Mapping Human Dimensions of Climate Change Research in the Canadian Arctic

This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.     

Towards a Tipping Point in Responding to Change: Rising Costs,Fewer Options for Arctic and Global Societies

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.     

Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

A Richer,Greener and Smaller Alpine World: Review and Projection of Warming-Induced Plant Cover Change in the Swedish Scandes

Alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes. This course of biotic landscape evolution has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling. Continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities. These aspects are highlighted by an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation in the Swedish Scandes. This forms the basis for some tentative projections of landscape transformations in a potentially warmer future. Notably, these results and projections are not necessarily valid in other regions and differ in some respects from model predictions. Continued monitoring is mandatory as a basis for generation of more realistic vegetation and ecosystem models.     

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta’s economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang’s coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.     

Soil organic carbon storage in a mountain permafrost area of Central Asia (High Altai,Russia)

The thawing and subsequent decomposition of large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) currently stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region are projected to result in a ‘positive’ feedback on global warming. The magnitude of this feedback can only be assessed with improved knowledge about the total size and geographic distribution of the permafrost SOC pool. This study investigates SOC storage in an under-sampled mountain permafrost area in the Russian High Altai. SOC stocks from 39 soil pits are upscaled using a GIS-based land cover classification. We found that the top 100 cm of soils in Aktru Valley and the adjacent Kuray Basin only holds on average 2.6 ± 0.6 kg C m⁻² (95% confidence interval), of which only c. 1% is stored in permafrost. Global warming will result in an upward shift of alpine life zones, with new plant cover and soil development at higher elevations. As a result, this type of mountain permafrost area might act as a net C sink in the future, representing a ‘negative’ feedback on global warming.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01433-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutional Stakeholder Perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Path Dependencies and Path Change in Complex Fields of Action: Climate Adaptation Policies in Germany in the Realm of Flood Risk Management

The spatial and temporal repercussions of climate change are of an extremely complex nature. Coping with climate change is, first and foremost, a challenge to political decision making and, considering the long-term effects of the climate system, to planning. However, there have never been more doubts that the political-administrative system is able to meet these requirements. Although much evidence has been put forward in favor of such skepticism, sometimes, it is dangerous to overstate the existing limits. Drawing on two case studies in the area of flood risk management in Germany, the article illustrates how and why significant path change came about. In both cases, the state proved to still being a pivotal actor, due to a number of functions that cannot be assumed by other actors. However, other actor groups—such as actors from science, the media, NGOs, and citizen groups—play a significant role as well by providing relevant expertise and influencing the public discourse, thus mobilizing significant political pressure.     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

退塘还湿生态修复效果评估——以天津七里海湿地为例

为筛选“退塘还湿”生态修复策略与技术方法,在天津七里海湿地选择腾退渔塘,开展了辅以先锋物种种植的人工强化恢复与自然保育恢复的“退塘还湿”生态修复对比实验。结果表明：恢复实验期间,人工强化恢复区与自然保育区共计调查到植物物种81种,其中自然保育区植物物种48种,强化恢复区植物物种77种;强化恢复区浮游植物、浮游动物、底栖生物的生物量分别为4.53~80.45、6.75~109.90、4.22~26.20 mg∙L⁻¹,其Shannon-Weiner指数也较为稳定,分别维持在2.58~3.13、1.55~1.82、0.29~0.58;实验期间,强化恢复区与自然保育区的湿生植物、挺水植物、浮游动植物及底栖动物的Shannon-Weiner指数和Pielou均匀度指数以及土壤微生物alpha多样性均无显著差异(P>0.05)。基于以上结果,对于塘堤原本就有芦苇等高等植物生长且距离天然湿地较近的鱼塘“退渔还湿”,建议采取自然保育的恢复方式。本研究结果可为华北地区腾退渔塘湿地修复提供参考。     

Effects of different food (Chlorella) concentrations on the chronic toxicity of cadmium to survivorship, growth and reproduction of Echinisca triserialis (Crustacea: Cladocera)

