Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid

For projects under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g CO₂/kWh depending on the specification. The weighted operating and build margin reaches 600 g for 2003, while grid average reaches 399 g. Using three-year averages, a combined build and operating margin of 705 g is calculated. We hope that these data facilitate CDM project development in the electricity supply and energy efficiency improvement in Vietnam.     

我国企业参与CDM的风险研究

企业是参与CDM的最基本的单位。企业的参与水平对实现《联合国气候变化框架公约》规定的气候目标具有重要作用。但是企业参与CDM的过程中在获得出售CERs资金的同时,又会承担一定的风险。本文对企业参与CDM的必要性和风险进行了研究,并就如何减少企业参与的风险提出部分建议。     

Linking Russia with the European and global greenhouse gas emissions trading markets: three paths for greening the Russian assigned amount under the Kyoto Protocol

This article examines possibilities for linkage between the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and Russia, with a view to enhancing cooperation on a broader scale than the project-based approaches that have been tested thus far. Three paths for possible EU-Russia linkage are presented by which the Russian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol can be greened in order to stimulate emissions trading: 1. Joint implementation—reductions earned via individual projects in Russia; 2. Greened allowances or green investment schemes; and 3. Linked cap-and-trade systems, in which a Russian domestic emissions trading system would link with the European Union Emissions Trading System. The authors conclude that the third option, emissions trading through linked domestic emissions trading systems, offers the best opportunities at the lowest transaction costs. The authors discuss useful innovative instruments like call options and slip level arrangements on government-to-government and business-to-business levels.

Carbon values,reforestation, and `perverse' incentives under the Kyoto protocol: An empirical analysis

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unintended incentives to excessively harvest existing forests if regenerated forests qualify for carbon (C) credits under the reforestation provision of Article 3.3. This paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and C as priced outputs with data on timber and C growth and yield to different forest settings in the U.S. C prices of $50 per megagram (Mg) – the highest price evaluated– can considerably lengthen forest rotations (40 years or more), raise forest land values (as much as $1,900 per hectare), and sequester more C in the long run (up to 60 percent per acre), relative to the base case of no C compensation. However, if C payments are made for the regenerated stand only, in some situations, it is optimal to immediately harvest an otherwise premature stand at C prices as low as $20/Mg. The strength of perverse incentives to accelerate harvesting of existing forest varies by forest type, region, C price level, and institutional factors relevant to the compensation system. If C compensation were extended to existing stands, as may be possible under Article 3.4 of the KP, the perverse incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would not exist.     

上海开发风电CDM项目的机遇分析

《京都议定书》的正式生效，促进了世界清洁发展机制（cDM）项目的迅速开发。由于上海经济发展迅速，能源消耗较大，有潜力进行CDM项目开发。上海电力是上海能耗较大的行业之一，应该积极进行CDM项目研究。文章分析了国家电力行业开发CDM的主导方向，根据已有方法学的选择原则。上海电力行业首选发展风电CDM项目。探讨了上海发展风力发电项目的潜力和可行性。以辉腾锡勒风电场CDM项目为例，介绍了我国风电CDM项目注册成功的经验。     

云南省清洁发展机制项目潜力调研

清洁发展机制（CDM）的实施能使区域经济获得生态环境保护与经济发展“双赢”。云南尚有很大的CDM项目潜力。结合项目背景和国内外发展状况，通过调查数据整理和案例研究，对促进云南省CDM项目实施提出对策建议。     

高浓度有机废水处理领域的CDM项目分析

清洁发展机制(CDM)项目的开发,既有利于发达国家温室气体减排任务的实现,又有利于发展中国家技术的进步。针对高浓度有机废水的特点,结合河北省石家庄市某酿酒厂废水处理沼气发电项目,对高浓度有机废水处理中的沼气发电CDM项目进行了分析,根据CDM方法学AMS-III-H计算该项目的减排量。结果表明,在CDM机制下该项目年减排量预计为39,378 tCO2,并可以获得可观的资金收益。大大减少了温室气体的排放量,具有良好的社会、经济和环境效益。     

