An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

干旱对生态系统脆弱性的影响研究——以长江中下游地区为例

将干旱作为定性事件,以长江中下游地区为研究对象,基于生态系统过程模型的动态模拟,根据IPCC有关脆弱性的概念,以生态系统功能特征量偏离多年平均状况的程度及其变化趋势分别定义生态系统对降水变化的敏感性和适应性,在生态系统的尺度上评估其对干旱的脆弱性。结果表明,长江中下游区域生态系统对降水脆弱性的空间分布有较为明显的区域差异。轻度脆弱及以下的生态系统占区域总面积的65%,主要分布在区域的中南部。重度脆弱和高度脆弱区域约占20%,主要分布在长江中下游的西北部。区域内生态系统对降水变率的平均脆弱度为轻度脆弱。干旱会显著增加研究区生态系统的脆弱性,具体表现为干旱导致原本不脆弱的生态系统脆弱度增加,而对脆弱度较高的生态系统的脆弱性影响不大。不同类型生态系统对干旱的响应稍有差异,干旱导致森林生态系统和农业生态系统的脆弱性均有所增加,但农业生态系统对干旱的脆弱性更高于森林生态系统。在研究区内,干旱对生态系统的影响会持续一段时间,但在干旱过后一年,不论是农业生态系统还是森林生态系统的脆弱性均有进一步上升,但相对多年平均水平没有显著差异     

Human appropriation of aboveground photosynthetic production in the Czech Republic

We assessed human impacts on ecosystems by calculating the proportion of aboveground net primary production appropriated by humans (aHANPP) in the territory of the Czech Republic. The human appropriation of aboveground net primary production reached 21.5 Tg C per year in 2006 or 56% of the annual potential natural productivity. Harvested productivity equivalent aNPP_H is contributing to the overall appropriation of photosynthetic production by 80%. Considerable productivity losses have been induced by agricultural land conversion and urbanization. While artificial surfaces are responsible for the appropriation of whole ecosystem production, productivity of urban green areas and managed forests can even exceed natural productivity levels. In the period 1990–2000, the aHANPP dropped by 7%, but the indicator shows an increase by over 2% in the period 2000–2006. The indicator of human appropriation of net primary production enables translation of land cover changes into measures of ecosystem services affected by human activities. We found aHANPP to be a suitable indicator of human impacts on ecosystems, as it detects trends and enables spatial mapping of human impacts.     

基于随机森林与可变模糊集的城市洪涝脆弱性评估

洪涝灾害作为城市面临的重要自然灾害之一，对社会经济发展造成了重要的影响。首先从自然、经济、基础设施3个方面利用随机森林模型以数据驱动的方式筛选出了影响城市洪涝脆弱性的12项关键指标并据此构建了城市洪涝脆弱性评估指标体系。在此基础上，基于随机森林和熵权法计算指标体系权重，构建基于随机森林（RF）和可变模糊集（VFS）耦合的城市洪涝脆弱性评估模型（RF-VFS）。最后，以长江流域特大城市南京市为例，进行洪涝脆弱性评估，得到了影响南京市洪涝脆弱性的关键影响因素，并从完善城市洪涝管理政策、加强城市基础设施建设和防灾减灾应急措施3个方面提出了降低城市洪涝脆弱性的对策建议。结果表明：南京市洪涝脆弱性与汛期降雨量、硬地面积、地均GDP、城市道路网密度等指标呈较强关联；近20年南京市洪涝脆弱性等级呈上升趋势且高等级的年份出现频率愈加频繁，尤其是近5年洪涝脆弱性等级较高，研究结果与实际调研情况相符。该研究能为南京市相关管理部门加强洪涝管理和降低洪涝脆弱性提供决策参考，同时对其他城市的洪涝灾害管理也具有借鉴意义。     

