转型期西安市产业结构演进分析

选取了12个产业指标,运用区位熵和灰色关联分析相结合的方法测度了西安市各产业的区位优势及产业结构的关联度,分析了转型期西安市产业结构的演进.结果显示,西安市的三次产业结构组合仍需升级优化;在各行业演进中,科技、金融和房地产具有显著的区位优势.此外,通过对各产业发展的相似性测度得出2003年之前就业人员在第一、二产业之间的2-3个产业部门游移,之后从业人员开始在第三产业的一般性服务业(5-7个部门)游移,这显示出第三产业未来巨大的发展潜力与活力.     

大连与相关城市综合发展能力比较研究

一个城市的综合发展能力是由包括规模指标、结构指标、效益指标、软硬环境指标等丰富内涵的经济、社会、环境综合与协调状况。根据经济与社会综合协调发展水平构建城市综合发展能力指标体系,应用主成分分析法对大连等19个城市的43个指标进行综合评判。根据计算结果,在进行综合评估的基础上,分别从经济发展水平、社会发展水平、发展与投资环境三方面对19个城市进行比较分析,对大连市存在的问题与原因进行了探讨。     

大连市海洋经济协调持续发展研究

能否实现海洋经济的协调持续发展,既取决于海洋产业结构的合理性,还取决于海洋经济系统内部之间的协调性。从静态和动态角度,对大连市海洋产业结构的合理性进行了分析,并采用主成分分析法分析了大连市海洋经济协调持续发展的问题,提出了处理海洋开发中的关系,促进及优化产业结构,实施科技兴海战略等相关对策,阐明实现海洋经济协调持续发展的具体路径。     

西北干旱区绿洲城市产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究——以张掖市为例

产业结构与就业结构的协调发展是实现区域协调发展的必由之路,是产业结构优化升级和劳动力充分就业的根本途径。选取张掖市为研究对象,从结构偏离度、就业弹性和协调度三个方面对西北干旱区绿洲城市产业结构与就业结构之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:1982—2014年,张掖市产业结构和就业结构均有所优化,但就业结构演变滞后于产业结构,未来应通过大力发展现代服务业,做强做大生态工业,推动第一产业与第二产业、第三产业的嫁接,实现张掖市的农业转型升级,促进经济健康稳定地增长。     

资源型城市产业结构动态调整的灰色关联分析——以国家级能化基地榆林市为例

产业结构的优化调整对资源型城市转变单一经济发展模式具有重要意义。基于榆林市产业发展的相关统计数据,在分析产业发展现状和产业体系形成路径的基础上,采用灰色关联分析法,就榆林市产业结构调整运行状况进行了相关分析。结果表明:榆林市产业结构呈现第一产业发展薄弱、第二产业主体独大、第三产业缓慢改观的欠合理发展现状。根据相关分析结果,提出以下建议:第一产业坚持打造全国知名的现代特色农牧基地,从粗放经营向品牌引领转变;第二产业应合理开采和提高转化效率,延长能化产业链条,推动高端能化产品、新材料和新兴技术产业的创新发展;第三产业应重点开发转战陕北红色旅游专线和塞北古城文化特色旅游资源,实施"全域旅游"创建工程,推进国内知名旅游基地建设。     

武汉城市圈产业结构动态分析

武汉市作为国家“两型社会”改革试点城市圈之一,又是武汉城市圈的龙头城市,在面临东部产业转移和国家积极调整产业结构的背景下,一方面必须积极承接东部转移产业,另一方面又必须调整产业结构,以保证经济的可持续发展.基于前人的研究,对武汉城市圈9个城市的三次产业发展情况进行区位熵分析,并结合武汉城市圈整体产业结构的洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数分析得出武汉城市圈9个城市的产业结构现状,以及在各个产业上的比较优势和产业结构相似性的情况,在武汉城市圈面临迎接产业转移和自身产业结构调整双重任务的前提下,结合可持续发展模式对武汉城市圈产业布局优化和产业结构调整提出政策建议.     

湖北省产业结构与环境污染关系计量分析

根据1990—2015年湖北省相关统计年鉴数据,选择6项环境指标,在SPSS软件支持下构建了综合污染指数。在分析综合污染指数和产业结构变动特征的基础上,通过建立VAR模型,实证分析了湖北省产业结构和环境污染的动态关系。结果表明:因子分析提取了两个因子,湖北省2012—2015年污染指数比1997—2011年低,但仍高于1990—1996年。产业结构优化率呈上升趋势,该值在2000年以后大于35%。采用VAR的动态模型,预测2015年、2016年、2017年的综合污染指数分别为0.672、0.713、0.725。湖北省环境污染对产业结构调整的反应有一定的滞后性。湖北省产业结构优化升级短期内能够减轻环境污染程度,整体来看产业结构优化升级对减轻环境污染作用有限。第二产业对解释综合污染指数预测方差分解起着重要作用,其次为第三产业。     

基于国际化大都市建设的西安产业结构优化研究

运用多元回归模型、产业结构偏离度模型和产业结构层次系数,对西安产业结构贡献度及合理化和高级化程度进行了定量分析,并将其与北京、上海的产业结构进行横向比较.结果表明,西安市经济总量不大,经济增长主要依靠第三产业;产业结构合理化趋势明显,产业结构高级化程度呈稳步上升态势,但与国际大都市仍存在较大差距.据此,提出产业结构优化调控对策.     

