Valuation of National Park System Visitation: The Efficient Use of Count Data Models, Meta-Analysis, and Secondary Visitor Survey Data

The National Park Service (NPS) currently manages a large and diverse system of park units nationwide which received an estimated 279 million recreational visits in 2011. This article uses park visitor data collected by the NPS Visitor Services Project to estimate a consistent set of count data travel cost models of park visitor willingness to pay (WTP). Models were estimated using 58 different park unit survey datasets. WTP estimates for these 58 park surveys were used within a meta-regression analysis model to predict average and total WTP for NPS recreational visitation system-wide. Estimated WTP per NPS visit in 2011 averaged $102 system-wide, and ranged across park units from $67 to $288. Total 2011 visitor WTP for the NPS system is estimated at $28.5 billion with a 95% confidence interval of $19.7–$43.1 billion. The estimation of a meta-regression model using consistently collected data and identical specification of visitor WTP models greatly reduces problems common to meta-regression models, including sample selection bias, primary data heterogeneity, and heteroskedasticity, as well as some aspects of panel effects. The article provides the first estimate of total annual NPS visitor WTP within the literature directly based on NPS visitor survey data.     

Who Visits a National Park and What do They Get Out of It?: A Joint Visitor Cluster Analysis and Travel Cost Model for Yellowstone National Park

Yellowstone National Park visitor data were obtained from a survey collected for the National Park Service by the Park Studies Unit at the University of Idaho. Travel cost models have been conducted for national parks in the United States; however, this study builds on these studies and investigates how benefits vary by types of visitors who participate in different activities while at the park. Visitor clusters were developed based on activities in which a visitor participated while at the park. The clusters were analyzed and then incorporated into a travel cost model to determine the economic value (consumer surplus) that the different visitor groups received from visiting the park. The model was estimated using a zero-truncated negative binomial regression corrected for endogenous stratification. The travel cost price variable was estimated using both 1/3 and 1/4 the wage rate to test for sensitivity to opportunity cost specification. The average benefit across all visitor cluster groups was estimated at between $235 and $276 per person per trip. However, per trip benefits varied substantially across clusters; from $90 to $103 for the “value picnickers,” to $185–$263 for the “backcountry enthusiasts,” $189–$278 for the “do it all adventurists,” $204–$303 for the “windshield tourists,” and $323–$714 for the “creature comfort” cluster group.     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

Proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity in Arches National Park: an application of computer simulation modeling

Public visits to parks and protected areas continue to increase and may threaten the integrity of natural and cultural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. Scientists and managers have adopted the concept of carrying capacity to address the impacts of visitor use. In the context of outdoor recreation, the social component of carrying capacity refers to the level of visitor use that can be accommodated in parks and protected areas without diminishing the quality of the visitor experience to an unacceptable degree. This study expands and illustrates the use of computer simulation modeling as a tool for proactive monitoring and adaptive management of social carrying capacity at Arches National Park. A travel simulation model of daily visitor use throughout the Park's road and trail network and at selected attraction sites was developed, and simulations were conducted to estimate a daily social carrying capacity for Delicate Arch, an attraction site in Arches National Park, and for the Park as a whole. Further, a series of simulations were conducted to estimate the effect of a mandatory shuttle bus system on daily social carrying capacity of Delicate Arch to illustrate how computer simulation modeling can be used as a tool to facilitate adaptive management of social carrying capacity.     

Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of the Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel-Cost Approach

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be €194 (range €116 to €448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.     

Multi-Destination and Multi-Purpose Trip Effects in the Analysis of the Demand for Trips to a Remote Recreational Site

One of the basic assumptions of the travel cost method for recreational demand analysis is that the travel cost is always incurred for a single purpose recreational trip. Several studies have skirted around the issue with simplifying assumptions and dropping observations considered as nonconventional holiday-makers or as nontraditional visitors from the sample. The effect of such simplifications on the benefit estimates remains conjectural. Given the remoteness of notable recreational parks, multi-destination or multi-purpose trips are not uncommon. This article examines the consequences of allocating travel costs to a recreational site when some trips were taken for purposes other than recreation and/or included visits to other recreational sites. Using a multi-purpose weighting approach on data from Gros Morne National Park, Canada, we conclude that a proper correction for multi-destination or multi-purpose trip is more of what is needed to avoid potential biases in the estimated effects of the price (travel-cost) variable and of the income variable in the trip generation equation.     

