Estimating Sustainable Bycatch Rates for California Sea Lion Populations in the Gulf of California

Abstract:  Commercial and subsistence fisheries pressure is increasing in the Gulf of California, Mexico. One consequence often associated with high levels of fishing pressure is an increase in bycatch of marine mammals and birds. Fisheries bycatch has contributed to declines in several pinniped species and may be affecting the California sea lion ( Zalophus californianus ) population in the Gulf of California. We used data on fisheries and sea lion entanglement in gill nets to estimate current fishing pressure and fishing rates under which viable sea lion populations could be sustained at 11 breeding sites in the Gulf of California. We used 3 models to estimate sustainable bycatch rates: a simple population-growth model, a demographic model, and an estimate of the potential biological removal. All models were based on life history and census data collected for sea lions in the Gulf of California. We estimated the current level of fishing pressure and the acceptable level of fishing required to maintain viable sea lion populations as the number of fishing days (1 fisher/boat setting and retrieving 1 day's worth of nets) per year. Estimates of current fishing pressure ranged from 101 (0–405) fishing days around the Los Machos breeding site to 1887 (842–3140) around the Los Islotes rookery. To maintain viable sea lion populations at each site, the current level of fishing permissible could be augmented at some sites and should be reduced at other sites. For example, the area around San Esteban could support up to 1428 (935–2337) additional fishing days, whereas fishing around Lobos should be reduced by at least 165 days (107–268). Our results provide conservation practitioners with site-specific guidelines for maintaining sustainable sea lion populations and provide a method to estimate fishing pressure and sustainable bycatch rates that could be used for other marine mammals and birds .     

Evaluating the California Gnatcatcher as an Umbrella Species for Conservation of Southern California Coastal Sage Scrub

Abstract: Designing reserves that preserve the habitat of many coexisting and threatened species often involves use of conservation surrogates, such as umbrella species. Typically, animals with legal protection are used as umbrella species, and these selections are overwhelmingly vertebrates. The tacit assumption that vertebrates automatically serve as conservation umbrellas for invertebrates rarely has been justified. The California Gnatcatcher (   Polioptila californica, Muscicapidae ), is a federally listed and endangered species in the United States and has been used as an umbrella species for the conservation of coastal sage scrub in southern California. Conservation planning efforts for this community follow a general paradigm of using vertebrate-based reserve designs as de facto protection for invertebrate cohabitants. To test the effectiveness of this strategy, I surveyed 50 patches of coastal sage scrub in San Diego County for three species of Lepidoptera: Mormon metalmark ( Apodemia mormo, Riodinidae ), Bernardino blue, (   Euphilotes bernardino, Lycaenidae ), and Electra buckmoth (    Hemileuca electra, Saturniidae ). The presence of the gnatcatcher was a poor indicator of the presence of these insects. Only the largest or most recently separated habitat patches supported all three species of Lepidoptera, but the gnatcatcher was present on nearly every site, regardless of size. Results indicate that vertebrates do not automatically function as umbrella species for invertebrate cohabitants. Reserve designs based on vertebrate umbrella species, which assume invertebrates will be protected, may result in the loss of a large portion of invertebrate diversity.     

Demography of the California Condor: Implications for Reestablishment

Abstract: The remnant wild population of California Condors ( Gymnogyps californianus ) of the 1980s exhibited a rapid population decline caused by high mortality rates among adult and immature birds. The most prominent mortality factor was lead poisoning resulting from ingestion of bullet fragments in carcasses. Successful captive breeding has allowed many birds to be released to the wild since 1992, based originally on an assumption that exposure to lead could be prevented by food subsidy. The mortality of released birds, however, has generally exceeded levels needed for population stability calculated from simple population models. Collision with overhead wires was the most frequent cause of death in releases before 1994. Lead poisoning again surfaced as a problem starting in 1997 as older birds began feeding on carcasses outside the subsidy program. Although poisonings have been treated successfully by chelation therapy in recaptured birds, food subsidy is proving an ineffective solution to lead exposure. The best long-term solution appears to be either the creation of large reserves where hunting is prohibited or the restriction of hunting to nontoxic ammunition in release areas. Until sources of lead contamination are effectively countered, releases cannot be expected to result in viable populations. In addition, problems involving human-oriented behavior have resulted in the permanent removal of many released birds from the wild. The most promising reduction in human-oriented behavior has been achieved in one release of aversively conditioned, parent-reared birds. Rigorous evaluation of the factors reducing attraction to humans and human structures has been hampered by confounding of techniques in releases. Behavioral problems could be more quickly overcome by adoption of a comprehensive experimental approach.     

