Employing pedestrian observations in engineering analysis

Simulation tools are often used to establish pedestrian and evacuee performance. The accuracy and reliability of such tools are dependent upon their ability to qualitatively and quantitatively capture the outcome of this performance; i.e. whether the simulated agents perform the expected acts and take the expected amount of time to complete them. This article investigates the relationship between simulating individual agent actions and generating reliable emergent conditions (e.g. congestion). Once this relationship is established for a particular tool, it can then be used to investigate the conditions that may emerge in certain scenarios and mitigate against them. This article presents a simple framework for categorising real-world observations and then translating these observations into the simulated environment - extracting key information from the data collected to configure the simulation tool as required. The article addresses the qualitative benefits of representing individual-level actions, and, to a lesser degree, the quantitative benefits, although this effort is limited given the nature of the data. It tests this relationship using observations made at the Hajj, specifically the Sa’ee where large numbers of pilgrims perform religious rites in concert. Several scenarios are simulated using the buildingEXODUS model, enabling the importance of individual-level behaviours upon emergent conditions to be investigated, even when simulating relatively large crowds of up to 15,000 people.     

建筑内人员疏散的一种网络模型算法的讨论

针对疏散模型问题进行了一些讨论,在分析疏散模型的基础上,认为网络模型较为适合工程应用,确定发展网络疏散模型。在讨论网络疏散模型路径时,首先将整个建筑物模型划分为四种不同的结构,并假设了模型成立的条件,再按照典型的流量限制原理和该单元内疏散的特点,分别讨论了这四种不同类型的结构的算法。     

建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为研究的回顾与发展

建筑物发生火灾后 ,安全疏散所需时间的长短主要取决于疏散开始时间 ,疏散开始时间又取决于人的行为 ,而人的行为是其生理和心理因素的函数。为此 ,在论证研究人的行为在疏散评价的重要性的基础上 ,详细地评述了火灾疏散中人行为的历史背景、研究内容和研究范围 ,然后展望了其以后的研究方向。特别强调 ,基础数据库的收集与建立、人行为的模式、系统动态的模拟和仿真等在研究中的重要作用     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

走廊弯腰疏散行为试验研究

为研究走廊里人群弯腰疏散行为,组织45名学生进行6组不同初始密度疏散试验,通过录像分析得出不同密度时弯腰疏散基本图,将结果与行走及爬行疏散比较。试验结果表明:弯腰和行走疏散的速度分别是1.4 m/s和1.7 m/s,而爬行疏散速度为0.73 m/s;在密度小于0.5人/m2时,3种疏散方式的流动速度相当;在密度大于0.5人/m2时,3种移动方式速度有明显差异;得出弯腰疏散的速度频率分布图,速度均值为:女生1.02±0.16 m/s,男生1.09±0.2 m/s;在低速度区,女生占很大比重,男生在高速度区的频率较高。     

The empowering leadership questionnaire: the construction and validation of a new scale for measuring leader behaviors

This paper describes the construction and empirical evaluation of a new scale for measuring empowering leader behavior. Study One consisted of thorough interviews with external leaders and team members in three organizations. Behaviors elicited in the interviews were classified by researchers into eight categories of leader empowering behavior and the Empowering Leadership Questionnaire (ELQ) was constructed to measure each of these categories. In Study Two, the ELQ was administered to team members and leaders from two organizations. The results indicated that five‐factors (Coaching, Informing, Leading By Example, Showing Concern/Interacting with the Team, and Participative Decision‐Making) adequately describe the data. In Study Three, we cross‐validated the scale in a sample from five organizations and the factor analysis confirmed the five‐factor model. The ELQ dimensions were also compared with behaviors measured by two well‐established measures of leader behavior. The results indicated that the ELQ dimensions partially overlap with previously identified constructs, but that empowering leadership behavior can not be entirely accounted for by the earlier measures. Definitions and implications for the categories of empowering leader behaviors are offered. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of an ageing and less fit population on the ability of people to egress buildings

The functional capability of building occupants to egress from buildings is likely to change as populations age and become less fit. A review of the current health literature suggests obesity can be used to determine the likely reduction in walking speed and also as a marker for other egress related factors such as the risk of falls. This paper examines the possible effects of gender, age and obesity and uses a Monte Carlo network evacuation model to examine whether these changes will significantly increase the total evacuation time from an exemplar high-rise building. Modelling results suggest that total evacuation times may increase by up to 20% when comparing historical data from Canada in 1971 with a future New Zealand scenario for 2031.     

