MONITORING SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER IN PUERTO RICO: FIELD MEASUREMENTS AND REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT: The spatial distribution of suspended particulatematter (SPM) was estimated in Mayagüez Bay on the west coast of Puerto Rico by using traditional ship board measurements and remotely sensed data acquired over four days during January 1990. This effort was part of a joint project between NASA and the University of Puerto Rico to develop techniques to monitor the water quality of a Caribbean coastal zone. This paper presents the methods and algorithms developed to map and analyze short term changes in the source and spatial distribution of SPM in Mayagüez Bay by using remotely sensed data acquired by the Calibrated Airborne Multispectral Scanner (CAMS). A PC-based data acquisition system was developed to record continuous ship measurements of select in- water variables. Spectral reflectances derived from CAMS red and near-IR data were corrected for atmospheric effects and then used to generate maps of SPM. These maps displayed SPM plumes associated with the mouths of the bay's three river systems. Significant day-to-day differences in the spatial characteristics were observed, suggesting that changes in river discharge occurred. However, an analysis of estimated river discharge, sediment yield, local wind field, and thermal river plume indicates that observed sediment plumes result primarily from wind-driven resuspension events.     

A Model for Predicting Daily Peak Visitation and Implications for Recreation Management and Water Quality: Evidence from Two Rivers in Puerto Rico

Visitor use surveys and water quality data indicates that high visitor use levels of two rivers in Puerto Rico does not appear to adversely affect several water quality parameters. Optimum visitor use to maximize visitor defined satisfaction is a more constraining limit on visitor use than water quality. Our multiple regression analysis suggests that visitor use of about 150 visitors per day yields the highest level of visitor reported satisfaction, a level that does not appear to affect turbidity of the river. This high level of visitor use may be related to the gregarious nature of Puerto Ricans and their tolerance for crowding on this densely populated island. The daily peak visitation model indicates that regulating the number of parking spaces may be the most effective way to keep visitor use within the social carrying capacity.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF LAND PROCESSES IN PUERTO RICO USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA1

ABSTRACT: An integrated, multi-disciplinary effort to model land processes affecting Mayaguez Bay in western Puerto Rico is described. A modeling strategy was developed to take advantage of remotely sensed data. The spatial, interannual, and seasonal variability of sediment discharges to the bay were also evaluated. Classified images of remotely sensed data revealed the spatial distribution and quantities of land use classes in the region and aided in the discretization of the watershed into homogeneous regions. These regions were modeled using a geomorphic modeling technique based upon spatially averaged parameters. Simulation results from the modeling effort compared favorably with observations at two locations within the watershed. Results showed that runoff and sediment loads from the area exhibit a marked seasonal trend and that deforested areas located in the foothill regions of the watershed contribute a disproportionate share of the sediment load to the bay. In years when rainfall distributions are uniformly distributed over the area, the sediment yields may be up to 100 percent higher than years when the rainfall is concentrated in the heavily forested mountainous regions.     

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY AND PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PUERTO RICO1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate analyses were used to develop equations that could predict certain water quality (WQ) conditions for unmonitored watersheds in Puerto Rico based on their physical characteristics. Long term WQ data were used to represent the WQ of 15 watersheds in Puerto Rico. A factor analysis (FA) was performed to reduce the number of chemical constituents. Cluster analysis (CA) was used to group watersheds with similar WQ characteristics. Finally, a discriminant analysis (DA) was performed to relate the WQ clusters to different physical parameters and generate predicting equations. The FA identified six factors (77 percent of variation explained): nutrients, dissolved ions, sodium and chloride, silicacious geology, red ox conditions, and discharge. From the FA, specific conductance, sodium, phosphorous, silica, and dissolved oxygen were selected to represent the WQ characteristics in the CA. The CA determined five groups of watersheds (forested, urban polluted, mixed urban/rural, forested plutonic, and limestone) with similar WQ properties. From the five WQ clusters, two categories can be observed: forested and urban watersheds. The DA found that changes in forest cover, percent of limestone, mean annual rainfall, and watershed shape factor were the most important physical features affecting the WQ of watersheds in Puerto Rico.     

