Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis

Failure of oil and gas transmission pipelines was analyzed by fault tree analysis in this paper. According to failure modes of pipeline: leakage and rupture, a fault tree of the pipeline was constructed. Fifty-five minimal cut sets of the fault tree had been achieved by qualitative analysis, while the failure probability of top event and the important analyses of basic events were evaluated by quantitative analysis. In conventional fault tree analysis, probabilities of the basic events were treated as precise values, which could not reflect real situation of system because of ambiguity and imprecision of some basic events. In order to overcome this disadvantage, a new method was proposed which combined expert elicitation with fuzzy set theories to evaluate probability of the events. As an example, failure probability of pipeline installation was assessed by using the proposed method, achieving its fuzzy failure probability of 6.4603×10⁻³. The method given in this article is effective to treat fuzzy events of FTA.     

Effects of Dram Shop,Responsible Beverage Service Training,and State Alcohol Control Laws on Underage Drinking Driver Fatal Crash Ratios

Objectives: In this study, we aimed to determine whether three minimum legal drinking age 21 (MLDA-21) laws—dram shop liability, responsible beverage service (RBS) training, and state control of alcohol sales—have had an impact on underage drinking and driving fatal crashes using annual state-level data, and compared states with strong laws to those with weak laws to examine their effect on beer consumption and fatal crash ratios.

Methods: Using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we calculated the ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 involved in fatal crashes as our key outcome measure. We used structural equation modeling to evaluate the three MLDA-21 laws. We controlled for covariates known to impact fatal crashes including: 17 additional MLDA-21 laws; administrative license revocation; blood alcohol concentration limits of.08 and.10 for driving; seat belt laws; sobriety checkpoint frequency; unemployment rates; and vehicle miles traveled. Outcome variables, in addition to the fatal crash ratios of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 included state per capita beer consumption.

Results: Dram shop liability laws were associated with a 2.4% total effect decrease (direct effects: β =.019, p =.018). Similarly, RBS training laws were associated with a 3.6% total effect decrease (direct effect: β =.048, p =.001) in the ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 involved in fatal crashes. There was a significant relationship between dram shop liability law strength and per capita beer consumption, F (4, 1528) = 24.32, p <.001, partial η² =.016, showing states with strong dram shop liability laws (Mean (M) = 1.276) averaging significantly lower per capita beer consumption than states with weak laws (M = 1.340).

Conclusions: Dram shop liability laws and RBS laws were both associated with significantly reduced per capita beer consumption and fatal crash ratios. In practical terms, this means that dram shop liability laws are currently associated with saving an estimated 64 lives in the 45 jurisdictions that currently have the law. If the remaining 6 states adopted the dram shop law, an additional 9 lives could potentially be saved annually. Similarly, RBS training laws are associated with saving an estimated 83 lives in the 37 jurisdictions that currently have the laws. If the remaining 14 states adopted these RBS training laws, we estimate that an additional 28 lives could potentially be saved.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Exposure to Methyl Methacrylate and Its Subjective Symptoms Among Dental Technicians,Tehran, Iran

Exposure to methyl methacrylate (MMA), total dust and health symptoms were investigated in 20 dental laboratories located in Tehran, Iran. Time-weighted average (TWA) of MMA and peak concentrations were determined, using XAD-2 tubes followed by GC-ID analysis. Total dusts were evaluated gravimetrically. Health symptoms were asked using a questionnaire. TWA for technicians with direct and indirect exposure to MMA were 327.28 ± 79.42 and 282.9 ± 41.84 mg/m³ , respectively. Peak concentration of MMA for those technicians were 337.0 ± 36.81 and 328.88 ± 45.40 mg/m³, respectively.

There were no significant differences between TWA of MMA and peak concentration in different weekly workdays; however, within-day variations were observed (P < .05).

TWA of MMA and peak concentration correlation with the laboratory volume were 0.61-0.65. Dust exposure of technicians was 2.35 ± 2.70 mg/m³. Cough and skin dryness were the common health symptoms. Smoking and asbestos exposure history were factors influencing cough prevalence (p < .05).

It is concluded that the current Short-Term Exposure Limit (STEL) is not low enough to protect technicians against the adverse effects caused by MMA.     

