Using a driving simulator to identify older drivers at inflated risk of motor vehicle crashes

PROBLEM: To develop appropriate assessment criteria to measure the performance of older drivers using an interactive PC-based driving simulator, and to determine which measures were associated with the occurrence of motor-vehicle crash. METHOD: One hundred and twenty-nine older drivers residing in a metropolitan city volunteered to participate in this retrospective cohort study. Using the driving simulator, appropriate driving tasks were devised to test the older drivers, whose performances were assessed by 10 reliable assessment criteria. Logistic regression analysis was then undertaken to determine those criteria that influence the self-reported crash outcome. RESULTS: As expected, driving skill of older drivers was found to decline with age. Over 60% of the sample participants reported having at least one motor-vehicle crash during the past year. Adjusting for age in a logistic regression analysis, the cognitive abilities associated with the crash occurrence were working memory, decision making under pressure of time, and confidence in driving at high speed. SUMMARY: The findings of this retrospective study indicated those individuals at inflated risk of vehicle crashes could be identified using the PC-based interactive driving simulator. Prospective studies need to be undertaken to determine whether the driving simulator can predict future crash events. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study demonstrated an economical driving simulator approach to screen out problematic or unsafe older drivers before a more detailed but expensive road test is considered.     

Risk analysis in research environment – Part II: Weighting Lab Criticity Index using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

A new methodology for risk analysis, namely Laboratory Assessment and Risk Analysis – LARA, is proposed in the companion paper to assess risks in research/academia environment. The core of this methodology relies on defining the adequate role player factors to assess risks in research environment and their mathematical combination to quantify and assess the risk. Quantitative outcome of the analysis results in a Lab Criticity Index – LCI, constructed as a rather comprehensive function of probability, severity, risk worsening factors, research specificities and Hazard Detectability. Even though the LCI model can be used at this stage, its “surjective” and “linear” properties were outlined; the non differentiation between LCI factors remains to be solved.The present article addresses this problematic, bringing a solution based on a Multicriteria Decision Making – MCDM modeling, namely Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP. This leads to a refined criticity index being “bijective” and unique for every combination of factors.A preliminary risk assessment based on the LARA methodology is discussed for a research lab working with lasers.     

生态驾驶行为对单个小汽车运行状态的综合影响分析

为了进一步明确我国实际道路交通条件下生态驾驶行为对车辆运行状态的综合影响,助力生态驾驶行为推广应用策略,结合驾驶模拟和实车驾驶试验,重点分析了生态驾驶行为对单个小汽车能耗、排放及运行效率的影响。结果表明:生态驾驶行为能有效降低机动车能耗和尾气排放;同时,相同条件下,生态驾驶行为降低车辆能耗的比例远大于车辆行驶时间增加的比例。因此,对单个小汽车而言,生态驾驶行为的节能效益大于其对车辆运行效率的影响。     

An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)

The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers. Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions (Initiators), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand (Enablers). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a stated period of time. In order to characterize the basic events, interval-valued information supplied by experts are properly aggregated and propagated to the top. To this purpose, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of evidence is proposed as a more appropriate mathematical framework than the classical probabilistic one. The proposed methodology, applied to a real industrial scenario, can be considered a helpful tool to support risk managers working in industrial plants.     

民航维修人员习惯性违章行为的SD建模研究

掌握习惯性违章行为形成过程中的反馈机制和发展规律可以为消除习惯性违章行为提供理论依据。基于系统动力学(SD)理论,建立了民航机务维修人员习惯性违章行为的动态模型,利用VENSIM软件模拟仿真。结果表明,惩罚力度从第1等级(惩罚力度由小到大分别对应1~10等级)到第6等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次减小,从第6等级到第10等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次增加。此外习惯性违章行为活跃水平对工作单卡的合理程度敏感性最强,组织应优先提高工作单卡的合理程度。     

Change in frontline supervisors’ safety leadership practices after participating in a leadership training program: Does company size matter?

