Effects of the tsunami on fisheries and coastal livelihood: a case study of tsunami-ravaged southern Sri Lanka

Beyond the death toll, the tsunami of 26 December 2004 crippled many of the livelihood assets (human, social, physical, financial and natural) available to assist those directly affected. Drawing on surveys of three villages in three districts in the south of Sri Lanka, this paper describes the livelihood asset building capacity of the fishing communities. Assessments are also made of the impact of the tsunami on coastal communities and the impact of government policy on rebuilding. A livelihood asset score was calculated for each village by comparing their strengths in capacity building. In all aspects of capital building, including human, social, financial, physical and natural capital, the fishing community in Tangalle was significantly ahead of the fishing communities in Hikkaduwa and Weligama. Experienced fishermen with better educational backgrounds had a significant influence on the capacity building of livelihood assets. Relocation and resettlement plans brought persistent uncertainty to fishermen in Hikkaduwa and Weligama and threatened to disrupt their community bonds and social networks.     

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.     

二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究

根据一般均衡分析的思想,构建了一个二要素多部门的可计算一般均衡模型,用以分析和计算自然灾害的发生对经济系统的影响,研究结果表明,灾害的三种不同直接经济损失对经济系统的间接影响是不同的,一次具体的自然灾害的经济影响是三种损失后果的综合。     

福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究

基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。     

The plight of some of the poorest of the poor: vulnerabilities of fishing families on Kutubdia Island,Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

Globally, fisheries are important economic resources and support many coastal communities, but the people that rely on fishing experience a range of environmental hazards. This research surveyed 300 fishing households on Kutubdia Island, Bangladesh, regarding their fishing activities and the conditions and perceptions of risk while fishing at sea. This is an artisanal fishery of small boats used for day trips, and larger but still simple boats used for multi-day trips farther offshore. Many households (62%) reported sickness or health problems while at sea. Medicine or first aid kits are carried by only 35% of the boats. Hazards encountered at sea included bad weather (69%), pirates (60%), unfriendly encounters with larger boats (20%), and engine failure (13%). The 300 households reported that 109 fishers had been lost at sea during the past 21 years. From this we estimate an annual death rate of 1335 per 100,000 fishers here, making it among the most dangerous in the world. Bangladesh needs a regulatory framework for its fisheries to include environmental, economic, political, cultural, and social components. Such a regulatory arrangement would support the Kutubdia fishers and should be incorporated into Bangladesh’s national policy for achieving its sustainability goals.     

Effects of the Bam earthquake on employment: a shift-share analysis

Disasters have potential short-term and long-term impacts on employment and employment structures in affected regions. While measuring the full economic impact of a disaster requires sophisticated econometrics and mathematical simulations, conventional regional economic models such as shift-share analysis can be used to assess some of these effects. This paper applies shift-share analysis to understand potential long-term impacts of disasters on employment using the December 2003 Bam earthquake as a case study. The results provide further evidence that disasters could have significant long-term effects on the employment structure of affected regions.     

Early socio-political and environmental consequences of the Prestige oil spill in Galicia

The controversial form in which the oil industry is run has once more caused a huge disaster--this one affecting the Galician coastal environment and economy. Oil-spill clean-up operations have been managed in Europe with some success but with considerable economic, environmental and social costs. The oil industry often avoids fully or even partially compensating those affected. The lack of both political will and political power has let the culprit (the oil industry) off the hook. This paper considers the spill of the Prestige to assess whether the balance of power between affected people and the oil industry can be changed. The paper examines the growing awareness of environmental issues among ordinary people in Spain, through the massive involvement of volunteers concerned with the damage done to the environment and to the livelihoods of fishing communities in Galicia. To understand these growing public concerns and the strength of opinion, the paper examines the details of the decisions taken by the central Spanish and local governments and the way these have informed the clean-up operations, the character of the oil companies involved and the feeling of impotence in the face of such disasters. The conclusion here is that the operations of the oil industry should be tightly regulated through EU legislation, and that this can come about as a result of organised political pressure from those affected by the oil spill, from the mass of volunteers, as well as from public opinion at large.     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