基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级研究

以化工企业内涉及危险物质的装置、设施而构成的危险源为研究对象,在简要分析重大危险源评价分级的作用与方法的基础上,针对中小型化工企业,提出基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级概念。通过计算危险源引发事故的概率和事故后果来确定危险源的风险值,并将其分为4个等级,指导企业制定合适的安全管理制度、使用恰当的安全技术措施,以最小化的代价确保危险源安全运行,从而提高中小型化工企业的危险源管理水平。     

The direct costs of fatal and non-fatal falls among older adults — United States

IntroductionThis study sought to estimate the incidence, average cost, and total direct medical costs for fatal and non-fatal fall injuries in hospital, ED, and out-patient settings among U.S. adults aged 65 or older in 2012, by sex and age group and to report total direct medical costs for falls inflated to 2015 dollars.MethodIncidence data came from the 2012 National Vital Statistics System, 2012 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2012 Health Care Utilization Program National Emergency Department Sample, and 2007 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Costs for fatal falls were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System; costs for non-fatal falls were based on claims from the 1998/1999 Medicare fee-for-service 5% Standard Analytical Files. Costs were inflated to 2015 estimates using the health care component of the Personal Consumption Expenditure index.ResultsIn 2012, there were 24,190 fatal and 3.2 million medically treated non-fatal fall related injuries. Direct medical costs totaled $616.5 million for fatal and $30.3 billion for non-fatal injuries in 2012 and rose to $637.5 million and $31.3 billion, respectively, in 2015. Fall incidence as well as total cost increased with age and were higher among women.ConclusionMedically treated falls among older adults, especially among older women, are associated with substantial economic costs.Practical applicationWidely implementing evidence-based interventions for fall prevention is essential to decrease the incidence and healthcare costs associated with these injuries.     

Dynamic safety analysis of process systems with an application to a cryogenic ammonia storage tank

A method for calculating the dynamic reliability of safety systems and its application to a refrigerated liquid cryogenic ammonia storage tank is presented. The method is based on the theory of Markov chains and can model dynamic phenomena of the process and its safety systems. It offers the capability of modelling realistically the competing process of repairing failed safety systems and the exceeding of safe limits by some critical physical parameters of the process. The results of the Markovian analysis are compared to those of the classical Fault Tree/Event Tree methods and it is shown that the proposed method offers a substantial improvement over the classical approach. The probability of failure from overpressure of a cryogenic ammonia storage tank depends in general on the level of the ammonia in the tank at the time of accident initiation. Assuming a uniform distribution for the ammonia level in the tank, the average upper and lower limits for the failure probability over a year provided by the FT/ET methods span three orders of magnitude [1.4×10⁻¹–1.0×10⁻⁴] depending on whether repair is considered or not. The proposed approach realistically determines this failure probability at 3.3×10⁻³. Additional results from specific levels of ammonia are also provided.     

A new approach to quantitative assessment of reliability of passive systems

The objective of this paper is to show how probabilistic reliability can be assessed for complex systems in the absence of statistical data on their operating experience, based on performance evaluation of the dominant underlying physical processes. The approach is to distinguish between functional and performance probabilities when dealing with the quantification of the overall probability of a system to perform a given function in a given period of time (reliability). In the case of systems where sufficient statistical operating experience data are available, one can focus the quantitative evaluation entirely on the assessment of the functional probability for a given active item (e.g. a pump) by assuming that the specification, layout, construction and installation is such that the item is providing the assigned performance, e.g. in the form of generating the required flow rate. This is how traditional probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) focus the reliability analysis for the various safety features on the calculation of values for the availability per demand. In contrast, for various systems relevant in advanced technical applications, such as passive safety features in innovative reactor designs, it is essential to evaluate both functional and performance probabilities explicitly and combine the two probabilities later on. This is of course due to the strong reliance of passive safety systems on inherent physical principles. In practice, this means that, for example, in case of a passive cooling system based on natural circulation of a given medium, one has to evaluate and to assess the probability to have a medium condition and a flow rate such that a cladding temperature, represented by a probability distribution, can be hold at a required level. A practical example of this method is given for the case of the reliability assessment of a residual passive heat removal system. General conclusions are drawn regarding reliability estimation of complex, interconnected systems in the absence of statistical performance data, such as for infrastructures.     

