Predicting how defaunation-induced changes in seed predation and dispersal will affect tropical tree populations

The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.     

Uniform predation risk in nature: common,inconspicuous, and a source of error to predation risk experiments

Previous studies indicate that when predation risk is uniform across habitats, foragers concentrate their exploitation in fewer patches. Although uniform predation risk may seem rare in nature, some scenarios might cause it. Testing all scenarios in a single experiment is unfeasible; therefore, we developed a model that points whether concentration of exploitation in specific habitats due to uniform risk requires parameter values similar to what is found in literature. This model was based on Brown’s (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 22:37–47, 1988) fitness function but rescaled to multiple habitats and predators, including uniform risk predators. Deriving function’s maximum allowed comparisons with giving-up density studies. Results showed that uniform predation risk had a u-shaped effect in habitat exploitation, causing a concentration of habitat exploitation at probabilities of survival from 0.2 to 0.8. However, the length of this interval and degree of concentration depended on the value of safety to forager fitness. Heterogeneous, nonuniform, predation risk decreases habitat exploitation where it was higher, therefore suppressing the effect of uniform risk on prey behavior. Time spent in the focal habitat and metabolic costs reduced the detectability of habitat concentration, while total time did not. We also found that uniform risk reduced accuracy of heterogeneous risk measurements. Future studies should aim to control all possible predators, as even the mild ones can induce complex behavior.     

Trade-offs between maternal foraging and fawn predation risk in an income breeder

The choice of neonatal hiding place is critical for ungulates adopting hiding anti-predator strategies, but the consequences of different decisions have rarely been evaluated with respect to offspring survival. First, we investigated how landscape-scale choices made by roe deer fawns and their mothers affected predation risk by red foxes in a forest–farmland mosaic in southeastern Norway. After, we examined the effect of site-specific characteristics and behaviour (i.e. visibility, mother–fawn distance and abundance of the predator’s main prey item—small rodents) on predation risk. The study of habitat use, selection and habitat-specific mortality revealed that roe deer utilised the landscape matrix in a functional way, with different habitats used for feeding, providing maternal care and as refugia from predation. Mothers faced a trade-off between foraging and offspring survival. At the landscape-scale decisions were primarily determined by maternal energetic constraints and only secondarily by risk avoidance. Indeed, forage-rich habitats were strongly selected notwithstanding the exceptionally high densities of rodents which increased fawn predation. At fine spatial scales, a high visibility of the mother was the major factor determining predation risk; however, mothers adjusted their behaviour to the level of risk at the bed site to minimise predation. Fawns selected both landscape-scale refugia and concealed bed sites, but failure to segregate from the main prey of red foxes led to higher predation. This study provides evidence for the occurrence of spatial heterogeneity in predation risk and shows that energetically stressed individuals can tackle the foraging-safety trade-off by adopting scale-dependent anti-predator responses.     

Food webs and intraguild predation: community interactions of a native mesocarnivore

Trophic level interactions between predators create complex relationships such as intraguild predation. Theoretical research has predicted two possible paths to stability in intraguild systems: intermediate predators either outcompete higher-order predators for shared resources or select habitat based on security. The effects of intraguild predation on intermediate mammalian predators such as swift foxes (Vulpes velox) are not well understood. We examined the relationships between swift foxes and both their predators and prey, as well the effect of vegetation structure on swift fox-coyote (Canis latrans) interactions, between August 2001 and August 2004. In a natural experiment created by the Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site in southeastern Colorado, USA, we documented swift fox survival and density in a variety of landscapes and compared these parameters in relation to prey availability, coyote abundance, and vegetation structure. Swift fox density varied significantly between study sites, while survival did not. Coyote abundance was positively related to the basal prey species and vegetation structure, while swift fox density was negatively related to coyote abundance, basal prey species, and vegetation structure. Our results support the prediction that, under intraguild predation in terrestrial systems, top predator distribution matches resource availability (resource match), while intermediate predator distribution inversely matches predation risk (safety match). While predation by coyotes may be the specific cause of swift fox mortality in this system, the more general mechanism appears to be exposure to predation moderated by shrub density.     

