HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

终端区飞行冲突事件情景演变网络构建研究

为了控制终端区飞行冲突的风险,基于复杂网络,将飞行冲突的情景演变过程转化为复杂网络进行分析计算.分析侧向交叉跑道机场的主要安全风险,构建包含527个节点与2644条边的终端区飞行冲突情景演化复杂网络模型;采用无权有向网络中的节点度、度中心性、介数中心性、聚类系数等进行风险分析;采用Dijkstra算法,确定影响飞行冲突...     

高应力大变形软岩巷道“三壳”围岩控制机理及应用

为解决土城煤矿14运输上山软岩巷道变形量大、锚杆索失效严重等技术难题,通过现场调研、室内试验、理论分析、数值模拟及工业性试验等方法,揭示了围岩变形特征以及巷道失稳破坏机理,提出了“三壳”围岩控制理论。基于以上研究,设计了“锚杆锚索+灌浆+钢管混凝土支架”的复合支护方案,建立了基于“三壳”围岩控制理论的“三壳”支护结构体力学模型,计算出设计方案的极限承载能力为2.54 MPa,随后采用 FLAC3D数值模拟软件对设计方案进行模拟分析,验证了方案合理性。最后,该复合支护得到成功运用,现场监测结果表明:巷道顶底板以及两帮变形量均低于100 mm,巷道未发生明显变形,支护效果良好。     

汶川地震十年国际研究的合作与主题态势

为全面认识国际汶川地震研究的合作与主题态势,利用科睿唯安Web of Science数据库采集了3 158篇汶川地震研究论文,使用科学计量学方法对国际汶川地震研究的国家/地区、机构和作者合作网络进行了分析。采用关键词词频和共词分析的方法,对国际汶川地震研究热点、主题类团和新兴主题进行了研究。研究结果表明:关于汶川地震的研究从2008—2009年开始显著增长,之后保持平稳;我国产出量第一,且在汶川地震研究合作中处于国家/地区的核心,与美国、日本和英格兰合作密切;机构层面上,中国科学院和中国地震局位于核心位置;徐锡伟和黄润秋是汶川地震研究中的代表作者;国际汶川地震热点主题涉及了滑坡、泥石流、芦山地震、创伤后应激障碍、地理信息系统、遥感等方面,并围绕高频关键词形成了“地震对人心理的影响（例如PTSD）”、“地理信息系统和遥感技术在汶川地震中应用”、“汶川地震引起的地质灾害和数值分析”以及“龙门山断裂带与汶川和芦山地震”4大主题聚类,其中“地震对人心理的影响（例如PTSD）”和“龙门山断裂带与汶川和芦山地震”是目前活跃的主题聚类。     

Effects of emphasis terminology in warning instructions on compliance intent and understandability

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to examine whether differing terminology in warning directives can influence compliance intentions and understandability. Despite its important role for warning effectiveness, warning instructions has not received much attention in warning research. Emphasis terms that can be used in warning directives were investigated.MethodThree experiments were conducted. In Experiment 1, participants rated a set of 12 warning directive statements consisted of one basic warning directive, which served as the control and the other 11 one- or two-word emphasis phrases that added to a basic directive. In Experiment 2, participants rated 37 emphasizers on compliance intent. In Experiment 3, participants rated the same emphasizers on understandability.ResultsThe first 2 experiments showed substantial differences in compliance intentions depending on the emphasizer used. For example, some terms and phrases (e.g., “urgent”) produced high compliance intent whereas others showed lower compliance intent (e.g., “recommended”). In Experiment 3, some terms were rated as understandable (e.g., “important”), whereas others were rated as somewhat understandable (e.g., “compulsory”).ConclusionThe addition of emphasis terms to the warning directives influenced people's compliance intent and understandability. In addition, significant correlations were found among compliance intent, understandability, and measures of variability.Practical application. The findings from this research could aid warning designers in selecting understandable wording that gives rise to different levels of compliance intentions.     

Shopping online for children: Is safety a consideration?