Introduction: The majority of construction companies are small businesses and small business often lack the resources needed to ensure that their supervisors have the safety leadership skills to build and maintain a strong jobsite safety climate. The Foundations for Safety Leadership (FSL) training program was designed to provide frontline leaders in all sized companies with safety leadership skills. This paper examines the impact of the FSL training by size of business. Methods: Leaders, defined as foremen or other frontline supervisors, from small, medium, and large construction companies were recruited to participate in a study to evaluate the degree to which the FSL changed their understanding and use of the leadership skills, safety practices and crew reporting of safety-related conditions. We used linear mixed modeling methods to analyze pre-post training survey data. Results: Prior to the training, leaders from small and medium sized companies reported using safety leadership skills less frequently than those from large ones. After the training, regardless of business size, we observed that the FSL training improved leaders understanding of safety leadership skills from immediately before to immediately after the training. Additionally, leaders reported greater use of safety leadership skills, safety practices, and crew reporting of safety-related conditions from before to two-weeks after the training. However, those from small and medium sized companies reported the greatest improvement in their use of safety leadership skills. Conclusions: The FSL training improves safety leadership outcomes regardless of the size company for which the leader worked. However, the FSL may be even more effective at improving the safety leadership skills of leaders working for smaller sized construction companies or those with lower baseline levels of safety leadership skills. Practical applications: The majority of construction companies employ a small number of employees and therefore may not have the resources to provide their frontline leaders with the leadership training they need to be effective leaders who can create a strong jobsite safety climate. The Foundations for Safety Leadership (FSL) training can help fill this gap.     

基于小波神经网络的瓦斯涌出量预测研究

准确地预测瓦斯涌出量对于指导矿井设计和安全生产有重要意义,而瓦斯涌出量是一个与自然因素及开采技术等多因素有关的非线性建模问题。鉴于传统神经网络方法解决非线性问题收敛速度慢,易陷入局部最优解的缺陷,笔者提出一种既充分利用小波变换的时频局部化性质,又能结合神经网络的自学习能力的小波神经网络预测瓦斯涌出量的方法,并建立了预测模型。在此基础上,采用Delphi语言,设计了小波/BP神经网络仿真器。通过实例分析表明该方法较传统神经网络收敛迅速,预测精度高。     

航空安全员心理素质指标研究

为降低因航空安全员心理素质不过关而导致的不安全事件,先对航空安全员的基本工作能力与应急处置能力进行了分析,确定出合格航空安全员所必需的心理素质指标;然后设计"航空安全员心理素质调查问卷",并选取国内多家航空公司在职航空安全员为调查对象,对回收有效的问卷进行信、效度检验以验证指标的合理性;再采用结构方程模型确定各指标权重。结果表明,航空安全员心理素质模型由4个一级指标、17个二级指标构成,其中对航空安全员心理素质影响最大的是人格特征,其次是社会适应力、交际能力和认知能力。     

基于VDI2198循环的内燃叉车实际作业排放特性

为了分析实际作业的叉车排放特征,基于VDI2198循环,采用车载排放测试系统(PEMS)对某基本型配备非道路国Ⅲ柴油发动机叉车进行前进、后退、货物举升、货物下降4种作业工况下的实车道路排放测试。结果表明,各排放物的排放速率在前进、货物举升和货物下降工况下处于较高水平,在后退工况下处于较低水平。CO_2、NO_x基于时间的排放因子在前进工况下最高,其原因是在前进工况下发动机处于合理转速工作区,进气充足,燃料燃烧较为充分,达到了高温富氧条件;CO、PN基于时间的排放因子在货物举升工况下最高,其原因是举升工况下发动机转速过高,进气不足、喷油量增加导致大量燃料不完全燃烧。后退工况下较低的CO_2基于时间排放因子,使得各污染物基于CO_2当量排放因子在后退工况下较高。与美国NONROAD模型中同类叉车排放水平对比,试验叉车的CO排放水平远低于Tier4A之前的排放水平,远高于Tier4排放水平;NO_x的排放水平低于Tier4A之前的排放水平,稍高于Tier4的排放水平。适度超载对排放影响较小,冷起动对排放影响较大。坡度增加对排放影响显著,坡度从0(平地)增至10%,CO、NO_x、PN、CO_2基于里程的排放因子分别增加了54%、19%、100%、27%;坡度从10%增加至15%,CO、NO_x、PN、CO_2基于里程的排放因子分别增加了41%、50%、51%、56%。     