基于遥感的长江中下游城市群高温热浪风险评估

由全球气候变暖以及快速城市化引发的极端高温热浪事件频发现象已经影响到人类的生产和生活。利用多源卫星遥感数据和社会经济统计资料,构建基于"高温危险性-社会经济脆弱性-风险适应性"的高温热浪风险评估体系,获取2017年长江中下游城市群250 m分辨率的典型高温热浪事件风险评估结果。结果表明:热浪风险等级高值区主要分布在城市群中心城市以及其他城市中心城区,主要是较高的城市高温和社会经济脆弱性共同作用结果,围绕中心城区向外扩散,风险等级呈逐渐降低趋势。大城市虽具有更好的高温适应性,但离应对城市化导致的高温危险性和脆弱性还显得不足,从高风险区域面积来看,长三角城市群热浪风险高于长江中游城市群,主要与城市化水平以及人口聚集程度有关。通过多源遥感信息,获取高分辨率的城市群高温热浪风险空间分布特征,能为城市化过程中城市有效应对高温风险,加强区域防灾减灾提供科学参考。     

土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响研究综述

土地利用/覆被变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和主要原因之一,不仅带来了地表结构的巨大变化,而且对生态系统服务也造成重要影响。土地利用变化和生态系统服务研究已成为国际上生态学和地理学等跨学科研究的热点之一。从土地利用变化和生态系统服务的概念及其影响因素分析入手,综述了土地利用面积变化、土地利用方式变化和土地利用空间格局变化等对生态系统服务的影响,归纳了土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响研究的主要方法和模型,分析了相关研究的不足,并提出了加强生态系统服务动态评估方法和时空动态评估模型的研究、强化土地利用变化对生态系统服务影响的生态学机制研究和注重土地利用变化下生态系统服务评估结果的集成应用研究等建议,以期对我国的土地利用变化与生态系统服务评估研究提供科学参考。     

城市绿地生态功能综合评价体系研究的新视角

在对城市绿地生态系统评价研究中人们关注的焦点主要集中在城市绿地为人类提供的生态服务功能,而忽视绿地自身运转功能。构建科学、完善的城市绿地生态系统功能综合评价体系,对于重新认识城市绿地生态系统的综合功能,提升绿地建设和管理水平具有重要的意义。本文分析了目前城市绿地生态系统功能评价容易忽略的绿地数量和面积与生态功能的关系、人工绿地生态系统与自然生态系统生态功能的差异、对城市绿地特殊生存环境和后期科学管护的忽视、只重视城市绿地功能和价值而忽视建设和管护成本以及绿地建设的内涵在城市园林绿化中被曲解等几个问题,在此基础上从绿地生存环境优良性、绿地健康状况、绿地综合效益评价、居民对绿地感知认识出发,探索并构建城市绿地生态系统功能综合评价体系,以反映城市绿地与城市环境之间的适应性和绿地是否能有能力提供足够的生态服务以及居民对绿地生态效益、景观效益、社会经济效益的感知和认同,旨在为城市绿地规划、建设和管护提供有力支撑和指导,更好发挥城市绿地生态系统综合效益。     

Governance objectives and instruments,ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation: the Chianti case study

The complex relationships between governance processes, ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation are receiving growing attention by the scientific community. The scope of research in this field is generally that of identifying main governance factors leading to success or failure in the sustainable management of ecosystems and biodiversity conservation, so to develop appropriate sectoral and intersectoral policies fostering sustainable use of natural resources. In this paper, a methodological approach is first presented and then applied to analyse the impacts of agriculture and rural policies on agro-ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation in the central hills of Tuscany, the Chianti area. This approach is focusing in particular on governance objectives and instruments used in the management of ecosystem services. A share-farming system based on multifunctional agriculture ruled Chianti until World War II. Then, after the abandonment of rural areas by share-farmers, governance objectives and ecosystem management were oriented towards the production of commodities such as wine and olive oil almost ignoring the provision of public goods such as soil erosion and water run-off control and biodiversity conservation. In order to achieve a more sustainable ecosystems management in Chianti, there is the need to develop a multifaceted governance strategy to reward appropriately the supplying of environmental goods and services by farmers.     