Introduction: There has been a significant increase in online purchasing and product safety problems have been identified in e-commerce. This study examines consumer behavior and safety perceptions among parents purchasing child products online. Method: A mixed methods approach, including focus groups and a survey with parents, identified key characteristics and behaviors. Cluster analysis was used to determine different population segments (including “Informed,” “Uninformed,” and “Infrequent” consumer groups) based on their frequency of online shopping and search for product information. “Safe” and “Unsafe” behavior groups were identified related to their search for safety information on child products. Logistic regression analysis was used to study the effects of consumer type groups and demographic variables on the chances of being a safer consumer. Results: Findings indicate that child product safety considerations are not a priority for parents when shopping online. Only 62% of the survey respondents indicated that they search for information prior to buying a child product online, of which only 13% of the respondents noted that they search for information on product safety. Risky consumer behaviors were identified including the purchase of imitation products (counterfeit or knockoff products) and autonomous checks for product safety in lieu of safety standards. The logistic regression analysis found that being an “Uninformed Consumer” increases the odds of an individual being an “Unsafe Consumer” by 8.4 times (χ²(11) = 97.33, p < .001). Practical Applications: Design of a social marketing campaign that targets these different population segments to change perceptions and promote safe online purchasing is recommended.     

Parental perceptions of teen driving: Restrictions,worry and influence

IntroductionParents play a critical role in preventing crashes among teens. Research of parental perceptions and concerns regarding teen driving safety is limited. We examined results from the 2013 Summer ConsumerStyles survey that queried parents about restrictions placed on their teen drivers, their perceived level of “worry” about their teen driver’s safety, and influence of parental restrictions regarding their teen’s driving.MethodsWe produced frequency distributions for the number of restrictions imposed, parental “worry,” and influence of rules regarding their teen’s driving, reported by teen’s driving license status (learning to drive or obtained a driver’s license). Response categories were dichotomized because of small cell sizes, and we ran separate log-linear regression models to explore whether imposing all four restrictions on teen drivers was associated with either worry intensity (“a lot” versus “somewhat, not very much or not at all”) or perceived influence of parental rules (“a lot” versus “somewhat, not very much or not at all”).ResultsAmong the 456 parent respondents, 80% reported having restrictions for their teen driver regarding use of safety belts, drinking and driving, cell phones, and text messaging while driving. However, among the 188 parents of licensed teens, only 9% reported having a written parent-teen driving agreement, either currently or in the past. Worrying “a lot” was reported less frequently by parents of newly licensed teens (36%) compared with parents of learning teens (61%).Conclusions and Practical ApplicationsParents report having rules and restrictions for their teen drivers, but only a small percentage formalize the rules and restrictions in a written parent-teen driving agreement. Parents worry less about their teen driver’s safety during the newly licensed phase, when crash risk is high as compared to the learning phase. Further research is needed into how to effectively support parents in supervising and monitoring their teen driver.     

基于HFACS的化工企业火灾爆炸事故人因分析*

为研究化工企业火灾爆炸事故的主要人为因素,以63起火灾爆炸事故案例为样本,构建人为因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）模型,进行火灾爆炸事故人为因素分类统计与分析,并利用卡方检验和比值比分析HFACS模型上下层级间的因果关系。结果表明:HFACS模型中上下层级人为因素间存在显著的因果关系,层级1中的“不良的组织氛围”及“组织过程漏洞”和层级2中“监督不充分”在HFACS模型中可以显著增大事故发生的可能性,且“资源管理漏洞”、“不良的组织氛围”、“组织过程漏洞”→“监督不充分”→“人员因素”→“违规”是引发事故的关键路径,并根据HFACS模型中引发事故的关键路径及其人为因素的主要表现形式,提出针对性的化工企业火灾爆炸事故预防措施。     

An investigation of the relationship between organizational climate and professional drivers’ driver behaviours

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between organizational climate and driver behaviours of professional drivers. The sample consisted of 230 male professional drivers. The participants completed a questionnaire including the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ), Hofstede’s Organizational Culture Scale, and a background information form. Results of the factor analysis of Hofstede’s Organizational Culture Scale yielded two dimensions, which were named as “work orientation” and “employee consideration”. Analyses of Covariance (ANCOVA) revealed significant main and interaction effects of organizational climate on errors, and violations after controlling for the statistical effects of age, annual mileage and the organization types. Drivers with low scores of work orientation reported significantly higher frequencies of errors and violations than drivers with high scores of work orientation. It was also found that drivers with low scores of employee consideration reported higher frequencies of errors and violations than drivers with high scores of employee consideration. The effect of interaction between work orientation and employee consideration dimensions was only found on the frequencies of violations.     

