重大工程项目灾害风险评估方法研究

论述了重大工程项目的灾害风险识别方法，包括德尔菲法和关联树法。从防灾投资、减灾费用、灾害损失三个方面介绍了灾害风险估计方法，给出了工程灾害风险评价的６项具体指标。最后，简要说明了工程灾害风险决策的步骤与模型。     

自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展

自然灾害风险评估是区域减灾防灾重要的基础工作之一。从风险概念和风险度的表达入手,探讨了自然灾害风险评估的对象及其构建的指标体系,对主要自然灾害风险评估方法进行了综合比较,并对灾害易损性评估研究进行了总结,认为对灾害风险下的生态系统易损性关注不多。因此以区域为研究尺度,构建了生态系统灾害风险评估框架,选择危害风险性指数反映灾害危险程度,选择防灾能力指数、承灾能力指数、恢复力指数等构建了生态系统灾害易损性评估指标体系。在对自然灾害风险评估研究认真梳理的基础上,认为复杂性灾害系统的研究、灾害易损性基础理论及定量方法的探索、自然灾害风险研究体系的时空尺度的扩展、自然灾害风险评估精度和可信度的提高是未来灾害风险评估值得重视的趋势。     

灾害分类体系研究

灾害分类是灾害学研究的一项重要课题。我国目前尚无统一的灾害分类方法。本文通过对灾害总体性质的研究分析，提出灾型、灾类、灾种三级分类体系。     

论灾害救助实力

本文论述了当前我国灾害救助工作的宏观背景和主要矛盾,提出了新形势下灾害救助工作的出路在于改革传统的灾害救助体制,增强灾害救助实力,进而重点探讨了灾害救助实力的多元结构、运作原则和运行机制。     

广义灾害、灾害链及其防治探讨

探讨了“广义灾害”提出的必要性,给出了它的定义。讨论了广义灾害,灾害、祸和灾害链的分类,共性和个性,以及它们在事物和人类发展过程中的作用,提出了广义灾害、灾害链的结构,破坏作用、直接损失量,放大作用和概念模型或数学模型,简略地讨论了防治灾害的指导原则和战略策略等问题。     

灾害信息网络与internet

灾害信息网络与ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ李志强（国家地震局地质所，北京１０００２９）不久前，以人口、资源、环境为主题的第十八届太平洋科学大会成功召开。大会的第六个减灾主题会专题讨论了现代通讯革命对减灾事业的巨大推进作用。来自世界十几个国家和地区的专家介绍了各个...     

灾害与节气关系的探讨

二十四个节气是中国古代的独特创造,是我国劳动人民为便于掌握农事活动而总结制定的时间段,在民间广为流传和应用。随着历法的外传,二十四个节气还流传到世界很多地方。早在春秋战国时期,就有了二十四个节气的记载,如《逸周书》中就记载了二十四个节气七十二候。古人经过上千年的观测总结,认识到节气日及其附近大气过程易于发生剧变,不仅暴发气象灾害,而且对地质灾害,尤其是强烈地震有触发作用。同时对人体生理亦产生影响,易引起人为灾害,如交通事故,火灾。古人还把无灾日称为黄道吉日,把易发灾日和灾难集中日称为黑道日。几千年来,人们正是利用天体、气象、物候等宇宙间的相互关系、相互影响、相互作用的客观规律来指导自己的经济活动和防御自然灾害的。     

论城市灾害管理模型

城市是人类抗灾,防灾的重点,加强城市灾害防治是城市,乃至整个国家可持续发展的必要保证,城市灾害管理是减轻城市灾害的主要的主要措施之一,本文用管理学,控制论,决策论的思想建立了城市灾害管理的模型。     

灾害研究中的灾异研究

随着国际减灾十年活动的展开,人类对灾害的重视与研究已进入了一个新的历史阶段。在我国蓬勃展开的减灾活动中有一个问题是亟宜引起重视或目前我们尚重视不够的,那就是灾害与灾异研究的区分与对待。灾害(这里指自然灾害)是自然因素对人类生命财产造成损害的现象、事件或过程。灾是指造成损害的现象或原因,害是它的结果。灾和害互为因果,相互依存。因为它们是和人类生存愿望相反的行为,所以人类总是想控制它,减少它。趋利避害是减灾活动的首要目的,人们以极大的注意力关注灾害是理所当燃的。但任何灾害都不     

Assessing differences in chemical disaster proneness: The community chemical hazard vulnerability inventory*

The burgeoning number of accidents with dangerous chemicals makes it incumbent upon community and regional planners to systematically deal with this problem. The first step invariably involves the assessment of the likelihood and type of incident which may impact a given area so that disasters may be averted or, at least, their effects mitigated. This paper presents one such assessment scheme, the Community Chemical Hazard Vulnerability Inventory (CCHVI). This instrument, aside from considering the type and volume of substances posing a threat to a designated area, considers the physical and human resources available, as well as the general state of readiness of the area (including such things as the interface of emergency-related organizations). The use of such vulnerability assessment instruments allows local emergency planners to identify particular dangers within their communities and permits regional planners to allocate funds for planning according to relative needs.     