Ecosystem services and hydroelectricity in Central America: modelling service flows with fuzzy logic and expert knowledge

Because ecosystem services are generally not produced and used in the same place, their assessment should consider the flows of services from ecosystems to users. These flows depend on the characteristics and spatial distribution of ecosystems and users, the spatial relationships between them, and the presence of filters or barriers between ecosystems and users. The objective of this paper is to map the ecosystem services provided to the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan hydroelectric sectors, which are crucial sectors for national sustainable development and depend directly on hydrological ecosystem services. The paper presents an approach for modelling the flows of multiple services from diverse ecosystems to diverse users through different kinds of filters in a landscape. The approach uses expert knowledge and fuzzy numbers to handle uncertainties. The analyses for Costa Rica and Nicaragua show how the approach helps identify priority areas for the conservation and restoration of forests for the services they provide to the hydroelectric sector. As such, it is a useful tool for defining spatially targeted policies for the conservation of ecosystem services and for involving the users of ecosystem services in ecosystem management.     

Floods and human health: A systematic review

Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004–2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs.     

Flood management: prediction of microbial contamination in large-scale floods in urban environments

With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities, insurance companies and residents to better understand, prepare for and manage a large-scale flood in urban environments.     

重庆市主城区城市扩张对生态系统服务影响的时空评估

城市建设用地扩张存在无序蔓延的现象,这种现象导致了生态系统服务功能的衰退,进而影响社会、经济和生态的协调发展。以重庆市主城区为研究对象,基于DMSP/OLS数据和Landsat数据分析了2005～2015年城市扩张的时空特征,基于MODIS NDVI数据、农作物产量数据、植被覆盖类型数据、气象数据和土壤类型数据等,利用食物供给模型、CASA模型和SCS_CN模型模拟了2005、2015年单位面积粮食供给、NPP和径流深度的空间分布与变化,最后,通过相关性分析阐述了不同发展区域生态系统服务的时空变化和权衡协同关系变化,探讨了城市扩张过程中面临的问题与挑战,并对未来城市发展提出几点建议。主要结论如下:(1)将重庆市主城区按照发展水平的高低划分为发达区、发展区和远城区;时间方面,2005～2015年建设用地共增加了373.9 km~2,发达区由于建设用地分布处于较饱和状态,建设用地的扩张量最小,发展区的扩张量最大。空间方面:建设用地沿着东北西南方向延伸扩张,东北偏东方向的渝北区和江北区受"两江新区"建设的影响,建设用地增量最大;(2)2005和2015年食物供给、固碳和土壤蓄水服务功能在发达区最低,发展区次之,远城区最高,且三种生态系统服务功能均存在显著衰退现象,衰退幅度最大的区域是发展区,与城市扩张最剧烈的区域在空间上吻合;(3)生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系受城市发展程度的影响;(4)发展区是生态系统服务功能下降最大的区域,食物供给是衰退最显著的生态系统服务功能。通过研究发现,重庆市建设用地扩张存在"冒进"蔓延的现象,这种现象破坏了生态系统功能,降低了环境容量,影响市民居住的舒适性,为此针对城市扩张过程中出现的问题提出了几点发展建议。研究结果引为解析重庆市主城区城市化过程中的问题成因,寻求城镇化的协调发展之路,合理规划城市发展提供了科学依据。     

How do local communities adapt to climate changes along heavily damaged coasts? A Stakeholder Delphi study in Ky Anh (Central Vietnam)

The Central Vietnamese coast faces increasing impacts on the local livelihoods of coastal communities as a result of the increasing natural hazards which include tropical storms, heavy rains, and floods. A challenge for the local populations is improving their adaptation capacity to climate change hazards in a sustainable way. This study deals with the impacts of climate change-associated hazards and adaptation capacity in coastal communes of the Ky Anh district, Ha Tinh province along the coast in Central Vietnam. A combination of the Stakeholder Delphi technique and the DPSIR (drivers–pressures–states–impacts–responses) framework was used. Delphi questionnaires allowed assessing the consensus among the respondents of a stakeholder group. Twenty questions and 20 statements were listed reflecting the DPSIR components. Thirty-six panel members, which were randomly selected from four stakeholder groups which included local authorities, farmers, fishermen, and fish traders, were involved in a two-round Delphi process. The results show that, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are main drivers (D); migration, calamities, population growth, mineral mining, aquaculture processing, and agriculture are main pressures (P); changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, increasing intensity of storms, floods, and droughts indicate main states (S); changes in agricultural land use and productivity are main impacts (I); construction of and upgrading dykes and irrigation systems should be the principal responses (R) in the vision of the local stakeholders. The Kendall’s W value for the second round is 0.681, indicating a high degree of consensus among the panel members and confidence in the ranks. Overall, the study advocates developing sustainable ecosystems, an upgraded New Rural Planning, and renewable energy strategies as the main local adaptations to climate change hazards in this area.     

