Analysis of meteorological parameters for dense gas dispersion using mesoscale models

The current study focuses on characterizing the atmospheric details required for dense gas dispersion analysis resulting from release of cryogenic liquids like LNG. The study investigates the effectiveness of coupling the prognostic MM5 mesoscale model with the CALMET diagnostic model for producing meteorological conditions that is characteristic of dry and arid regions like Qatar, with non-neutral boundary conditions. MM5-CALMET wind fields and temperature data are compared with the meteorological field observations from the Doha International Airport (DIA) on a monthly basis, daily basis and hourly basis to study the effect of different averaging periods. The monthly averages replicate the annual patterns of meteorological parameters very well. However difference in observation and model are observed for wind speed and wind direction variable. The daily averages obtained from the model are in good agreement with the observation for wind speed and temperature. For hourly averaging, the model is found capable of mimicking the temperature of a given location, but not wind speed and direction. The prediction of wind direction parameter using MM5-CALMET is moderate for any averaging period. The sub-optimal performance of wind direction variable is attributed to grid resolution of vertical and horizontal layers of MM5-CALMET model. Additionally a case study is performed to illustrate the effect of variation of meteorological parameters on the lower flammability limits (LFL) resulting from flammable dense gas release of LNG. The case study demonstrates the issues that arise in a risk analysis study when “wrong” meteorological data could be used. The overall study indicates that utilizing the coarsest prognostic meteorological model output in a diagnostic model provides an effective option for generating meteorological inputs for dispersion studies.     

Unified correlations for vent sizing of enclosures at atmospheric and elevated pressures

Innovative vent sizing technology is presented for explosion safety design of equipment at atmospheric and elevated initial pressures. Unified correlations for vent sizing are suggested. They are modifications of previously reported correlations verified thoroughly for experimental data on vented gaseous deflagrations under different conditions but only at initial atmospheric pressure. Suggested correlations are based on experimental data on vented deflagrations of quiescent and turbulent propane–air mixtures at initial pressures up to 0.7 MPa. Typical values of turbulence factor and deflagration–outflow interaction number are obtained for experimental vented deflagrations at initial pressures higher than atmospheric.

“Blind” examination of new vent sizing technology on another set of experiments with methane–air and propane–air mixtures has shown that predictions by suggested vent sizing technology are better than by the NFPA 68 guide for “Venting of Deflagrations”.

In the development of recently reported results for initial atmospheric pressure it has been concluded that the innovative vent sizing technology is more reliable compared to the NFPA 68 guide at elevated initial pressures as well. Moreover it is crucial that the calculation procedure remains the same for arbitrary deflagration conditions.     

AFTOX烟团扩散预测模型参数敏感性分析

通过设置不同环境气象条件的风险污染源,选取最大高峰浓度和最大高峰浓度出现的时间为考察指标,采用正交试验法,分析环境风险评价预测模型AFTOX中大气稳定度、事故处地表粗糙度、事故处地表类型和干湿度对其预测结果的影响。分析结果表明,当风速一致时,大气稳定度对最大峰值浓度的影响总是大于事故处地表粗糙度以及事故处地表类型和干湿度,而最大峰值浓度出现的时间对各参数的敏感性无变化。     

Influence of wind speed profile and roughness parameters on the downwind extension of vulnerable zones during dispersion of toxic dense gases

The accidental release of toxic chemicals, which are heavier than air and stored under pressure, may create an emergency scenario in an industrial plant. The extension of vulnerable distance in the downwind direction is an important criterion in framing an emergency management plan of that industrial area. There are several studies showing the role of surface level meteorological and topographical features on its propagation and dispersion just after its release from a container. In the present study, vertical variation of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer and surface roughness parameter have been considered to study their roles on the impact of downwind extension of vulnerable distances. A catastrophic release from a tonner having 900 kg of liquid chlorine has been considered, and SAFETI Micro developed by DNV Technica, UK has been utilized in the consequence analysis of this release. The analysis results have been explained for various atmospheric stability classes and surface wind speeds.     