Improving Operational Planning and Management of National Parks in Turkey: A Case Study

The purpose this study was to improve operational planning and management of national parks in Turkey to balance conservation use and sustainable management. Souksu National Park (SNP) was chosen as the study area. The data were obtained from interviews of 182 visitor groups (in total, 819 people) and analyzed using correlation, factor, discriminant, and regression analyses. It was found that the most important factors affecting operational planning and management of SNP are (1) travel cost, (2) visitor welfare level, (3) intensity of use, (4) size of visitor group, (5) type of recreational demand. The main source of visitors to SNP is from a zone within a 0–90-km radius. This region comprised 53.85% of total visitors to the park. The capital of Turkey (Ankara) is the most important source of visitors from within this zone. The optimum activity mix in SNP is also determined. Picnicking, viewing the scenery, and nature walks or trekking comprised the main uses of the park. It is anticipated that these findings will help to improve operational planning and sustainable management of the national park and the environment.     

Water quality standards: Everglades National Park

Water quality criteria were developed for delivery waters to Everglades National Park. The park receives a minimum of 12.34 m³/sec (315,000 acre-ft/yr) of water from controlled sources external to its boundary. These waters often originate from areas that are or potentially are impacted from urban and agricultural developments. When, in 1970, the U.S. Congress guaranteed minimum water deliveries to Everglades National Park, it also required that these waters be of good quality.The Everglades National Park water quality data base was analyzed from 1970 to 1978 at both in-park and water delivery sites to determine the current level of delivery water quality and to select representative delivery sites. It was found that current delivery water quality was sufficiently high to be adopted as criteria against which future water quality could be compared. From the delivery sites S-12C and L-67A all data were combined from 1970–1978 for 36 parameters including macronutrients, heavy metals, and field parameters such as DO, pH, and specific conductance. Mean concentrations and upper limits were computed and tabulated for comparison during future monitoring programs. These criteria were subsequently adopted through a joint memorandum of agreement between the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. National Park Service.     

The Influence of Place Attachment and Experience Use History on Perceived Depreciative Visitor Behavior and Crowding in an Urban National Park

Research on recreational place attachment suggests that place identity, or the emotional/symbolic ties people have to places, and place dependence, which describes a functional attachment to a specific place, influence the perception of social and environmental site conditions. Recent research, however, has found that place attachment is not always a predictor of such perceptions. This study investigated the influence of place attachment and experience use history on the perception of depreciative visitor behavior, recreation impacts and crowding in an urban national park. In 2006, 605 on-site visitors to the heavily-used Viennese part of the Danube Floodplains National Park were asked about past experience, place attachment, perceptions of depreciative visitor behavior, crowding, changes in visitor numbers during the past ten years, and recreation impacts on wildlife. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two dimensions of place attachment. Linear regression analyses found that place identity and place dependence were related to some perceived depreciative visitor behaviors and visitor number changes but not to crowding, while experience use history additionally related to perceived crowding. Visitors with higher place attachment and past experience were more sensitive to social and environmental site conditions. Management implications of the findings are discussed.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: Economic Values of Recreational Power Boating Resources in Pennsylvania

/ The travel cost method was used to estimate the economic value of seven major power boating resources in Pennsylvania. A significant relationship between number of visitor trips and cost per visitor trip existed for five of the seven water bodies. The annual total value for those five resources was $396 million, which was 2.5 times greater than the total out-of-pocket expenditures of approximately $157 million visitors spent to visit them. Research results can help resource managers plan and craft programs and policies that are founded on economic values of the natural resources involved.     

Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.     