Urbanisation Without Development: Environmental and Health Implications in African Cities

Sustainable development advocates for a balance between socio-economic development and the environment in the pursuit of human advancement. In Africa, high population growth and inadequate infrastructure in urban areas exert pressure on the environment and this threatens the health and wellbeing of urban residents. The population of the African continent until the 1960s was predominantly rural. This scenario has taken a swift turn and some of the major shifts in the global urbanisation process are taking place on the continent. Factors including natural increase in the population, rural–urban migration, strife and hunger leading to the internal displacement of populations have exacerbated the urbanisation process in Africa. The situation has been worsened by the imposition of Western development policies, including structural adjustment programmes on African nations, which has eroded the subsistence base of rural agricultural communities and further ignited rural urban migration. The failure of industry to absorb the increasing labour force has created massive unemployment and deepening poverty crisis in urban centres. Inadequate provision of infrastructure and services to meet the growth in urban populations has resulted in inefficient spatial development of urban centres, the proliferation of squatter settlements, inadequate basic amenities including potable water, sanitation and waste disposal. Poor environmental sanitation has resulted in the upsurge of infectious diseases and deteriorating urban health. Urban populations in Africa are also the worst affected by newly emerging diseases, particularly HIV/AIDS. The poor bear a disproportionately large share of the problems due to their particular vulnerability to environmental and health risks. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

An integrated and quantitative vulnerability assessment for proactive hazard response and sustainability: a case study on the Chan May-Lang Co Gulf area,Central Vietnam

A natural factors-based approach was developed to examine proactive responses to hazards and improving sustainability on the Chan May-Lang Co Gulf area, Central Vietnam. The approach was based on a weight-of-evidence method within an integrated and quantitative vulnerability assessment in which the spatial relationship between a set of evidential factors (lithology, distance to the coastline, altitude, slope, aspect, drainage, wind speed during storms, and land use and cover) and a set of hazard locations was combined with the prior probability (total vulnerability) to obtain the posterior probability of hazard occurrence. The result showed that 44.3 % of the study area had high to very high total vulnerability, due to the high density of vulnerable objects and frequency of severe damage from typhoons, floods, landslides, and erosion. The result also demonstrated that the contribution of natural factors was directly proportional to total vulnerability in approximately 75 % of the study area, indicating a high dependence of vulnerability on natural factors. In the remaining areas, low contributions were found in the high and very high vulnerability areas dominated by high anthropogenic activities. In contrast, natural factors were important contributors to total vulnerability in areas characterized by dense vegetation, consolidated rocks, and altitude greater than 300 m, reflecting high natural resilience. The present study demonstrated that a proactive approach may provide appropriate measures to mitigate hazards and to increase the sustainability of the study area.     

基于CVM调查法评估城市公共绿地服务价值 ——以西部省会城市为例

随着人口增长和城市化程度越来越高,作为城市土地利用类型之一的公共绿地往往最容易被改变性质和用途。开展城市公共绿地价值评估,是当前城市规划、绿地保护与建设中迫切需要解决的问题。通过梳理西部城市群中典型的甘青宁3个省会城市的公共绿地存在的主要问题,并采用CVM调查法评估城市公共绿地的服务价值。研究表明：兰州市城市公共绿地提供的生态服务总价值约为 3 324~3 761 万元之间,西宁、银川两市因城市规模相对较小,城市公共绿地提供的生态服务总价值较兰州市略低;分析社会因素对支付意愿的影响,得出职业、收入、性别等变量对支付意愿的正向影响作用较大;比较单位公共绿地面积的生态服务价值产出可以发现,兰州市单位公共绿地面积的生态服务价值产出最高约为1.57~1.77元/m²,兰州市城市公共绿地的生态服务价值产出效率较高。     

Social preferences towards ecosystem services provided by cloud forests in the neotropics: implications for conservation strategies

