Risk assessment of antagonistic hazards

This paper considers the risk to major hazard plant from terrorists deliberately causing catastrophic industrial accidents. The United States of America Department of Justice [Assessment of the increased risk of terrorist or other criminal activity associated with posting off-site consequence analysis information on the internet, 2000] reports that “breaching a containment vessel of an industrial facility with an explosive or otherwise causing a chemical release may appear relatively simple to…a terrorist”. They concluded that the risk of such action is “real and credible”.

Analysis of terrorism is often hampered by its being described as ‘irrational’; one corollary would be that it is unpredictable. However, terrorism may usefully be treated as a rational behaviour and in doing so it becomes possible to assess the risks it causes.

We analyse the vulnerability of major hazard plant to terrorist attack and identify nine factors (access, security, visibility, opacity, secondary hazard, robustness, law enforcement response, victim profile, and political value) that might be used as a starting point for more formal risk assessment and management.     

Toward an integrative approach of the industrial risk management process in France

Management in the field of environmental protection and risk prevention has evolved to the increasing participation of all stakeholders in the decision-making process. It certainly results from the development of the Information society and the global increase of knowledge of the population, combined with the concerns of the populations related to a sustainable development of our civilisation. Our ‘risk society’, following the big industrial disasters (Flixborough,Tchernobyl, Bhopal, Challenger, and more recently Toulouse), has also developed a cautious attitude towards the role of the expertise when it comes to assessing risks, along with a question of the ability of science to give definite answers.

This has lead in particular to the adoption of the Aarhus convention in 1998 and the evolution of several regulations in the developed countries. For example, in France the new law no. 2003–699 of 30 July 2003 about the ‘prevention of the technological and natural risks and to the compensation for the damages’ has introduced an important innovation into the process of technological risks prevention.

This law has enabled the involvement of the stakeholders in the decision-making process related to risk prevention and has urged the development of specific tools to deal with the complexity of risk management issues, in particular for those related to land-use planning.

As technical support to decision-makers in risk management from both public and private sectors, INERIS has played an important role for the evolution of the French risk management system.

This paper describes an analysis on the difficulty to control major accident hazards in an evolving context where the industrial systems becomes more and more complex and where the expectations of the civil society has increased. Then, the authors describe how an integrated vision for industrial risk management has emerged in France and is being implemented in a new law adopted after the Toulouse disaster.     

Safety distances for hydrogen filling stations

In the context of spatial planning the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment asked the Centre for External Safety of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to advice on safe distances pertaining to hydrogen filling stations. The RIVM made use of failure modeling and parameters for calculating the distance in detail. An imaginary hydrogen filling station for cars is used in the determination of ‘external safety’ or third party distances for the installations and the pipe work for three different sizes of hydrogen filling stations. For several failure scenarios ‘effect’ distances are calculated for car filling at 350 and 700 bar. Safe distances of filling stations from locations where people live and work appear to be similar for compressed hydrogen, gasoline/petrol and compressed natural gas. Safe distances for LPG are greater. A filling unit for hydrogen can be placed at gasoline/petrol-filling stations without increasing safety distances.     

Accident risk and driver behaviour

The concepts of risk compensation and risk homeostasis are often used to describe or to explain drivers' tendencies to react to traffic system changes whether in roads, vehicles, weather conditions or in their own skills. However, it is important to distinguish between the general phenomenon and mechanisms underlying it. This paper first points out that to understand the basic mechanisms it is necessary to split accidents and exposure into smaller entities to arrive at basic units of exposure which also represent fundamental driver tasks. Risk-related behaviour should be considered at several hierarchical levels with different mechanisms to produce ‘risk compensation’. At a high level, trip decisions modify populations at risk in different circumstances, sometimes attenuating, sometimes amplifying population risk differences. At a low level of vehicle control and guidance in real dynamic traffic situations, simpler control mechanisms which result in behavioural adaptation can be identified. All these effects influence the end result of accident risk as separate mechanisms.     

Risk analysis of a warehouse for the mixing, repackaging and distribution of organic chemicals

The EEC directive on ‘Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities’ has been implemented in Denmark. This means that risk analyses of some activities must be made before July 1989. One of the first plants that was analysed was a warehouse for the mixing, repackaging and distribution of organic chemicals. The analysis was performed as a commercial contract by Risø National Laboratory. The report has been submitted to the authorities but the plant has not yet been approved due to submission of a large amount of analyses of other plants. This paper illustrates how a risk analysis of a chemical plant can be made.     

A quantitative risk assessment tool for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tool has been developed by TNO for the external safety of industrial plants with a dust explosion hazard. As a first step an industrial plant is divided into groups of modules, defined by their size, shape, and constructional properties. Then the relevant explosion scenarios are determined, together with their frequency of occurrence. These include scenarios in which one module participates, as well as domino scenarios. The frequency is partly based on casuistry.

