Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

Enhancing biomass energy use in Kenya

This paper argues that in Kenya, environmental and economic factors will favour the continued use of biomass as a primary fuel for household and institutional cooking for the next decade or longer. The paper describes several successful projects which have improved the efficiency of urban charcoal use and of rural woodfuel use. The Kenya Ceramic Jiko, a more efficient version of the traditional charcoal stove, is a model programme sustained by free market competition, artisans participation, and widespread public acceptance. The Maendeleo stove is the best example of a successful rural woodstove project. The performance attributes of the stove, and its promotion through Kenya's largest women's organization, have resulted in the distribution of an estimated 26 000 Maendeleo stoves. Rural stove efficiency will become important as the cash-based economy expands in those areas. Agroforestry will also be critical to an enhanced use of biomass energy in Kenya. Experience to date shows that successful agroforestry programmes will have to be appropriate to local conditions and crops .     

WOODFUEL - A TIME FOR RE-ASSESSMENT

Official statistics and surveys show that woodfuel is the dominant end-use of forest products especially in developing countries. This paper examines the end-use pattern and per capita consumption figures for selected developing countries. In terms of total energy requirements woodfuel, a renewable resource, is the third most important fuel after oil and coal, but may be the primary fuel in terms of number of actual consumers. The future consumption pattern is estimated for the developing and developed countries and it is anticipated that total woodfuel consumption may increase by about 2 per cent per year at least until the year 2000. The supply position shows that while present consumption of all forest products is more or less in balance with the increment of the growing stock, in certain areas the forest capital is being depleted to meet demand. Total demand is likely to double by the turn of the century. Therefore, plantations, especially of fuelwood, will have to be established if the growing stock is not to be depleted and if an energy crisis in developing countries is to be averted.     

Evaluating China's Slope Land Conversion Program as sustainable management in Tianquan and Wuqi Counties

Increased soil erosion on sloped land has become a significant environmental concern in China that has been attributed to human activities such as deforestation, over-cultivation, and over-grazing of livestock. In order to reduce soil erosion on sloped lands, the Chinese government has responded by implementing large-scale, ecological rehabilitation programs, including the "Grain for Green" reforestation project. This program involves financial incentives to transition farmers into other economic activities with the goal of reducing ecological pressures and degradation. Because of the scope and potential impacts from these programs, detailed research is needed to understand their social and ecological effects. This paper reports on research conducted in Tianquan County, Sichuan Province, and Wuqi County, Shaanxi Province, that evaluates the effects of the program upon local economies and household livelihood systems. The paper argues that the successful conversion of farmland under "Grain for Green" depends upon local government involvement, local economic development, and funding for local projects. Without economic development within rural economies, we conclude that farmers will remain dependent upon continued subsidy assistance to meet the policy's ambitious environmental restrictions, thereby undermining the program's long-term sustainability.     

Fuel substitution in sub-Saharan Africa

Deforestation and decline in agricultural productivity are major concerns over large parts of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the principal causes for both these phenomena is the export of woodfuels from rural agroecosystems to urban markets. This process is noteworthy because of the size of the trade. Wood fuels (fuelwood, charcoal, and agricultural residues) constitute the most important source of energy in these countries, varying from 60% to 95% of total energy consumption. In terms of the environmental impact of the fuelwood trade, solutions typically considered are the introduction of improved cookstoves, fuelwood plantations, and fuel substitution by conventional fuels. This article examines the structure of the fuelwood problem, reviews the successes and failures of past experiences, and focuses on the potential for fuel substitution as an option to reduce the urban demand for fuelwood.     