Despite the importance of neotropical cloud forests as providers of ecosystem services to society, they are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world. We analysed the importance of three cloud forest reserves in central Colombia as providers of ecosystem services, as well as the social support to conservation actions in these ecosystems through willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to give up time (WTT) estimates. Our results highlight the high commitment of all users of the cloud forest areas towards the conservation of the ecosystem services provided by these strategic ecosystems. We found that the most important perceived ecosystem services were water supply and habitat maintenance for species. Our findings also suggest that the respondents’ ecological knowledge (measured as the awareness of the ecosystem services supplied by cloud forests) was an important factor in determining both WTP and WTT for conserving cloud forests. Moreover, our results indicate that WTT should be a viable technique to explore individual preferences of different stakeholders towards conservation activities in cloud forests. Based on our results, we propose a conservation strategy of cloud forests that considers different users’ socio-economic and environmental characteristics, in which both experimental and experiential knowledge should be incorporated in order to promote collective action.     

基于生命力指数与集对分析的城市生态系统健康评价

鉴于城市生态系统的生命特征,引入城市生命体概念,构建包括生产力、生活态、生态势和生机度的城市生命力指数,分别针对经济子系统、社会子系统、自然子系统及生态调控子系统来综合反映城市生态系统健康状况.引入集对分析这种不确定理论与方法,在充分考虑城市生态系统健康不确定性与相对性的基础上,构造各被评价城市与最优评价集的相对贴近度,开展城市生态系统相对健康状况比较研究,以促进城市生态系统健康水平的整体提升.利用基于集对分析的城市生命力指数综合评价模型及信急熵权重,比较了北京、上海、武汉、广州等16个城市2005年的生命力指数相对状况,结果表明:2005年,厦门、上海、北京、青岛等城市的生命力指数处于被评价城市中相对较高等级,即城市生态系统健康状况较优;而重庆、西安、银川、哈尔滨、成都等城市处于相对较低等级,即城市生态系统健康状况较劣.     

Coastal wetland loss and environmental change due to rapid urban expansion in Lianyungang,Jiangsu, China

To address the growing need for developable land, many coastal cities are draining and filling wetlands, transforming them into urban built-up areas, and thereby substantially altering the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate an integrative approach for investigating the dynamics and impacts of coastal development in China’s Jiangsu Province, where urban expansion has resulted in extensive wetland losses and sea reclamation (the process of creating new land from ocean or coastal waters). Remotely sensed data reveal that landscape change in the study area has been accompanied by an increase in total impervious surface area and an increase in mean surface “heat island effect.” These indicators of change can be detected with remote sensing data and used to support a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for urban coastal planning. Changes detected in Lianyungang during 2000–2006 suggest that reclaimed areas are environmentally sensitive and should be a focus of concern in future development planning, which has historically targeted coastal salt pond wetlands for conversion to land for the development. Given the current and projected rate of coastal development in China and elsewhere in the developing world, our findings and assessment approach have implications for coastal management decisions in the developing coastal zones of China and other regions of the world that are experiencing rapid urban growth.     

长江经济带城市扩张的时空特征与生态响应

量化识别城市扩张在不同发展阶段的时空特征，有助于从宏观上认知城市扩张态势，理解城市化的生态响应。以Landsat TM/OLI影像为数据源，分析了近30a（1986~2016年)长江经济带3个省级城市和4个地级市的城市扩张，包括建设用地的时空变化和扩张模式，以及扩张的生态效应。结果表明：(1)建设用地扩张量在过去30a呈线性递增过程，平均扩张速率在2006~2016年降低，表明建设用地由增量扩张向存量开发转型，但地级市的转型滞后于省级城市;(2)蔓延式扩张比例下降而填充式扩张和飞地式扩张不断增加，说明城市扩张模式由粗放蔓延型向紧凑集约型转换;(3)建设用地从快速扩张到稳定扩张的过程与植被覆盖从退化到管控的过程一致，印证了建设用地扩张与植被覆盖度的时空关联性。同时，建设用地扩张导致的生态系服务价值负值不断增加，较大幅度的降低了生态系统服务总价值。面临城市扩张进程中出现的植被覆盖退化和建设用地生态系统服务负值过大的问题，合理而有力的规划政策实施在未来城市发展中尤为重要。