工程系统的安全分析与风险管理

安全性是许多工程系统设计、研制和运行时要考虑的一项重要内容,其中安全分析和风险管理是两项主要的工作。在基于事故场景的安全性模型的基础上。研究了工程系统的安全分析和风险管理技术方法,提出了进行安全分析和风险管理的工作流程。     

The validity of a low-cost simulator for the assessment of the effects of in-vehicle information systems

This study explored the validity of using a low-cost simulator for the assessment of driver distraction arising from the use of an in-vehicle information system. Eighteen participants drove on a rural road whilst carrying out distractor tasks of various levels of difficulty, in both a low-cost simulator (with gaming console steering wheel and pedals with single monitor display) and a medium-cost one (fixed-base, complete vehicle cab, wrap-around visuals). The distractor tasks were presented at identical locations in each of the drives and an identical suite of driver performance and subjective rating measures were elicited to allow a robust comparison between the two simulator environments. As expected, there was a reduction in mean speed when drivers were completing the distraction tasks and this effect was observed in both simulators. However, drivers spent more time at shorter headways in the low-cost version and demonstrated more erratic steering behaviour in the low-cost version. This could be due to a reduced peripheral view and inferior kinaesthetic feedback through the driver controls, but low-cost simulators could play a significant role in the early stages of design and evaluation of in-vehicle information systems.     

安全科学学的初步研究

从安全科学学的高度,论述安全学科的属性为综合属性,并认为开展安全科学学的研究,才能获得更加重要、更具原创性和更加系统性的理论研究成果。笔者从发展安全学科的角度出发,给出了安全科学学、安全科学方法学、安全科学学公理、比较安全学的基本定义和内涵;从安全学科的属性总结出5条安全科学学公理;指出安全科学学的研究,可以以安全科学方法学的研究作为突破口,安全科学方法学的研究可以以比较安全学作为切入点;还从多个角度对安全科学方法学进行了分类;指出现在安全科学基础研究非常薄弱,安全学科的发展需要更多的研究者投入到安全科学的研究领域中。笔者的论文是第一篇比较系统开展安全科学学研究的论文,对安全学科的发展具有理论指导作用。     

A fuzzy multi-attribute model for risk evaluation in workplaces

Risk assessment constitutes a critical phase of the safety management process. It basically consists of evaluating the risks involved in the execution of working activities, so as to provide the managers with information suitable to address intervention measures. The most important activity in risk assessment is the risk evaluation task but, despite its importance, national and international regulations have never formalized a standard methodology for addressing it, leaving companies complete freedom to adopt the approach they consider appropriate. As a consequence, companies generally settle on the use of simple methodologies which frequently are not able to emphasize all the main aspects affecting risk in the workplace and to produce a precise ranking of hazardous activities. In this paper, a new methodology for risk evaluation is then proposed with the aim to overcome limitations of the classical approaches. In particular, new factors are introduced to take into account effects of human behavior and environment on risk level, other than the classical injury magnitude and occurrence probability of an accident. The proposed methodology also integrates an estimative approach based on the fuzzy logic theory, which permits more coherence in the evaluation process, producing a very suitable final rank of hazardous activities. Finally, an actual case study is reported to show the capabilities of the new risk evaluation model.     

列车安全操纵仿真系统的研究

探讨了列车牵引力学条件下的铁路列车安全操纵问题 ,开发了一套可用于不同运行条件下的列车安全操纵仿真软件。重点介绍了系统的主体结构、功能模块以及列车安全操纵的计算模型 ,详细描述了在一个时间步长内如何确定列车的工况、手柄位以及停车制动的仿真算法 ,并在实际线路上对电力机车进行了实例分析。系统计算速度快 ,人工干预方便 ,效果良好 ,可以满足现场的实际需求。     

Interactive mechanism of working environments and construction behaviors with cognitive work analysis: an elevator installation case study

Unsafe behavior is a leading factor in accidents, and the working environment significantly affects behaviors. However, few studies have focused on detailed mechanisms for addressing unsafe behaviors resulting from environmental constraints. This study aims to delineate these mechanisms using cognitive work analysis (CWA) for an elevator installation case study. Elevator installation was selected for study because it involves operations at heights: falls from heights remain a major cause of construction worker mortality. This study adopts a mixed research approach based on three research methodology stages. This research deconstructs the details of the working environment, the workers’ decision-making processes, the strategies chosen given environmental conditions and the conceptual model for workers’ behaviors, which jointly depict environment–behavior mechanisms at length. By applying CWA to the construction industry, environmental constraints can easily be identified, and targeted engineering suggestions can be generated.     

