Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis

With economic development, the Chinese steel industry has rapidly expanded over the past three decades. However, this expansion has resulted in many problems, such as increasing energy consumption and excessive environmental pollution. Therefore, it is important to analyze the future steel demand in China. This study presents changes in steel production and apparent steel consumption in the years 1998–2010. Steel is mainly consumed by construction, machinery, automobiles, shipbuilding, railways, petroleum, household appliances and containers, and these nine industries are analyzed separately using stock based models. The study suggests steel demand in China will rise from 600 million t in 2010 to a peak of 753 million t in 2025, and then gradually decrease to 510 million t in 2050. The construction industry is the largest steel consumer, although its share of total steel demand will decrease in the future. Steel demand in automobile manufacturing, by contrast, will increase rapidly before 2035, and its share will increase from 6.0% in 2010 to 19.0% in 2050. Sensitivity analysis on the four major impact factors such as saturation levels, lifetime distributions, GDP and urbanization rate shows that saturation levels of different products greatly affect long-term and short-term steel demands, while GDP and lifetime distributions, especially the lifetime distribution of buildings, mainly affect the short-term and long-term steel demands, respectively.     

Water-Quality Monitoring and Biological Integrity Assessment in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: Status, Trends, and Loadings (1988–1994)

a production in the central, south central, and the south segments of the lagoon. In a system as large and complex as the lagoon, N and P limitations are potentially subject to significant spatial and temporal variability. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TN) was higher in the north (1.25 mg/liter) and lower in the south (0.89 mg/liter). The reverse pattern was observed for total P (TP), i.e., lowest in the north (0.03 mg/liter) and highest at the south (0.14 mg/liter) ends of the IRL. This increased P concentration in the SIRL appears to have a significantly large effect on chlorophyll a production compared with the other segments, as indicated by stepwise regression statistics. This relationship can be expressed as follows: South IRL [chlorophyll a] =−8.52 + 162.41 [orthophosphate] + 7.86 [total nitrogen] + 0.38 [turbidity]; R ²= 0.98**.     

Elephants Also Like Coffee: Trends and Drivers of Human–Elephant Conflicts in Coffee Agroforestry Landscapes of Kodagu,Western Ghats,India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world’s coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human–elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders’ perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a “wicked” problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.     

RESEARCH: Comparison of Temporal Trends in Ambient and Compliance Trace Element and PCB Data in Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985–1995

6+ ), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.     

Human–Carnivore Coexistence on Communal Land Bordering the Greater Kruger Area,South Africa

The aim of this study was to assess the potential for coexistence between rural people (living adjacent to a protected area) and predators (from the same area) ranging onto communal land. Ninety members of local communities bordering Manyeleti Game Reserve, which is contiguous with Kruger National Park, South Africa were interviewed. Respondents expressed diverging attitudes toward predators, which were more favorable among participants with higher education. Negative views were particularly due to fear of human and livestock losses, especially to lions, Panthera leo. Lions were thought to be the most abundant predator both within and outside the reserve. Lions were also the best known predator and were most often held responsible for killing livestock. Despite these livestock losses and a lack of conservation education, most participants voiced favorable opinions about large carnivore conservation, as predators were considered an integral part of the respondents’ natural heritage. Thanks to this cultural tolerance and also because of a largely accepted management policy regarding predator control, large carnivores and people can coexist in the vicinity of Kruger National Park.     

Erratum to: Elephants Also Like Coffee: Trends and Drivers of Human–Elephant Conflicts in Coffee Agroforestry Landscapes of Kodagu,Western Ghats,India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world’s coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human–elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders’ perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a “wicked” problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.     

Oil dependency,political institutions,and urban–rural disparities in access to electricity in Africa

In line with the resource curse literature, this paper examines the effect of oil dependency on the disparities in access to electricity between urban and rural areas in Africa, conditional on the quality of political institutions. Based on data from 36 African countries over the period 2000–2017, our investigation suggests that oil rents (% of GDP) increase urban–rural disparities in access to electricity. However, the quality of institutions shapes the effect of oil dependency on these disparities. Specifically, a 10% increase in the institutional quality score reduces the adverse effects of oil rent on electricity access disparity by around 19%, and the negative impact of oil dependency on urban–rural disparities is reversed when institutional quality reaches a score of 52% on a scale from 0 to 100. The robustness tests support these results and call for strengthening the quality of institutions to overcome the resource curse in Africa.     

