Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.     

Climate change and Ontario forests: Prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity

Institutions play an important role in the adaptive capacity of a system in responding to climate change. This review paper characterizes the status of the collective institutional response (government, industry, First Nation, community, civil society) to climate change in the forest sector of the Canadian province of Ontario, and highlights the presence and nature of inter-institutional networks as part of the response. Based on a synthesis of the commonalities in the public administration and policy literature on tackling wicked problems, and the resilience literature, inter-institutional networks, which foster exchange of different types of knowledge, are an important aspect of enhancing the adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems such as the forest sector. Based on a content analysis of publicly available documents and insights gained from representatives of government, community members and non-governmental organizations, mitigation and adaptations strategies are described. At the provincial level there have been some new innovations in inter-institutional networks, but expansion of the forest stakeholders involved in such networks would further enhance adaptive capacity. In particular, it is important to network with First Nations and other forest-dependent communities who have a heightened vulnerability to climate change. The presence of a collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in the Ontario forest sector.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.     

Climate change mitigation and international finance: the effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism and the Global Environment Facility in India and Brazil

This study analyzes the effectiveness and efficiency of the two principal United Nations (UN) climate change mitigation finance mechanisms, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The realised abatement and costs of the two mechanisms in India and Brazil (using data from 28 GEF and 233 CDM project documents) are compared with theoretical marginal abatement cost curves, based on bottom-up technology studies. We find that both mechanisms have focused on negative and low-cost abatement potential but still leave substantial theoretical potential in this cost range untapped. CDM has more effectively harvested abatement potential of industrial gases and methane emissions, whereas GEF has more successfully targeted demand-side energy efficiency (EE) and transport emission reduction opportunities. CDM has excelled at capturing abatement potential in areas with a limited understanding of abatement, highlighting the shortcomings of theoretical estimates (such as Marginal Abatement Cost Curves) and the benefits of a market mechanism. In some sectors and technologies (particularly renewable energy), the two mechanisms overlapped, which suggests a need for better coordination in the future.     

Climate change control: the Lindahl solution

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region’s willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.     

Climate change adaptation in the Sahel

Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review.     

Climate change and mining in Canada

Climate is an important component of the operating environment for the Canadian mining sector. However, in recent years mines across Canada have been affected by significant climatic hazards, several which are regarded to be symptomatic of climate change. For the mining sector, climate change is a pressing environmental threat and a significant business risk. The extent to which the mining sector is able to mitigate its own impact and adapt to climate change will affect its long-term success and prosperity, and have profound economic consequences for host communities. This paper draws upon case studies conducted with mining operations in Canada involving in-depth interviews with mining professionals and analysis of secondary sources to characterize the vulnerability of the Canadian mining industry to climate change. Five key findings are discussed: i) mines in the case studies are affected by climate events that are indicative of climate change, with examples of negative impacts over the past decade; ii) most mine infrastructure has been designed assuming that the climate is not changing; iii) most industry stakeholders interviewed view climate change as a minor concern; iv) limited adaption planning for future climate change is underway; v) significant vulnerabilities exist in the post-operational phase of mines. This paper argues for greater collaboration among mining companies, regulators, scientists and other industry stakeholders to develop practical adaptation strategies that can be integrated into existing and new mine operations, including in the post-operational phase.     

Climate change and transdisciplinary science: Problematizing the integration imperative

In this article we critically examine the ‘integration imperative’ in transdisciplinary environmental science and build on social constructivist and political theories to suggest alternative approaches of knowledge co-production in transdisciplinary settings. Our argument builds upon a body of literature in social studies of science to cull insights about knowledge co-production, social learning, and the ecology of team science, particularly as it relates to climate change adaptation. Couched in this transdisciplinary literature, we demonstrate, is the assumption that integration necessarily can and should be a regulative ideal. We critique this assumption by examining the ‘messy’ politics of achieving consensus among radically different, and sometimes irreconcilable, ways of knowing. We argue that the integration imperative conceals the friction, antagonism, and power inherent in knowledge co-production, which in turn can exclude innovative and experimental ways of understanding and adapting to climate change. By way of conclusion, the final section explores three alternative models of knowledge co-production – triangulation, the multiple evidence-based approach, and scenario building – and illustrates their application in the context of transdisciplinary research in climate change adaptation in the arctic, focusing on alternative means of cross-boundary engagement with indigenous ways of knowing.     

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.     