Extraneous factors have been shown to greatly modify pollutant stress. The present study was conducted with the objective of determining whether differences in food levels could modify chronic toxicity of cadmium to the various life-history parameters of the cladoceran Echinisca triserialis. Laboratory experiments were conducted on a sublethal range of cadmium (0, 2.5, 5.0, 10 and 20 microg litre(-1)) on life-history parameters such as survivorship, longevity, life expectancy, age at first reproduction, total fecundity, neonate size, net reproductive rate (R0), generation time (T), intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) and growth of Echinisca triserialis in relation to different food (Chlorella) levels of 0.5 (low), 1.5 (medium) and 4.5 (high) x 10(6) cells ml(-1). Cadmium levels of 10 microg litre(-1) and above, and low food levels, had a profound effect in decreasing the magnitude of all parameters studied. EC50 levels computed for life-history parameters, such as longevity, life expectancy at birth, total fecundity, R0 and T, were in the range of 2 to 21 microg litre(-1) cadmium, and this is indicative of extreme adverse effects on the population dynamics of E. triserialis when exposed to low food levels. At high food levels the EC50 was not achieved for cadmium in the toxicant range studied. The significance of these results is discussed in relation to field conditions.     

Bioavailability of heavy metals in fresh water Tilapia nilotica (Oreachromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758): Potential risk to fishermen and consumers

The study was undertaken to assess the accumulation of some heavy metals (Cr, Co, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and Cd) in different tissues (muscle, gills, heart, liver, brain, bone and skin) of Tilapia nilotica. It is one of the most edible fish species in Egypt and was collected from a commercial fish farm in order to evaluate their potential risk to fishermen and consumers. This fish farm is fed with discharged water containing agricultural, industrial, sewage and domestic wastes. The length-weight relation and condition factor calculation of Tilapia nilotica samples showed a significant linear regression (r² = 0.920) and an average condition factor of 4.1 g/cm³. This indicated that the health status for the studied fish samples was good. Metal pollution index (MPI) values for the determined heavy metals in the different tissues reflected that the muscle was the only tissue that had the lowest content. Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) values for the investigated heavy metals were lower than those reported for the permissible limits. The data were evaluated by using ANOVA statistical analysis. For appraising the human health risk effects of heavy metals in fish muscle, estimated dietary intake (EDI) and hazard quotient (HQ) were determined. HQ levels indicated that Cr and Co were the only heavy metals among the determined ones that had values more than unity. Also, their relative contributions in fish consumptions were Cr> Co> Pb> Ni> Cu> Cd> Zn. The highest average HQ value of chromium determined in this study referred to the possible adverse effects of Cr on human health. Accordingly, the potential public health risks from dietary exposure to hazardous contaminants in fish species from fish farms must be continually subjected to research, regulation and debate.     

Occurrence and fate of alkylphenols and alkylphenol ethoxylates in sewage treatment plants and impact on receiving waters along the Ter River (Catalonia, NE Spain)

The partitioning of alkylphenols in the dissolved and particulate matter of influents, effluents, accumulation onto sludge and the impact of sewage treatment plant upon receiving waters was studied along the Ter River basin (Catalonia, NE Spain). A solid-phase extraction or pressurized liquid extraction followed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was developed and permitted to determine target compounds with high efficiency in waters, particulate material and sludge. Nonylphenol mono- and diethoxylate, nonylphenol and octylphenol partitioned preferably upon particulate matter and sludge, whereas long chain NPE(3-15)O prevailed in the dissolved phase and was released by effluents. Within the treatment process, a net accumulation of alkylphenols in sludge was found, producing up to 148g/t/month. The removal efficiency of alkylphenols was of 37-90% and depended on the treatment. Assessment on the fate of these contaminants within STPs is discussed in terms of flow rates, biological oxygen demand and tons of sludge produced.     