A travel cost study to estimate recreational value for a bird refuge at Lake Manyas, Turkey

This paper investigates the recreational economic value of bird watching in the Ku?cenneti National Park (KNP) at Lake Manyas, one of the Ramsar sites of Turkey and an important endangered species habitat. The lake and KNP provide considerable benefits for the region, although they have faced many environmental conflicts due to diverse stakeholders’ needs. An economic valuation for the benefits provided by the KNP is important data for stakeholders and local authorities. The travel cost method is used to estimate recreational demand for the KNP. The recreational value of the KNP is 103,320,074 USD annually. Results shed light on important policy issues and help to resolve conflicts among stakeholders. This calculated value is considerably higher than the annual investment and operation expenditures of the KNP. Sustainability of the important species around the lake could be achieved if the region's inhabitants are compensated by KNP visitors.     

An Interpretive Study of Yosemite National Park Visitors’ Perspectives Toward Alternative Transportation in Yosemite Valley

The National Park Service (NPS) is increasingly focusing on alternative transportation systems in national parks to address environmental and social problems arising from a historical reliance on personal automobiles as the primary means of visitor access. Despite the potential advantages, alternative transportation may require a reorientation in the way that Americans have experienced national parks since the advent of auto-tourism in the early twentieth century. Little research exists, however, on visitor perspectives towards alternative transportation or the rationale underlying their perspectives. It remains unclear how transportation systems affect visitors’ experiences of the park landscape or the factors influencing their travel behavior in the parks. This report presents an interpretive study of visitor perspectives toward transportation management in the Yosemite Valley area of Yosemite National Park, California. Qualitative analysis of 160 semi-structured interviews identified individual psychological factors as well as situational influences that affect visitors’ behavior and perspectives. Individual psychological factors include perceived freedom, environmental values and beliefs, prior experience with Yosemite National Park and other national parks, prior experience with alternative transportation in national parks, and sensitivity to subjective perceptions of crowding. Situational factors included convenience, access, and flexibility of travel modes, as well as type of visit, type of group, and park use level. Interpretive communication designed to encourage voluntary visitor use of alternative transportation should focus on these psychological and situational factors. Although challenges remain, the results of this study suggest approaches for shaping the way Americans visit and experience their national parks to encourage environmental sustainability.     

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individual's reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.     

Understanding and Managing Experiential Aspects of Soundscapes at Muir Woods National Monument

Research has found that human-caused noise can detract from the quality of the visitor experience in national parks and related areas. Moreover, impacts to the visitor experience can be managed by formulating indicators and standards of quality as suggested in park and outdoor recreation management frameworks, such as Visitor Experience and Resource Protection (VERP), as developed by the U.S. National Park Service. The research reported in this article supports the formulation of indicators and standards of quality for human-caused noise at Muir Woods National Monument, California. Phase I identified potential indicators of quality for the soundscape of Muir Woods. A visitor “listening exercise” was conducted, where respondents identified natural and human-caused sounds heard in the park and rated the degree to which each sound was “pleasing” or “annoying.” Certain visitor-caused sounds such as groups talking were heard by most respondents and were rated as annoying, suggesting that these sounds may be a good indicator of quality. Loud groups were heard by few people but were rated as highly annoying, whereas wind and water were heard by most visitors and were rated as highly pleasing. Phase II measured standards of quality for visitor-caused noise. Visitors were presented with a series of 30-second audio clips representing increasing amounts of visitor-caused sound in the park. Respondents were asked to rate the acceptability of each audio clip on a survey. Findings suggest a threshold at which visitor-caused sound is judged to be unacceptable, and is therefore considered as noise. A parallel program of sound monitoring in the park found that current levels of visitor-caused sound sometimes violate this threshold. Study findings provide an empirical basis to help formulate noise-related indicators and standards of quality in parks and related areas.     