Modeling the Impacts of Cetacean-Focused Tourism in Taiwan: Observations from Cetacean Watching Boats: 2002–2005

Cetacean-focused tourism in Taiwan has grown rapidly since 1997. This development, measured in terms of both number of tour boats and visitors, has resulted in many resource management challenges stemming from the absence of regulation and scientific data. To fill this void in empirical evidence, we used 464 sighting records from 2002 to 2005 to model the impact of cetacean-focused tourism. Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated cetacean avoidance responses to cetacean watching boats were strongly associated with pod size, mother–calf pairs, and cetacean-vessel distances. Mother–calf pairs abandoned their avoidance tactic by 55% compared to noncalf groups when tour boats approached. Second, the hazard ratio of abundance was 0.996, suggesting that the odds of encountering avoidance responses by the cetaceans decreased by 42% for every 100-member increase in the cetacean pod size. Last, distances maintained by boats from the cetaceans was positively related to avoidance responses (i.e., less avoidance behavior with closer interaction). Based on our findings, we have the following recommendations: (a) limit vessels from approaching mothers with calves, (b) limit vessels from approaching small groups of cetaceans, (c) reduced avoidance behavior to boat traffic may be a red flag for potential long-term disturbance, and (d) apply the “precautionary principle” based on the best scientific information available in cetacean-based tourism in Taiwan. These recommendations will help contribute to the sustainable development of cetacean-focused tourism in Taiwan.     

Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

Petrochemicals from oil,natural gas,coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030–2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030–2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0–100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:

• •Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500–900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400–800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.
• •CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.
• •Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included).

To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.     

Science–policy interactions in Austrian,Dutch, and Swiss climate policy: a comparative account

Scientific expertise plays an important role in the complex field of climate policy. Consequently, science–policy interactions have been institutionalized in many countries. However, science–policy arenas vary considerably across countries. Scholars mainly attribute these differences to the influence of specific political cultures. The literature has primarily compared science–policy arenas of countries with diverging political cultures, whereas comparisons of countries with similar political cultures are rare. The latter is especially true for neo-corporatist cultures. Against this background, we compare the climate science–policy arenas of three neo-corporatist countries, Austria, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Conceptually, we draw on the literature regarding politico-cultural imprints in science–policy arenas. We operationalize national science–policy arenas along four dimensions: the knowledge actors, the organizational formats, the styles of science–policy interactions, and their transparency and visibility. Overall, the three arenas reveal many similarities and much fewer differences. Most similarities correspond to neo-corporatist patterns. However, some similarities consistently deviate from neo-corporatist patterns. Interestingly, almost all differences between the countries match national variations of neo-corporatism. In light of these observations and the specific problem structure of climate policy, we develop research questions to investigate potential explanations for correspondence to and deviation from neo-corporatist patterns.     

Importance of Sediment–Water Interactions in Coeur d’Alene Lake,Idaho, USA: Management Implications

A field study at Coeur dAlene Lake, Idaho, USA, was conducted between October 1998 and August 2001 to examine the potential importance of sediment–water interactions on contaminant transport and to provide the first direct measurements of the benthic flux of dissolved solutes of environmental concern in this lake. Because of potential ecological effects, dissolved zinc and orthophosphate were the solutes of primary interest. Results from deployments of an in situ flux chamber indicated that benthic fluxes of dissolved Zn and orthophosphate were comparable in magnitude to riverine inputs. Tracer analyses and benthic-community metrics provided evidence that solute benthic flux were diffusion-controlled at the flux-chamber deployment sites. That is, effects of biomixing (or bioturbation) and ground-water interactions did not strongly influence benthic flux. Remediation efforts in the river might not produce desired water-quality effects in the lake because imposed shifts in concentration gradients near the sediment–water interface would generate a benthic feedback response. Therefore, development of water-quality models to justify remediation strategies requires consideration of contaminant flux between the water column and underlying sediment in basins that have been affected by long-term (decadal) anthropogenic activities.     