Management priorities for Magdalena Bay, Baja California, Mexico

The current lack of a working resource management plan Magdalena Bay (southern Baja California, Mexico) has weakened attempts to set priorities among resource users and has contributed to: reduced fish stocks, land and marine contamination, and declines in the ecological integrity of the bay of 170 000 ha and its vast mangrove lagoon systems. The government agencies responsible for maintaining ecological integrity and managing marine resource use have not been successful in addressing these problems due to jurisdictional ambiguities, lack of community support, and lack of manpower for monitoring and enforcing policies. A framework was designed by the authors to work toward an approach for balancing between community development and conserving ecological integrity at the local level in the peripheral and central zones of the Magdalena Bay system. The goal of this framework was to suggest a basis for setting management priorities that included the perceptions and preferences of stakeholder groups with regard to direct threats to the environmental health of the study areas. To achieve this goal a crossdisciplinary study of the central and peripheral zones was used to examine factors that influence current resource use and the environmental state in these two regions of the bay system. Insights into the preferences and perceptions of stakeholder groups with regard to management priorities were acquired using the key informant technique. The results revealed potential conflicts with regard to preferred management priorities between stakeholder groups, as well as polarities within stakeholder groups themselves.     

Assessing Suitability for Conservation Action: Prioritizing Interpond Linkages for the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Conservation organizations and public agencies are interested in identifying and prioritizing areas for conservation action, often acquisition or easements. Typically, this requires the use of uncertain data and vaguely defined decision criteria. I developed a decision support system to address these uncertainty issues and assist in evaluating conservation opportunities for the endangered California tiger salamander ( Ambystoma californiense ) in Santa Barbara, California. Functionally defined planning units were used to aggregate data on land suitability, land cover change, salamander presence, and movement risk along potential linkages between breeding ponds. I used a fuzzy-logic-based inference engine to evaluate the planning units and rank the relative suitability of interpond linkages for conservation action. The sensitivity of the rankings was considered with respect to uncertainty in salamander occurrence data and the relationship between land-cover-change threats and site suitability. All linkages were substantially degraded, but five areas were consistently identified with high relative suitability for conservation action despite differences in assumptions and uncertainty in biological data. The combination of functionally defined planning units and a fuzzy-logic-based decision support system provides a general framework for considering the suitability of sites for conservation action.     

Support vector machines for predicting distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California

In the central California coastal forests, a newly discovered virulent pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) has killed hundreds of thousands of native oak trees. Predicting the potential distribution of the disease in California remains an urgent demand of regulators and scientists. Most methods used to map potential ranges of species (e.g. multivariate or logistic regression) require both presence and absence data, the latter of which are not always feasibly collected, and thus the methods often require the generation of ‘pseudo’ absence data. Other methods (e.g. BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) seek to model the presence-only data directly. In this study, we present alternative methods to conventional approaches to modeling by developing support vector machines (SVMs), which are the new generation of machine learning algorithms used to find optimal separability between classes within datasets, to predict the potential distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California. We compared the performances of two types of SVMs models: two-class SVMs with ‘pseudo’ absence data and one-class SVMs. Both models performed well. The one-class SVMs have a slightly better true-positive rate (0.9272 ± 0.0460 S.D.) than the two-class SVMs (0.9105 ± 0.0712 S.D.). However, the area predicted to be at risk for the disease using the one-class SVMs (18,441 km²) is much larger than that of the two-class SVMs (13,828 km²). Both models show that the majority of disease risk will occur in coastal areas. Compared with the results of two-class SVMs, the one-class SVMs predict a potential risk in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountain ranges; much greater risks are also found in Los Angles and Humboldt Counties. We believe the support vector machines when coupled with geographic information system (GIS) will be a useful method to deal with presence-only data in ecological analysis over a range of scales.     