A Comparison of Sampling Designs for Monitoring Recreational Trail Impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park

The dual goals of the Organic Act of 1916 and Wilderness Act of 1964 are to protect natural resources and provide quality visitor experiences. Park managers need metrics of trail conditions to protect park resources and quality of visitor experiences. A few methods of sampling design for trails have been developed. Here, we describe a relatively new method, spatially balanced sampling, and compare it to systematic sampling. We evaluated the efficiency of sampling designs to measure recreation-related impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park. This study addressed two objectives: first, it compared estimates of trail conditions from data collected from systematic versus spatially balanced sampling data; second, it examined the relationship between sampling precision and sampling efficiency. No statistically significant differences in trail condition were found between the 100-m interval and the spatially balanced datasets. The spatially balanced probability-based dataset was found to be a good estimate of trail conditions when analyses were conducted with fewer sample points. Moreover, spatially balanced probability-based sampling is flexible and allows additional sample points to be added to a sample.     

External threats: the dilemma of resource management on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National park,USA

The United States Congress established Grand Canyon National Park in 1919 to preserve for posterity the outstanding natural attributes of the canyon cut by the Colorado River. In some cases National Park Service attempts to maintain Grand Canyon's natural environment have been thwarted by activities outside the park. One of the most obvious external threats is Glen Canyon Dam, only 26 km upstream from the park boundary. Constructed in 1963, this gigantic dam has greatly altered the physicochemical and biological characteristics of 446 km of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. The river's aquatic ecosystem has been greatly modified through the loss of indigenous species and the addition of numerous exotics. We consider this anexotic ecosystem. The riparian ecosystem has been less modified, with addition of a few exotics and no loss of natives—this we consider anaturalized ecosystem.The great dilemma now faced by park managers is that, after 20 years of managing resources along a river controlled by Glen Canyon Dam, the Bureau of Reclamation has proposed major changes in operational procedures for the dam. Scientists and managers from the National Park Service, Bureau of Reclamation, and cooperating federal and state resource management agencies are using a systems analysis approach to examine the impacts of various Colorado River flow regimes on aquatic, riparian, and recreational parameters in the park. This approach will help in the development of management alternatives designed to permit the most efficient use of that river's natural resources without their destruction.     

An external validity test of intended behavior: Comparing revealed preference and intended visitation in response to climate change

We compare revealed preference and survey response estimates of changes in National Park visitation behavior from climate change. The revealed preference model is estimated from a time-series regression analysis of past visitation as a function of historic weather variability. We find no statistical difference between the revealed preference regression estimates and intended behavior estimates from a visitor survey for the total number of National Park visits. Confidence intervals for the two models overlap, and the mean estimates of the change in visitation are within 12% of each other. The paper concludes with the implications for natural resource planners and managers who must frequently evaluate the effects of alternative policies before the selection of a preferred alternative, and also must plan for accommodating changes in visitor use.     

Recreation demand analysis under truncation, overdispersion, and endogenous stratification: an application to Gros Morne National Park

Using on-site survey data from Gros Morne National Park in Newfoundland, this paper estimates and compares several truncated count data models of recreation demand. The selected model accounts not only for the truncated and overdispersed nature of the data but also for endogenous stratification due to the oversampling of avid users. Moreover, the model that allows for a flexible specification of the overdispersion parameter dominates on the basis of goodness of fit. The results are used to estimate the users' value of access to the park.     

Magnitude and distribution of option value for the Washakie Wilderness,northwest Wyoming,USA

Option value is estimated for the Washakie Wilderness, northwest Wyoming, USA, using the contingent valuation technique. Consumer surplus, the traditional measure of economic value, is estimated separately and compared with option value. Several populations are tested, including Washakie visitors, Yellowstone National Park visitors, and residents from four metropolitan test markets: Salt Lake City, Utah; Portland, Oregon; Nashville, Tennessee; and Orlando, Florida, USA. The average annual preservation option value (consumer surplus) expressed by on-site wilderness visitors is $46.17 ($80.13), by urban residents is $9.70 ($8.97), and by rural residents is $8.43 ($7.80). Four selected attributes are determined to be important in motivating option demand for the Washakie, including existence value, bequest value, the desire for an on-site visit, and interest in securing the visiting privileges of others. The results suggest that option value is important in wilderness valuation and that off-site users account for a large part of the economic value of wilderness.