Affordable technologies for utilization of methane in a landfill environment: An example of an integrated technology array and evolving institutional networks

CARIBELATE, the Caribbean Environmental Laboratory for the Advancement of Technological Entrepreneurship is an evolving institutional concept, as well as a physical complex, that provides a dynamic environment for public, academic and private sector organizations to conduct proof of concept technology demonstrations in a landfill environment. This article traces the successful networking of demonstrations at a landfill in New Jersey and the subsequent design of the CARIBELATE project in the Municipality of Carolina, Puerto Rico. The institutional model developed for the Puerto Rico facility has brought together an unlikely combination of stakeholders. Those from the private sector, here called industrial partners, are paired with academic researchers to optimize products for local markets. The basic technology system demonstrated in New Jersey and to be replicated in Puerto Rico removes harmful contaminants from landfill gas and in so doing produces a variety of useful products. A portion of the landfill gas is utilized for micro‐turbine electricity generation and for heating a demonstration greenhouse that houses aquaculture coupled with hydroponic crop production, where aquaculture effluents are recycled as plant nutrients. A strict protocol to verify emission reduction is imposed on all the demonstrations at the CARIBELATE project. Although greenhouse gas credit verification is not the prime mission, it is suggested that the credits verified from these demonstrations are of high quality, and can serve as an excellent training platform. CARIBELATE is conceived to be operated at the municipal level and contribute to income generation and economic development. The continuing networking of stakeholders from the public and private sectors offers some potential guidance for replicating this design in the developing world.     

The role of scientific studies in building consensus in environmental decision making: a coral reef example

We present a new approach for characterizing the potential of scientific studies to reduce conflict among stakeholders in an analytic-deliberative environmental decision-making process. The approach computes a normalized metric, the Expected Consensus Index of New Research (ECINR), for identifying where additional scientific research will best support improved decisions and resolve possible conflicts over preferred management actions. The ECINR reflects the expected change in agreement among parties over preferred management actions with the implementation and consideration of new scientific studies. We demonstrate the ECINR method based on a preliminary application to coral reef protection and restoration in the Guánica Bay Watershed, Puerto Rico, focusing on assessing and managing anthropogenic stressors, including sedimentation and pollution from land-based sources such as sewage, agriculture, and development. Structured elicitations of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef decision support workshop held at La Parguera, Puerto Rico, are used to develop information for illustrating the methodology. The ECINR analysis was focused on a final study group of seven stakeholders, consisting of resource managers and scientists, who were not in agreement on the efficacy and respective benefits of reducing loadings from three sources: sewage, agriculture, and development. The scenario assumed that loadings would be reduced incrementally from each source through a series of management steps, which would be ranked in order of maximizing anticipated benefits. An examination of whether beliefs exhibited greater confidence and coherence between stakeholders when informed by plausible study results followed. The results suggest that new scientific research would be generally likely to bring people who initially disagreed to agree. Seventy-five percent of the hypothetical research results were projected to result in more agreement among the stakeholders. However, there can be situations where prior beliefs may be too different from the study results to shift perspectives enough to result in more agreement. Furthermore, in a few cases, hypothetical research results were projected to lead to more conflict among stakeholders. Priority research, according to the seven stakeholders, would be to quantify loadings from agriculture and sewage, and not loadings from development, since it is predicted to make little difference in the outcome. Assuming the stakeholders are conflict-averse, they would likely opt for research on sewage loadings as the highest priority. Though preliminary, these results suggest that ECINR can provide useful insights into the social implications of a research program.     

Lakes,Wetlands, and Streams as Predictors of Land Use/Cover Distribution

The importance of the surrounding landscape to aquatic ecosystems has been well established. Most research linking aquatic ecosystems to landscapes has focused on the one-way effect of land on water. However, to understand fully the complex interactions between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems must be seen not only as receptors of human modification of the landscape, but also as potential drivers of these modifications. We hypothesized that the presence of aquatic ecosystems influences the spatial distribution of human land use/cover of the nearby landscape (≤1 km) and that this influence has changed through time from the 1930s to the 1990s. To test this hypothesis, we compared the distribution of residential, agricultural, and forested land use/cover around aquatic ecosystems (lakes, wetlands, and streams) to the overall regional land use/cover proportion in an area in southeast Michigan, USA; we also compared the distribution of land use/cover around county roads/highway and towns (known determinants of many land use/cover patterns) to the regional proportion. We found that lakes, wetlands, and streams were strongly associated with the distribution of land use/cover, that each ecosystem type showed different patterns, and that the magnitude of the association was at least as strong as the association with human features. We also found that the area closest to aquatic ecosystems (<500 m) was more strongly associated with land use/cover distribution than areas further away. Finally, we found that the strength of the association between aquatic ecosystems and land use/cover increased from 1938 to 1995, although the overall patterns were similar through time. Our results show that a more complete understanding is needed of the role of aquatic ecosystems on the distribution of land use/cover.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING WITH REMOTELY SENSED DATABASES1

ABSTRACT: An integrated remotely sensed database was used as the basis for a hydrologic and sediment transport modeling effort for an agricultural area of western Puerto Rico. Classified spectral images of airborne radiance data provided ground cover information and were used in conjunction with topographic and soils data to guide model construction and provide input to the water balance and sediment yield simulations. Runoff and sediment discharge from hydrologically homogeneous regions were routed through the drainage network and combined at the basin outlet. The model was used to simulate four years of observed sediment discharge from the basin. Relative contributions to the total sediment yield of forested and agricultural areas were determined and compared.     

