Recursive Operability Analysis as a decision support tool for Risk-Based Maintenance

This work was developed with the support of MEMC, one of the most important producers of ultra-pure silicon wafers for electronic applications throughout the world. The availability of ultra-pure water is of prime importance in the silicon production process. In order to maximize the availability of UP water, MEMC has developed a preventive maintenance program and a detailed record of each maintenance intervention is recorded. This has allowed a complete failure rate data bank to be developed. In order to optimize the maintenance intervention, a Recursive Operability Analysis (ROA) has been used as a decision support tool. The results of the ROA, coupled with the failure rates, have made it possible to calculate the expected number of events (ENE) of various top events (TEs). The magnitude of each TE has been estimated on the basis of the monetary losses provoked by each event. The risk then has been calculated and the events ranked on this basis. Maintenance policies have been optimized with the aim of reducing the risk of the top ranked events.     

Driving task analysis as a tool in traffic safety research and practice

The paper explains the need for task analysis in the context of car driving, because the interaction between the car drivers‘ capabilities and the demands of the actual driving task determines the outcome in terms of a more or less safe driving behaviour. After reviewing past approaches, the main focus is on the presentation of a new procedure for driving task analysis and driver requirement assessment (SAFE: Situative Anforderungsanalyse von Fahraufgaben). A framework for task analysis is derived both from classifications of road traffic situations and a model of the drivers’ information processing. The first step of the procedure is to divide a given driving task into subtasks. These subtasks are appointed to defined stretches of the road and the time structure of the subtasks is determined. For each subtask an analysis format is used, that organizes different requirements into perception, expectation, judgement, memory, decision and driver action. Then, typical driver errors are attached to the subtasks, and all the information together is compressed to ratings of complexity and risk in order to derive the crucial subtasks. Finally, some examples of how the method can be applied are presented and its future usefulness is discussed.     

Alcohol-impaired motorcyclists versus car drivers: A comparison of crash involvement and legal consequence from adjudication data

Introduction: Driving under the influence (DUI) increases the probability of motor-vehicle collisions, especially for motorcycles with less protections. This study aimed to identify commonalities and differences between criminally DUI offenses (i.e., with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 80 mg/dL or higher) committed by motorcyclists and car drivers. Methods: A total of 10,457 motorcycle DUIs and 8,402 car DUIs were compared using a series of logistic regression models, using data extracted from the documents of adjudication decisions by the courts of Jiangsu, China. Results: The results revealed that offenders from the high-BAC group (i.e., 200 mg/dL or higher) accounted for more than 20% of the total DUI offenses, and were more likely to be involved in a crash and punished with a longer detention. Motorcyclists had a higher likelihood of crash involvement, and were also more likely to be responsible for single-vehicle crashes associated with higher odds of injury sustained, compared to alcohol-impaired car drivers. In the verdict, motorcycle offenders were more likely to receive a less severe penalty. Conclusions: Interventions are clearly required to focus on reducing in the high-BAC group of offenders. For alcohol-impaired motorcyclists, their risks of crash and injury against BAC climb more steeply than the risks for car drivers. The factors including frequent occurrences, uncertainty of detection, and short-term sentences may weaken the deterrence effect of the criminalization of motorcycle DUI. Practical Applications: The traffic-related adjudication data support traffic safety analysis. Strategies such as combating motorcycle violations (e.g., unlicensed operators or driving unsafe vehicles), undertaking education and awareness campaigns, are expected for DUI prevention.     

Motorcycle active safety systems: Assessment of the function and applicability using a population-based crash data set

Objective: Motorcycles and mopeds, often referred to as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs), play an important role in personal mobility worldwide. Despite their advantages, including low cost, space occupancy, and fuel efficiency, the risk of sustaining serious or fatal injuries is higher than that for occupants of passenger cars. The development of safety systems specific for PTWs represents a potential way to reduce casualties among riders. With the proliferation of new active and passive safety technologies, the question as to which might offer the most value is important. In this context, a prioritization process was applied to a set of PTW active safety systems to evaluate their applicability to crash scenarios alone and in combination. The systems included in the study were antilock braking (ABS), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), collision warning, curve warning, and curve assist.

