Instability in primary commodity markets

The two principal objectives of this paper are, first, to consider the behaviour of primary commodity prices on world markets. In particular, the degree of price instability in each of 19 primary commodity markets in the period 1953–1974, and the long-run behaviour of primary commodity prices relative to the price of manufactures (‘the terms of trade’) are analysed. Secondly, measures of export earnings instability are presented which determine its degree and geographical extent. The importance of world primary commodity trade both for the developed countries as major importers and exporters and for the less developed countries as large exporters is also pointed out.     

From Management to Mediation: Local Forestry Management and the Forestry Crisis in Post-Socialist Russia

The local branches of the Russian Forestry Service, the leskhozy, were known for their efficiency and management skills in the Soviet era and were one of the very few community-based Soviet-type institutions to survive the transition. This article examines the role of the leskhozy in the new market economy. Our analysis is based on data from interviews with informants attached to the forestry sector in the Murmansk area. In some cases their knowledge of the leskhozy stretches back to the emergence of the system in 1947. Our principal finding is that the struggle to survive as a federal body in the current legal and economic climate is forcing the leskhozy to relegate sustainable forestry management, presumably their primary raison dêtre, to the lower portions of their list of priorities. Several consequences result. There is a heightened incidence of illegal logging, and corruption informs the allocation of forest areas to private interests. Stumpage prices have plummeted as timber from subsidized commercial cutting (ostensibly sanitary cutting or thinning) has flooded the markets. The root cause of these tribulations lies with the market-based harvesting permit system. Its introduction in the 1990s did little to eliminate the self-seeking practices of the old Soviet forestry management hierarchies. In the free market, local forestry managers can turn their dual responsibilities to their own advantage inasmuch as they control the allocation of harvesting permits while at the same time controlling logging practices.     

Forestry administration and policies in the Philippines

This article begins by summarizing the importance of the forestry sector in the Philippine economy It provides an overview of the multiplicity of Philippine governmental institutions involved in forestry in 1982 Then it discusses forestry laws in the country and concludes by examining fifteen critical forest policy issues: sustained yield management; area-specific logging bans; increased use of wood wastes; revision of forest charges; unprocessed log export ban; rationalization of the forest industry, acceleration of reforestation; protection of watersheds; recognition of the social dimensions of slash- and-burn agriculture; fuelwood supply; public land classification for forestry and agriculture, development of plantations for dendrothermal electricity; multiple-use management; preservation of mangrove areas, and improvements in administration and implementation.Research for this paper was supported by the East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute. The author would like to acknowledge the assistance of the Natural Resources Management Center of the Philippine Ministry of Natural Resources.     

Public intervention in rural housing markets

This paper is a revised version of one presented to the Regional Science Association Conference, University of Leeds, September 1983.

The extent of rural poverty is largely hidden, yet mean rural incomes are lower than in urban areas. Equally, the differential between low incomes and high minimum house prices in rural areas not always acknowledged. This paper looks at the planning response to these problems against alternative approaches including discriminatory policies against second home owners in rural areas. The paper concludes by identifying a solution restricting private development and augmenting public‐sector provision in rural areas.     

Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control

This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.     

Alberta's oil sands reclamation policy trajectory: the role of tense layering,policy stretching,and policy patching in long-term policy dynamics

As the Canadian oil sands development matures, an increasingly important policy activity is reclamation. Reclamation has received limited attention compared with the broader discussion of oil sands expansion, however, and its past direction and future trajectory are unclear. Recent moves to reform the policy in Alberta have been interpreted simultaneously as a major change and a marginal adaptation to the existing framework. This article employs a historical-institutional perspective to help reconcile this debate and further understanding of changes to Alberta's oil sands reclamation policies over the past half century. It traces the factors and outlines the processes which have driven its evolution since 1963 with special attention paid to the 2011 Oil Sands Progressive Reclamation Strategy, the most recent attempt to reform oil sands reclamation policy. The article reveals a complex long-term pattern of policy development in which processes of ‘tense layering’ of new initiatives on top of old elements resulted in a constantly shifting policy landscape as existing policy instruments and settings were ‘stretched’ to cover new circumstances but failed to resolve tensions between successive policy layers. After 1993, however, a more reflective process was put into place in which policy feedback informed alterations intended to reduce or remove tensions between successive layers. Such a policy ‘patching’ process is shown to have helped resolve tensions associated with earlier stretching of the existing regime and adds to the vocabulary of more general studies of policy dynamics.     

Transaction costs and sequential bargaining in transferable discharge permit markets

Market-type mechanisms have been introduced and are being explored for various environmental programs. Several existing programs, however, have not attained the cost savings that were initially projected. Modeling that acknowledges the role of transactions costs and the discrete, bilateral, and sequential manner in which trades are executed should provide a more realistic basis for calculating potential cost savings. This paper presents empirical evidence on potential cost savings by examining a market for the abatement of sediment from farmland. Empirical results based on a market simulation model find no statistically significant change in mean abatement costs under several transaction cost levels when contracts are randomly executed. An alternative method of contract execution, gain-ranked, yields similar results. At the highest transaction cost level studied, trading reduces the total cost of compliance relative to a uniform standard that reflects current regulations.     