CDM在光伏产业中的应用研究

太阳能是国际社会公认的最理想的替代能源,中国太阳能资源丰富,由于欧美各国市场需求的增大,中国光伏产业取得了快速的发展。但目前中国光伏产业还处于起步阶段,仍面临着资金和技术等难题,而清洁发展机制(CDM)是一种基于市场的灵活履约机制,在中国光伏产业中引入清洁发展机制,不但有利于减少温室气体的排放,而且可大大缓解因资金和技术所带来的问题,并带来一系列环境和社会效益。其次,以锦州市一座10 MW光伏并网电站为例,计算了其年减排量,并对发电收益和CDM项目收益进行了比较及论证。     

云南省清洁发展机制项目潜力调研

清洁发展机制(CDM)的实施能使区域经济获得生态环境保护与经济发展“双赢”。云南尚有很大的CDM项目潜力。结合项目背景和国内外发展状况,通过调查数据整理和案例研究,对促进云南省CDM项目实施提出对策建议。     

在有机废水处理领域内的CDM项目分析

介绍清洁发展机制(CDM)的主要内容及国内外在废水领域的温室气体的排放现状。同时结合国内废水领域的温室气体的排放情况,以《中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报》的数据为基础,分析了CDM项目的经济、能源和环境效益。     

CDM的项目合格性识别分析

随着清洁发展机制(CDM)在全球的迅速发展,在中国也有越来越多的企业投入其中.在开发CDM项目的过程中,项目合格性的识别是第一步也是极其重要的一步,它关系到项目开发一系列步骤的顺利实施,更会对项目注册风险和减排量核证产生重大的影响.在识别项目合格性时需要考虑众多因素,其中最为重要的就是额外性分析,它是CDM项目的典型特征.另外,利益相关者的意见作为单独考虑的重要方面也需要引起足够的重视.     

CDM项目温室气体减排成本的不确定性分析

以清洁发展机制(CDM)为背景,针对计算温室气体排放量和减排成本中存在的不确定性进行了MonteCarlo模拟研究,分析了不确定性变量是如何影响决策变量的.结论是:各类碳排放因子、碳排放量、碳减排成本、减排收益是相互关联而存在连锁影响的,其中的发电碳排放因子和煤炭开采释放的甲烷排放系数是主要的.这为进一步计算或估计存在的风险,从而为参与CDM谈判决策提供重要的决策参考.     

CDM项目大气污染物减排的协同效应研究

为了CDM项目的优化开发和大气污染物的协同控制,就国内CDM项目的污染物减排协同效应进行了分析.在统计其项目年减排量、总投资额以及协同减排系数的基础上,按不同项目类型(零排放的可再生能源、生物质、甲烷废气回收、燃料替代、煤层气回收、水泥原料替代、N2O分解消除以及节能和提高能效)和不同项目所在地(华中、华东、海南、华北、东北、西北以及华南)分析了项目的SO2、NOx和PM2.5协同减排量和投资减排收益.燃料替代、煤层气回收、节能提高能效类项目的投资减排收益高,华中和华东地区的生物质能源项目收益较高,而风电、水电类项目收益较低.     

清洁发展机制框架下贵阳污水热能发展研究

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》确定的三机制之一,充分有效的利用这一机制,对贵阳的可持续发展提出建议。针对污水热能的应用现状,结合贵阳污水厂的处理量,确定了贵阳可利用的污水总量,通过与传统的锅炉、空气源热泵供冷(热)方式比较,得出使用污水源热泵系统潜在的温室气体消减量分别为1484 t/d、96.5 t/d、33.5 t/d。如进一步完善关于污水方面的CDM方法论,污水热能应用在这一领域将会有很大的空间。     

CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

后京都时代AFOLU机制政策选择问题初探

AFoLu机制将农业、林业和其他土地利用整合在一起,将被纳入后京都时代国际气候变化制度中并扮演关键角色。我国需选择基于AFOLU活动的正确的政策工具,充分认识自身的政策基础,在政策选择研究基础上做出最优政策选择,从而在后京都时代既适应和减缓全球气候变化,又有利于我国绿色经济发展。     

Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy?

Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.