The effects of variable predation risk on foraging and growth: less risk is not necessarily better

There is strong evidence that the way prey respond to predation risk can be fundamentally important to the structuring and functioning of natural ecosystems. The majority of work on such nonconsumptive predator effects (NCEs) has examined prey responses under constant risk or constant safety. Hence, the importance of temporal variation in predation risk, which is ubiquitous in natural systems, has received limited empirical attention. In addition, tests of theory (e.g., the risk allocation hypothesis) on how prey allocate risk have relied almost exclusively on the behavioral responses of prey to variation in risk. In this study, we examined how temporal variation in predation risk affected NCEs on prey foraging and growth. We found that high risk, when predictable, was just as energetically favorable to prey as safe environments that are occasionally pulsed by risk. This pattern emerged because even episodic pulses of risk in otherwise safe environments led to strong NCEs on both foraging and growth. However, NCEs more strongly affected growth than foraging, and we suggest that such effects on growth are most important to how prey ultimately allocate risk. Hence, exclusive focus on behavioral responses to risk will likely provide an incomplete understanding of how NCEs shape individual fitness and the dynamics of ecological communities.     

Malaria and risk of predation: a comparative study of birds

Predators have been hypothesized to prey on individuals in a poor state of health, although this hypothesis has only rarely been examined. We used extensive data on prey abundance and availability from two long-term studies of the European Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the Eurasian Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) to quantify the relationship between predation risk of different prey species and infection with malaria and other protozoan blood parasites. Using a total of 31 745 prey individuals of 65 species of birds from 1709 nests during 1977-1997 for the Sparrowhawk and a total of 21 818 prey individuals of 76 species of birds from 1480 nests for the Goshawk during 1977-2004, we show that prey species with a high prevalence of blood parasites had higher risks of predation than species with a low prevalence. That was also the case when a number of confounding variables of prey species, such as body mass, breeding sociality, sexual dichromatism, and similarity among species in risk of predation due to common descent, were controlled in comparative analyses of standardized linear contrasts. Prevalence of the genera Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium, and Trypanosoma were correlated with each other, and we partitioned out the independent effects of different protozoan genera on predation risk in comparative analyses. Prevalence of Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium accounted for interspecific variation in predation risk for the two raptors. These findings suggest that predation is an important factor affecting parasite-host dynamics because predators tend to prey on hosts that are more likely to be infected, thereby reducing the transmission success of parasites. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that protozoan infections are a common cause of death for hosts mediated by increased risk of predation.     

Adding infection to injury: synergistic effects of predation and parasitism on amphibian malformations

We explored the importance of interactions between parasite infection and predation in driving an emerging phenomenon of conservation importance: amphibian limb malformations. We suggest that injury resulting from intraspecific predation in combination with trematode infection contributes to the frequency and severity of malformations in salamanders. By integrating field surveys and experiments, we evaluated the individual and combined effects of conspecific attack and parasite (Ribeiroia ondatrae) infection on limb development of long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum). In the absence of Ribeiroia, abnormalities involved missing digits, feet, or limbs and were similar to those produced by cannibalistic attack in experimental trials. At field sites that supported Ribeiroia, malformations were dominated by extra limbs and digits. Correspondingly, laboratory exposure of larval salamanders to Ribeiroia cercariae over a 30-day period induced high frequencies of malformations, including extra digits, extra limbs, cutaneous fusion, and micromelia. However, salamander limbs exposed to both injury and infection exhibited 3-5 times more abnormalities than those exposed to either factor alone. Infection also caused significant delays in limb regeneration and time-to-metamorphosis. Taken together, these results help to explain malformation patterns observed in natural salamander populations while emphasizing the importance of interactions between parasitism and predation in driving disease.     

Climate warming and predation risk during herbivore ontogeny

Phenological effects of climate change are expected to differ among species, altering interactions within ecological communities. However, the nature and strength of these effects can vary during ontogeny, so the net community-level effects will be the result of integration over an individual's lifetime. I resolved the mechanism driving the effects of warming and spider predation risk on a generalist grasshopper herbivore at each ontogenetic stage and quantified the treatment effects on a measure of reproductive fitness. Spiders caused nymphal grasshoppers to increase the proportion of herbs in their diet, thus having a positive indirect effect on grasses and a negative indirect effect on herbs. Warming strengthened the top-down effect by affecting spiders and grasshoppers differently. In cooler, ambient conditions, grasshoppers and spiders had a high degree of spatial overlap within the plant canopy. Grasshopper position was unaffected by temperature, but spiders moved lower in the canopy in response to warming. This decreased the spatial overlap between predator and prey, allowing nymphal grasshoppers to increase daily feeding time. While spiders decreased grasshopper growth and reproductive fitness in ambient conditions, spiders had no effect on grasshopper fitness in warmed treatments. The study demonstrates the importance of considering the ontogeny of behavior when examining the effects of climate change on trophic interactions.     

