西南地区卫星林火监测系统的建立

本文对建立ＧＩＳ支持的ＮＯＡＡ卫星林火监测系统进行了分析．内容包括：监测区ＧＩＳ的形成；ＮＯＡＡ卫星图像叠加经纬度网格；ＧＩＳ与ＮＯＡＡ卫星图像的复合．１９９４年春天，我们对西南林区林火进行了１个多月的实时监测，证明了该系统具有林火分辨率高和定位准确的特点．是一个较为理想的林火监测系统。     

Forest Cover Change,Physiography, Local Economy,and Institutions in a Mountain Watershed in Nepal

This study assessed changes in forest cover in a mountain watershed in central Nepal between 1976 and 2000 by comparing classified satellite images coupled by GIS analyses, and examined the association of forest change with major physiographic, economic, and local forest governance parameters. The results showed an increase in forested area (forest plus shrublands) by 7.6% during 1976–2000. Forest dynamism (changes including improvement, deterioration, gain, and loss) was highest in low-elevation, south-facing and less-steep slopes that were closer to roads. Proportionately the highest net improvement and gain to forested area also took place in those locations. Forest degradation occurred at twice the rate of improvement in high elevation areas (> 2300 m). Forests located in urban and semiurban areas (i.e., a market-oriented economy) experienced a proportionately higher amount of net improvement and gain than forests in rural areas (i.e., a subsistence economy). Among the three governance arrangements, proportionately the highest net improvement and gain took place in semigovernment forests (forested area legally under the forest department but with de facto control and claim of ownership by local communities and/or municipality) followed by formalized community forests (including leasehold). Government forests, which were mostly found in the southern high mountains and had virtually open access, remained relatively stable during the study period. Over 50% of the watershed forests have not come under community-based management despite favorable policy and more than two decades of government intervention with continuous donor support. The findings indicate that the present one size fits all approach of community forest handover policy in Nepal needs rethinking to accommodate biophysical and socioeconomic variations across the country.     

Application of Likelihood Ratio and Logistic Regression Models to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using GIS

For landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified a Bayesian probability model, a likelihood ratio and statistical model, and logistic regression to Janghung, Korea, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of IRS satellite imagery and field surveys; and a spatial database was constructed from topographic maps, soil type, forest cover, geology and land cover. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect, and curvature of topography, were calculated from the topographic database. Soil texture, material, drainage, and effective depth were extracted from the soil database, while forest type, diameter, and density were extracted from the forest database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite imagery using unsupervised classification. The likelihood ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid to determine each factors rating for landslide susceptibility mapping. Then the landslide susceptibility map was verified and compared with known landslide locations. The logistic regression model had higher prediction accuracy than the likelihood ratio model. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

Forest and Farmland Conservation Effects of Oregon’s (USA) Land-Use Planning Program

Oregons land-use planning program is often cited as an exemplary approach to forest and farmland conservation, but analyses of its effectiveness are limited. This article examines Oregons land-use planning program using detailed spatial data describing building densities in western Oregon. An empirical model describes changes in building densities on forest and agricultural lands from 1974 to 1994, as a function of a gravity index of lands commuting distance to cities of various sizes, topographic characteristics, and zoning adopted under Oregons land-use planning program. The effectiveness of Oregons land-use planning program is evaluated based on the statistical significance of zoning variables and by computing estimated areas of forest and agricultural lands falling into undeveloped, low-density developed, and developed building density categories, with and without land-use zoning in effect. Results suggest that Oregons land-use planning program has provided a measurable degree of protection to forest and agricultural lands since its implementation.     

Land-Use Systems and Resilience of Tropical Rain Forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus,Mexico

Land-cover types were analyzed for 1970, 1990 and 2000 as the bases for determining land-use systems and their influence on the resilience of tropical rain forests in the Tehuantepec Isthmus, Mexico. Deforestation (DR) and mean annual transformation rates were calculated from land-cover change data; thus, the classification of land-use change processes was determined according to their impact on resilience: a) Modification, including land-cover conservation and intensification, and b) Conversion, including disturbance and regeneration processes. Regeneration processes, from secondary vegetation under extensive use, cultivated vegetation under intensive use, and cultivated or induced vegetation under extensive use to mature or secondary vegetation, have high resilience capacity. In contrast, cattle-raising is characterized by rapid expansion, long-lasting change, and intense damages; thus, recent disturbance processes, which include the conversion to cattle-raising, provoke the downfall of the traditional agricultural system, and nullify the capacity of resilience of tropical rain forest. The land-use cover change processes reveal a) the existence of four land-use systems (forestry, extensive agriculture, extensive cattle-raising, and intensive uses) and b) a trend towards the replacement of agricultural and forestry systems by extensive cattle-raising, which was consolidated during 1990–2000 (DR of evergreen tropical rain forest=4.6%). Only the forestry system, which is not subject to deforestation, but is affected by factors such as selective timber, extraction, firewood collection, grazing, or human-induced fire, is considered to have high resilience (2 years), compared to agriculture (2–10 years) or cattle-raising (nonresilient). It is concluded that the analysis of land-use systems is essential for understanding the implications of land-use cover dynamics on forest recovery and land degradation in tropical rain forests.     