Science and Society: Marine Reserve Design for the California Channel Islands

Abstract:  We explored the interaction of science and society in attempts to restore impaired marine ecosystems in Channel Islands National Park and National Marine Sanctuary, California. Deteriorating resource conditions triggered a community's desire to change public policy. Channel Islands National Park, one of 40 marine protected areas in the U.S. National Park System, was proclaimed a national monument in 1938 and expanded substantially in 1980 by an act of Congress. Collapse of marine life populations and loss of 80% of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in the park between 1980 and 1998 showed that habitat and water quality protection alone had not secured sustainable ocean ecosystems or fisheries. The failed fishery management strategies and practices prompted formal community and agency requests in 1998 for a network of reserves protected from direct fishing impacts to serve as marine recovery areas. A 2-year attempt to build a community consensus based on science for a reserve network successfully identified recovery goals for fisheries, biodiversity, education, economics, and heritage values. Nevertheless, the community group failed to garner unanimous support for a specific reserve network to achieve those common goals. The group submitted a recommendation, supported by 14 of 16 members, to state and federal authorities in 2001 for action in their respective jurisdictions. California adopted the half of the network in state waters in 2003. This process exposed the socioeconomic factors involved in the design of marine protected areas that can be negotiated successfully among groups of people and factors determined by nature that cannot be negotiated. Understanding the differences among the factors was crucial in reaching consensus and changing public policy.     

Phylogeography of California and Galápagos sea lions and population structure within the California sea lion

We investigate the phylogeography of California (Zalophus californianus) and Galápagos (Z. wollebaeki) sea lions and describe within-population structure for the California sea lion based on mitochondrial DNA. Fifty control-region haplotypes were found, 41 from Z. californianus and 9 from Z. wollebaeki, with three fixed differences between the two species. Ranked population boundaries along the range of Z. californianus were defined based on the Monmonier Maximum Difference Algorithm, resulting in five genetically distinct populations, two in the Pacific Ocean and three inside the Gulf of California. A Minimum Spanning Network showed a strong phylogeographic signal with two well-defined clusters, Z. californianus and Z. wollebaeki, separated by six base-pair differences, supporting the existence of two genetically distinct species with an estimated divergence time of ~0.8 Ma. Results are discussed in the context of the historical geologic and paleoceanographic events of the last 1 Ma in the eastern Pacific.     

Geographic Analysis of California Condor Sighting Data

Observation and habitat data were compiled and analyzed in conjunction with recovery planning for the endangered California Condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to provide a quantitative inventory of recent historical Condor habitats, to measure the association of Condor activity patterns and mapped habitat variables, and to examine spatio-temporal changes in the range of the species during its decline. Only five percent of the study area within the historic range is now used for urban or cultivated agricultural purposes. Observations of Condor feeding perching, and nesting were nonrandomly associated with mapped land cover, in agreement with life history information for the species. The precipitous decline in numbers of Condors in this century produced only a small reduction in the limits of the observed species' range, as individual birds continued to forage over most of the range. Some critical risk factors such as shooting and lead poisoning are difficult to map and have not been included in the database. Besides the applications demonstrated in this case study, GIS can be a valuable tool for recovery planning, in the design of stratified sampling schemes, or for extrapolation of habitat models over unsurveyed regions. We conclude with recommendations from this case study regarding when to consider using GIS and the importance of pilot studies and sensitivity analysis.     

Human influence on California fire regimes.

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.     

Primary productivity in the Gulf of California

Primary productivity data from 6 cruises in the Gulf of California are summarized. A total of 31 stations with 133 samples was available. The Gulf of California represents a subtropical area with exceptionally high rates of primary productivity. This fact may be accounted for by temporary seasonal upwelling, a wind-mixed water column down to the shallow thermocline, especially in the northern part of the Gulf, and by tidal mixing, especially in the Ballenas Channel between Baja California and the island Angel de la Guardia. Rates of primary productivity in the Gulf of California are comparable to those in areas such as the Bay of Bengal, the upwelling areas off the west coast of Baja California, or North Africa. They are about 2 to 3 times greater than that in the open Atlantic or the open Pacific at similar latitudes.Contribution from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. This work was part of the Scripps Tuna Oceanography Research Program. It was supported by the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries under contract number 14-17-0007-963. Shiptime was provided from funds of the National Science Foundation.