Scrap tires to crumb rubber: feasibility analysis for processing facilities

Crumb rubber can be produced from scrap tires in a wide range of particle sizes and quality levels. Ideally, the revenue stream includes tipping fees paid to receive the raw materials; sales of variously-sized crumb products to different end-user markets; and potential sales of scrap metal and fiber contained within the tires. General demand has been increasing, and submarkets for crumb products are growing in size and variety. However, the optimistic expectations of potential investors and government agencies contrast sharply with the experiences of many current and former producers. Production planning and operation is complex, real-dollar crumb prices have fallen, and many producers recount difficulties finding stable markets and competing against newer, state-subsidized competitors. This paper examines the engineering economics of crumb rubber facilities. Following a literature review and interviews with producers, a financial model of a nominal processing operation was created to aid the analysis of different market, crumb size, and production scenarios. The profitability of a crumb facility appears to be particularly sensitive to crumb rubber prices, operating costs, and raw material availability. Better analysis of market and production impacts on financial viability for proposed processing facilities would aid overall market efficiency.     

The Asia-Pacific petroleum market

The late 1980s saw an astonishing turnaround in the Asian oil market. After years of stagnation, three main factors - economic dynamism, lower oil prices and reduced government regulation of the market - resulted in a consumption surge that surprised even those analysts who had predicted such a recovery. The chronically capacity-surplus refining industry saw a leap in profitability, and new construction began. Rapid demand growth spread from the middle distillates to such formerly depressed products as gasoline and fuel oil, and naphtha markets began to expand again as the petrochemical industry resumed rapid growth. At the same time that demand has been rising and demand patterns have been shifting, other changes have begun. A new environmental awareness has taken root in Asia, and new environmental standards are being set almost daily, not only in the richer countries of East Asia, but also in many of the region's developing nations. Unfortunately, traditional sources of low-sulphur oil for power generation may be limited in the coming decade. Despite many new discoveries within the region, Asian crude availability is shrinking, both in terms of availability on the international market and in terms of percentage contribution to regional oil demand. After years of decreasing reliance, the region will face rapid increases in imports from the Persian Gulf in the 1990s.     

重庆市土地储备制度的融资选择

城市土地储备制度的运行必须以连续的资金流为保汪，但是传统的融资渠道，如财政拨款和银行贷款已不能满足当前城市土地整理及开发中巨大的资金需求。以重庆市为例，从分析重庆市城市土地利用状况和土地市场特点出发，运用PPP模式和ABS模式，提出土地信托和土地债券的概念，得出一条创新的城市土地储备制度融资渠道，以加强城市抵御各方面风险的能力。     

Assessment of the Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach: Case studies from Malawi and Uganda

This paper presents lessons from applying an innovative action research approach for linking smallholder farmers to markets, in eastern and southern Africa. The Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach aims to strengthen social organization and entrepreneurial capacity in rural communities. It focuses on fostering community‐based capacity for the inclusion of rural women and the poor in analyzing and accessing market opportunities. Using case studies from Malawi and Uganda the paper assesses the outcomes of ERI on rural communities with a focus on human capital, gender issues and investment in natural resource management. Results show that households are benefiting significantly from linkages to markets in terms of increasing household incomes, and accumulating assets. Skills in analyzing markets and in negotiating with traders have increased among smallholder farmers. The integration of gender in the approach has led to changes in gender decision making patterns at household and community level towards a more shared decision‐making process. The results however show a difference in skills between men and women, with women showing lower levels of skills acquisition. Farmer participatory research has increased investments in improved technologies such as fertilizer applications for soil fertility management.     

Sustainable energy development in rural Asia

In considering the prospects for sustainable energy, most studies have focused on developments in the urban and industrial areas. However, in Asia where the bulk of the population continues to live in rural areas, it is essential to monitor the changes occurring in the countryside. Therefore, this paper examines the developments taking place in rural energy in Asia in general and focuses specifically on the situation in China. It is observed that a total reorganization of the energy picture is occurring in rural China with regard to both conventional and non-conventional energy, as a result of the huge market for power and fuel created by rapid economic growth. This has led to new distribution networks for electricity (with the Chinese Government following the example of the US Rural Electrification Administration), fossil fuels and renewable energy systems. The growing affluence of the population coupled with rapid industrialization is producing far-reaching changes in the transportation structure as well as in the household energy structure. The situation in China is seen to be comparable to that in other East and Southeast Asian countries, particularly those which combine a rapidly growing industrial sector with a large rural population engaged in agriculture, such as the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia.     