Effects of repeated exposure to malathion on growth, food consumption, and locomotor performance of the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis)

Effects of repeated pollutant exposure on growth, locomotor performance, and behavior have rarely been evaluated in reptiles. We administered three doses of malathion (2.0, 20, or 100mg/kg body weight) to western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) over an 81day period. Eight and 23% mortality occurred at 20 and 100mg/kg (p=0.079) and 85% of lizards in the 100mg/kg group exhibited clinical symptoms of poisoning. Growth, food consumption, body condition index, and terrestrial locomotor performance were not significantly influenced by malathion. However, arboreal sprint velocity was significantly reduced in lizards receiving 100mg/kg. Fifty percent of lizards in the 100mg/kg group also refused to sprint in the arboreal setting (p=0.085). Based on these results, arboreal locomotor performance was the most sensitive metric of exposure we evaluated. Further study of compounds such as malathion is warranted due to highly variable application rates and exposure scenarios.     

Effects of environmental exposure and diet on levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in eggs of a top predator in the North Atlantic in 1980 and 2008

Concentrations of POPs in Great skua eggs from Shetland are among the highest in North Atlantic seabirds, with up to 11,600 μg/kg (ww) DDE and up to 17,900 μg/kg ww ∑PCB. Concentrations of legacy POPs were significantly lower in 2008 than 1980. Decreases were greatest for least persistent compounds. Median ∑PBDEs increased from 99 μg/kg ww in 1980 to 173 μg/kg ww in 2008. There were changes in Great skua breeding season diet, with more adult Herring and Mackerel and less Sandeel. These changes increase exposure to POPs, since Herring and Mackerel accumulate more POPs than Sandeels. In both years, eggs with higher δ¹⁵N had higher POP concentrations. In 1980, birds feeding more on demersal discard fish from trawl fisheries and less on Sandeels, had higher POP levels in eggs. In 2008, individuals feeding more on Herring and Mackerel, and less on discards, had higher POP levels in eggs.     

Effects of pH on the toxicity of cadmium, copper, lead and zinc to Folsomia candida Willem, 1902 (Collembola) in a standard laboratory test system

EC₅₀s for cadmium, copper, lead and zinc were determined for juvenile production of Folsomia candida at pH6.0, 5.0 and 4.5 in a standard laboratory test system. In contrast to most previous studies where metal toxicity was increased at low pHs, in our experiments there was no clear relationship between soil acidity and EC_{50-reproduction} in this species. The EC_{50-reproduction} values (μg g⁻¹) for cadmium and zinc were similar at all three pHs (pH6.0: Cd 590, Zn 900; pH5.0: Cd 780, Zn 600; pH4.5: Cd 480, Zn 590). In contaminated field sites adjacent to primary zinc smelters, zinc is invariably present in soils at concentrations of at least 50 times that of cadmium Thus deleterious effects of mixtures of these metals on populations of Collembola in such sites can be attributed to zinc rather than cadmium.     

Effects of glyphosate on the non-target leaf beetle Cerotoma arcuata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in field and laboratory conditions

This study aimed to assess the glyphosate application effects on the Cerotoma arcuata Oliver (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) population in glyphosate-resistant soybean crops. Field studies were conducted with glyphosate and the insecticide endosulfan to observe the effects of these pesticides on C. arcuata, on its damages in the crop and on the populations of natural enemies in glyphosate-resistant soybean crops. Moreover, the lethal and behavioral sublethal response of C. arcuata to glyphosate and endosulfan was conducted in the laboratory. The results of the field and laboratory experiments showed that glyphosate caused moderate toxicity and high irritability in C. arcuata and that endosulfan caused high toxicity and irritability. Therefore, the direct effect of glyphosate on C. arcuata was negative and does not explain the population increases of this pest in glyphosate-resistant soybean. However, the glyphosate also decreased the density of predators. Thus, the negative effect of glyphosate on the predators may be related to population increases of C. arcuata in glyphosate-resistant soybean crops, however, more studies are needed to better evidence this relationship. This study suggests that glyphosate can impact other non-target organisms, such as herbivorous insects and natural enemies and that the use of this herbicide will need to be carefully stewarded to prevent potential disturbances in beneficial insect communities in agricultural systems.