Methods: With the functional performance of the 5 safety systems established, the relevance of each system to specific crash configurations and vehicle movements defined by a standardized accident classification system used in Victoria, Australia, was rated by 2 independent reviewers, with a third reviewer acting as a moderator where disagreements occurred. Ratings ranged from 1 (definitely not applicable) to 4 (definitely applicable). Using population-based crash data, the number and percentage of crashes that each safety system could potentially influence, or be relevant for, was defined. Applying accepted injury costs permitted the derivation of the societal economic cost of PTW crashes and the potential reductions associated with each safety system given a theoretical crash avoidance effectiveness of 100%.

Results: In the 12-year period 2000–2011, 23,955 PTW riders and 1292 pillion passengers were reported to have been involved in a road crash, with over 500 killed and more than 10,000 seriously injured; only 3.5% of riders/pillion passengers were uninjured. The total economic cost associated with these injured riders and pillion passengers was estimated to be AU$11.1 billion (US$7.70 billion; €6.67 billion). The 5 safety systems, as single solutions or in combination, were relevant to 57% of all crashes and to 74% of riders killed. Antilock braking was found to be relevant to the highest number of crashes, with incremental increases in coverage when combined with other safety systems.

Conclusions: The findings demonstrate that ABS, alone and in combination with other safety systems, has the potential to mitigate or possibly prevent a high percentage of PTW crashes in the considered setting. Other safety systems can influence different crash scenarios and are also recommended. Given the high cost of motorcycle crashes and the increasing number of PTW safety technologies, the proposed approach can be used to inform the process of selection of the most suitable interventions to improve PTW safety.     

The dynamic flowgraph methodology as a safety analysis tool: programmable electronic system design and verification

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) during the design and verification of programmable electronic safety-related systems. The safety system consists of hardware as well as software. This paper explains and demonstrates the use of DFM, and how DFM can be used to verify the hardware and application software design. DFM is used not only to analyze newly developed software but also to verify existing software. The outcome of the design verification of the safety system is used to define the necessary diagnostic capabilities that are essential to guarantee the correct functioning of the safety functions.     

Development of a method to rate the primary safety of vehicles using linked New Zealand crash and vehicle licensing data

Objective: Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings.

Methods: Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models.

Results: It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model.

Conclusions: This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models.     

The impact of environmental, vehicle and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers hospitalized as a result of a traffic crash

INTRODUCTION: Compared to younger age groups, older people are more likely to be seriously injured or to die as a result of a traffic crash. METHOD: The aim of the study is to examine the impact of environmental, vehicle, crash, and driver characteristics on injury severity in older drivers involved in traffic crashes by using recently linked police crash records and hospitalization data from New South Wales, Australia. The severity of injury resulting from traffic crashes was measured using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) Injury Severity Score (ICISS). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis identified rurality, presence of complex intersections, road speed limit, driver error, speeding, and seat belt use as independent predictors of injury severity in older people. The type of intersection configuration explained over half of the observed variations in injury severity. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Environmental modification such as intersection treatments might contribute to a decrease in the severity of injury in older people involved in road crashes.     

SPME/GC-MS在对火场残留物分析中的应用及其数据分析

本文利用固相微萃取(SPME)的高富集性和气相色谱-质谱(GC-MS)的精确性,采用SPME/GC-MS方法对模拟纵火现场中的常见火灾残留物进行分析,并通过比较其特性化合物,很大程度上提高了判断的准确性.利用二甲基苯、三甲基苯、四甲基苯及甲基萘类化合物各自异构体的特征比值,可以很好地减少分析过程中背景干扰.通过向量夹角法进行相似度分析可以帮助判断干扰物的影响.     

一种新型四齿1,2-HOPO螯合剂的合成、金属配位研究

以6-羟基-2-吡啶羧酸为原料,经5步反应合成得到一种新型四齿β-二酮1,2-羟基吡啶酮衍生物。通过红外、核磁、质谱对其结构进行了表征。采用电位-光谱结合的方法,测定了四齿β-二酮1,2-羟基吡啶酮衍生物与UO2+2、Cu~(2+)、Zn~(2+)和Fe~(3+)的络合能力。结果表明,四齿β-二酮1,2-羟基吡啶酮衍生物对UO2+2和Fe3+有明显的络合能力,有望成为一种新型铀酰离子促排剂(p UO2=15.4)和铁螯合剂(p Fe=21.22)。     

Organizations and supervisors as sources of support and targets of commitment: a longitudinal study