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge, USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set (N?=?67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.     

The effects of size-dependent predation risk on the interaction between behavioral and life history traits in a stream-dwelling isopod

In field surveys, laboratory observations and field-based assays of behavior, I examined the effects of size-dependent predation risk on the interaction between size at reproductive maturity and maternal care behavior in the stream-dwelling isopod, Lirceus fontinalis. L. fontinalis exhibit population-specific sizes at reproductive maturity which result in population differences in predation risk during the adult phase. Females from streams containing salamander larvae (that prefer small prey) mature at large sizes and then become relatively safe from predation. Females from streams containing fish (that consume all size classes of prey equally) mature at small sizes and remain at risk. I tested whether these differences in expected survival were reflected in the behavior of females during the maternal phase (i.e., the period during which females exhibit maternal care). Female L. fontinalis carry developing juveniles inside a brood pouch. I simulated predatory attacks on gravid female L. fontinalis from the different population types and found that female behavior correlated with population differences in risk. When “attacked”, females from streams with predatory fish (that experience high risk to adult females) released juveniles from the brood pouch, whereas females from populations with predatory salamander larvae (that pose relatively little risk to adult females) did not release juveniles. I discuss the results with reference to the joint evolution of behavioral and life history traits. Received: 6 March 1996 /Accepted after revision: 12 August 1996     

From interference to predation: type and effects of direct interspecific interactions of small mammals

Indirect exploitative competition, direct interference and predation are important interactions affecting species coexistence. These interaction types may overlap and vary with the season and life-history state of individuals. We studied effects of competition and potential nest predation by common shrews (Sorex araneus) on lactating bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in two seasons. The species coexist and may interact aggressively. Additionally, shrews can prey on nestling voles. We studied bank vole mothers’ spatial and temporal adaptations to shrew presence during summer and autumn. Further, we focused on fitness costs, e.g. decreased offspring survival, which bank voles may experience in the presence of shrews. In summer, interference with shrews decreased the voles’ home ranges and they spent more time outside the nest, but there were no effects on offspring survival. In autumn, we found decreased offspring survival in enclosures with shrews, potentially due to nest predation by shrews or by increased competition between species. Our results indicate a shift between interaction types depending on seasonal constraints. In summer, voles and shrews seem to interact mainly by interference, whereas resource competition and/or nest predation by shrews gain importance in autumn. Different food availability, changing environmental conditions and the energetic constraints in voles and shrews later in the year may be the reasons for the varying combinations of interaction types and their increasing effects on the inclusive fitness of bank voles. Our study provides evidence for the need of studies combining life history with behavioural measurements and seasonal constraints.     

Continued decline of an Atlantic cod population: how important is gray seal predation?

The continental shelf ecosystem on the Eastern Scotian Shelf (ESS) has experienced drastic changes. Once common top predators are a small fraction of their historical abundance, and much of the current community structure is now dominated by pelagic fishes and invertebrates. Embedded within this food web, Atlantic cod and gray seal populations have recently exhibited nearly opposite trends. Since 1984, cod populations have decreased exponentially at a rate averaging 17% per year, whereas gray seals have continued to increase exponentially at a rate of 12%. We reexamined the impact of gray seals on Atlantic cod dynamics using more than 30 years of data on the population trends of cod and gray seals while incorporating new information on seal diet and seasonal distribution. The closure of the cod fishery over 10 years ago allowed for a better estimation of natural mortality rates. We quantified the impact of seals on ESS cod by (1) estimating trends in seal and cod abundance, (2) estimating the total energy needed for seal growth and maintenance from an energetics model, (3) using estimates of the percentage of cod in the total diet derived from quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) and of the size-specific selectivity of cod consumed (derived from otoliths collected from fecal samples), and (4) assuming a gray seal functional response. Uncertainties of the model estimates were calculated using the Hessian approximation of the variance-covariance matrix. Between 1993 and 2000, cod comprised, on average, < 5% of a gray seal's diet. Our model shows that, since the closure of the fishery, gray seals have imposed a significant level of instantaneous mortality (0.21), and along with other unknown sources of natural mortality (0.62), are contributing to the failure of this cod stock to recover.     

