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1.
Lasco Rodel D. Pulhin Florencia B. 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2000,5(1):81-97
Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (106 ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (1015 g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(1012 g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets. 相似文献
2.
Veronika Dornburg Gregg Marland 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):211-217
Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary
storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement
begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis
and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change,
a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better
and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.
相似文献
Gregg Marland (Corresponding author)Email: |
3.
Development of regional climate mitigation baseline for a dominant agro-ecological zone of Karnataka,India 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
P. Sudha D. Subhashree H. Khan G. T. Hedge I. K. Murthy V. Shreedhara N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1051-1075
Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest and land use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessing
additionality of the project. There are two approaches for setting baselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline.
This paper presents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available for mitigation, for developing a regional baseline,
transaction cost involved and a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The study showed that it is possible
to estimate the potential land and its suitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects, using existing
maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southern India. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regional
baseline, namely: (i) identification of likely baseline options for land use, (ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use
change, and (iii) quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showed that carbon stock estimates made
for wastelands and fallow lands for project-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. The ratio of wasteland
Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is 1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is 0.97.
The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regional baseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a
project-specific baseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness
of adopting regional baseline for forestry sector mitigation projects.
相似文献
N. H. RavindranathEmail: |
4.
Manuel R. Guariguata Jonathan P. Cornelius Bruno Locatelli Claudio Forner G. Arturo Sánchez-Azofeifa 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(8):793-808
The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis
has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical
forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global
climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate
change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may
be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic
adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers
additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration
in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort
with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent
communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance
on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt
management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation
into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change
considerations into tropical forestry. 相似文献
5.
Dhazn Gillig Bruce A. McCarl Ronald D. Sands 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2004,9(3):241-259
An econometrically estimated family ofresponse functions is developed forcharacterizing potential responses togreenhouse gas mitigation policies by theagriculture and forestry sectors in theU.S. The response functions are estimatedbased on results of anagricultural/forestry sector model. Theyprovide estimates of sequestration andemission reductions in forestry andagriculture along with levels of sectoralproduction, prices, welfare, andenvironmental attributes given a carbonprice, levels of demand for agriculturalgoods, and the energy price. Sixalternative mitigation policiesrepresenting types of greenhouse gasoffsets allowed are considered. Resultsindicate that the largest quantity ofgreenhouse gas offset consistently appearswith the mitigation policy that pays forall opportunities. Restricting carbonpayments (emission tax or sequestrationsubsidy) only to aff/deforestation or onlyto agricultural sequestration substantiallyreduces potential mitigation. Highercarbon prices lead to more sequestration,less emissions, reduced consumer and totalwelfare, improved environmental indicatorsand increased producer welfare. 相似文献
6.
Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Rodel D. Lasco Florencia B. Pulhin Renezita F. Sales 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1189-1211
The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in
the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed
for a carbon sequestration project.
The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development.
At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M.
The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in
the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of
the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon
lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption
scenario. 相似文献
7.
8.
《Environmental Science & Policy》2007,10(4):283-294
This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change. 相似文献
9.
This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered. 相似文献
10.
Community and farm forestry climate mitigation projects: case studies from Uttaranchal,India 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
N. Hooda M. Gera K. Andrasko J. Sathaye M. K. Gupta H. B. Vasistha M. Chandran S. S. Rassaily 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1099-1130
The methodologies for forest mitigation projects still present challenges to project developers for fulfillment of criteria
within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or other such mechanisms for the purpose of earning carbon credits. This paper
systematically approaches the process of establishing carbon (C) stocks for baseline (BSL) and mitigation scenario (MSL) for
two case studies i.e., community and farm forestry projects in Uttaranchal, India. The analysis of various interventions shows that both projects present high carbon mitigation
potential. However, the C reversibility risk is lower in long-rotation pine and mixed species plantation on community lands.
The project is financially viable though not highly lucrative but the carbon mitigation potential in this ‘restoration of
degraded lands’ type of project is immense provided challenges in the initial phase are adequately overcome. C revenue is
an essential driver for investors in community projects. The short-rotation timber species such as Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus), Poplar (Populus) have high internal rates of return (IRR) and high carbon benefit reversibility potential due to fluctuations in market prices
of commodities produced. The land holdings are small and bundling is desired for projects to achieve economies of scale. The
methodological concerns such as sampling intensities, monitoring methodologies, sharing of benefits with communities and bundling
arrangements for projects need further research to make these projects viable. 相似文献
11.
Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stephen R.J. 《Environmental Science & Policy》2005,8(6):637
The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples’ awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility. 相似文献
12.
This paper examines the energy and carbon balance of two residential house alternatives; a typical wood frame home using more conventional materials (brick cladding, vinyl windows, asphalt shingles, and fibreglass insulation) and a similar wood frame house that also maximizes wood use throughout (cedar shingles and siding, wood windows, and cellulose insulation) in place of the more typical materials used – a wood-intensive house. Carbon emission and fossil fuel consumption balances were established for the two homes based on the cumulative total of three subsystems: (1) forest harvesting and regeneration; (2) cradle-to-gate product manufacturing, construction, and replacement effects over a 100-year service life; and (3) end-of-life effects – landfilling with methane capture and combustion or recovery of biomass for energy production.The net carbon balance of the wood-intensive house showed a complete offset of the manufacturing emissions by the credit given to the system for forest re-growth. Including landfill methane emissions, the wood-intensive life cycle yielded 20 tons of CO2e emissions compared to 72 tons for the typical house. The wood-intensive home's life cycle also consumed only 45% of the fossil fuels used in the typical house.Diverting wood materials from the landfill at the end of life improved the life cycle balances of both the typical and wood-intensive houses. The carbon balance of the wood-intensive house was 5.2 tons of CO2e permanently removed from the atmosphere (a net carbon sink) as compared to 63.4 of total CO2e emissions for the typical house. Substitution of wood fuel for natural gas and coal in electricity production led to a net energy balance of the wood-intensive house that was nearly neutral, 87.1 GJ energy use, 88% lower than the scenario in which the materials were landfilled.Allocating biomass generation and carbon sequestration in the forest on an economic basis as opposed to a mass basis significantly improves the life cycle balances of both houses. Employing an economic allocation method to the forest leads to 3–5 times greater carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution attributable to the house, which is doubled in forestry regimes that remove stumps and slash as fuel. Thus, wood use has the potential to create a significantly negative carbon footprint for a house up to the point of occupancy and even offset a portion of heating and cooling energy use and carbon emissions; the wood-intensive house is energy and carbon neutral for 34–68 years in Ottawa and has the potential to be a net carbon sink and energy producer in a more temperate climate like San Francisco. 相似文献
13.
Meenakshi Kaul G. M. J. Mohren V. K. Dadhwal 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(4):395-409
Short rotation bioenergy crops for energy production are considered an effective means to mitigate the greenhouse effect,
mainly due to their ability to substitute fossil fuels. Alternatively, carbon can be sequestered and stored in the living
biomass. This paper compares the two land use categories (forest land and non-forest land) for two management practices (short
rotation vs. long rotation) to study mitigation potential of afforestation and fossil fuel substitution as compared to carbon
storage. Significant carbon benefit can be obtained in the long run from using lands for growing short rotation energy crops
and substituting fossil fuels by the biomass thus produced, as opposed to sequestering carbon in the biomass of the trees.
When growth rates are high and harvest is used in a sustainable manner (i.e., replanting after every harvest), the opportunities
for net carbon reductions appear to be fossil fuel substitution, rather than storage in ecosystem biomass. Our results suggest
that at year 100 a total of 216 Mg C ha−1 is sequestered for afforestation/reforestation using long rotation sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn.f) species, as opposed to offset of 412 Mg C ha−1 for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution for short rotation poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh) plantations. The bioenergy option results in a continuous stream of about 3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 of carbon benefits per year on forest land and 4 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 on non-forest land. Earlier studies have shown that in India waste land availability for establishing energy plantations
is in the range of 9.6 to 36.5 Mha. Thus, using the 758 Tg biomass per year generated from 9.6 Mha waste land gives a mitigation
potential in the range of 227 to 303 Tg C per year for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution from poplar plantation
for substituting coal based power generation. Depending upon the land availability for plantation, the potential for energy
generation is in the range of 11,370 PJ, possibly amounting to a bioenergy supply of 43% of the total projected energy consumption
in 2015. Further studies are needed to estimate the mitigation potential of other species with different productivities for
overall estimation of the economic feasibility and social acceptability in a tropical country like India. 相似文献
14.