Decision Support for Road System Analysis and Modification on the Tahoe National Forest

The United States Forest Service is required to analyze road systems on each of the national forests for potential environmental impacts. We have developed a novel and inexpensive way to do this using the Ecosystem Management Decision Support program (EMDS). We used EMDS to integrate a user-developed fuzzy logic knowledge base with a grid-based geographic information system to evaluate the degree of truth for assertions about a roads environmental impact. Using spatial data for natural and human processes in the Tahoc National Forest (TNF, California, USA), we evaluated the assertion the road has a high potential for impacting the environment. We found a high level of agreement between the products of this evaluation and ground observations of a TNF transportation engineer, as well as occurrences of road failures. We used the modeled potential environmental impact to negatively weight roads for a least-cost path network analysis to 1573 points of interest in the forest. The network analysis showed that out of 8233 km of road analyzed in the forest, 3483 km (42%) must be kept in a modified road network to ensure access to these points. We found that the modified network had improved patch characteristics, such as significantly fewer cherry stem roads intruding into patches, an improved area-weighted mean shape index, and larger mean patch sizes, as compared to the original network. This analysis system could be used by any public agency to analyze infrastructure for environmental or other risk and included in other mandated analyses such as risks to watersheds.     

Testing the Use of a Land Cover Map for Habitat Ranking in Boreal Forests

Habitat loss and modification is one of the major threats to biodiversity and the preservation of conservation values. We use the term conservation value to mean the benefit of nature or habitats for species. The importance of identifying and preserving conservation values has increased with the decline in biodiversity and the adoption of more stringent environmental legislation. In this study, conservation values were considered in the context of land-use planning and the rapidly increasing demand for more accurate methods of predicting and identifying these values. We used a k-nearest neighbor interpreted satellite (Landsat TM) image classified in 61 classes to assess sites with potential conservation values at the regional and landscape planning scale. Classification was made at the National Land Survey of Finland for main tree species, timber volume, land-use type, and soil on the basis of spectral reflectance in satellite image together with broad numerical reference data. We used the number and rarity of vascular plant species observed in the field as indicators for potential conservation values. We assumed that significant differences in the species richness, rarity, or composition of flora among the classes interpreted in the satellite image would also mean a difference in conservation values among these classes. We found significant differences in species richness among the original satellite image classes. Many of the classes examined could be distinguished by the number of plant species. Species composition also differed correspondingly. Rare species were most abundant in old spruce forests (>200 m³/ha), raising the position of such forests in the ranking of categories according to conservation values. The original satellite image classification was correct for 70% of the sites studied. We concluded that interpreted satellite data can serve as a useful source for evaluating habitat categories on the basis of plant species richness and rarity. Recategorization of original satellite image classification into such new conservation value categories is challenging because of the variation in species composition among the new categories. However, it does not represent a major problem for the purposes of early-stage land-use planning. Benefits of interpreted satellite image recategorization as a rapid conservation value assessment tool for land-use planners would be great.     

Forest planning across Europe: the spatial scale,tools, andinter-sectoral integration in land-use planning

New approaches to forest planning are needed to support the transition of European forests to sustainable management. The aim of this study is to review forest planning systems already in place throughout Europe by exploring a set of case-study countries reflecting the main silvicultural schools of Western Europe, including Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, and Slovenia.

A literature review and case-study data were used to assess the scale factors (vertical logic) as well as the relationships between forest planning and other environmental/land-use planning sectors (horizontal logic). The influence of EU policy on the development of forest planning is also discussed. As assessed using the vertical logic, the multi-scale and multi-topic planning approaches adopted in the countries studied here are highly heterogeneous. The horizontal logic shows that despite the importance of an inter-sectoral and harmonic relational framework between forest planning and the planning efforts of other sectors such as landscape and urban planning, the various plans are barely consistent with each other across the European countries studied here. Although interest is growing in the multi-functionality of forests, their sustainable management calls for the development of better integrated planning approaches across Europe.     

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.     