Post-disaster community tourism recovery: the tsunami and Arugam Bay, Sri Lanka

Tourism is highly vulnerable to external, non-controllable events. A natural disaster can affect the local tourism industry in numerous ways, and such events are particularly devastating for small communities whose local economy is heavily dependent on the sector. Loss of infrastructure plus negative media stories can have long-term ramifications for the destination. In spite of the economic importance of tourism, post-disaster recovery efforts in this sector are often overlooked by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), which focus on more traditional livelihoods such as agriculture or fishing. This paper describes Mercy Corps' support of tourism recovery activities in Arugam Bay, a remote village on the east coast of Sri Lanka, following the 2004 tsunami. The local economic base is built largely on two sectors: community tourism and fishing. As many other actors were supporting recovery in the local fishing industry, Mercy Corps concentrated on revitalising the tourism sector.     

Post‐tsunami relocation of fisher settlements in South Asia: evidence from the Coromandel Coast,India

The tsunami that struck the coasts of India on 26 December 2004 resulted in the large‐scale destruction of fisher habitations. The post‐tsunami rehabilitation effort in Tamil Nadu was directed towards relocating fisher settlements in the interior. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study on the social effects of relocation in a sample of nine communities along the Coromandel Coast. It concludes that, although the participation of fishing communities in house design and in allocation procedures has been limited, many fisher households are satisfied with the quality of the facilities. The distance of the new settlements to the shore, however, is regarded as an impediment to engaging in the fishing profession, and many fishers are actually moving back to their old locations. This raises questions as to the direction of coastal zone policy in India, as well as to the weight accorded to safety (and other coastal development interests) vis‐à‐vis the livelihood needs of fishers.     

云南地区地震灾害损失的基本特征

云南是我国地震灾害损失最为严重的地区之一。地震灾害损失评估标准实施以来，云南地区积累了较丰富的地震灾害损失评估资料。以1992～2001年云南地区破坏性地震的灾害损失评估资料为基础，分析了地震灾害损失随时间的变化特征，初步探讨了地震震级与受灾人口、人员伤亡和地震灾害经济损失等方面的关系。结果表明：(1)随着社会经济的不断发展和社会财富的不断积累，等同地震能量所造成的经济损失呈逐渐增大的趋势；(2)在空间上，由于各灾区的经济发展状况不同，等同地震能量所造成的灾害损失存在着地区差异性；(3)地震灾害损失随震级增大而增大，但二者之间并非简单的线性关系，其中生命线工程及其它特殊工程结构、重大工程设施、大型企业等的经济损失随震级的增大而以更大的比例增大。     

基于验证性因素分析的台风风暴潮灾害经济损失影响因子优化分析

建立客观有效的指标体系是精准估算台风风暴潮灾害经济损失的途径之一。本文以广东省为案例研究区,用验证性因素分析方法对影响灾害经济损失的危险性、脆弱性、抗灾能力3类风险要素进行指标甄别遴选,并将研究区按照经济发展条件分为3个时段,分别分析不同时段内各个风险要素指标的变化。研究表明,对于不同时段,各风险要素的影响指标变化不大,但与风险要素的关联程度会有差异。与传统的指标体系构建相比,本文结合历史案例构建备选指标更具有事实依据,并且利用验证性因素分析方法进行指标遴选,排除了人为主观因素的干扰,增强了指标与研究对象的关联度,减少了指标冗余,使得结果更具有合理性、科学性,为指标体系的研究提供了一个新的思路。     

灾体模型的拓展及其在主要气象灾害损失年景评价中的应用

该文拓展了面向气象灾害损失评价的灾体模型,使得其适用性增强.基于新模型,对2003-2018年我国主要气象灾害损失及总损失年景进行了评价分析,结果显示,存在极端偏重灾害损失年景的有暴雨洪涝(2003、2010年)、台风(2005、2006年)、低温冷冻害和雪灾(2005、2008年),另外各气象灾害偏重及以上的年景主要...     