北京市城市街区PM10浓度日变化特征及其影响因子

为了解北京城市街区PM10浓度日变化特征及其影响因素,利用2003年10月BECAPEX(Beijing City Air Pollution Experiment)街道、街区及周边小区4个测点PM10浓度的对比观测试验资料和同期街道机动车流量、采样点附近自动气象站风速及探空资料进行了综合对比分析.通过天气诊断和统计学分析相结合,初步分析了北京市城区街道大气污染物PM10浓度日变化特征及机动车排放污染、气象条件对PM10浓度日变化的影响.结果表明,试验期间北京市城区街道PM10浓度日变化特征存在明显差异,交通源污染物PM10浓度日变化具有单峰与双峰型差异的特殊性.工作日PM10浓度日变化出现双峰,周末PM10浓度日变化仅有单峰出现; 交通污染源和气象条件对城市街区PM10浓度日变化特征的影响程度存在空间差异.离交通污染源较近的街区PM10浓度日变化受机动车排放污染的影响程度较大,而离交通源较远的小区PM10浓度受机动车排放污染的影响相对较小; 不稳定天气条件下交通污染源影响范围较小,在特定天气条件下,气象条件的影响强度可显著超过交通污染源的影响.     

The importance of weather variations in a quantitative risk analysis

As more and more quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) are performed for petrochemical facilities around the world, the variety of techniques used in these analyses continually expands. Although the emphasis is often placed on risk's two constituents, consequence and probability, many of the contributing elements get marginalized, or even lost in the analysis. One such element is the weather data. Changes in wind speed and atmospheric stability affect the size and extent of impact zones, while the different wind directions modify how the impacts are mapped in the area surrounding each release point. Weather data is often defined by three variables (wind speed, atmospheric stability, and wind direction), and is site-specific in nature, with definable probabilities for each triplet combination. Many QRA studies shortcut the quantitative nature of an analysis by condensing the weather data into a small number of combinations, with unpredictable results. By utilizing robust risk mapping techniques, it can be demonstrated that risk contours may be critically dependent on the number of wind speed/stability/direction combinations employed in the analysis. This paper will also demonstrate how a risk assessment can arrive at different conclusions based on the level of weather data detail applied in the analysis.     

Fire risk management system for safe operation of large atmospheric storage tanks

This paper has been prepared by its authors to show the benefits coming from the application of the fire risk assessment methodology prepared by the “LastFire^© Project” group of experts. Now a days this methodology seems to be very effective to face the fire risk connected with large atmospheric storage tanks. It has been developed during the period 1997–2005 the HSE & operations experts from experts 16 worldwide operating oil companies. The authors, by “ad hoc” created software package, show the benefit coming from the applications of the LastFire^© methodology and how, from this, using the methodology and the supporting tad, realize a coherent fire strategy in the form of a Fire Risk Management System. Same workflow could also be extended to the issues connected with other problems related with large atmospheric tanks storing hydrocarbons, such as environmental impact by soil pollution, to create a common frame walk of assessment not can be shared with authorities as well. The proposed methodology, moving from the original project, sets as an effective “Fire Hazard Management Approach” in line with the most recent trends (even enforced by the regulations) shared at international levels, that propose the integration of risk assessment with prevention and protection measures selection based on achieved risk reduction, costs, time needed, etc.     

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area

Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering a “domino effect” have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. The identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, “Seveso-II” Directive requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive. In the present study, a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect was applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. Recently developed equipment damage probability models were applied for the identification of the final scenarios and for escalation probability assessment. The domino package of the Aripar-GIS software was used for risk recomposition. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.     

HAZDIG: a new software package for assessing the risks of accidental release of toxic chemicals

HAZDIG (HAZardous DIspersion of Gases) is a user-friendly PC- based software for generating scenarios for the emissions and gaseous dispersion of hazardous chemicals. It can simulate accidental as well as normal release but has been specifically developed as a tool for studying accidental release of hazardous chemicals and the consequences. HAZDIG is made-up of five main modules—data, release scenario generation, dispersion, characteristics estimation, and graphics. HAZDIG incorporates the latest models for estimating atmospheric stability and dispersion. The data needed to run the models is easy to obtain and feed—properties of chemicals, operating conditions, ambient temperature, and a few commonly available meteorological parameters. A database containing various proportionality constants and complex empirical data has been built into the system. The graphics module enhances the user friendliness of the software, and enables presentation of the results in an easy-to-understand and visually appealing manner. The output of the software is formatted so that it can be directly used for reporting the results without the need of editing.     

危险气体泄漏扩散的实验方法研究

综述了研究危险气体事故泄漏扩散的3种实验方法,即全规模大型现场实验、实验室模拟和小型现场实验,详细讨论该3种试验方法在实施和应用中的优缺点。对小型现场实验的无量纲长度、速度、时间、大气稳定度、大气湍流、液滴的尺寸分布和沉降、源动量通量比例等重要参数的确定方法重点进行分析和阐述。小型试验法特别适用于模拟化学性质活泼的危险气体的泄漏扩散研究,可为安全评价、应急救援提供有价值的参考数据。     

Development of a method for predicting the ignition of explosive atmospheres by mechanical friction and impacts (MECHEX)

Mechanical friction and impacts is still today a main cause of ignition of explosive atmospheres (ATEX) in the industry and this trend seems to be stable in time. This situation certainly results from a significant gap of knowledge in the underlying mechanisms so that the parameters to play on are not precisely identified. In this programme of European dimensions, the process of degradation of the mechanical energy into heat during friction and impacts have been studied.

