沱江流域生态安全预警及其生态调控对策

从沱江流域生态安全预警入手,基于压力-状态-响应(pressure status response,PSR)模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析、时间序列预测、模糊综合评判、主成分分析方法对流域2010、2015、2020年的生态安全状态进行评价与预警研究.结果表明:(1)沱江流域各区段在2010、2015、2020年3个时段内,整体上呈现全流域生态安全跃升的趋势,生态安全状态逐步好转;(2)纵观2010-2020年期间流域内各区段的生态安全变化,上游区段的生态安全状态明显好于中下游区段,其次为中游区段,下游区段的生态安全状态最为令人担忧.因此,沱江下游是流域内生态安全建设的重点;(3)沱江流域2010-2020年生态安全预警分为3类:安全区域、持续危险区域和退化区域.安全区域包括沱江上、中、下游的21个市县区;持续危险区域涵盖了中、下游的8个县区;退化区域为中游的2个县;(4)沱江流域生态安全预警的主要预警因子可以归纳为植被覆盖与农业灾害因子、人口素质因子、土地承载力因子、景观格局因子、面源污染因子、水土流失因子6大类.针对沱江流域生态安全预警因子的分析结果,提出以下生态调控对策:(1)积极修复植被,改善生态环境;(2)增强农业的防灾减灾能力;(3)加强技能培训,提高人口素质;(4)合理利用土地资源,提高土地承载力;(5)优化土地利用结构,加大景观多样性;(6)提倡生物防治,控制面源污染;(7)大力进行水土保持建设.     

基于GIS与QuickBird影像的小流域土壤侵蚀定量评价

基于GIS技术和QuickBird遥感影像,采用修正的通用土壤流失方程RUSLE作为评价模型,计算了清水沟小流域土壤侵蚀量,并结合土壤侵蚀强度分级标准,生成流域土壤侵蚀强度等级图;利用GIS的叠置分析功能,定量分析了土壤侵蚀与坡度和土地利用之间的关系,并针对不同水保措施预测了水土保持治理效果.结果表明清水沟小流域土壤侵蚀模数为75.02 t·hm-2·a-1,属强度侵蚀区,年水土流失量2.6×104 t;流域64.5%的泥沙来自于占流域面积仅28%的极强度和剧烈侵蚀区域;经分析,流域土壤侵蚀模数与坡度呈显著正相关,不同土地利用类型的土壤侵蚀模数大小排序依次为难利用地＞建设用地＞坡耕地＞园地＞草地＞林地;退耕还林是降低土壤侵蚀强度与减少水土流失量的主要途径.     

黑河流域土地退化分类研究

黑河流域位于我国的西北内陆干旱区。人类不合理利用水资源造成的土地退化，已成为黑河流域一个非常严重的生态问题。土地荒漠化是该流域最典型和最严重的土地退化形式。对该流域土地退化的空间分布、特点、退化面积等方面还没有较为详细的研究，因此探讨这个问题就显得非常重要。文章通过最新的遥感影像资料(2000年)，在分析已有的研究成果的基础上，结合野外调查，利用遥感和地理信息系统(GIS)技术，初步分析了黑河流域土地退化的情况。研究结果表明，黑河流域土地退化主要有5种类型，即：水土流失、干旱化、植被退化、盐渍化和沙漠化。土地退化面积达29971．91km^2，占整个流域面积的23．06％；其中，水土流失主要分布在祁连山的南部山区，面积为5747．68km^2，占整个流域土地退化面积的19．18％，主要是由于过度开垦和放牧造成的；由于人类活动的影响，造成水资源在时空上的重新分配而导致的干旱化土地主要分布在山前部分冲、洪积平原的河流沿岸附近，其面积为1369.96km^2，占整个流域土地退化面积的4．57％；盐渍化土地是该流域土地退化的主要类型之一，面积为10591．82km^2，占整个流域土地退化面积的35．34％，分布在流域的低地、冲积扇的边缘等位置，主要是由于干旱的气候条件造成的；沙化土地，包括流动沙丘(地)，是研究区土地退化面积最大的类型，为10771．97km^2，占整个流域土地退化面积的35.94％，这其中也包括历史时期形成的沙漠和现代形成的大部分沙地；植被退化土地面积为1490．48km^2，只占整个流域土地退化面积的4．97％。通过分析可知，黑河流域土地退化严重，特别是在下游地区。人类不合理的经济活动，尤其是对该流域内有限水资源的不合理利用，是导致该地区土地生态系统脆弱的主要因素。     