Suitability of ignition source “exploding wire” for determination of dust explosion characteristics in the 20-L-sphere

Several safety characteristics of dusts are determined in the 20-L-sphere (also known as SIWEK Chamber) according to international standards. Dust cloud ignition is carried out using pyrotechnical igniters. Due to various disadvantages of such igniters the need for alternative ignition sources arises again and again. An alternative could be an ignition source which is known as “exploding wire” or “fuse wire”. The paper presents test results of a comparative study between both ignition sources for the determination of the safety characteristics “Maximum Explosion Pressure” and “Maximum Rate of Explosion Pressure Rise” of five selected dusts in the 20-L-sphere. In addition to that the ignition mechanisms of both ignition sources were analyzed by high speed camera recordings and the ignition energy was determined with electric and calorimetric recordings. The paper shows results of measurements of the ignition energy of both ignition sources as well as sequences of the flame propagation.     

突发事件应急决策模拟演练设计理论框架与技术要点

突发事件应急决策模拟演练是提升参演主体应急处置能力的重要途径，该类演练的设计开发需要系统性的理论与技术进行规范和引导。从实践归纳的角度，将该类演练的设计划分为演练内容设计和演练形式开发2部分，详尽地分析演练内容设计中的4个核心要素（主题与目标、演练情景、演练任务和目标能力）和演练形式开发中的3项关键技术（控制流程、任务导入与方案输出、信息技术平台）。此外，着重介绍了突发事件应急决策模拟演练设计开发过程中容易混淆的几组概念关系，即“情景构建与应急演练的关系”、“应急预案与应急演练的关系”、“演练内容与演练形式的关系”、“演练中‘演’与‘练’的关系”。     

水电工程高危作业风险影响因素的SEM模型

为探索水电工程高危作业的事故致因机理,耦联分析水电工程施工风险管理过程,从"施工企业影响"、"施工安全管理"、"施工人员行为"、"现场作业相关因素"等方面归纳总结水电工程施工事故风险要素及构成体系;在此基础上,通过问卷调查收集基础数据并定义研究变量属性,抽象风险与影响因素关系的概念模型,建立与检验高危作业风险的SEM模型;然后,以修正指数MI为判据,修正和优化SEM模型。研究结果表明:安全管理制度、教育培训、职业健康环境、个人决策能力对水电高危作业风险具有显著影响,是风险监管的重点,同时也启示风险管理者应深入贯彻"以人为本"的理念,加强"顶层制度设计"。     

The effect of congruency between sound-source location and verbal message semantics of in-vehicle navigation systems

In-vehicle navigation systems use an auditory interface to avoid redirecting drivers’ visual attention when interaction with the devices is required. Since most of these systems emit sounds from the installation location of the devices, there are situations when the sound-source location conflicts with the message’s semantics. This research studied the effect of congruency on recall accuracy and response time after a distraction period during which participants had to perform a modified Brown–Peterson task. Three conditions of verbal message presentation methods were tested: to left-ear only (PL), to right-ear only (PR), and to one of the ears according to the message semantics (PS), in which message content was either “left” or “right”. Three distraction intervals were also tested. The results indicated that the length of the distraction interval significantly reduced response time, suggesting an expectancy effect in the presence of distractions. The presentation condition did not have significant effect on error rate. The data were further divided into two conditions: the congruent condition, which was equivalent to PS, and the conflicting condition, for PL and PR. The analysis showed that the congruent/conflicting condition significantly affected the error rate; the data revealed that congruent condition had a lower error rate. The findings have implications for the design of verbal messages with semantics that are spatial in nature.     

Analysis of “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines

This paper presents an analysis of a “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) data. Term “high-dollar” value relates to penalty of $10,000 and more per citation or order. The study was based on historical MSHA data for the period from 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2009. Data shows that there were 1161 “high-dollar” value citations and orders in 2009 with a total penalty of almost $31-million. The most cited standard was 75.400 – “Accumulation of combustible material” with a 259 “high-dollar” value citations and total penalty of almost $5.9-million. Among all US states, the West Virginia coal mines recorded the highest number of citations and the total penalty value. Results of this study can be used by coal mining industry to help in prioritizing resource allocations and determining control strategies.     