Resource identity modifies the influence of predation risk on ecosystem function

It is well established that predators can scare as well as consume their prey. In many systems, the fear of being eaten causes trait-mediated cascades whose strength can rival or exceed that of more widely recognized density-mediated cascades transmitted by predators that consume their prey. Despite this progress it is only beginning to be understood how the influence of predation risk is shaped by environmental context and whether it can exert an important influence on ecosystem-level processes. This study used a factorial mesocosm experiment that manipulated basal-resource identity (either barnacles, Semibalanus balanoides, or mussels, Mytilus edulis) to determine how resources modify the influence of predation risk, cascade strength, and the efficiency of energy transfer in two, tritrophic, rocky-shore food chains containing the predatory green crab (Carcinus maenas) and an intermediate consumer (the snail, Nucella lapillus). The effect of predation risk and the strength of trait-mediated cascades (both in absolute and relative terms) were much stronger in the barnacle than in the mussel food chain. Moreover, predation risk strongly diminished the efficiency of energy transfer in the barnacle food chain but had no significant effect in the mussel food chain. The influence of resource identity on indirect-effect strength and energy transfer was likely caused by differences in how each resource shapes the degree of risk perceived by prey. We suggest that our understanding of the connection between trophic dynamics and ecosystem functioning will improve considerably once the effects of predation risk on individual behavior and physiology are considered.     

Behaviour and choice of refuge by voles under predation risk

Animals often show a strong antipredatory response when they are exposed to their most deadly predator. In northern vole populations, the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis, is probably the most important predator of voles. Because of its small size and slender body shape, the least weasel is capable of hunting voles in their burrows. However, small voles can potentially escape weasel predation by selecting holes smaller than those weasels can enter. We studied the choice of nest holes and refuges by two species of voles under simulated predation risk. In a laboratory experiment, voles were provided with four nest boxes as refuges, with individually adjusted entrance sizes. When exposed to the odour of a weasel, voles did not choose the smallest opening; they rather seemed to trade full protection for easy and immediate access by choosing the nest box with an intermediate entrance size. When outside the nest at the time when a weasel entered the arena, voles avoided the refuges with the smallest holes. In addition to using refuges on ground level, voles climbed on top of the boxes as an escape reaction, as well as exhibiting a variety of behavioural responses, such as fast running, freezing and sneaking.Communicated by P.A. Bednekoff     

Meta-analysis of foraging and predation risk trade-offs in terrestrial systems

Although there is ample evidence for the generality of foraging and predation trade-offs in aquatic systems, its application to terrestrial systems is less comprehensive. In this review, meta-analysis was used to analyze experiments on giving-up-densities in terrestrial systems to evaluate the overall magnitude of predation risk on foraging behavior and experimental conditions mediating its effect. Results indicate a large and significant decrease in foraging effort as a consequence of increased predation risk. Whether experiments were conducted under natural or artificial conditions produced no change in the overall effect predation had on foraging. Odor and live predators as a correlate of predation risk had weaker and nonsignificant effects compared to habitat characteristics. The meta-analysis suggests that the effect of predation risk on foraging behavior in terrestrial systems is strongly dependent on the type of predation risk being utilized.     

Unraveling fission-fusion dynamics: how subgroup properties and dyadic interactions influence individual decisions

Many species show fission-fusion group dynamics because it has clear advantages for flexibly exploiting heterogeneous environments. However, the mechanisms by which these dynamics arise are not well known. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to disentangle the different influences on spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi) individual fissions and fusions, including the three dimensions of fission-fusion dynamics (subgroup size, dispersion, and composition). Furthermore, we considered the influences of other individuals also leaving or joining a subgroup at the same time. We found that the most important influence on individual fissions and fusions is whether other individuals are also doing the same. Subgroup size and dispersion did not have clear effects on the probability that an individual fissioned or fusioned, while individuals tended to leave subgroups that were biased toward the opposite sex and to join subgroups that were biased toward their own sex. The networks constructed by the inter-individual influences during fissions and fusions were cohesive and did not show assortativity by sex or by degree. Individuals had a similar degree in both networks and each was influenced by a different set of individuals, suggesting a high fluidity in the social networks. We suggest that these networks reflect the way in which information about the environment flows as individuals follow one another during fissions and fusions.     