基于ARIMA模型的辽河流域生态足迹动态模拟与预测

将能值与生态足迹理论相结合,引入能量折算系数,通过能值密度构建能值-生态足迹模型,并应用此模型对辽河流域2001—2010年生态承载力和生态足迹进行计算。生态承载力计算主要是自然生态承载力和本地产品产出承载力,其中自然生态承载力主要考虑可更新资源的承载力,本地产品产出承载力主要包括生物资源产出承载力和工业产品产出承载力。生态足迹的计算主要包括消费足迹和污染足迹,消费足迹主要测算生物资源消费、能源消费和水资源消费足迹。污染足迹主要测算废气和生活废水、工业废水对自然生态系统带来的负荷。测算结果表明:2001—2010年辽河流域人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹均有所增加,但是生态足迹的增长速度远远大于生态承载力,致使流域内自2001与2009年生态略有盈余外,其余年份均出现生态赤字,处于不可持续发展状态。以能值-生态足迹模型测算结果为基础,基于EViews采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA),对流域内10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态模拟。首先通过ADF与PP单位根检验时间序列的平稳性;其次分析序列的自相关函数图和偏自相关函数,初步确定AR和MA的阶次;再根据R2、AIC及SC准则,进行模型参数估计并诊断分析;最后确定最佳模拟模型。以ARIMA模型预测2011—2015年辽河流域生态足迹和生态承载力的演变趋势。预测结果表明,人均生态足迹在未来5年内会继续呈直线式增长,到2015年达到7.387 8 hm2,是2001年的2.16倍;而人均生态承载力在2011年之后开始下降,生态赤字继续扩大,到2015年增长到-4.167 67,约为2005年的10倍,流域内不可持续发展形势会更加恶化。最后提出辽河流域生态安全建设的对策。能值-生态足迹模型测算结果与实地调研基本相符,较真实反映了辽河流域可持续发展状况。基于ARIMA模型模拟预测结果可为未来流域开发和建设提供参考依据。     

基于CA-Markov模型的挠力河流域土地利用动态模拟

以三江平原腹地挠力河流域为研究对象,基于1990和2013年2期遥感数据,结合马尔科夫(Markov)转移矩阵、土地利用动态度模型和土地利用程度模型分析流域1990—2013年土地利用变化情况,运用CA-Markov模型对2025年土地利用格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:流域土地利用结构变化以耕地的内部和外部转换为主,水田化现象是最主要的景观变化特征,未利用地面积由于大量垦荒而大幅度减少;土地利用程度指数由1990年的251.46上升至2013年的270.48,土地开发利用程度不断加大;模型模拟显示流域Kappa系数为0.82,预测结果可信;2013—2025年流域土地利用类型变化趋势和速率与1990—2013年存在差异,林地变化幅度最大,水田面积仍然保持增长,但增长速度有所下降,单一动态度降为2%,旱地面积基本保持不变;未来12 a土地利用程度指数持续上升,流域受人类社会因素扰动作用的强度将会进一步加大。     

生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化研究——以辽宁省为例

利用生态足迹理论和计算方法、生态承载力分析方法分析了辽宁省1998--2007年十年期间的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力变化过程。结果表明：辽宁省人均生态足迹由1998年的2．9187上升到2007年的4．3578,人均生态承载力由1998年的0．6676下降到2007年的0．6520,生态赤字逐年增加,生态系统处于人类过度开发利用状态之中;万元GDP生态足迹始终处于下降的趋势,表明辽宁省对区域生物生产面积利用效率逐年提高,但与全国平均水平相比还有提高的空间;从供需结构分析,辽宁省土地供给以耕地为主,但是从消费结构来看以化石燃料土地为主。     