Allocation of River Flows for Restoration of Floodplain Forest Ecosystems: A Review of Approaches and Their Applicability in Europe

Floodplain forests are flood-dependent ecosystems. They rely on well-timed, periodic floods for the provision of regeneration sites and on tapered flood recession curves for the successful establishment of seedlings. These overbank flood events are described as regeneration flows. Once floodplain forest trees are established, in order to grow they also require adequate, although variable, river stage levels or maintenance flows throughout the year. Regeneration flows are often synonymous with flood flows and only occur periodically. There is a disparity between this need for varied interannual flows over the decadal time frame and the usual annual cycle of flow management currently used by most river management agencies. Maintenance flows are often closer to established minimum flows and much easier to provide by current operational practices.A number of environmental flow methodologies, developed in North America, Australia, and South Africa are described in this review. They include the needs of the floodplain environment in the management and allocation of river flows. In North America, these methodologies have been put into practice in a number of river basins specifically to restore floodplain forest ecosystems. In Australia and South Africa, a series of related holistic approaches have been developed that include the needs of floodplain ecosystems as well as in-channel ecosystems. In most European countries, restoration of floodplain forests takes place at a few localized restoration sites, more often as part of a flood-defense scheme and usually not coordinated with flow allocation decisions throughout the river basin. The potential to apply existing environmental flow methodologies to the management of European floodplain forests is discussed.     

Modeling Fire Susceptibility to Delineate Wildland–Urban Interface for Municipal-Scale Fire Risk Management

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to ?1 SD from the mean FS value ( ${\text{WUI}} = {\text{FS}} \geqslant - 1 \, [\bar \chi - \sigma ]$ ), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.     

Group utility indifference and resource management decision making

Natural resource managers often rely on the advice of specialists to aid decision making. However, disagreement among these specialists about the relative value of particular management objectives or the risks associated with implementing certain management strategies may complicate the decision effort. Multiattribute utility analysis can facilitate decision making by indicating how attributes of a problem are weighed by individual specialists. This information can then be used to outline bands of potential problem solutions that are acceptable to the advising group and may allow management to further its own objectives (possibly increased efficiency).An example is presented that relates to fire management planning efforts on national forests. Multiattribute utility functions developed from a survey of fire management professionals are used to identify utility-maximizing fire management strategies based on each strategy's level of economic efficiency and risk. Bands of utility-indifferent potential solutions are outlined based on measures of group consensus. It is pointed out that a subset of these would further management's goal (increased efficiency) without significantly altering the value assigned to the risk attribute by the specialists. Finally, the robustness of the technique is discussed with particular reference to environmental management problems and the role that proxy information often plays in decision making.     

Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India

Forest fires constitute one of the most serious environmental problems in several forested regions of India. In the Indian sub-continent, relatively few studies have focused on the assessment of biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires at a landscape scale and the spatial aspects of these relationships. In this study, we used fire count data sets from satellite remote sensing data covering 78 districts over four different states of the Deccan Plateau, India, for assessing the underlying causes of fires. Spatial data for explanatory variables of fires pertaining to topography, vegetation, climate, anthropogenic and accessibility factors have been gathered corresponding with fire presence/absence. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of the presence of fires as a function of the explanatory variables. Results for fire area estimates suggested that, of the total fires covering 47,043km(2) that occurred during the year 2000 for the entire Indian region, 29.0% occurred in the Deccan Plateau, with Andhra Pradesh having 13.5%, Karnataka 14.7%, Kerala 0.1%, and Tamilnadu 1.15%. Results from the logistic regression suggest that the strongest influences on the fire occurrences were the amount of forest area, biomass densities, rural population density (PD), average precipitation of the warmest quarter, elevation (ELE) and mean annual temperature (MAT). Among these variables, biomass density (BD) and average precipitation of the warmest quarter had the highest significance, followed by others. These results on the best predictors of forest fires can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address broad scale fire risk concerns, and also as a tactical guide to help forest managers to design fire mitigation measures at the district level.     

Forest Health,Collective Behaviors,and Management

This study compares community-based managed forests under different purposes of management, namely, state-driven conservation or community-designed utilization in two villages located in the Sopsai watershed, Nan Province, northern Thailand. The forest health under different intensity of uses is assessed in association with the collective behaviors and long-term purposes embedded in village social–cultural context. The study found no significant differences in forest succession and proportion in diameter at 1.3 m (dbh) class and height-class distribution of the forest under different use intensity. The forest for utilization also showed higher density and basal area of the local preferred species than the conservation forest. In the utilization forest, we also found a higher number of multipurpose and preferred species than in the conservation forest, which actually responded to the needs of the community in the long term to have more wood products (both firewood and timbers). The community-based forest management (CBFM) for utilization can also lead to natural regeneration and biodiversity similar to conservation forests. Through CBFM, forest resources can be managed to maintain the healthy condition under different intensities and respond to both community needs and external expectation. The findings also emphasize the importance of recognizing community needs and management objectives in watershed restoration and improving the productivity of forests under collective management.     