The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between perceived support and affective commitment, and the linkages between these constructs and some of their common antecedents and consequences. More precisely, using a sample of 238 employees, we conducted a longitudinal study to examine the linkages between the favorableness of intrinsically and extrinsically satisfying job conditions, perceived organizational support, perceived supervisor support, affective commitment to the organization and supervisor, and turnover. Affective commitment to the supervisor was found to completely mediate the effect of perceived supervisor support on turnover, whereas neither perceived organizational support nor organizational affective commitment were significantly related to turnover. Perceived organizational support partially mediated the effect of favorable intrinsically satisfying job conditions on organizational affective commitment and fully mediated the effect of extrinsically satisfying job conditions on organizational affective commitment. Finally, perceived supervisor support totally mediated the effect of favorable intrinsically satisfying job conditions on affective commitment to the supervisor. As a whole, findings suggest that exchange relationships between employees and their supervisors should be further investigated in future turnover research. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LNG as a potential alternative fuel - Safety and security of storage facilities

The aim of this article is to summarize the safety and security aspects of storing of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a potential alternative fuel. The contribution deals with possible scenarios of accidents associated with LNG storage facilities and with a methodology for the assessment of vulnerability of such facilities. The protection of LNG storage facilities as element of critical infrastructure should also be a matter of interest to the state. The study presents the results of determination of hazardous zones around LNG facilities in the event of various sorts of release. For calculations, the programs ALOHA, EFFECTS and TerEx were used and results obtained were compared. Scenarios modelled within this study represent a possible approach to the preliminary assessment of risk that should be verified by more detailed modelling (CFD). These scenarios can also be used for a quick estimation of areas endangered by an incident or accident. The results of modelling of the hazardous zones contribute to a reduction in risk of major accidents associated with these potential alternative energy sources.     

大型体育馆消防性能化设计中安全疏散时间的分析和研究

《体育建筑设计规范》对体育馆安全疏散时间有明确的要求,对于二级耐火等级的体育馆控制疏散时间定为3min～4min。以此作为某大型体育馆消防性能化设计中安全疏散时间依据,运用人员疏散模拟软件分别对体育馆安全疏散时间进行的分析和比较,探讨了具体案例中如何确定和评估消防性能化设计的安全水平,即消防性能化设计安全水平不应低于处方式安全水平的设计理念。研究结果表明,现行设计宽度可满足疏散要求,充分保证人员的安全疏散。     

Preparation of a metal-phosphate/chromium oxide nanocomposite from Cr(III)-containing electroplating sludge and its optical properties as a nanopigment

A nanocomposite composed of metal-phosphates and chromium oxide was prepared from a Cr(III)-containing electroplating sludge (CES) by a facile three-step (extraction–precipitation–calcination) process. Optimal process parameters were determined, and the structure of the metal-phosphate/chromium oxide nanocomposite (MPCON) was investigated by field-emission scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The results show that the optimal extraction pH is 2.0. The MPCON presents a polyhedral morphology with average particle size of around 100 nm. The components of MPCON vary from AlPO₄/Cr₂O₃ to Mg₃(PO₄)₂/AlPO₄/Cr₂O₃ at different solution pH during precipitation. Meanwhile, the optical performance of the nanocomposite as a pigment is discussed. The reflectance of MPCON-6.5 in the near-infrared range is around 56%, making it a strong prospect to be used as a functional pigment in energy-efficient buildings. This study proposes a novel recycling process for the conversion of CES into high-value products, which is beneficial for the treatment of waste.     

Frequency analysis of hazardous material transportation incidents as a function of distance from origin to incident location

According to the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT), more than 3.1 billion tons of hazardous materials (HazMat) are shipped within the United States annually. This averages to about 800,000 individual shipments of HazMat per day, of which 300,000 are shipments of petroleum/flammable–combustible liquids. This paper presents a temporal trend study (1995–2004) of 2145 HazMat incidents occurring through the transportation of flammable/combustible liquids. The study also correlates between HazMat incidents and distances between shipment origin and incident location. These distances attained through great circle calculations since the data compilation did not allow for the identification of specific routes taken in commodity transport. Findings of this study illustrate a bimodal distribution of frequency as a function of the logarithm of the Distance with first mode (less than 105 miles) mean of 24 [km] and second mode mean of 1061 [km]. Additionally, transport phase introduced no significance to the distribution of frequencies.     