印度：—个国际气候变化谈判中有声有色的主角

2008年12月13日,联合国气候变化大会延迟一天之后在波兰波兹南降下帷幕。在最后一次全会上,由于发展中国家提出的发达国家应将其征收的碳交易税的2％再增加一个百分点,即3％,用于帮助最不发达国家适应气候变化的要求被发达国家拒绝,谈判破裂。印度代表团的资深成员高什（Prodipto Ghosh）拍案而起,     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Climate change adaptation planning in agriculture: processes,experiences and lessons learned from early adapters

This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations—especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society—has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities.     

Climate change in the urban environment: Advancing,measuring and achieving resiliency

Climate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.     

Assessment of inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level: a case study from Western Ghats in India

Assessment of vulnerability is an important step in building long-term resilience in the forestry sector. The objective of this paper is to present a methodological approach to assess inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level. The approach involves use of vulnerability indicators, the pairwise comparison method, and geographic information system (GIS) tools. We apply this approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests of the Western Ghats Karnataka (WGK) landscape, which is a part of the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in India. Four vulnerability indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope, are selected. We find that forests in 30, 36, 19, and 15 % grid points in this region show low, medium, high, and very high inherent vulnerability, respectively. The forest showing high and very high inherent vulnerability are mostly dry deciduous forests and plantations located largely on the eastern side of the landscape. We also find that canopy cover is one of the key indicators that determine the inherent vulnerability of forests, and natural forests are inherently less vulnerable than man-made plantations. Spatial assessment of inherent vulnerability of forests at landscape level is particularly useful for developing strategies to build resilience to current stressors and climate change in future.     

Climate vulnerability index - measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural Lower Himalaya,India

Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is being proposed to assess climate change vulnerability of communities with a case study. The index consists of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability such as Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capability. Exposure is defined by ‘Natural disaster and Climate variability’, however Sensitivity by ‘Health’, Food’, and ‘Water’ and Adaptive Capability by ‘Socio-demographic profile’, ‘Livelihood strategies’, and ‘Social networks’. Respective parameters were based on the peers and literature. The CVI vulnerable status ranges from high (0) to low (1). Household questionnaire survey was undertaken from two regions namely, near to district (NDH) and away to district (ADH), in Srinagar, Uttrakhand, India. Data for desired parameters for CVI was collected from 50 randomly selected households. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. High vulnerability was observed for livelihood strategies, food and natural disaster for ADH households, and health and water for NDH households. It was found that the adaptive capability and sensitivity of ADH households was higher than NDH, however, exposure realization was similar in both the regions. The CVI was 0.69 and 0.64 for NDH and ADH, respectively, suggests high vulnerability to NDH households. This pragmatic CVI approach may be used to assess and monitor vulnerability under various stress condition, and/or evaluate potential program/ policy effectiveness in various data-scarce regions by comparing various anticipated scenarios with baseline. Further, the result obtained by index may have implications for developing adaptation or coping strategies to the region.     

Climate change and the growth of the livestock sector in developing countries

Livestock production systems will inevitably be affected as a result of changes in climate and climate variability, with impacts on peoples’ livelihoods. At the same time, livestock food chains are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture and livestock in particular will need to play a greater role than they have hitherto in reducing emissions in the future. Adaptation and mitigation may require significant changes in production technology and farming systems, which could affect productivity. Given what is currently known about the likely impacts on livestock systems, however, the costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change in the aggregate may not represent an enormous constraint to the growth of the global livestock sector, in its bid to meet increasing demand for livestock products. Different livestock systems have different capacities to adapt or to take on board the policy and regulatory changes that may be required in the future. Vulnerability of households dependent on livestock, particularly in the drier areas of developing countries, is likely to increase substantially, with concomitant impacts on poverty and inequity. The capacity of these systems to adapt and to yield up their carbon sequestration potential deserves considerable further study. Comprehensive frameworks need to be developed to assess impacts and trade-offs, in order to identify and target adaptation and mitigation options that are appropriate for specific contexts, and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to poverty alleviation and economic development.     

CDM在全球变暖中升温

打开"google",输入"气候变暖",1240000,是它的搜索结果.如果你还有一点耐心,你就会发现,2007年度关注"全球气候变暖"的热情几乎高过了往年的总和.它已经不再是环保人士的专利,而变成了一个放进政府工作报告的重要议题,成为公众关注的热点.     

Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals

Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.