An Event-Based Approach for Examining the Effects of Wildland Fire Decisions on Communities

Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal and social organizational scales. These consequences are not limited to the fire event itself. Preparation for the possibility of a fire, actions that suppression agencies take during a fire, and postfire decisions all have consequences, if unknown currently. This article presents an "event-based" approach that can be useful for constructing and systematic discussion about the consequences of wildland fire to human communities. For each of the three major periods within this approach, agencies, communities, and individuals make decisions and take actions that have consequences. The article presents an integrated, temporally based process for examining these consequences, which is similar to others developed in the natural hazards and disaster management literature.     

Carbon isotope ratios in logged and unlogged boreal forests: Examination of the potential for determining wildlife habitat use

Due to assimilation of recycled CO₂ from litter decomposition and photosynthetic changes in carbon fractionation at low light levels, the foliage at the base of a forest is often more depleted in¹³C compared to that exposed to the atmosphere in either the canopy or in open clearings. This is referred to as the canopy effect. African research has indicated that these habitat differences in foliar ¹³C can be substantial enough to affect the carbon isotope ratios of resident fauna. Previous work documenting a 30-year chronology on moose teeth from Isle Royale National Park indicated a progressive depletion in¹³C and suggested that this could be due to forest regrowth following extensive burning. The present study examined the assumption implicit in this hypothesis that foliar ¹³C varies between open and closed boreal forest sites. I found a marginal canopy effect of 2 ¹³C difference between upper canopy and ground flora for a forest in northwestern Ontario and an average difference of 1.2 in under- and mid-story vegetation between closed forests and open clear-cuts. Because of these small differences, the utility of carbon isotope analysis in quantifying temporally integrated exploitation of deforested habitats will be low for northern boreal locations. In denser forests, such as those in the tropics or western North American where the canopy effect can be expected to be much greater, ¹³C analysis may still offer some promise for determining selection by wildlife of disturbed habitats.     

Socio-economic dynamics of forest loss in rural agro-ecosystems

Summary Agro-ecosystems in many of the developing economies are coming under increased pressure, especially in areas where population demands, weak economic growth, and debt burdens, are resulting in mass rural poverty and assault on environmental resources. The loss of forests is a double-edge blow for most rural and agricultural systems. The forests provide the resource substitutes for the many manufactured products which are scarce or physically and economically inaccessible, and they also provide congenial environments which support rural food systems by way of productive agricultural land opportunities.In many of the rural areas of Africa, in particular, forest stability is more threatened, and this requires both local and external responses to make sustainable development a possibility. This paper, which is based on a field study in Ghana by the author, identifies emerging socio-economic constraints in woodfuel systems in environments where demands on forest ecosystems are high. The degree to which such local socio-economic processes affect stability of forest ecosystems, and the conditions within which the research information could assist planners and resource managers towards sustainable use of forest ecosystems are analysed.Dr William Y. Osei was born in Ghana where he obtained a BA (Hons) Geography from the University of Ghana. He subsequently obtained an MA from Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada and a PhD from the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada. With teaching experience in Geography at the Canadian universities of Western Ontario, Brandon and Victoria, he currently holds the position of Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at Algoma University College.     

GIS-Based Support Tool System for Decision-Making Regarding Local Forest Protection: Illustrations from Orissa,India

A support tool system comprising risk and priority analyses was illustrated in a geographical information system environment and also tested with data from two forest protection areas for comparison of the system output. The system is recommended as a management monitoring tool for areas where village forest protection at a local level is taking place. The geographical area in the eastern part of India is subject to scarcity of forest resources and is representative in the context of widespread occurrence of local forest protection. Data used were topography, hectares protected, population census, distance to forest and other villages, degree of forest regeneration, presence of plantations, age of protection, surrounding forest resources, and population mix. Methods used were digitizing information for the systems' different layers, analyses of satellite information, field work, gathering of local information, and the application of five risk/priority analyses: erosion, ecological and institutional sustainability, conflict, and degree of dependency. Questions asked were how the different analyses should be interpreted and how the system could be kept updated. The results show that the system needs resource-demanding and field assistance to be kept dynamic. The system is also dependent on the interpretations of the analyses. The limits or levels of assistance for forest management depend on the resources available. The system illustrates how a tool can be utilized for decisions regarding input of resources. It can further be very useful in defining and comparing different areas in order to detect areas in need of assistance and the type of help needed.