Prediction of probability of fatality due to brain injury in traffic accidents

Abstract

Objective: Fatal brain injuries result from physiological changes in brain tissues, subsequent to primary damage caused by head impact. Although efforts have been made in past studies to estimate the probability of brain injury, none of them involved prediction of such physiological changes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the fatality prediction capability of a novel approach that predicts an increase in intracranial pressure (ICP) due to primary head injury to estimate the fatality rate using clinical data that correlate ICP with fatality rate.

Methods: A total of 12 sets of head acceleration time histories were used to represent no, severe, and fatal brain injury. They were obtained from the literature presenting head kinematics data in noninjurious volunteer sled tests or from accident reconstruction for severe and fatal injury cases. These were first applied to a Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) head–brain model to predict nodal displacement time histories of the brain, which were then fed into FEBio to predict ICP. A Weibull distribution was applied to the data for the relationship between fatality rate and ICP obtained from a clinical paper to estimate fatality rate from ICP (procedure A). Fatality rate was also estimated by applying the temporal and spatial maximum value of maximum principal strain (MPS_max) obtained from the GHBMC simulation to an injury probability function for MPS_max (procedure B). Estimated fatality rates were compared between the 2 procedures.

Results: Both procedures estimated higher average fatality rate for higher injury severity. The average fatality rate for procedure A without ischemia representation and procedure B was 72.4 and 51.0% for the fatal injury group and 8.2 and 21.7% for the severe injury group, respectively, showing that procedure A provides more distinct classification between fatal and nonfatal brain injury. It was also found that representation of ischemia in procedure A provides results sensitive to injury severity and impact conditions, requiring further validation of the initial estimate for the relationship between brain compression and ischemic cell death.

Conclusions: Prediction of the probability of fatality by means of a combination of simulations of the primary brain deformation and subsequent ICP increase was found to be more distinct compared to the prediction of primary injury alone combined with the injury probability function from a past study in the select 12 head impact cases.     

Experimental analysis of radiographer exposure to the static field from a 1.5-T magnetic resonance imaging machine

Introduction. This study measures the exposure of occupational therapists from a 1.5-T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machine. Method. A total of 14 time-series on each of the chest, head and hand were taken before and after different MRI procedures. The peak values were noted in each case together with an average of all data recorded in the time-series. Results. The highest exposure recorded was observed on the hand, followed by the head and the chest. The overall maximum exposure (1479.40?mT) recorded was observed on the hand during a change of coil. It was also observed that the recorded exposure of experienced radiographers working in the MRI environment was less than that of junior staff due to different practices. Conclusion. This study is of significant importance in Malta since it is the first conducted in a MRI environment, especially because the results were compared with limits imposed by EU Directive 2013/35/EU which has to be implemented by July 2016.     

Alcohol policy and fatal alcohol-related crashes in Finland 2000–2016

Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between annual alcohol consumption per capita/alcohol price index and the number of alcohol-related fatal motor vehicle accidents (AFMVAs). We were particularly interested in whether a tax reduction in 2004 increased the number of alcohol-related accidents.

Method: The data consisted of all fatal motor vehicle accidents (FMVAs) during the years 2000–2016 obtained from a database maintained by the Finnish Crash Data Institute (OTI). The data included all fatally injured drivers. We compared the OTI data to official statistics on annual alcohol consumption and the alcohol price index.

Results: There were 3,447 fatally injured drivers, of which 25% (n = 869) were intoxicated (blood alcohol concentration [BAC] ≥ 0.05%). After the reduction of the alcohol tax in 2004, the alcohol consumption rose 12.4% from 2003 to 2005 and AFMVAs rose 38%. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.7000, P < .018) between the recorded consumption of alcohol and the number of AFMVAs. There was a strong negative correlation between AFMVAs and the combined (retail + restaurant sales) alcohol price index (r = ?0.7863, P = .0005). A linear mixed-effects model showed that a 1-L increase in total alcohol consumption per capita per year increases AFMVAs by 10.6 and a one-unit increase in the price index decreases AFMVAs by 1.8 per year.

Conclusions: The correlation between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related crashes should be considered when making political decisions regarding alcohol price and availability. Any further liberalization of the alcohol policy would likely lead to an increase in alcohol-related fatal motor vehicle accidents. Similar consequences are likely to occur with drugs. Alcohol price policy is an effective way to improve road safety, but other measures taken to prevent FMVAs also seem to reduce the prevalence of AFMVAs.     