A typical burning velocity is determined depending on the ignition type, the dust properties and the local conditions for flame acceleration. The resulting pressure development is predicted with the ‘thin flame model’. Module failure occurs when the explosion load exceeds thresholds, which are derived from single degree of freedom (SDOF) calculations for various types of modules. A model has been developed to predict the process of pressure venting after module failure and the related motion of launched module parts.

The blast effects of the primary explosion are based on results from calculations with BLAST3D. The blast and flame effects of the secondary external explosion due to venting are calculated using existing models. The throw of fragments and debris is quantified with a recently developed model. This model is based on trajectory calculations and gives the impact densities, velocities, and angles as output. Furthermore the outflow of bulk material is taken into account. The consequences for external objects and human beings are calculated using existing models. Finally the risk contours and the Societal risk (FN curve) are calculated, which can be compared to regulations.     

Bifocal/varifocal spectacles, lighting and missed-step accidents

Good lighting and the correct use of spectacles generally improve vision and presumably reduce the risk of accidents. However, bifocal and varifocal spectacles can increase the risk of misjudging distances when negotiating underfoot hazards. In some circumstances, the portion of the lens used for close work may inadvertently be used where accurate judgement of distance is necessary. This paper reports results from two studies of patient interviews using the Merseyside Accident Information Model; the first a study of accidents which occurred during paid employment (1504 cases) and the second of 1326 accidents mainly in domestic and leisure activities. Underfoot accidents were identified by the first unforeseen event perceived by the patient. The relationship between underfoot events and the type of spectacles worn by the patient at the time of accident was analysed. In both studies there was a significant association between accidents where the first event was ‘missed edge of’ (step) and wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles. Corporal movements reported in both studies indicated that ‘stepping down’ when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles, increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents. In the work environment corporal movements associated with manual handling of loads also increased the risk of ‘missed edge’ accidents when wearing bifocal/varifocal spectacles.     

Automated diagnosis of malfunctions based on object orientated programming

The diagnostic event analyser (DEA) is a system for automated diagnosis of malfunction in continuous processes. DEA interprets real-time sequences of abnormal events such as measurements out of normal ranges and violation of quantitative algebraic constraints. DEA can be used to supplement an existing alarm system, providing a higher-level interpretation of patterns of abnormal events for the process operator. To use DEA, the user must supply only standard ‘form’ inputs of the root causes and relationships between abnormal events. DEA is implemented using object- oriented programming, a technique which allows general rules and procedures to be applied to process-specific objects. This architecture facilities treatment of multiple malfunctions and robustness to variation in event sequences.     

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

Rain-out investigation: Initial droplet size measurement

Droplet size distribution inside water flashing jets and corresponding rain-out fraction were measured. Mass distribution showed that a few droplets are ‘large’ (d>150 μm) and count for more than 85% of the liquid mass in the jet because of their large individual mass. This could be due to incomplete thermal fragmentation. It could explain the rain-out falling near the orifice or pipe exit.     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

On the implementation of an International Curriculum on Hydrogen Safety Engineering into higher education

This paper describes the implementation of an International Curriculum on Hydrogen Safety Engineering into higher education. The curriculum is being developed as part of the educational and training activities of the European Network of Excellence Safety of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier (HySafe) and has been implemented into a 1-year Postgraduate Certificate Course in Hydrogen Safety Engineering by the University of Ulster. The course is taught in the distance learning mode and comprises of two 30 CATS-point modules, namely, ‘Principles of Hydrogen Safety’ and ‘Applied Hydrogen Safety’. The first delivery of this course began in January 2007 and the second delivery will commence in September 2007.     

Addressing emerging risks using carbon capture and storage as an example

The European iNTeg-Risk project is a large-scale integrated project aimed at improving the management of emerging risks related to new technologies in European industry. The project aims to build a new management paradigm for emerging risks as a set of principles supported by a common language, agreed tools and methods, and key performance indicators, all integrated into a single framework. It is using a number of Emerging Risk Representative Applications (ERRAs), or case studies, to inform the development of the framework; one of which concerns the carbon capture and storage (CCS) process.This paper describes the iNTeg-Risk CCS ERRA. Relevant hazards and properties of carbon dioxide are described and the emerging risks from CCS are discussed. Three new tools have been developed or trialled within the ERRA. These are: the DyPASI methodology for taking account of atypical (not usually identified) events during hazard identification; a methodology for including the time dimension in a risk assessment; and life-cycle approaches for risk management and communication. For CCS, the risk assessment needs to include both short-term potential accidents from capture, transport or injection, as well as very long-term risks from storage. Knowledge gaps which are generic to emerging risks are also identified.     

A criterion for developing credible accident scenarios for risk assessment

Maximum credible accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of ‘credibility’ of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgement of the concerned analysts. This causes wide variation in the results of the studies conducted on the same industrial unit by different analysts.

This paper presents an attempt to develop a criterion using which credible accident scenarios may be identified from among a large number of possibilities. The credible scenarios thus identified may then be processed for detailed consequence analysis. This would help in reducing the cost of the analysis and prevent undue emphasis on less credible scenarios at the expense of more credible ones.     