A methodology for assessment of long-term exposure to whole-body vibrations in vehicle drivers to propose preventive safety measures

Introduction: The appearance of musculoskeletal disorders (MDs) in professional drivers due to exposition to whole-body vibration (WBV) makes it relevant to assess this exposure. The European Directive 2002/44/EC has two methods to evaluate exposure to WBV (defined in ISO2631-1:2008). These methods evaluate the exposure associated with an 8-hour working day; however, MDs due to WBV could also be caused by accumulated exposure to vibrations over long term, and hence, the methods defined in the European directive may be limited in their ability to ensure the safety of workers exposed to WBV throughout their years of employment. Method: A detailed comparison and discussion of methods defined in the European Directive and the ISO2631-5:2018 was used as a starting point of the main results of this paper. On this basis, a new methodology for the management and organization of preventive measures is proposed to consider the assessment of ISO2631-5:2018 standard and the full working life of workers. Experimental data to assess exposure to WBV in heavy equipment vehicle (HEV) drivers under different road surface conditions and range of velocities were considered to illustrate the process of the proposed methodology. Results: The methods defined in the standards provide different assessments leading to a different possible consideration of safe operations when the risks associated with them may actually be high. The proposed methodology can be used with the aim of ensuring safety of workers throughout their working lives and providing an easy implementation of the calculations of ISO2631-5:2018 standard. Conclusions: A procedure to assess the health risk probability to which the HEV worker is exposed in terms of the exposure years and a different range of operational vehicle speeds is proposed and exemplified with a study case. Practical applications: This study provides a practical tool for the management of WBV exposure related to work-tasks in HEV drivers. Safety managers should consider the global exposition to WBV throughout their working life, and this research provides an easy tool to accomplish it.     

Influence of visual clutter on the effect of navigated safety inspection: a case study on elevator installation

Introduction. Navigated safety inspection based on task-specific checklists can increase the hazard detection rate, theoretically with interference from scene complexity. Visual clutter, a proxy of scene complexity, can theoretically impair visual search performance, but its impact on the effect of safety inspection performance remains to be explored for the optimization of navigated inspection. This research aims to explore whether the relationship between working memory and hazard detection rate is moderated by visual clutter. Methods. Based on a perceptive model of hazard detection, we: (a) developed a mathematical influence model for construction hazard detection; (b) designed an experiment to observe the performance of hazard detection rate with adjusted working memory under different levels of visual clutter, while using an eye-tracking device to observe participants’ visual search processes; (c) utilized logistic regression to analyze the developed model under various visual clutter. Conclusion. The effect of a strengthened working memory on the detection rate through increased search efficiency is more apparent in high visual clutter. This study confirms the role of visual clutter in construction-navigated inspections, thus serving as a foundation for the optimization of inspection planning.     

Comparative study of the methodologies based on Standard UNE 60079/10/1 and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to determine zonal reach of gas-generated Atex explosive atmospheres

This study presents two methodologies which can be used to determine the classification and extended area of hazardous zones caused by gas, vapours and mists. The first is based on UNE 60079/10/1: Electrical apparatus for explosive gas atmospheres – Part 10: Classification of hazardous areas, whilst the second is developed on the basis of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using the FLUENT software application. Both methodologies were applied in the same case study of differing leakage components from a dairy farm steam boiler room fuelled by liquid natural gas (LNG).The results obtained show that CFD methodology is a powerful tool with a significant capacity for determining the size of an explosive atmosphere for a broad range of exhaust sources. This methodology offers more conservative results than those obtained from the analytical methodology recommended in Standard UNE 60079/10/1. Results obtained using CFD are more useful in enabling the study of turbulence phenomena, boundaries, and diverse initial and contour conditions.In contrast, the Standard UNE 60079/10/1 methodology is less conservative and aims at determining the hypothetical volume V_z of the explosive atmosphere. This volume is a measurement of the ventilation efficiency which is in turn proportional to a massive gas release through an exhaust source divided by the number of air changes in the enclosed area.From the results obtained, it can be confirmed that Standard UNE 60079/10/1 should be revised.