Method for Evaluating Germicidal Ultraviolet Inactivation of Biocontaminated Surfaces

Safety issues related to work-site conditions often deal with potential worker exposure to infectious airborne microorganisms due to their dissemination in indoor air and contamination of surfaces. Germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) radiation is used in health-care settings and other occupational environments for microbial inactivation. In this study, a new methodology for determining the efficiency of GUV microbial inactivation of surfaces was developed and evaluated. The method utilizes identical chambers in which test microorganisms are irradiated on agar surfaces at different humidity and irradiation intensity levels. The effects of GUV intensity and exposure time on microbial inactivation were examined for Micrococcus luteus and Serratia marcescens. It was found that at low humidity levels (20–25%) both organisms can be inactivated with at least 95% efficiency if the GUV intensity exceeds 50 μW/cm² for at least 3-5 min (corresponding to a dose of ~ 10 mJ/cm²). The radiation dose needed for effective inactivation of S. marcescens, as measured by a UV meter near the microbial sample, was found not to be affected by the humidity level, whereas that of M. luteus increased at higher humidities. The findings of this study can be used to determine sufficient GUV inactivation doses for occupational environments with various microbial contaminations.     

Trends and characteristics of animal-vehicle collisions in the United States

Introduction

Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness.

Method

AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets.

Results

Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes.

Conclusion

AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions.

Impact on Industry

The association between speed limit and crash risk in darkness suggests that AVC risk might be reduced with countermeasures that improve a driver's forward view of the road.     

Reactions to physically dangerous work: A conceptual and empirical analysis

This study addressed some conceptual issues central to understanding human reactions to dangerous settings and empirically explored the meaning of physically dangerous work in three different occupational groups (street patrol officers, n=96; investigators, n=21; and clerical and support service workers, n=60) practicing in the same organizational setting (city police department). Objective hazards, estimated with occupational risk statistics, explained 56 per cent of the variation in experienced physical danger which, in turn, significantly heightened emotional exhaustion, dissatisfaction with pay, and disaffection from the employing organization, in the street patrol officer group only, perceived physical danger significantly correlated with task variety, task significance and feedback. The data are interpreted to mean that for street patrol officers, experienced physical danger adds a modicum of enrichment and significance to the work itself. One theme of the analysis is that potentially stigmatic features of the work can be transformed into socially meaningful illusions that enhance the personal dignity of the performer (cf. Hughes, 1958). However, the dominant theme is that physically dangerous work produces fear and related affective distress. Further research on this topic is recommended because of the affective and behavioral consequences of perceived physical danger and also because definitions and meanings of dangerous work are socially, politically and morally important.     

Trends in occupational injuries and fatality in Turkey

Introduction. The aim of this study was to evaluate the trend of occupational injuries in Turkey using epidemiologic criteria such as incidence mortality and fatality/all injuries recorded – rates. Materials and methods. Safety and health data were obtained from the Annual Statistic Books of the Social Insurance Institution (1988–2006) and Social Security Institution (2007–2011) of Turkey. Results. The results from the official data showed that although total employment is increasing the number of occupational injuries and incidence and mortality rates are decreasing. The results also demonstrate that occupational fatality/all injuries recorded – rate is increasing. The fatality/all injuries recorded – rate per 1000 injuries increased to 25.5 in 2011 from 8.6 in 1988. Each work day an average of five people died because of occupational injuries. Discussion and conclusions. The fatality/all injuries recorded – rate (the number of fatal cases per 1000 occupational injuries) is an important indicator of the injury rate for a country. Systems of occupational injury and illness surveillance constitute a critical resource for the management and reduction of occupational injuries and illness.     