Experimental flammability limits and associated theoretical flame temperatures as a tool for predicting the temperature dependence of these limits

The utility and limitations of adiabatic flame temperature calculations and minimum mixture energies in predicting the temperature dependence of flammability limits are explored. The limiting flame temperatures at constant pressure (1 bar) are calculated using a standard widely-used thermodynamic computer program. The computation is based on the calculated limiting flame temperature value at the reference initial temperature and the experimental limit concentration. The values recently determined in large chambers for the lower and upper flammability limits of a variety of simple organic and inorganic gases (methane, ethylene, dimethy lether, and carbon monoxide) are used as the basis for the predictions of the limiting flame temperature concept. Such thermodynamic calculations are compared with more traditional ones based on a limiting mixture energy and a constant average heat capacity of the reactant mixture. The advantages and limitations of the methods are discussed in this paper.     

The efficiency of using non-culpable crash-claim involvements from insurance data as a means of estimating travel exposure for road user sub-groups

Introduction

Induced exposure has a long history of development and usage in traffic safety research but a major question has always concerned the extent to which the accumulation of culpable and non-culpable involvements can be considered independent.

Method

Culpability assessments of 32,630 vehicles' crash-claim involvements adjudicated by insurance adjusters were matched with vehicle odometer readings taken at emission testing using consistent identification of vehicles and principal operators over a 5-year period.

Result

It was found that the accumulation of culpable crash involvements was not entirely independent of that for non-culpable involvements. However, the rate of non-culpable involvements was determined to be an acceptable surrogate for travel exposure rate where sample sizes were large.

Discussion

The relationship between the rate of non-culpable involvements and the rate of travel exposure for data subsets when both were normalized by the overall sample rates was reminiscent of an accident-volume curve for roadway locations in traffic engineering theory. This suggested that only a portion of non-culpable involvements actually related directly to travel and this lead to a correction factor that could be applied.

Impact on Industry

While lack of independence of involvement rates may be problematic for a direct risk ratio application, it does not invalidate the use of non-culpable involvements to predict travel. For insurers that have a need to estimate travel amounts for different driver/vehicle groups as part of the insurance rating purposes, this can be a useful application.     

Suicides and other fatalities from train-person collisions on Swedish railroads: a descriptive epidemiologic analysis as a basis for systems-oriented prevention

PROBLEM: Suicide is a dominating, although hidden, safety problem on Swedish railroads. The aim of this paper is to describe the epidemiology of fatal train-person collisions as a basis for systems-oriented prevention. METHOD: Data on collision circumstances were collected from narrative reports at the Swedish National Rail Administration. RESULTS: The events were evenly distributed by months and weekdays, however, most suicides occur during the day while unintentional events usually occur at night. Most train-person collisions happened in densely populated areas, and 75% of the suicide victims were waiting on the track before the collision. Significance test between types of injury event (suicide, accident, or unknown intent) showed small or no differences. CONCLUSION: Traditional approaches to accident prevention by systems modification seem largely applicable to combat railroad suicide as well. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings show promising preventive potentials.     

某大型机加车间数控机床噪声暴露特点与分析研究

为研究大型机加车间噪声现状和特点,选取某大型机加车间数控机床开展现场实测,并对噪声测量结果进行分析。结果显示:数控机床产生的噪声是非稳态噪声;数控机床产生的噪声在车间传播,声场分布不均匀;加工某转向工件频率在500～5 300 Hz,峰值频率分别为500,800,2 000,5 000 Hz;对机加数控机床操作岗位工作人员的8 h噪声暴露量进行测量,测量值为89.2 dB(A)。研究结果表明:评价大型机加车间噪声,测量重点应选在机床操作岗位和人行通道;应重点关注被测机床周围20 m内的噪声值;机加工作场所测量时间段的选择取决于作业持续时间。     

Identification of managerial shaping factors in a petrochemical plant by resilience engineering and data envelopment analysis

Resilience engineering (RE) is a novel approach that is capable of controlling and limiting incidents and accidents. This study identifies managerial shaping factors in a petrochemical plant by RE and data envelopment analysis (DEA). To do this, a standard questionnaire containing resilient factors is completed by managers of a petrochemical plant. Then, the best DEA model is selected based on average efficiency and statistical test. In addition, sensitivity analysis are performed to identify the most important shaping factors. Reporting culture, management commitment, and preparedness are identified as the most important factors in this paper, respectively. Finally, the proposed model is validated and verified through statistical experiment. The proposed approach would help managers to have a comprehensive understanding of the plant with respect to the RE. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that examines resilient shaping factors in a petrochemical plant with respect to management and organization by DEA.