基于产业视角的榆林市城镇化协调发展研究

城镇化与产业协调发展是区域经济社会发展的关键环节。榆林市作为我国新兴的资源城市,产业结构发展严重失衡,与城镇化的相互作用十分有限。选取时间、空间两个角度对榆林城镇化历史和现状进行研究,在此基础上分析榆林产业结构特点及其形成原因,进而选取三次产业结构和就业结构指标,通过SPSS软件建模进行相关分析,得出三次产业对城镇化率的影响。最后将榆林市12个县(区)依据其自身的经济发展特点分成三种不同类型,给出城镇化与产业协调发展的相应机制与对策。     

我国副省级城市第三产业发展研究——以哈尔滨为例

第三产业发展水平是衡量一个国家经济实力的重要标准,综合评价第三产业,有助于正确认识我国各地区第三产业的发展水平。以我国15个副省级城市为研究对象,构建第三产业综合发展水平指标体系,运用主成分分析法,通过比较分析得出哈尔滨市第三产业发展中存在的问题,并提出相关对策建议。     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

MANGANESE CYCLE IN IMPOUNDMENT WATER

Manganese entering impounded water will undergo a cyclic transformation. Oxidation precipitates manganese from top waters. At the bottom of the lake, biological activity will render manganese soluble by both intracellular as well as extracellular activity. The study was made to demonstrate that biological reduction and transformation, organometallic complexation, together with the presence of carbon dioxide and the lowering of pH all have some effect on the solubility of manganese. Dissolved manganese may be brought back to top waters during the lake overturn and therefore deteriorates the water quality.     

Biodiversity and biotechnology

The maintenance of biodiversity is urged from many quarters and on grounds ranging from aesthetic considerations to its usefulness, particularly for biotechnology. But regardless of the grounds for preserving biodiversity, writers are generally in agreement that it should be preserved. But, in examining the various references biodiversity, such as species diversity, genetic diversity, and habitat diversity, it is apparent that we cannot aim to preserve biodiversityas such, since there are a number of conflicts in any such undertaking. In preserving one aspect of biodiversity, we damage another aspect. Five arguments which attempt to ground our moral concern for biodiversity are reviewed and critiqued, not only for their consistency but also for their power to move us to action. The final section of the paper shows how conflicts in the values of personal and environmental health can impair ethical action and especially policy formation.An earlier version of this paper was read at the conference on Agriculture, Food, and Human Values: Tradition and Change, Orlando, Florida, October 7–9, 1987.     

Surface applied water treatment residuals affect bioavailable phosphorus losses in Florida sands

Water treatment residuals (WTR) can reduce runoff P loss and surface co-application of P-sources and WTR is a practical way of land applying the residuals. In a rainfall simulation study, we evaluated the effects of surface co-applied P-sources and an Al-WTR on runoff and leacheate bioavailable P (BAP) losses from a Florida sand. Four P-sources, namely poultry manure, Boca Raton biosolids (high water-soluble P), Pompano biosolids (moderate water-soluble P), and triple super phosphate (TSP) were surface applied at 56 and 224kgPha(-1) (by weight) to represent low and high soil P loads typical of P- and N-based amendments rates. The treatments further received surface applied WTR at 0 or 10gWTRkg(-1) soil. BAP loss masses were greater in leachate (16.4-536mg) than in runoff (0.91-46mg), but were reduced in runoff and leachate by surface applied WTR. Masses of total BAP lost in the presence of surface applied WTR were less than approximately 75% of BAP losses in the absence of WTR. Total BAP losses from each of the organic sources applied at N-based rates were not greater than P loss from TSP applied at a P-based rate. The BAP loss at the N-based rate of moderate water-soluble P-source (Pompano biosolids) was not greater than BAP losses at the P-based rates of other organic sources tested. The hazards of excess P from applying organic P-sources at N-based rates are not greater than observed at P-based rates of mineral fertilizer. Results suggest that management of the environmental P hazards associated with N-based rates of organic materials in Florida sands is possible by either applying P-sources with WTR or using a moderate water-soluble P-source.     

Sources and Transport of Phosphorus to Rivers in California and Adjacent States,U.S., as Determined by SPARROW Modeling

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de‐trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small‐ and intermediate‐sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.