基于CA-Markov模型土地利用对景观格局影响辨识

采用CA-Markov模型方法,研究挠力河流域不同时段土地利用对湿地景观格局干扰强度的差异性.结果表明:(1)流域湿地景观格局变化显著.1967-2000年,挠力河流域湿地类型景观最大斑块指数逐渐减小,耕地和水域斑块的面积周长分维数逐渐减小,而沼泽和居民地的散布与并列指数变大,草甸和耕地聚集度指数增大;湿地景观破碎化程度增加;湿地景观空间分布逐渐由流域周围高地势区向中心河流廊道退缩.(2)流域土地利用变化明显.耕地和居民用地数量迅速增加,耕地趋于集中连片分布,土地利用呈由自然湿地逐渐转化为耕地的变化过程,耕地成为主导的土地利用类型.(3)流域土地利用强度存在阶段差异.1967-2000年,流域内人类活动对湿地景观的干扰强度逐渐加剧,人为景观面积比例由1967年的26.5%上升至2000年的67.8%.土地利用影响强度指数由1967年的1.690上升至2000年的2.394.2000年模拟的流域土地利用影响强度比2000年实际土地利用影响强度小,由此可以识别1983-2000年人类对湿地景观的干扰强度比1967-1983年有所增大;利用居民地和沼泽面积的变化可以识别流域人口增长和排水活动对土地利用影响的时段差异性.     

半干旱黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域生态经济可持续发展研究

为了探讨半干旱黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域综合治理措施对生态经济可持续发展所起的作用,根据大量的实地调研数据,利用生态足迹理论与方法对庙坪小流域生态环境治理前后的生态足迹需求与供给进行了定量计算.结果表明:该流域生态足迹一直大于生态承载力,小流域生态经济为不可持续状态,但人均生态赤字由治理前的0.798 9 hm2下降到治理后的0.552 5 hm2.由于流域水土保持综合治理成效显著,导致流域生态承载力的增幅大于生态足迹的增幅,生态足迹需求及亏缺主要源于化石能源用地和耕地类产品的消费.     

基于LUCC的密云水库上游流域人为干扰动态变化

人类活动对地球表层的干扰所造成的影响和变化正日益增强,正确估计人为干扰对现在和未来环境变化影响的程度以及叠加在自然变化上的幅度具有重大意义。选择生态系统服务功能突出、人地关系矛盾剧烈的北京市密云水库上游流域为研究区,基于2005和2013年2期SPOT 5遥感影像数据,借助人为干扰度指数和GIS空间分析方法,从结构变化、类型变化、空间变化和人为干扰度4个角度,探讨密云水库上游流域人为干扰时空动态分异及变化特征。结果表明:(1)2005—2013年间,密云水库上游流域景观以林地-耕地-园地格局为主导,土地利用变化速度加快,人类活动对土地资源的集约利用强度增加。(2)农业结构调整、土地开发整理、经济发展、建设占用以及生态恢复工程是流域内土地利用与土地覆被变化的主要因素;旱地、园地、有林地、灌木林地面积减少,菜地、草地、疏林地、建设用地和滩地增加,森林生态系统质量呈退化趋势;工矿用地和未利用土地主要转为园地、林地和草地,生态恢复工程略显成效。(3)半干扰是流域内主导的干扰景观类型,全干扰和半干扰型景观面积增加,无干扰型景观面积减少,流域内景观的人为干扰强度呈现由深山区向浅山区逐渐增强的空间分异特征,交通道路沿线及人类活动活跃地区是人为干扰强度增加最显著的地区。     

缺资料小流域非点源磷素输出关键源区识别方法初探

为控制水体污染,改善水质,最大效率地降低磷素污染,迫切需要寻找非点源磷素流失的关键源区。采用半定量、经验性的流域尺度磷素流失危险分级方案,通过分析确定以土地利用类型为源因子,以坡度和区域至河流的距离为迁移因子,最大限度地识别缺资料小流域非点源磷素输出关键源区,并以辽宁社河农业小流域为例,通过GIS技术探索小流域磷素流失的关键源区。结果表明,社河流域大部分区域地表径流磷素流失风险等级为低,该部分区域面积占流域总面积的80%;河流两侧大部分农田非点源磷素流失风险等级属于中,该部分区域面积占流域总面积的13%;非点源磷素输出高风险等级的区域占流域总面积的7%,主要分布在流域内坡度较大、与河流距离较近的山区旱地和丘陵旱地等区域。需要对磷素输出关键源区域加强土地管理,降低非点源磷素负荷输出。     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