A multinomial logit model of motorcycle crash severity at Australian intersections

Introduction: Motorcyclists are exposed to more fatalities and severe injuries per mile of travel as compared to other vehicle drivers. Moreover, crashes that take place at intersections are more likely to result in serious or fatal injuries as compared to those that occur at non-intersections. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the contributing factors to motorcycle crash severity at intersections. Method: A data set of 7,714 motorcycle crashes at intersections in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2018. The multinomial logit model was used for evaluating the motorcycle crashes. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: minor injury, serious injury and fatal injury. The risk factors consisted of four major categories: motorcyclist characteristics, environmental characteristics, intersection characteristics and crash characteristics. Results: The results of the model demonstrated that certain factors increased the probability of fatal injuries. These factors were: motorcyclists aged over 59 years, weekend crashes, midnight/early morning crashes, morning rush hours crashes, multiple vehicles involved in the crash, t-intersections, crashes in towns, crashes in rural areas, stop or give-way intersections, roundabouts, and uncontrolled intersections. By contrast, factors such as female motorcyclists, snowy or stormy or foggy weather, rainy weather, evening rush hours crashes, and unpaved roads reduced the probability of fatal injuries. Practical Applications: The results from our study demonstrated that certain treatment measures for t-intersections may reduce the probability of fatal injuries. An effective way for improving the safety of stop or give-way intersections and uncontrolled intersections could be to convert them to all-way stop controls. Further, it is recommended to educate the older riders that with ageing, there are physiological changes that occur within the body which can increase both crash likelihood and injury severity.     

Identification of Ergonomic-Related Hazards in an Industrial Sample Using the National Occupational Exposure Survey

The National Occupational Exposure Survey (NOES) was used to determine probabilities for 4 potential physical-agent and 10 potential ergonomic-related exposure hazards among a representative sample of U.S. industries. Potential physical-agent hazard exposures, principally whole-body and segmental vibration, were highest among railroad and heavy construction industries. Several construction industries had high probabilities of potential ergonomic-related exposure hazards, especially to the back and upper extremities.

Establishments with 100 to 249 employees had the highest probability of potential exposures to the 2 types of hazards. Measures of safety and health climate did not differ consistently between high-hazard and low-hazard establishments. The approach taken in this paper may be used to help identify highrisk industries, evaluate interventions, and develop inspection strategies.     

Evaluating the blue-light hazard from solid state lighting

Purpose. New light sources including light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have elicited questions about retinal damage, including the blue-light hazard. Some organizations have recommended avoiding using LEDs with correlated color temperatures exceeding 3000?K, since they tend to produce greater short-wavelength energy. This article provides quantitative comparisons among light sources and use cases as they affect the blue-light hazard. Methods. The spectral radiant power characteristics of incandescent, fluorescent, LED and daylight sources were evaluated in terms of blue-light hazard using standard procedures for phakic, aphakic and pseudophakic eyes. Results. Under most use cases, LEDs do not exhibit greater risk for the blue-light hazard than other sources (e.g., incandescent). Because they generally produce little to no ultraviolet energy, LEDs often present less risk to aphakic eyes. Conclusions. LEDs present no special concerns for the blue-light hazard over some other common sources in typical use cases because photophobic responses limit exposure to bright sources. Where photophobic responses might not occur (e.g., eye surgery patients or premature infants) or where individuals suppress these responses (e.g., stage actors), caution is necessary. Evidence remains inconsistent regarding the risk of human retinal damage from long-term exposures to light insufficient to reach acute blue-light hazard thresholds.     

CEQAT-DGHS interlaboratory tests for chemical safety: Validation of laboratory test methods by determining the measurement uncertainty and probability of incorrect classification including so-called “Shark profiles”

Laboratory test results are of vital importance for correctly classifying and labelling chemicals as “hazardous” as defined in the UN Globally Harmonized System (GHS)/EC CLP Regulation or as “dangerous goods” as defined in the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods. Interlaboratory tests play a decisive role in assessing the reliability of laboratory test results. Interlaboratory tests performed over the last 10 years have examined different laboratory test methods. After analysing the results of these interlaboratory tests, the following conclusions can be drawn:1There is a need for improvement and validation for all laboratory test methods examined.2To avoid any discrepancy concerning the classification and labelling of chemicals, the use of validated laboratory test methods should be state of the art, with the results accompanied by the measurement uncertainty and (if applicable) the probability of incorrect classification.This paper addresses the probability of correct/incorrect classification (for example, as dangerous goods) on the basis of the measurement deviation obtained from interlaboratory tests performed by the Centre for quality assurance for testing of dangerous goods and hazardous substances (CEQAT-DGHS) to validate laboratory test methods. This paper outlines typical results (e.g. so-called “Shark profiles” – the probability of incorrect classification as a function of the true value estimated from interlaboratory test data) as well as general conclusions and steps to be taken to guarantee that laboratory test results are fit for purpose and of high quality.