下沉式广场“准安全区”可行性研究

为研究位于某广场建筑商业综合体裙房中央的下沉式广场作为人员疏散的准安全区的可行性,运用烟气模拟软件FDS得到了可用安全疏散时间ASET,并通过疏散模拟软件Building-Exo-dus和水力模型计算方法得出了所需安全疏散时间RSET。研究表明,人员安全疏散条件ASET相似文献   

The development of a movement-density relationship for people going on four in evacuation

Occupant movement in evacuation models has been simulated and predicted based on a number of variables, including crowd density. This study investigates the relationship between crowd density and occupant crawling movement, as a physical response to environmental conditions in fire. It is an attempt to generate the fundamental speed-density relationship that has been developed for walking movement. This is conducted by examining the impact of population size and exit access width on crowd walking and crawling speeds on a flat surface. The findings of the study suggest that exit access width has a significant impact, whereas occupant configuration (population size) plays less of a factor. The results further demonstrate that there is a significant difference in the crawling speed given the exit access width available, due to the secondary effect of crowd density. The relationship between crowd crawling speed and density is best represented by a quadratic regression model. The study concludes with the need to continuously develop new predictive movement methods, or enhance existing ones in order to cope with the level of detail required to ensure occupant safety and model complexity.     

Modification of Evacuation Time Computational Model for Stadium Crowd Risk Analysis

The complexity of the evacuation process is associated with the flow of occupants through various egresses available inside the building. Several methods and algorithms are now available to analyse the problem related to evacuation. In the present paper an algorithm, evacuation discrete time model (EDTM) has been presented to analyse the building egress evacuation time problem with previous works. The algorithm is based on the crowd flow theory and uses discrete computational approach to identify various widths of egresses available for movement of the people, which is more accurate and practicable because the crowd flow rate is variable. The developed model has been compared with an existing model to show the capabilities of the developed algorithm. A case of stadium stand egress is chose for the validity of EDTM, and a comparison of EDTM, previous model and computer simulation indicates that both the EDTM and the simulation curves were found to give better predictions than the previous model. Based upon the comparison analysis with stranded crowd and evacuation crowd at a certain time, EDTM shows great value in explaining the cause of stampede-trampling and crushing incident of egress or narrow passage zone.     

Automatic imitation of risky behavior: a study of simulated driving in china

Objective: Imitation of risky behaviors among drivers is a potentially dangerous threat to driving safety but is infrequently discussed in the existing literature. To enrich the understanding of drivers' imitation behaviors on the road, 2 experiments were designed for a simulated traffic environment. Methods: Safe and risky behaviors were demonstrated by model vehicles separately in the 2 experiments, and imitation behaviors of the participants were observed and analyzed. Results: From experiment 1 it was found that the following distance of participants (measured in time headway) was affected by the distance demonstrated by other vehicles on the road. The influence was stronger when the speed was low, and the participants imitated both risky and safe behavior models. When the speed was high, the participants tended to only learn safe behaviors. In experiment 2, when approaching yellow lights, it was examined whether a driver's decision (pass or stop) would be affected by the behavior of another vehicle (the model vehicle), which was designed to either pass through or stop at the intersection. When the model vehicle ran the yellow light, 65 percent of the participants did the same, even though they were 30?m behind the model vehicle. In contrast, if the model vehicle stopped at the intersection, only 25 percent of the participants decided to pass. Conclusions: It was found that both novice and experienced participants had the tendency to imitate what they saw but were rarely aware of the influence by other drivers in both scenarios.     

Effect of varying two key parameters in simulating evacuation for subway stations in China

With the rapid development in economics, subway systems have been constructed in many big cities of China. Computer evacuation models developed overseas are commonly applied in working out safety management scheme. However, input evacuation parameters are not compiled from surveying passenger behavior in China. In fact, very few studies were conducted on justifying such parameters. Staircases in subway stations, particularly those connecting the platform and the ticket hall, are identified as the ‘bottleneck’ during evacuation in the subway stations. The maximum upstairs speed and the average minimum width of staircase utilized per person are the two key parameters affecting the evacuation through the staircase. Effect of varying these two parameters will be studied in this paper by taking two subway stations in China as examples. Evacuation performance is predicted with the software buildingEXODUS. The default values in the software are used and adjusted through field survey. Effect of varying either or both of the two parameters is discussed. The possible causes on the differences and the factors to affect such effect are explored. It is found that changing both parameters simultaneously would reduce the overall evacuation time by 50%. The effect of varying the two parameters on the overall evacuation performance of the whole station depends also on the occupancy density in the station; and the travel distance from the outlet of the staircase between the platform and the ticket hall to the inlet of the staircase between the ticket hall and the ground surface.     