An extensive experimental programme is presented to this end. The mechanisms of dissipation of the mechanical energy into heat during friction has been studied with rubbing machines in which a slider equipped with temperature sensors rubs against a rotating wheel. For impacts, a new device has been developed using a special “air driven cannon” to propel a projectile accurately up to 50 m/s onto an inclined target. A very significant effort has been reserved to the investigation of the ignition mechanisms, not only for ATEX but also for dust accumulations.

Some “simple” modelling is proposed on purpose of practical applications. For frictional situations, a critical rubbing power is calculated without any limitations about any lower boundary concerning the rubbing velocity. For “impacts”, the relevant parameter for ignition is not the kinetic energy of the projectile but its velocity and the nature of the materials.     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

基于在线观测的北京冬季一次PM2.5重污染过程特征分析

选取2017年1月初北京一次典型PM_(2.5)重污染过程为研究对象,应用污染物在线监测仪器并结合气象要素对地面PM_(2.5)及化学组分质量浓度污染特征进行了分析,采用微脉冲激光雷达对垂直方向进行观测,分析边界层及消光系数的变化特征。结果表明,从PM_(2.5)质量浓度的演变过程来看,本次污染可大致分为爬升、重污染、清除3个阶段。重污染时期的气象特征为高湿、低压、低风速;南部琉璃河((336.8±118.6)μg/m~3)、永乐店((323.1±86.2)μg/m~3)PM_(2.5)污染水平相近,均高于城区车公庄((278.7±138.7)μg/m~3);碳组分和二次水溶性离子是PM_(2.5)的主要组分,占到PM_(2.5)质量浓度的58.09%(车公庄)、71.43%(琉璃河)、76.57%(永乐店);SO2-4质量浓度上升显著,在总组分中比例由非重污染时期的16.73%升高到重污染时期的22.29%;3处监测点SOR和NOR均值分别为0.57和0.24,表明重污染期间二次转化明显。垂直方向观测结果表明,重污染时期边界层高度明显降低;气溶胶近地面消光系数高,表明污染物主要集中在近地面层。     

Evaluation of hazard range for the natural gas jet released from a high-pressure pipeline: A computational parametric study

In the present study, the hazard range of the natural gas (NG) jet released from a high-pressure pipeline was investigated. A one-dimensional integral model was combined with a release model to calculate the length and width (i.e., size), and the shape of NG jet release. The physical parameters affecting the jet release of NG were categorized into three types: source release, environmental and time parameters. The effects of each type of parameters on the gas jet release rate, size and shape were evaluated systematically. The results show that all of these parameters have important influence on the hazard range of NG jet release. The source release parameters, including the pipeline length, the operation pressure of the pipeline, the release hole diameter and the pipe diameter, dominate the gas release rate through a hole and therefore the length and width of gas jet release. The gas jet release rate and size are found to be highly correlative with these parameters in terms of power curve regression analysis. The environmental parameters including the atmospheric stability, the ambient wind speed and the source height, have no influence on the gas jet release rate but have influence on the hazard range of gas jet by the turbulent mixing and dilution of NG with air. The time parameters including the concentration averaged time and the valve closing time which are related to the unsteady state jet release of NG, also show the influence on the hazard range of gas jet release. The results show that the decreasing valve closing time and increasing gas concentration averaged time are in favor of reducing the length and width of gas jet release. In addition, these computational parametric studies indicate that the parameters of source release and time have no significant influence on the shape of gas jet release (i.e., jet length/width ratio, LWR) which can maintain the values between 7 and 8. However, the environmental parameters have influence on the shape of gas jet release. These comprehensive investigations provide useful database of evaluating the hazard range for NG jet released from a hole on a high-pressure pipeline and also provide the foundation of decision-making for further fire and/or explosion evaluation and people evacuation.     