Environment and industrialization in Puerto Rico: disenfranchising the people

This paper explores the effects of industrialization policy on environmental regulation in Puerto Rico, focusing on implementation of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) review process. Adopted in 1970, the EIS process has been transformed to pave the way for extensive use of a concise, alternative mechanism for analysing project environmental impacts, one with less opportunity for public input. This policy shift, virtually replacing the full‐scale EIS, occurred as a way to mediate the conflict between environmental policy and industrialization policy. Formal public participation in environmental decision‐making became the target of reform by the Puerto Rican Government because it perceived that public review was interfering with the location of industry.     

The Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Pattern of Rural Residential Land in China in the 1990s Using Landsat TM Images and GIS

Through interpreting Landsat TM images, this study analyzes the spatial distribution of rural settlements in China in 2000. It calculates rural residential land percentage for every 1-km² cell. The entire country is divided into 33 regions to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of rural residential land during the 1990s. According to the remote sensing survey, the rural residential land increased by 7.88 × 10⁵ ha in the 1990s. The increment of rural residential land was 0.55 million ha in 1990–1995 and 0.23 million ha in 1995–2000. In 1990–1995, rural residential land increased dramatically in the eastern regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain, accounting for 80.80% of the national growth; the expansion in the western regions was much more moderate. In 1995–2000, the expansion of rural residential land in eastern regions slowed, accounting for only 58.54% of the increase at the national level, whereas the expansion in the western regions accelerated. Rapid rural residential development resulted from increasing home construction and the limited control on rural land. The great regional disparity reflected the regional economic development and land-use policy change. Our finding shows that nearly 60% of the rural residential area came from cropland.     

REGIONAL IMPACT OF WATER RESOURCE INVESTMENTS IN A DEVELOPING AREA1

ABSTRACT: Regional development and industrialization patterns are investigated and related via regression analysis to water resource investments for the island of Puerto Rico. Although results of this study indicate such investments have little immediate or short-term impact, significant relationships and variations in regional responses appear over longer time periods. This is shown by applying a variation of Zellner's method of performing seemingly unrelated regressions jointly. By this method, subsets of parameter coefficients of specific economic variables were restricted across regional equations while unrestricted coefficients were interpreted as explaining systematic regional variations in response to public investment. Regional differences, obtained by using this method, are frequently neglected when simply examining the overall development process. Among the more interesting results in terms of policy implications is the apparent significant relationship, over the period considered, between changes in the distribution of income and the pattern of water resource development.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of fire events in India: implications for environmental conservation

Information on fires in different geographic regions of India is relatively scarce. This study quantifies spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrences covering different states and districts in India. Two important scientific questions are answered in this study: (1) how are the fire events distributed across different geographical regions? (2) are there any specific districts where fire events clustered across space and time? To address these questions, Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) derived satellite fire counts from 1997–2006 were used and the datasets were analysed using spatial scan statistic. Spatial scan statistic provides a test statistic for most likely ‘hotspot’ spatial clusters, based on the likelihood ratio test and Monte Carlo simulation. Results from geographical analysis based on state boundaries suggested Maharastra state had the highest number of fires followed by Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Orissa, etc., during the 10-year period. Among the several districts, the spatial scan statistic identified the most likely cluster of fire events in Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur, Bharatpur and Alwar in addition to several other secondary clusters, with high statistical significance. These results are based on a large sample of cases, and they provide convincing evidence of spatial clustering of fire events in the Indian region. Results relating to hotspot areas of fire risk can guide policy makers towards the best management strategies for avoiding damages to forests, human life and personal property in the ‘hotspot’ districts.     

Spatio-temporal modeling of benthic biological species

The spatial and temporal distribution of the number of benthic species located in an important area under ecological stress (Puerto CALICA, Quintana Roo, Mexico) is analyzed by means of Gaussian Spatial Linear Mixed Models. Following a model-based approach we derive spatial predictions taking into account temporal variations between May 1996 and June 1999. The proposed models were evaluated in terms of their ability to detect the underlying spatial structure for further interpolation. Uncertainty in the prediction could be evaluated by using the Bayesian paradigm. The results can be used as a guide for further environmental management policies in the region.     

Recreation benefits of natural area characteristics at the El Yunque National Forest

The paper applies the Contingent Valuation Method using a visitor survey to determine trip values to three rivers in northeastern Puerto Rico. Sample data were obtained from 984 interviews conducted in 13 sites during the summer months. The trip value is statistically decomposed into components representing natural features and recreation activities. The median net economic value of a river visit without waterfalls or foot trails is $96. Recreation at rivers with both waterfalls and foot trails has a median value of $138 per trip. The presence of waterfalls accounts for $23 and foot trails $19 per trip. This information can be pertinent for managers in selecting recreation site locations and protecting them from competing uses.     