Low-level sedimentation modifies behaviour in juvenile Haliotis iris and may affect their vulnerability to predation

Sedimentation is an important stressor of coastal ecosystems; yet, there is little research into specific mechanisms by which populations are affected by additional sediment loads resulting from anthropogenic-driven processes. This study explored the potential impact of the proposed disposal of over 7 million m³ of dredge spoil on a nearby fishery for the blackfoot abalone Haliotis iris. The range of sediment deposition predicted by models to occur on reefs inhabited by H. iris as a result of the dispersal of sediment from the disposal site was used to design controlled experiments between July and September 2011 to test the likely effects of sedimentation on: (a) behaviour and mortality of juvenile H. iris and (b) photosynthetic vitality of crustose coralline algae (CCA) that form nursery habitats for H. iris obtained from Brinns Point (45, 40.3′S, 170, 39.4′E). We observed no direct effects on the health or mortality of H. iris juveniles or the photosynthetic vitality of habitat forming CCA. H. iris did, however, avoid sediments by moving from predation refugia beneath cobbles to vertical surfaces on cobble edges significantly more often in sediment treatments compared to sediment-free controls. Deposited sediments were also found to inhibit righting response, key behaviour in allowing H. iris to reattach to the substratum following dislodgement. Results of this study suggest that indirect mortality from reductions in available refugia from predation and inability to recover from dislodgement could be significant. These results highlight the importance of understanding indirect impacts of stressors on key ecological processes in order to predict ecological responses.     

Effects of predation risk and hunger on the behaviour of two species of tadpoles

Predation and hunger are threats for most organisms, and appropriate behavioural responses to both factors should be shaped by natural selection. In combination, however, the behavioural demands of predation avoidance and effective foraging often cannot be satisfied at the same time and lead to a conflict within organisms. We examined the behavioural responses of two closely-related species of tadpoles, Rana lessonae and R. esculenta, to simulated predation by fish and hunger. Tadpoles, hatched and reared in the laboratory, were tested in a three-way factorial (predation risk × hunger × species) experiment with four predation levels and four hunger levels. Both species decreased their swimming activity with increasing predation risk. Predation risk did not influence the amount of activity time invested in feeding but caused the tadpoles to spend less time in patches with food. Refuges were not used to avoid predation. R. esculenta was more sensitive to predation risk than R. lessonae. Hunger increased both the activity of tadpoles and the amount of activity time invested in feeding, thus indicating an increased energy intake. No interactions were observed between predation risk and hunger. These results show that tadpoles possess genetically-based behavioural mechanisms that allow them to respond in a graded manner to predation and hunger. However, they did not balance the two conflicting demands of predation avoidance and effective foraging; the two mechanisms appeared to act independently. Correspondence to: R.D. Semlitsch     

The ghost of predation future: threat-sensitive and temporal assessment of risk by embryonic woodfrogs

Amphibians are able to learn to recognize their future predators during their embryonic development (the ghost of predation future). Here, we investigate whether amphibian embryos can also acquire additional information about their future predators, such as the level of threat associated with them and the time of day at which they would be the most dangerous. We exposed woodfrog embryos (Rana sylvatica) to different concentrations of injured tadpole cues paired with the odor of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) between 1500 and 1700 hours for five consecutive days and raised them for 9 days after hatching. First, we showed that embryos exposed to predator odor paired with increasing concentrations of injured cues during their embryonic development subsequently display stronger antipredator responses to the salamander as tadpoles, thereby demonstrating threat-sensitive learning by embryonic amphibians. Second, we showed that the learned responses of tadpoles were stronger when the tadpoles were exposed to salamander odor between 1500 and 1700 hours, the time at which the embryos were exposed to the salamander, than during earlier (1100–1300 hours) or later (1900–2100 hours) periods. Our results highlight the amazing sophistication of learned predator recognition by prey and emphasize the importance of temporal considerations in experiments examining risk assessment by prey.