Crowding in platform staircases of a subway station in China during rush hours

Crowding during the morning peak hours at a platform staircase in a subway station in China was studied in this paper. Passenger flow was surveyed with normal evacuation time recorded. The evacuation process was simulated with the software buildingEXODUS. Predicted results on the total evacuation time and maximum flow capacity of the selected staircase were compared with the field observations. Two parameters, the width of staircase utilized per person and the maximum upstairs walking speed used in the software were identified to be noticeably different from the field studies. Predictions agreed better with the observations after tuning these two parameters. It is concluded that the evacuation simulation software can be applied for safety design with appropriate tuning on the key parameters through field tests.     

The effect of overtaking behavior on unidirectional pedestrian flow

We present a model of overtaking behavior that can be used to simulate unidirectional pedestrian flow in routine. All pedestrians have the ability to determine whether or not to overtake other pedestrians according to their desired velocity and position. Although existing models such as cellular automata models, lattice gas models, social force models, etc., can be used to predict evacuation performance, most of these models are either computationally inefficient or do not account for some crucial elements of human behavior in a moving crowd. Furthermore, these models use either empirical equations developed from experiments or mechanical system analogies to determine movement decisions. The pedestrian flow patterns simulated by these models may deviate significantly from reality. In reality, pedestrians walk at different velocities and pedestrians with a higher walking velocity are accustomed to overtaking other pedestrians with a lower walking velocity and this paper aims to mimic this behavior as the original social force model developed by Helbing et al. does not reflect this pattern of collective pedestrian behavior. In this paper, we propose modifications of the social force model that reflects how overtaking behavior operates in routine. The comparison of the pedestrian flow pattern between the original social force model and the modified social force models with the real data collected by the camcorder is also performed in order to demonstrate our modified social force model can be used to achieve reasonable simulations of overtaking behavior among pedestrians.     

Crashes and near-crashes on horizontal curves along rural two-lane highways: Analysis of naturalistic driving data

IntroductionPrior research has shown the probability of a crash occurring on horizontal curves to be significantly higher than on similar tangent segments, and a disproportionally higher number of curve-related crashes occurred in rural areas. Challenges arise when analyzing the safety of horizontal curves due to imprecision in integrating information as to the temporal and spatial characteristics of each crash with specific curves.MethodsThe second Strategic Highway Research Program(SHRP 2) conducted a large-scale naturalistic driving study (NDS),which provides a unique opportunity to better understand the contributing factors leading to crash or near-crash events. This study utilizes high-resolution behavioral data from the NDS to identify factors associated with 108 safety critical events (i.e., crashes or near-crashes) on rural two-lane curves. A case-control approach is utilized wherein these events are compared to 216 normal, baseline-driving events. The variables examined in this study include driver demographic characteristics, details of the traffic environment and roadway geometry, as well as driver behaviors such as in-vehicle distractions.ResultsLogistic regression models are estimated to discern those factors affecting the likelihood of a driver being crash-involved. These factors include high-risk behaviors, such as speeding and visual distractions, as well as curve design elements and other roadway characteristics such as pavement surface conditions.ConclusionsThis paper successfully integrated driver behavior, vehicle characteristics, and roadway environments into the same model. Logistic regression model was found to be an effective way to investigate crash risks using naturalistic driving data.Practical ApplicationsThis paper revealed a number of contributing factors to crashes on rural two-lane curves, which has important implications in traffic safety policy and curve geometry design. This paper also discussed limitations and lessons learned from working with the SHRP 2 NDS data. It will benefit future researchers who work with similar type of data.     

体育赛场人群疏散过程滞留人数定量模型研究

体育赛场历史事故统计分析表明,出口堵塞为导致人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的主要原因.滞留人群是疏散过程最常见的一种人流形式,同时也是拥挤踩踏事故风险的主要承载体.基于人群流量与人群密度关系建立了体育赛场时间维变量的滞留人数定量模型.体育赛场看台不同宽度出口人群疏散计算结果表明,滞留人数不仅对人群疏散时间有直接影响,而且与事故发生概率之间存在一定的关系.该模型可用于指导体育赛场出口设计,疏散路线选择及应急预案的编制等.     