Fuelwood Use in the Cities of the Developing World: Two Case Studies from India

A number of studies of traditional fuel supply and demand in rural areas of developing countries have been undertaken, but little has been done to make comparable studies for urban populations. This paper reports on two studies undertaken on fuelwood supplies, their transporation and distribution and utilization in the Indian cities of Bangalore and Hyderabad.
Substantial amounts of fuelwood—200 000 tonnes in Hyderabad and 450 000 tonnes in Bangalore—are consumed. Seventy-eight percent of the fuelwood is consumed by households where it is a major source of energy for cooking and heating for low income families. While the researchers did not visit the forest areas which are the source of fuelwood, the quantity consumed is so large as to indicate that deforestation is possibly severe. Recommendations are made to deal with the problem.     

Urban household energy use patterns in Nigeria

Urban household energy use accounts for a large proportion of commercial fuel consumption in Nigeria. As population and urbanization increase, consumption is expected to rise rapidly in the future. It is therefore important to have information on the utilization pattern and factors driving consumption of urban household energy. Such information will be useful within the national energy planning framework for deriving strategies for a more rational energy utilization and increased reliability of energy supply to the urban household. In this paper, the major results from an urban household survey are presented. In the survey, data on various factors including energy consumption by income group, fuel preferences, sources and reliability of energy supply, and expenditure on energy are collected and analysed. Major conclusions are drawn on the possibilities for fuel supply/demand balance, and strategies for efficient energy utilization in the urban household .     

Toward energy and livelihoods security in Africa: Smallholder production and processing of bioenergy as a strategy

The past few years have seen a phenomenal rise in the production and consumption of biofuels and biodiesel at the global level. This development is of special significance to Africa, where about 550 million people (75% of the total population in Sub‐Saharan Africa) depend on traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, cow dung, etc.) and lack access to electricity or any kind of modern energy service. Derived from plants and agricultural crops, biofuels and biodiesel represent modern forms of bioenergy and more efficient use of biomass energy. Beyond efficiency, modern bioenergy offers tremendous opportunities to meet growing household energy demands, increase income, reduce poverty, and mitigate environmental degradation. In the African setting, energy and livelihoods security are indeed inseparable. This paper argues economic, social, and environmental benefits of modern bioenergy can be realized through a strategy that centres on smallholder production and processing schemes and pursuit of a livelihood approach to energy development. Such a scheme opens up new domestic markets, generates new cash incomes, improves social wellbeing, enhances new technology adoption, and lays the ground for rural economic transformation and sustainable land use. The paper concludes by underlining the vital importance of considering sound property rights and strategic planning of sustainable development as tools for sustainable energy and livelihoods security.     

Household water use behavior: An integrated model

Water authorities are dealing with the challenge of ensuring that there is enough water to meet demand in the face of drought, population growth and predictions of reduced supply due to climate change. In order to develop effective household demand management programs, water managers need to understand the factors that influence household water use. Following an examination and re-analysis of current water consumption behavioral models we propose a new model for understanding household water consumption. We argue that trust plays a role in household water consumption, since people will not save water if they feel others are not minimizing their water use (inter-personal trust). Furthermore, people are less likely to save water if they do not trust the water authority (institutional trust). This paper proposes that to fully understand the factors involved in determining household water use the impact of trust on water consumption needs investigation.     

Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions

In the early 2000s, the precious metal markets entered into a new phase where a steady rise of prices had been observed until the October 2008 crash. Given the size and importance of precious metal market, as well as the hedging capacity of precious metals due to their low correlation with equity markets (Draper et al., 2006), the question we want to arise is whether trader positions predict the direction of gold, platinum, and silver spot price movements. The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report for platinum, silver and gold prices using trader positions is investigated in a VAR framework. Granger causality tests are conducted to determine whether a relation between trader positions and market prices exists. An examination of the extreme trader positions on price movements is also conducted. The results indicate that market return is a significant parameter in explaining trader’s positions for all trader types in each of the precious metal markets under consideration after the beginning of 2000s where we detect a structural break for each of the market under study. Commercial traders are found to be negative feedback traders, that is, they sell when the prices increase in the market. On the other hand, in line with the previous literature, a positive correlation between returns and positions held by non-commercial and non-reporting traders is found. However, trader’s net positions do not lead market returns in general. There is some evidence on the forecasting ability of extreme trader positions on market returns.     