Health risk assessment of emissions from a coal-fired power plant using AERMOD modelling

Current electricity generation mix in Malaysia consists of 58% gas, 33% coal and 9% hydro. It is anticipated that by year 2019, the generation mix will be at 64% coal, 32% gas and 4% hydro. Due to the increase in coal consumption for power generation, there is a critical need to evaluate the health risks for the population living in the vicinity of a coal-fired power plant in Malaysia. To date, such study related to the plant in Malaysia has never been published. In this study, health risk assessment (HRA) for air emission from a coal-fired power plant in Malaysia was carried out. Two pollutants from the Proposed New Environmental Quality (Clean Air) Regulation 201X (Draft) (i.e. SO₂ and Hg) were assessed for non-carcinogenic health risk, and two trace elements (i.e. As and Cr) were assessed for carcinogenic health risk. Both short-term and long-term health effects were evaluated. Air dispersion modelling (AERMOD) was used to predict the ground level concentration (GLC) within 10 km radius of the emission source. Based on the HRA, different health risks were identified for short-term and long-term dispersion of the studied pollutants. The findings indicate that a detailed assessment on the short-term and long-term health effects of the emissions from coal-fired power plant in Malaysia with meteorological factor as one of the significant factors influencing the emissions level is needed.     

Safety analysis of slipping barefoot on marble covered wet areas

This study was conducted in order to determine the suitable surface processing techniques which will increase the safety of pedestrians, reducing the risk of slipping on wet floor coverings on which they walk barefoot. In the scope of the study, slip angle of surface-processed marbles in three different dimensions is determined by using DIN 51097 Standard “The determination of the characteristics that reduce slipping on wet, barefoot surfaces”. Slip angles were calculated with the help of an inclined plane method and by using three different surface processing techniques (polishing, honing and tumbling techniques) for five different types of marble. It was found that the parameters which affected slip angle values of the marbles were surface roughness, plate sizes, grain size of the abrasives used for surface processing, physical and mechanical properties. Statistical analysis was used to determine the relationship between these parameters. The marbles were then grouped according to safe utilization places depending on slip angle and surface roughness, according to the statistical results.     

Risk and system integrity concepts for safety-related control systems

This paper provides an overview of the concepts of “risk” and “safety-integrity” in relation to safety-related electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems. The paper is an abridged version of Annex A of the emerging International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard; “Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic systems”. Although based on Annex A, the authors have deviated in a few instances, from the strict wording of Annex A in order to more properly represent their own views. Where this occurs, a note in the text has been added to alert the reader of the deviation. The concepts of risk (including tolerable risk; safety integrity; safety-related system; System and Software Integrity Levels) are discussed.     

南京市大气PM_(10)浓度的估算模型研究

以南京市为例,利用空气污染指数API、气象数据和TERRA/AQUA卫星气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品,分析了南京市PM_(10)浓度的变化规律,在PM_(10)浓度与气象要素进行相关分析的基础上,初步建立了基于气象要素和AOD的PM_(10)浓度估算模型。结果表明,南京市PM_(10)浓度在每年11,12月或1月最高,7,8月最低,季节性变化表现为冬春季浓度最高,秋季其次,夏季最低,PM_(10)浓度有逐年下降的趋势,但年均值仍高于国家II级标准;除了大气混合层高度外,PM_(10)浓度与大气压、风速、气温、相对湿度、水汽压、能见度、气溶胶光学厚度都有较好的相关性;基于气象要素的PM_(10)浓度估算模型的绝对系数R~2为0.510、平均相对误差为26.04%,基于AOD的PM_(10)浓度估算模型以TERRA和AQUA卫星AOD平均值构建的最佳,绝对系数R~2为0.482、平均相对误差26.11%,两种模型对PM_(10)的预测预报具有一定的指示意义。     

AFRA – Heuristic expert system to assess the atmospheric risk of sulphide waste dumps

In 2006, an unprecedented atmospheric confined space accident took place in a sampling shed at the Sullivan Mine in Kimberley, British Columbia. This accident suggests that a risk assessment should be carried out on a regular basis at mine reclamation sites for many years after closure. In this paper, an Atmospheric Fuzzy Risk Assessment (AFRA) tool is described that can assess atmospheric risk given heuristic and measured data at such sites. It can also serve to transfer knowledge about atmospheric hazards in an enclosed structure. The system uses fuzzy logic to input and output information and to perform weighted inferencing. The paper describes the developmental process as well as system verification and validation based on a number of known test and reference waste dumps. AFRA is a heuristic expert system based on fuzzy logic and the first tool that was developed to assess the atmospheric risk of mine waste dumps. The atmospheric risk is estimated by fuzzy Mamdani system given the values of four major elements of risk comprising of: gas generation, gas emission, gas confinement, and human exposure. The ability of AFRA to adapt its risk assessment to different climate conditions is explained. There are many physical, chemical, and environmental factors which fluctuate over time affecting oxygen-depletion in waste dumps. AFRA can help mining engineers and mine managers recognize this type of danger when conducting a confined space inventory at a reclamation site.