General overview of the disaster management framework in Cameroon

Efficient and effective disaster management will prevent many hazardous events from becoming disasters. This paper constitutes the most comprehensive document on the natural disaster management framework of Cameroon. It reviews critically disaster management in Cameroon, examining the various legislative, institutional, and administrative frameworks that help to facilitate the process. Furthermore, it illuminates the vital role that disaster managers at the national, regional, and local level play to ease the process. Using empirical data, the study analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions of disaster managers. Its findings reveal inadequate disaster management policies, poor coordination between disaster management institutions at the national level, the lack of trained disaster managers, a skewed disaster management system, and a top‐down hierarchical structure within Cameroon's disaster management framework. By scrutinising the disaster management framework of the country, policy recommendations based on the research findings are made on the institutional and administrative frameworks.     

基于GIS的城市火灾风险评价及其在防灾规划中的应用

随着经济发展和城市化进程的不断加快,城市火灾事故不断增多,造成的人员伤亡和财产损失也越来越严重。本文通过构建城市火灾风险评价指标体系,利用GIS中的空间分析功能对各指标体系按其权重进行叠加,得出城市的现状火灾风险等级区划图。根据风险评价现状确定防灾减灾规划的目标,采取相应的防灾减灾措施,并对规划后的火灾风险状况进行了预测,得出规划后的火灾风险等级,从而为消防和规划部门减少和预防城市火灾提供依据和参考。     

Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation

Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process.     

长江中游西部地区洪水灾害的历史演变——人文因素与当前趋势

探讨了近3000年来长江中游西部洪水灾害发展的人文因素。古代（3000—700aBP）人口较少,多择地势高的岗地居住,只有少数沿江城市需要堤防保护;长江干流洪水可多处分道散流,所携带泥沙导致云梦泽解体消亡。自宋代开始,低地筑垸围湖,与水争地,但九穴十三口畅通,洪水灾害不严重。明代（700—450a B P）几乎完全堵塞了荆江北流的穴口,荆北大堤联成一体,但堤防薄弱,出现过30次决口成灾。清代以来,随着人口激增,与水争地矛盾加剧,堤防加高培厚,使荆江河道洪水位大幅度上升,溃堤和溃坝洪水灾害较明代成倍出现。同时,历代的“舍南保北”政策迫使长江干流大洪水中过半水量与泥沙向南泄入洞庭湖,曾使洞庭湖面积扩至6000km^2,以后洞庭湖迅速淤积萎缩。1949至1985年间,人口又一次迅速增长,进一步加强围湖垦殖,大量通江湖泊面积萎缩。除1954和1998年那样人所共知的严重洪水灾害外,内涝渍水灾害也非常严重,人类与洪水的矛盾达到了顶点。改革开放后,尤其是三峡大坝的修建,极大地改变了长江中游的水文情势,工业化与城市化的迅猛发展,农村人口压力减轻,而21世纪初期降水相对较少,因此当前相当一段时间长江中游洪水灾害大为缓和。应抓住时机,总结经验,在人地和谐的现代水科学技术理念指导下,制定21世纪前半期,特别是2020年前的长江水利和水资源发展规划,促使人与洪水和谐共处。     

中国地震灾害现状及地震灾害系统工程研究

本文在对中国地震灾害现状分析的基础之上，依据地震工作三大体系的要求和建设首都圈防震减灾系统工程的经验，提出了在我国建立地震灾害系统工程的设想，并对该系统进行了初步的设计和论证。分析研究表明，地震灾害系统工程可以涵盖地震工作的各个方面，并且具有系统化、法制化及高科技等特点，对我国实现减轻地震灾害的目标具有积极的推进作用。     

Country logistics performance and disaster impact

The aim of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact. The relationship is analysed through correlation analysis and regression models for 117 countries for the years 2007 to 2012 with disaster impact variables from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT) and logistics performance indicators from the World Bank. The results show a significant relationship between country logistics performance and disaster impact overall and for five out of six specific logistic performance indicators. These specific indicators were further used to explore the relationship between country logistic performance and disaster impact for three specific disaster types (epidemic, flood and storm). The findings enhance the understanding of the role of logistics in a humanitarian context with empirical evidence of the importance of country logistics performance in disaster response operations.     

Disaster risk reduction and the evolution of physical development regulation

In 1984 the Mitigation Implementation Conference recognized the need for effective management of urban development in terms of building standards and land-use zonation. In the intervening 25 years, significant progress has been made in the development of building codes and hazard mapping for disaster risk reduction; however, the failure to promulgate, implement and enforce regulation of development has resulted in the dramatic expansion of exposure and risk. It is now necessary to re-assess regulatory policy and practice. New approaches to regulatory compliance must be explored, including participatory regulation and reliance on cultural and religious bases for individual commitment to community safety.     

Internal communication a prerequisite for risk governance: hazard zone planning in South Tyrol,Italy

Mountain risk management is currently facing a scientifically driven, normative paradigm change towards risk governance, where communication and participation take on key roles. On the local level, hazard zone planning is a risk management tool to balance land-use developments and hazard processes, such as debris flows, avalanches, rock fall, mass movements or flooding. In this contribution, communication among stakeholders professionally involved in hazard zone planning (internal communication) is analysed by participant observation. Here, the quality of internal communication is seen both as an indicator and as a prerequisite for transition processes from risk management to risk governance. This case study of communication in hazard zone planning in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol points out pitfalls and challenges in an advanced, spatial planning scheme. Based on the concept of social learning, it is argued that the transition towards governance of mountain risks requires fundamental changes in the underlying normative models, objectives, organizational understandings, structures and qualifications of the administrative bodies. Proposals for change are provided.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.