Stochastic Transfer Function Model and Neural Networks to Estimate Soil Moisture1

Abstract: A practical methodology is proposed to estimate the three‐dimensional variability of soil moisture based on a stochastic transfer function model, which is an approximation of the Richard’s equation. Satellite, radar and in situ observations are the major sources of information to develop a model that represents the dynamic water content in the soil. The soil‐moisture observations were collected from 17 stations located in Puerto Rico (PR), and a sequential quadratic programming algorithm was used to estimate the parameters of the transfer function (TF) at each station. Soil texture information, terrain elevation, vegetation index, surface temperature, and accumulated rainfall for every grid cell were input into a self‐organized artificial neural network to identify similarities on terrain spatial variability and to determine the TF that best resembles the properties of a particular grid point. Soil moisture observed at 20 cm depth, soil texture, and cumulative rainfall were also used to train a feedforward artificial neural network to estimate soil moisture at 5, 10, 50, and 100 cm depth. A validation procedure was implemented to measure the horizontal and vertical estimation accuracy of soil moisture. Validation results from spatial and temporal variation of volumetric water content (vwc) showed that the proposed algorithm estimated soil moisture with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.31% vwc, and the vertical profile shows a RMSE of 2.50% vwc. The algorithm estimates soil moisture in an hourly basis at 1 km spatial resolution, and up to 1 m depth, and was successfully applied under PR climate conditions.     

A “Practical” Ethic for Animals

Drawing on the features of “practical philosophy” described by Toulmin (1990), a “practical” ethic for animals would be rooted in knowledge of how people affect animals, and would provide guidance on the diverse ethical concerns that arise. Human activities affect animals in four broad ways: (1) keeping animals, for example, on farms and as companions, (2) causing intentional harm to animals, for example through slaughter and hunting, (3) causing direct but unintended harm to animals, for example by cropping practices and vehicle collisions, and (4) harming animals indirectly by disturbing life-sustaining processes and balances of nature, for example by habitat destruction and climate change. The four types of activities raise different ethical concerns including suffering, injury, deprivation, and death (of individuals), decline of populations, disruption of ecological systems containing animals, and extinction of species. They also vary in features relevant to moral evaluation and decision-making; these include the number of animals affected, the duration of the effects, the likelihood of irreversible effects, and the degree to which the effects can be controlled. In some cases human actions can also provide benefits to animals such as shelter and health care. Four mid-level principles are proposed to make a plausible fit to the features of the four types of human activities and to address the major ethical concerns that arise. The principles are: (1) to provide good lives for the animals in our care, (2) to treat suffering with compassion, (3) to be mindful of unseen harm, and (4) to protect the life-sustaining processes and balances of nature. This “practical” approach arguably makes a better fit to the complex, real-life problems of animal ethics than the single foundational principles that have dominated much recent animal ethics philosophy.     

Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTRIBUTING CAUSES OF AN ABNORMAL FREQUENCY OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINSTORMS AT CHICAGO1

ABSTRACT: Major hydrometeorological factors pertinent to defining and understanding the hydrologic characteristics of urban and other small-basin storms were investigated using data from a continuous 44-year operation of a recording raingage network in Chicago. Factors included: the frequency distribution of basin mean rainfall and its relation to storm maximum precipitation; the spatial distribution characteristics of each storm, including storm rainfall reduction factors which are widely used in hydrologic design problems; and weather-related causes related to the frequency and intensity of severe rainstorms in the Chicago area in recent years. Results have indicated that urban mean rainfall frequencies were overestimated in earlier studies in which they were derived from point/areal mean rainfall ratios obtained from much shorter records on rural networks. Reduction factors were found to vary between urban and rural storm systems due to urban-related effects. Two factors were found to be potential contributors to the characteristics of severe rainstorm occurrences at Chicago. These include urban-induced rain enhancement and an upward climatic trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events during the sampling period. Study results should be generally applicable to other large urban areas in the Midwest and other regions of similar precipitation climate.     

旅游型城镇旅游公共服务体系空间分布特征及其优化策略——以南岳镇为例

基于南岳镇旅游公共服务的实地调查,采用GIS空间分析和数据统计方法分析南岳镇旅游公共服务体系构成要素的空间分布特征和优化策略.结果表明,南岳镇旅游公共服务体系在地理空间上呈现“千”字形布局;旅游公共服务体系集聚水平的类型和空间差异明显;旅游公共服务体系空间集聚的时序差异显著;提出应以祝融南路为轴线,建设旅游服务综合体;结合镇区旧城改造,实现旅游服务功能分区;实施旅游信息化工程,提升旅游接待服务体系的优化策略.