综放开采覆岩“两带”高度影响因素及预测模型研究*

为研究影响综放开采覆岩“两带”高度预测模型,采用理论分析与经验公式方法系统分析影响覆岩“两带”高度的因素,包括覆岩岩性、覆岩组合结构、煤层赋存状态、顶板控制方法、开采厚度、工作面走向长度与倾向长度、工作面推进速度、覆岩破坏残余变形;并将上述因素划分为采矿地质因素、顶板控制方法、采煤工作面三维尺寸设计参数、时间因素4类;基于此建立综放开采“两带”高度预测模型,并通过工程实例对比、现场实测等方法进行合理性验证。结果表明:芦沟矿与盛泰矿2个工作面的“两带”高度预测值均在实测值范围之内,说明得出的回归式预测效果较好,验证综放开采“两带”高度预测模型的合理性。     

孤岛工作面支承压力影响下顶板破坏机理研究

为了探讨孤岛工作面支承压力影响下顶板破坏机理,通过采用理论分析,建立薄板力学模型,对孤岛工作面顶板弯矩分布规律进行分析,并结合实验室数值模拟手段对工作面顶板支承压力集中系数及顶板围岩塑性区演变规律进行研究。研究结果表明:在支承压力作用下,随着推进距离的增大,顶板支承压力集中系数呈现增大的趋势;工作面顶板煤壁中部弯矩显著大于煤壁两侧弯矩,该结果合理解释了工作面方向上支架工作阻力不相等的规律;顶板断裂的塑性区演变特征存在时空效应及力学特征,顶板四周所形成的横向“O”型破断与横向“X”型破断,共同构成了顶板破断的横“O-X”破断形式。     

对“撞了白撞”问题的思考

在《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》公布前后有关“撞了白撞”被否决的宣传对交通安全不利。“撞了白撞”的演绎存在片面性 ,“撞了白撞”被否决的宣传不符合自然科学规律 ,存在理论上的误区。人们应该清楚的认识到 :获得交通事故损害赔偿并非获得了交通安全保障 ;行人、非机动车等交通“弱者”在一定条件下可转化为交通“强者”。对法律、法规的宣传 ,既要讲究法律原则和社会道德准则 ,也要讲究科学性。     

Recognition on trigger condition of autonomous emergency braking system

Introduction: Automobiles carrying an autonomous emergency braking system (AEBS) are currently prevailing. While the reduction of traffic accidents is expected because of the widespread use of the system, concerns as regards many drivers using the system without proper understanding of the trigger conditions (TCs) have arisen. This research aims to grasp the degree of recognition of the AEBS TCs by a driver with a vehicle equipped with the system. Method: Using a web research company, we sent a survey sheet for screening to 9999 monitors randomly selected by gender and age group and confirmed own vehicle with an autonomous braking system ownership status. The number of answer targets was 200 for each of the four groups divided by age and gender. In this research, we developed a multivariate analysis model with the degree of understanding the AEBS TCs as the objective variable. The explanatory variables of this model were “Driver characteristics” and “Contact opportunities of information on the AEBS.” Results: Using PCA’s main component scores as the objective variable, two types of multiple regression models were constructed according to the AEBS TCs (do not work properly and work accidentally). The model analysis showed that gender, age, confidence in driving skill, and experience of the AEBS before purchasing are significant variables in both models. The recognition of the conditions of the “AEBS does not work properly” was influenced by the information-gathering ability and the degree of reference to various information. In contrast, the recognition of the conditions of the “AEBS work accidentally” was influenced by the interest of automobiles, such as the importance of automobile for self-expression and explanation taken up in a car magazine. Conclusions: This study clarified the driver characteristics and contact opportunities of information that have problems in recognizing the AEBS TCs. Practical Applications: Considering measures, such as public relations, utilizing this result will be meaningful in terms of road safety in the current stage, which is the transitional period of the AEBS.     

完善与发展重大突发事件情景构建技术方法的核心问题

重大突发事件情景构建是近年在我国兴起的支撑应急准备能力建设的一种方法和思路,广泛应用于公共安全领域的预案体系管理、应急演练设计、应急体系规划等应急准备行动。但是,随着相关研究和应用的逐年深入,如何将其进一步总结、凝练,进而发展成为突破层级和业务领域的标准化风险管理方法是当前应急管理领域急需解决的问题之一。首先,从重大突发事件情景构建的重要性与必要性入手,总结回顾目前国内外情景构建相关的研究与应用现状;其次,在情景构建理论体系和应用实践总结的基础上,围绕“综合风险评估和专家观点的情景主题筛选”“基于专业知识和真实案例支撑的‘故事化’表达”“基于通用应急任务清单支撑的任务梳理”和“基于任务驱动的风险沟通机制”4个核心理念进行深入分析和讨论;最后,结合目前我国应急管理机构改革的情况,从情景构建标准体系的建立和基于标准的情景构建实践工作出发,提出针对性建议。研究结果可为重大突发事件情景构建标准体系的建立与推广提供理论基础和参考借鉴。