1994／1995全球重大自然灾害的统计分析

１９９４／１９９５年是６０年代以来全球自然灾害经济损失最大的两年。作者根据收集到的信息，对全球这两年的重大自然灾害的分布及灾情作了统计。结果表明，９０年代全球重大自然灾害的经济和保险损失存在上升趋势。最后，对其成因进行了分析     

灾害与经济增长关系的定量分析

本文以哈罗德－多马经济增长模型为基础，初步估计了灾害直接损失对经济增长率的影响。并由此导出了一个计算灾害间接经济损失的方法，为从宏观的角度分析灾害损失与经济增长的关系提供了一种思路。     

“一带一路”沿线国家台风灾害关联经济损失研究--以2018年“山竹”台风灾害为例

经济全球化背景下,各区域的产业关联强度增加,灾害链也日益复杂,对“一带一路”沿线国家及其部门带来了深远的影响。该文梳理了台风灾害损失传导机制,运用多区域投入产出模型(Multiregional Inputoutput Model,MRIO),以2018年“山竹”台风为例,量化分析“一带一路”沿线20个国家24个部门的关联损失情况。研究认为:①2018年“山竹”台风对我国各部门造成的直接损失约为142.31亿元,间接经济损失达到1272.73亿元;②“山竹”台风灾害对沿线其他国家带来的关联损失为1232.13亿元,其中受影响最严重的是菲律宾;③部门关联损失最大的是制造业,其间接损失是直接损失的60倍。     

北京市酸雨变化趋势及成因分析

1993-2002年中国气象局酸雨观测站网在北京地区有两个观测站,2003年增至3个。根据北京3个酸雨观测站的有关资料,研究了北京市酸雨变化的特征及成因。研究结果表明:第一,1993-2007年北京地区降水酸度呈现两个阶段,即1993-2002年降水酸度稳定在较弱水平,而2003-2008年呈逐年增强趋势。第二,与2003年以前相比,2003年以后硫酸根和硝酸根离子浓度均呈明显增加趋势,二者比值逐步下降并低于3,这表明北京乃至华北地区的酸雨已由硫酸型转为硫酸与硝酸并重型。第三,北京周边省、市二氧化硫年排放量的增加及钙离子和可吸入颗粒物浓度减少是近年来北京地区酸雨增强的人为原因。第四,气象条件是酸雨发生的主要动力因素。一般情况下,在地面风速较小的季节酸雨频率较高,850hPa高度为弱的偏南风或发生低层逆温时可促进酸雨的发生。此外降水量的大小也与酸雨有密切关系,24 h降水量达暴雨量级时酸雨频率最高。     

风险评价技术在2003年"7.11"泥石流灾害评价中的应用

四川省甘孜州丹巴县巴底乡邛山沟于2003年7月11日晚暴发罕见泥石流,给当地造成巨大的人员和财产损失.本文以邛山沟泥石流为研究对象,通过灾害形成背景以及泥石流灾害特征的研究,采用单沟泥石流风险评价的技术方法,对邛山沟“7.11“泥石流灾害进行了风险评价,提出了减灾和防治措施.     

The socioeconomic effects of a landslide in Western Washington

Abstract

Landslides can create permanently unstable sites that cannot be repaired or developed, and as a result, can cause severe economic and social consequences for families and communities. This study examines the economic and social effects of a landslide that struck Western Washington in February 1999. Two years after the landslide, property owners completed a confidential questionnaire. Property owners experienced significant personal financial losses and received little financial assistance to recover. Most (93%) did not receive any relief from their insurance policies, and 7% received only temporary rental assistance. Participants reported a variety of monetary and personal losses that were associated with emotional distress. They also reported a variety of gains and new perspectives on life. In this paper, we consider mechanisms to reduce the economic losses of landslides as well as implications and future research directions.     

地震灾害经济损失估算与预测方法

本文通过对地震造成的社会环境物理破坏损失以及这种物理破坏导致的经济领域损失的分析，研究了直接经济损失预测方法，给出了地震人员死亡率和直接经济损失率的相关统计关系；并根据两种不同的经济分析模型，提出了地震灾害间接经济损失预测方法：经济计量模式和投入产出方法。