河南省林业经济差异与空间演变

采用经济重心研究法和变异系数法对河南省林业经济进行了计量分析,发现该省林业经济差异在不断扩大,林业经济重心偏向东南方向,有北移和西移的趋势,对此现象进行了合理的解释.在此基础上,提出了河南省林业经济发展的建议：①转变林业经济增长方式;②豫北山区培育形成特色经济林基地;③豫南山区加强名优经济林种植及深加工;④豫东豫中平原区大力发展速生丰产林和用材林.     

Environmental policy in France

This paper looks at the development of environmental policy in France from the early 1970s. It considers the origins of this new field of action and the organisation developed for its administration at government level. The paper covers aspects such as financial resources, and the action programme itself, including pollution prevention and nature conservation.     

Overcoming the 'value-action gap' in environmental policy: Tensions between national policy and local experience

This paper is concerned with debates over the implementation of sustainability objectives. In particular, it focuses on policies that address the 'value-action gap' in environmental policy. Using evidence from the author's research connected with the UK Going for Green Sustainable Communities Project in Huntingdonshire, the paper highlights the tensions between national policies that are based on an 'information deficit' model of participation, and local research and experience that posits a more complex relationship between individuals and institutions. While this suggests the need to develop more differentiated policies based on the restructuring of socioeconomic and political institutions, the paper warns against knee-jerk calls for more local, community or public participation which simply replace one set of generalised appeals with another. The paper concludes that greater emphasis must be placed on the negotiation of partnerships that are more sensitive to local diversity, and which involve a more equitable distribution of responsibility between different environmental stakeholders.     

The effect of limited options and policy interactions on water storage policy in south Florida

Due to environmental constraints and reactive water management practices, water shortages exist across the Everglades ecosystem. A growing human population and continued wetlands damage and loss decrease the system's ability to provide water for sustained natural areas and for human uses. 'The Restudy' is an $8 billion plan to restore the Everglades while also continuing to provide water storage for urban and agricultural areas. The Restudy proposes a mix of water storage systems to provide for the predicted future growth in water demand. This mix is purported to be the most cost-efficient at providing water supplies, within the constraints of unchanged agricultural and urban land use. However, a sensitivity analysis of the Restudy's cost equation reveals that the total cost of water storage systems is influenced by real estate, land acquisition and water treatment costs. The interaction of land use and agricultural policies can affect these cost factors, and can change the relative cost-efficiency between storage systems. Real estate and land acquisition costs are affected by several 1996 Farm Bill provisions, which influence the cost of aboveground water storage systems versus Aquifer Storage and Recovery systems. The Governor's Commission for a Sustainable South Florida recommendations also influence the water storage options available to the Restudy. Due to the Restudy's initial assumptions and constraints, it may not advocate the most economically and ecologically sound remediation.     

Futures markets and economic efficiency: A theoretical perspective

This article examines the role of futures markets in schieving economic efficiency. The question is introduced in a timeless, certain framework, and extended to the case where time, but not uncertainty, becomes important: it is shown that in such a framework futures markets ensure economic efficiency. Uncertainty is then introduced, and it is shown that contingent markets ensure full efficiency, but that these are cumbersome; it is also shown that futures markets, as an alternative, ensure approximate efficiency. An appendix explores more formally the relation between markets and efficiency.     

Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence

This paper investigates long memory (or long-range dependence) in price returns and volatilities of energy futures contracts with different maturities. Based on a modified rescaled range analysis and three local Whittle methods, the results from rolling sample test suggest that the returns showed little or no long-range dependence over time but the volatilities displayed significant time-varying long-range dependence. Our evidence shows that some extreme events could cause long memory in returns and volatilities, leading to market inefficiency. Employing multiscale analysis, we find that the returns displayed no long-range dependence for any of the chosen time scales. Significant long-range dependence only existed in volatilities for daily time scales but not for monthly or yearly time scales.     

浅析森林认证与江西林业发展

为了更好地促进江西省的森林认证工作,在论述了森林认证的概念、目的和特点基础上,分析了江西省林业发展的优势条件和不利条件。认为开展森林认证工作有利于促进江西省森林的可持续经营;有利于森林经营单位与林农的关系更加融洽;有利于保护生态环境和生物多样性;有利于江西林业与国际接轨,开拓国际市场。     

The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets

This paper models the monthly price volatilities of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices) and investigates the macroeconomic determinants (business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment) of these volatilities. Gold volatility is shown to be explained by monetary variables, but this is not true for silver. Overall, there is limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the four precious metal price series, although there is evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. These results are consistent with the view that precious metals are too distinct to be considered a single asset class, or represented by a single index. This finding is of importance for portfolio managers and investors.     

Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets

The relationship between primary and scrap prices has been hypothesized for the most part as unidirectional, characterized by spillovers from primary to scrap prices. The purpose of this study is to evaluate empirically the dynamic interactions between primary and scrap metal prices through multivariate time series methods. In addition, the study expands the investigation at the level of volatility transmission, which has not been previously examined. The metal prices utilized are for copper, lead, and zinc for the period 1984–2001. The paper demonstrates differing long run and short run links. Scrap prices do not improve the long run interpretation of primary prices, but information flows from the scrap to the primary markets exist in the short run. Additionally, the copper and lead markets exhibit bidirectional information flows in terms of volatility transmission. The analysis provides valuable insight into the interactions of the primary and scrap metal sectors which can be used to improve forecasting and planning.     

黔东南州森林分类经营的探讨

在回顾森林分类经营发展历程的基础上，结合黔东南州实际指出了黔东南集体林区森林分类区划中应注意的问题，并对不同森林类型的经营管理提出对策。