科尔沁沙地土地利用变化对土壤特性的影响

在中国科学院奈曼沙漠化研究站放牧试验场周围,选取了不同利用方式和类型的草地（封育和放牧）、林地（乔木和灌木）和农田（灌溉和非灌溉）为研究样地,调查了0～30cm土层每隔10cm的土壤水分质量分数和有机养分（有机碳和全氮）,分析了土地利用变化对土壤水分质量分数和有机养分的影响。结果发现,垂直空间分布上,无论哪种土地类型样地,土壤水分质量分数和有机养分各土层间均无显著差异性（P〉0.05）,土层垂直变化对土壤特性影响均较小。在不同土地利用方式水平空间分布上,土壤水分质量分数和有机养分（土壤有机碳和全氮）灌木林地均显著高于乔木林地（P〈0.05）,而封育草地和放牧草地间以及灌溉农田与非灌溉农田间土壤水分质量分数和有机养分均无显著差异性（P〉0.05）。不同土地利用类型水平分布上,草地土壤水分质量分数显著低于林地和农田（P〈0.05）,而土壤养分质量分数草地显著高于林地和农田（P〈0.05）。分析表明,对沙质草地进行围栏封育和旱作农田退耕还林还草的同时,对水浇农田实行保护性耕作和精细管理,有利于沙地土壤环境改善与生态系统恢复。     

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.     

Soil quality evolution after land use change from paddy soil to vegetable land

A survey was done in 15 typical villages, 150 soil and 86 vegetable plant samples were taken in Jiaxin prefecture of the Taihu Lake region, northern Zhejian province. Results indicate that after 15-20 years land use changed from the paddy rice-wheat (or oilseed rape) double cropping system, to a continuous vegetable land has caused soil quality dramatic change. (1) Acidification: average soil pH was 5.4; about 61% of total samples were pH < 5.5. It was 0.9 units lower than 10 years ago with same upland vegetable cultivation and was 1.2 units lower than soil pH of paddy rice-wheat (or oilseed rape) rotation. (2) Fertilizer salt accumulation: the average salt content was 0.28%, among these about 36.2% of the total samples contained more than 0.3%. (3) Nitrate N and available phosphorus (P) over accumulation: on average it was 279 mg NO3-N/kg, and 45-115 mg P/kg. Nitrate N four times higher and available P 4-10 times more than it is in present paddy rice-wheat rotation soils respectively. This has caused wide concern because of possible groundwater and well drinking water pollution by leached nitrate N and the P losses to water by runoff from vegetable lands induce surface water eutrophication.     

Evaluation procedures for restored land

Release of land for mineral extraction is often dependent on the quality of the restoration which can be achieved. It follows, therefore, that some means of judging the success of restoration is required, especially where restoration is an agricultural after use.In order to assess whether land has been well restored it is therefore necessary to know what the physical characteristics of the land were before mineral extraction took place, what changes are likely to have occurred to the land and soil as a result of mineral extraction, and lastly whether the physical characteristics of the land are as good as when the land was last used for agriculture. Most permissions however, were granted before there was a requirement to record pre-site conditions so it is impossible to know what the site was like when it was last used for agriculture. Furthermore, this paper will argue that land quality is only one factor which should be considered in assessing the quality of restored land, other factors for example, visual integration, farm management must also be taken into consideration. This paper will outline the existing evaluation procedures used by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries & Food and Minerals Planners and suggest developing an evaluation procedure which considers various dimensions of restored land namely soil and land quality, visual integration and the management and productivity of restored land. This evaluation procedure has been applied to seventeen study sites of sand and gravel pits. The paper will indicate whether the evaluation procedure successfully classified these sites or not.     

The re-use of derelict land

Conclusions Despite these problems there are a number of positive cases, where exemplary solutions have been found after long processes of negotiation and compensation and which can stand as examples of what can be achieved in a re-organisation of the environment and housing structure between the Ruhr and the Lippe.The transformation of the old Rosenblumendelle pit in Mülheim into a shopping centre, the create of a modern industrial park on the land of the old Friedrich Ernestine pit in Essen (from the pit closure to the establishment of the park the whole process only took four and a half years!), and the transformation of the old Dahlhauser Tiefbau pit in Bochum into a leisure and recreation area, which will soon be completed. These and other examples show that reclamation, given favourable circumstances, can be very successful indeed.     