A methodology for assessment of long-term exposure to whole-body vibrations in vehicle drivers to propose preventive safety measures

Introduction: The appearance of musculoskeletal disorders (MDs) in professional drivers due to exposition to whole-body vibration (WBV) makes it relevant to assess this exposure. The European Directive 2002/44/EC has two methods to evaluate exposure to WBV (defined in ISO2631-1:2008). These methods evaluate the exposure associated with an 8-hour working day; however, MDs due to WBV could also be caused by accumulated exposure to vibrations over long term, and hence, the methods defined in the European directive may be limited in their ability to ensure the safety of workers exposed to WBV throughout their years of employment. Method: A detailed comparison and discussion of methods defined in the European Directive and the ISO2631-5:2018 was used as a starting point of the main results of this paper. On this basis, a new methodology for the management and organization of preventive measures is proposed to consider the assessment of ISO2631-5:2018 standard and the full working life of workers. Experimental data to assess exposure to WBV in heavy equipment vehicle (HEV) drivers under different road surface conditions and range of velocities were considered to illustrate the process of the proposed methodology. Results: The methods defined in the standards provide different assessments leading to a different possible consideration of safe operations when the risks associated with them may actually be high. The proposed methodology can be used with the aim of ensuring safety of workers throughout their working lives and providing an easy implementation of the calculations of ISO2631-5:2018 standard. Conclusions: A procedure to assess the health risk probability to which the HEV worker is exposed in terms of the exposure years and a different range of operational vehicle speeds is proposed and exemplified with a study case. Practical applications: This study provides a practical tool for the management of WBV exposure related to work-tasks in HEV drivers. Safety managers should consider the global exposition to WBV throughout their working life, and this research provides an easy tool to accomplish it.     

Making sense of invulnerability at work—a qualitative study of police drivers

This paper reports a qualitative study of 54 police drivers who were interviewed about their views on police driver training, driving strategies and their accident involvement. Study of the transcribed interviews indicated that officers constructed narratives of themselves as being highly aware of hazards presented by other road users and they used a variety of discursive devices to minimise their own culpability and attribute risk elsewhere. Rather than maintaining a straightforward ‘illusion of invulnerability’ they were formulating a ‘topography of risk’ in which they were responding to hazards presented by suspects or other road users. Their meticulously detailed accounts of the circumstances surrounding accidents serve to place them as knowledgeable and impartial participants and create a sense of expertise and authority. Training initiatives could profitably seek to challenge this ‘topography of risk’ and sense of authority so that drivers more fully appreciate the hazard they may present to themselves and the public.     

Application of a predictive safety model in a combustion testing environment

A predictive safety model for accident prevention and system failure, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology, is applied at the Marshall Space Flight Center's promoted combustion test chamber. It combines the underlying principles of work sampling, control charts, and multivariate analysis. The sampling is performed to observe the occurrence of conditions which may be becoming hazardous in a given system. These building blocks of hazards, which we have called dendritics, could result in an accident, system malfunction, or unacceptable risk conditions. The data collected is plotted to generate the appropriate control chart, which depends on the characteristics of the given system and the protection desired. Based on the pattern of the control chart, a system ‘under control’ is not disturbed whereas a system ‘out of control’ is investigated for potential conditions becoming hazardous. Then appropriate steps are taken to eliminate or control these conditions in order to maintain a desired safety status of the system. The continuously running characteristic of this model allows for the verification that the corrective measures taken to ameliorate the ‘out of control’ conditions were satisfactory or whether more proactive action is required. The results provided by the predictive model were validated with historical safety data.     

Safety climate, attitudes and risk perception in Norsk Hydro

The aims of this paper are to test mental images of risk and to present some results of a survey of safety climate, employee attitudes, risk perception and behaviour among employees within the industrial company Norsk Hydro. Two mental images were tested. They are both based on the assumption that it is possible to make a distinction between cognitive and affective processes involved in risk perception. The first model was the ‘rationalistic’ approach, which assumes that the affective component of risk perception is influenced by cognitive judgements. The justification for the second model is found in Zajonc's [Zajonc, R.B., 1980. Feeling and thinking. Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist 35 (2), 151–175] conclusion that emotions are precognitive. In this model, entitled the ‘mental imagery’ approach, emotion is seen as the driving force affecting cognition of risk and safety. Employees at 13 plants have answered a self-completion questionnaire. The plants belonged to the agricultural, aluminium, magnesium and petrochemical divisions within Norsk Hydro. A total of 731 respondents replied to the questionnaire. The mental imagery approach was somewhat better fitted to the data than a rationalistic approach. Safety climate and employee attitudes towards safety and accident prevention contributed significantly to the variance in employee occupational risk behaviour. Worry and the extent to which the employee felt safe/unsafe was the most important predictor for the cognitive judgement of risk. Acceptability of rule violations seemed to be the most important predictor of behaviour, probably because acceptability also affected how often the respondents took chances and broke safety rules.