煤矿企业员工行为对安全生产的影响及安全文化构建

从员工行为视角探讨煤矿企业影响安全生产的因素,提出不规范的个体行为、领导行为和群体行为导致了安全事故的频发。实证分析表明:员工行为是影响煤矿企业安全生产的重要因素之一,其影响程度约占11.2%;煤矿企业员工行为主要是通过安全文化影响企业的安全生产,因此,煤矿企业应当通过安全文化构建纠正员工不规范行为,即构建一种基于员工行为能力的煤矿企业安全文化提高组织员工队伍的行为能力,增强企业的凝聚力,为煤矿企业安全生产提供有效的支持和保障。     

组织因素对民航维修人员安全行为的影响

为了减少民航维修人员不安全行为,探讨组织因素对民航维修人员安全行为的影响机理。基于组织行为学理论并结合民航维修人员的访谈分析,确定了影响民航维修人员安全行为的4个组织因素——安全氛围、工作压力、风险感知和安全管理,在此基础上,构建了组织因素与民航维修人员安全行为关系的假设模型。选取国内航空公司维修基地的一线机务维修人员进行问卷调查,采用结构方程模型对假设模型进行验证。结果表明,安全氛围、工作压力、风险感知和安全管理4个维度与安全参与行为、安全服从行为显著相关,其中,安全氛围对安全参与行为的影响最大。风险感知对安全服从行为的影响最小。     

Measuring determinants of occupational health related behavior in Flemish farmers: an application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

PROBLEM: Preventive interventions to reduce occupational injuries and health problems in farmers require the identification of factors that contribute to unsafe and health damaging behavior. This paper describes the development and validation of a self-report questionnaire, which measures the determinants of occupational health-related behaviors in farmers. METHOD: A representative sample of 283 Flemish farmers completed a provisional 135 item questionnaire based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, measuring four behaviors related to occupational health (machinery use, animal handling, preventing falls, and pesticide use), as well as the intentions, attitudes, perceived social norms, and self-efficacy for each of these behaviors. RESULTS: The fit indices of the Confirmatory Factor Analysis turned out not to be sufficient to reproduce the dimensions of the TPB. Therefore exploratory factor analysis was use to determine the underlying dimensions. Principal Component Analyses (PCA) on the behavioral items yielded single component solutions explaining a considerable proportion of the variance for each behavior and for behavioral intentions. Principal component analyses toward an a priori three-component structure reflecting the TPB dimensions did not produce sufficient congruence for the determinants of the four behaviors. Subsequent Varimax rotations and discarding of redundant items resulted in three component solutions explaining 50% to 69% of the variance in the determinants of each behavior, corresponding with the dimensions of the TPB. Internal consistencies ranged from .25 to .89. Scale scores accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in intention and self-reported behavior. IMPACT: The study demonstrates the validity of the TPB in predicting behavior related to occupational safety and health in farmers, and provides a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure the cognitive concepts featured in this model. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Both authors share the same view on this study's impact on industry. In recent years, efforts have been made to create awareness among farmers about occupational hazards, and to encourage farmers to perform safer and healthier behavior. However, only a limited number of these interventions have proven to be successful. A possible reason for this relative lack of success is that interventions typically focus on risk analysis and raising awareness, whereas the literature on preventive health behavior change indicates that knowledge and awareness with regard to possible health risks are neither necessary nor sufficient to change behavior. To raise the effectiveness of prevention programs, other relevant determinants of behavior need to be addressed as well, such as: attitudes, perceived social norms, self efficacy, and elements of the physical environment that elicit or reinforce behavior. These determinants play a key role in psychological models of health related behavior, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior. Thus far, the use of these models within agricultural settings is fairly limited. This study demonstrates the validity of the Theory of Planned Behavior in predicting behavior related to occupational safety and health in farmers, and provides a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure the cognitive concepts featured in this model.     

宅楼内火灾疏散的人员预动时间的统计分析

人员疏散预动过程是受多个不确定因素影响的复杂过程,这导致人员预动时间是一个随机量,而不是一个常数,研究人员预动时间的分布特征对风险评估与性能化设计研究有重要实用意义.设计了影响人员疏散预动时间的组成因子,通过问卷调查形式,对住宅楼人员预动时间进行了数据调查,并对数据进行了统计和分析,针对人员疏散预动时间特征进行了研究,得到了住宅楼火灾疏散预动时间中各因子的概率特征及预动时间概率分布特征,结果表明预动时间符合正态分布特征.