Carbon Stocks and Projections on Public Forestlands in the United States, 1952–2040

Approximately 37% of forestlands in the conterminous United States are publicly owned; they represent a substantial area of potential carbon sequestration in US forests and in forest products. However, large areas of public forestlands traditionally have been less intensively inventoried than privately owned forests. Thus, less information is available about their role as carbon sinks. We present estimates of carbon budgets on public forestlands of the 48 conterminous states, along with a discussion of the assumptions necessary to make such estimates. The forest carbon budget simulation model, FORCARB2, makes estimates for US forests primarily based on inventory data. We discuss methods to develop consistent carbon budget estimates from inventory data at varying levels of detail. Total carbon stored on public forestlands in the conterminous US increased from 16.3 Gt in 1953 to the present total of 19.5 Gt, while area increased from 87.1 million hactares to 92.1 million hactares. At the same time the proportion of carbon on public forestlands relative to all forests increased from 35% to 37%. Projections for the next 40 years depend on scenarios of management influences on growth and harvest.This article was written and prepared by US Government employees on official time, and it is therefore in the public domain and not subject to copyright.     

The Achievement of a Decentralized Water Management Through Stakeholder Participation: An Example from the Drôme River Catchment Area in France (1981–2008)

Different water Acts (e.g., the European Water Framework Directive) and stakeholders involved in aquatic affairs have promoted integrated river basin management over recent decades. However, few studies have provided feedback on these policies. The aim of the current article is to fill this gap by exploring how local newspapers reflect the implementation of a broad public participation within a catchment of France known for its innovation with regard to this domain. The media coverage of a water management strategy in the Drôme watershed from 1981 to 2008 was investigated using a content analysis and a geographic information system. We sought to determine what public participation and decentralized decision-making can be in practice. The results showed that this policy was integrated because of its social perspective, the high number of involved stakeholders, the willingness to handle water issues, and the local scale suitable for participation. We emphasized the prominence of the watershed scale guaranteed by the local water authority. This area was also characterized by compromise, arrangements, and power dynamics on a fine scale. We examined the most politically engaged writings regarding water management, which topics of each group emphasized, and how the groups agreed and disagreed on issues based on their values and context. The temporal pattern of participation implementation was progressive but worked by fits and starts.     

Land-Use Planning in the Chaco Plain (Burruyacú, Argentina). Part 1: Evaluating Land-Use Options to Support Crop Diversification in an Agricultural Frontier Area Using Physical Land Evaluation

The Burruyacú district (Tucumán province, Argentina) is a farming frontier in the western Chaco plain, at the foothills of the sub-Andean mountain ranges, where agricultural land-uses are in conflict with the conservation and management of the Chaco forest. Over the last decades, large-scale farming rapidly expanded due to population pressure, attractive market prices, easy accessibility, favourable annual rainfall, fertile soils, and flexible land tenure. Cropland extension, mainly for heavily mechanized soybean production, has resulted in important reduction of the Chaco forest and also caused physical soil degradation, especially soil compaction, and soil erosion. Land suitability was assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) framework for a set of crops ecologically adapted to the area, including soybean, maize, wheat, sugarcane, citrus, and safflower. Only 16% of the study area has high suitability for most of the selected crops. Major limitations for cropping are low annual rainfall and flooding in the east of the study area, and topography (slope) and flooding in the west. As climate varies over relatively short periods of time, with recurrent cycles of dry and rainy years, land suitability for the selected crops was also assessed under extreme but realistic climatic conditions. Under rainy-year conditions, almost all the study area is unsuitable or marginally suitable for most of the crops. Under dry-year conditions, the study area is unsuitable for all crops, except safflower, which is more drought-resistant. This article proposes alternatives to the mono-cropping of soybean with the aim to help farmers make adequate decisions on land-use and management under deteriorating environmental conditions and for addressing the issue of competitive land uses in the context of land-use planning.