of Briggs, as well as the Benkley and Schulman's model for the minimum mixing heights.The model is particularly suited for air pollution management studies, as it allows fast screening of the maximum impact on any selected receptor and evaluation of the ways to have this impact reduced. Also, for regulatory purposes, as it allows accurate setting of minimum stack height requirements as function of the exit gas volume and velocity, the pollutant emission rates and their hourly concentration standards, as well as the source location relative to sensitive receptors.     

Renewable energy from solid waste: life cycle analysis and social welfare

In this study, municipal solid waste (MSW) composition in distinct world locations is compared and a case study is assessed. Three waste-to-energy (WtE) techniques are employed within the framework of an industrial partnership. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and a brief social contextualization including the production of renewable energy from the waste generated worldwide were held to attain a holistic view and attract the interest of multiple stakeholders.Incineration depicted a sustainable profile with improved results for global warming potential and terrestrial ecotoxicity potential. Regular gasification revealed the best results for eutrophication, acidification, marine aquatic ecotoxicity and human toxicity potential. Two-stage plasma gasification showed negative values for all impact categories i.e. achieving environmental credits. The estimate of the electricity produced from the waste generated per capita showed a fair coverage of the electrical demand in distinct world areas.To the best of the authors' knowledge, there are no reports connecting the electricity use, the waste production and the renewable energy achieved from WtE for different world regions. Therefore, this study supports the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable alternatives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining the comfort and commodities suitable for a comfortable quality of life.