污染土地价值评估问题探讨

工业化和城市化为人类福利的改善作出极大的贡献,也带来了大量的污染土地。污染土地是指含有能对人身健康、环境或其它目标产生直接或间接危害的污染物的土地。污染会影响土地的价值,因此,污染土地价值评估问题近年来受到关注。文章总结了污染土地价值评估的研究进展,对关键概念进行探讨和界定,依据我国常用的几种传统土地价值评估方法,探讨如何进行修正以适应污染土地的价值评估,并对污染清理费用、环境责任费用、污名等一些关键问题进行讨论,提出污染土地的价值损失中必须考虑几个方面的不确定性：（1）与工程措施有关的清理费用的不确定性;（2）当前和未来管制要求的不确定性;（3）市场对污染损害反应的不确定性;（4）随着时间变化,市场对污染损害反应的变化。最后结合实际,说明污染土地价值评估不仅要探索新方法,也要在增加和完善环境方面的立法、进一步完善技术标准、促进学科的相互交流和发挥行业组织的主导作用等方面加强。     

Climate change and urban land systems: bridging the gaps between urbanism and land science

ABSTRACT

Land science has generated critical knowledge about how humans modify Earth’s surface and has advanced our understanding of land as a coupled human–environment system. However, to date, most work has been in frontier environments with less attention – both conceptually and empirically – on how urban land systems affect the carbon cycle. Much of what is known about urban areas and the carbon cycle is limited to aggregate levels of activities within urban areas, usually by sector, with little focus on how the spatial configuration of urban land systems affects carbon-emitting activities. Given that urban areas produce about 70% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions, it is crucial to understand the relationship between urban environments, the activities they influence, and the resulting carbon emissions. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge of how urban land systems affect carbon emissions and vulnerability, and identifies research gaps and opportunities for urban land science to contribute to climate change science, particularly through land architecture. We argue that more attention to urban land science conceptualization, measurement, and analysis would contribute to both fundamental knowledge about urban systems, as well as help identify policies and strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the urban scale.     

Relationships between runoff and land degradation on non-cultivated land in the Middle Hills of Nepal

SUMMARY

Rainfall-surface water runoff relationships have been examined for 912 rainfall events during the 1992 and 1993 monsoon seasons on 15 erosion plots on a variety of non-cultivated land uses in the Middle Hills, Nepal. Vegetation cover and type examined ranged from grassland and relatively undisturbed mixed broadleaf forest to subtropical Sal forest, in various states of degradation, and bare ground. Runoff was frequently generated on most plots and often by relatively small rainfall amounts (less than 5 mm) and low rainfall intensities (3 mm/h). Ground cover and canopy cover were significant factors in determining amounts of runoff. Runoff coefficients ranged from 1–2% under grassland and mixed broadleaf forest to 57–64% on the bare sites. Coefficients for Sal forest were between these two extremes; specific values depended on the level of degradation induced by human activity. The most degraded forest sites experienced runoff coefficients of 33%. Ground cover beneath the trees, especially leaf litter, was more effective in reducing runoff than the amount of canopy cover. Canopy cover was more effective during the less intense storms but was ineffective when the rainfall intensity was high. The results suggest that a minimum ground cover of 60% will keep runoff to within 10% of total rainfall amounts for most normal monsoons in the Middle Hills. This will also reduce the risk of gullying and surface soil erosion. It is the nature of the forest that is important and not its total area. In the study area, although the total area under forest had not changed, some of the forest had become more degraded with a corresponding increase in mean runoff rates. Increased runoff can occur even if the area under forest increases. Estimates of levels of degradation based solely on changing forest areas are likely to be inaccurate.     

围湖造田不同土地利用方式土壤有机碳和易氧化碳

围湖造田是我国20世纪50年代后期开始大量出现的与水争地的人类干扰活动。以太湖流域肖甸湖区为试验地,测定分析了该围湖造田区香樟（Cinnamomum camphora）林、水杉（Metasequoia glyptostroboides）林、毛竹（Phyllostachys heterocycla）林和农田4种不同典型土地利用方式35年后0～10 cm、10～20 cm、20～40 cm土壤有机碳和易氧化碳含量的差异,以及土壤易氧化碳的季节动态。结果表明：表层（0～10 cm）土壤有机碳含量林地显著高于农田,阔叶林高于针叶林。土壤易氧化碳含量随季节与土层深度的变化而变化,香樟林与毛竹林春夏季节大于冬季,水杉林与农田季节波动较平缓。4种土地利用方式下土壤有机碳和易氧化碳均随土层增加含量递减。与围湖地区内的溪流底泥相比,林地与农田表层土壤有机碳含量均有明显增加;与旱地发育的植被土壤相比,围湖后的土壤有机碳含量较低,易氧化碳含量较高,土壤有机碳稳定性较差。围湖造田作为人类对自然生态系统的一种干扰方式,显著改变了原有生态系统的碳循环特征,因此在研究全球碳循环中,围湖造田对生态系统碳循环的影响应该给予充分考虑。