Energy transition in South and South-East Asia

Energy transition is the process whereby the volume and proportion of commercial energy increases so as to replace traditional fuels as the main energy source. In South and South-East Asia the extent to which this transition has taken place varies within and between countries. In general, in the urban areas, the process is more advanced than in rural areas. It is also more advanced in the larger towns than the smaller ones and more advanced within higher income groups. In rural areas industry is a large consumer of traditional energy and many rural peoples earn their livelihoods as suppliers of traditional energy to industry. For both economic and social reasons the transition process has been slower in rural households than in urban households. This must change as for much of the rural areas of South and South-East Asia, increasing population and increasing energy demand are creating pressures on the biomass which cannot be sustained.     

Environmental changes associated with mass urban tourism and nature tourism development in Hong Kong

Hong Kong's tourism is overwhelmingly urban-focused. There is a heavy concentration of tourist and ancillary facilities in a small core urban area. A well-defined tourist business district has evolved with imprints on urban morphology. Hotels and the travel industry have limited direct environmental impacts; recent efforts have reduced energy and water consumption and waste generation. Changing preferences and market diversification call for countryside and resort types of tourism. The mainly young visitors are increasingly interested in the scenic countryside with a well-established country-park system, the tourist potential of which has been neglected. Hitherto rural excursions have been confined to 'honeypots' with little penetration away from main roads. The varied possibilities of nature tourism with ecotourism ingredients can be tapped as an adjunct to the city-based counterpart. New tourist nodes such as scattered resorts and a resort island can bring visitors close to nature. The changing patterns of consumption and the increase in rural visitorship demand measures to forestall environmental degradation.     

农村沼气建设对四川省节能减排的贡献——以西昌市的典型调查为例

以西昌市农村能源利用结构为例,分析发展农村户用沼气后,在能源的需求量减少的情况下,可以获得更多的热能,并达到减排的目的。     

基于活动偏好的西安市“农家乐”旅游市场细分

面向细分市场开发特色旅游产品是克服目前国内＂农家乐＂发展普遍存在的产品初级化和同质化现象的有效途径。基于游客活动偏好,应用市场调查获取的第一手数据,采用聚类分析方法对西安市＂农家乐＂旅游市场进行细分研究。细分结果表明,西安市＂农家乐＂旅游市场可按照旅游者的活动偏好不同划分为回归田园型、静态休闲型、康乐健身型、娱乐参与型和阳光运动型5个类型。与全国其他城市一样,西安市＂农家乐＂旅游市场的主体是市区和郊区的市民,且市场职业分异不显著,自驾车旅游者和大学生是西安市＂农家乐＂旅游市场的两个重要组成部分。根据市场细分结果,提出面向不同细分市场,打造特色旅游产品和根据游游客出行特点,改善交通基础设施发展＂农家乐＂的建议。     

The behaviour of suppliers and consumers in mandated markets: the introduction of the ethanol–petrol blend E10 in Germany

In December 2010, the German government increased the maximum ethanol content that can be blended with petrol from 5% to 10%, which facilitated the introduction of the ethanol–petrol blend E10. The revised ethanol–petrol blend was introduced with ambitions towards decarbonizing the transport sector as well as to support energy security and rural development. While usually supportive of actions aimed to combat climate change, the great majority of German motorists have refused to buy E10. The lacking demand for E10 is the empirical phenomenon addressed by this study. How did the fuel suppliers comply with the policy provisions? Which actors made attempts to influence the motorists’ demand for the new ethanol–petrol blend? Which actor was assigned the responsibility for the problems that occurred upon the rollout of the new fuel type? These research questions guide this study, which concentrates on the behaviour of transport fuel suppliers and consumers in mandated markets, that is, markets created by policy provisions.