Klaus Eisenack Rebecca Stecker Diana Reckien Esther Hoffmann 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2012,17(5):451-469
This paper identifies the literature that deals with adaptation to climate change in the transport sector. It presents a systematic
review of the adaptations suggested in the literature. Although it is frequently claimed that this socially and economically
important sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change, there is comparatively little research into its adaptation.
The 63 sources we found are analysed following an action framework of adaptation. This distinguishes different adaptational
functions and means of adaptation. By an open coding procedure, a total of 245 adaptations are found and classified. The paper
shows a broad diversity of interdependent actors to be relevant—ranging from transportation providers to public and private
actors and households. Crucial actors are hybrid in terms of being public or private. A substantial share of the identified
adaptations follows a top-down adaptation policy pattern where a public or hybrid operator initiates action that affects private
actors. Most of the exceptions from this pattern are technical or engineering measures. Identified adaptations mostly require
institutional means, followed by technical means, and knowledge. Generally, knowledge on adapting transport to climate change
is still in a stage of infancy. The existing literature either focuses on overly general adaptations, or on detailed technical
measures. Further research is needed on the actual implementation of adaptation, and on more precise institutional instruments
that fill the gap between too vague and too site-specific adaptations. 相似文献
15.
Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives
To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches. 相似文献
16.
Robert J. Zomer Antonio Trabucco Louis V. Verchot Bart Muys 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):219-239
Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude
to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown cover which can
be set between 10 and 30%. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation
and reforestation activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM-AR). In this paper, we present an analysis of the
regional differences in land availability for CDM-AR projects. We then examine how the choice of a high or low threshold value
for crown cover will affect the area available for CDM activities and how the limitations imposed by this element of the definition
compares to other factors that are likely to limit CDM activities. Results represent a global analysis that included all countries
not included in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol, and examined the effect on land availability of a range of crown cover thresholds
ranging from 10–30%. Of the 140 Non-Annex One countries, 107 countries were found to have a potential for CDM-AR projects.
Asia had the largest amount of combined area suitable for CDM-AR at the 10% crown cover threshold level. However, at 30%,
South America had the greatest amount of land available, and a large change in available land area, which increased by almost
five times compared to what was available at the 10% threshold. The area available in Africa increased by a factor of 5.5.
Central America showed the largest increase, to almost 10 times more at the 30% threshold. By contrast, within Asia, the area
increase was comparatively less, but still the area nearly doubled. Globally, a low threshold of 10% crown cover excluded
almost 2/3 of the land identified that was eligible at 30%, over 5 million km2. The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was
available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. Protected areas account for 10–20% of the CDM-AR
eligible area in most countries. 相似文献
17.
The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roger N. Jones Paul Dettmann Geoff Park Maureen Rogers Terry White 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):685-712
This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with
the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments.
Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led
to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change
in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management
options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they
each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential
climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by
reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes
of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of
the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with
increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative
capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases,
a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not
share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and
location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards.
This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity.
Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks
by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia,
adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several
related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures
affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have
to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks,
there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant
gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of
these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded)
with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms. 相似文献
18.
Managing climate change risks in New York City’s water system: assessment and adaptation planning 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Cynthia Rosenzweig David C. Major Kate Demong Christina Stanton Radley Horton Melissa Stults 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(8):1391-1409
Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning
for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department
of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater
treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university
collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential
risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency
and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies
to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the
long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure.
Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed
by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and
other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application
for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations. 相似文献
19.
Human settlement and regional development in the context of climate change: a spatial analysis of low elevation coastal zones in China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jianli Liu Jiahong Wen Youqin Huang Minqi Shi Qingjie Meng Jinhong Ding Hui Xu 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2015,20(4):527-546
20.
Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land-climate systems to assess how changes in electricity and land use, induced by climate change mitigation, impact on water demand under alternative socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and water policy assumptions (irrigation of bioenergy crops, cooling technologies for electricity generation). The impacts of climate change mitigation on cumulated global water demand across the century are highly uncertain, and depending on socioeconomic and water policy conditions, they range from a reduction of 15,000 km3 to an increase of more than 160,000 km3. The impact of irrigation of bioenergy crops is the most prominent factor, leading to significantly higher water requirements under climate change mitigation if bioenergy crops are irrigated. Differences in socioeconomic drivers and fossil fuel availability result in significant differences in electricity and bioenergy demands, in the associated electricity and primary energy mixes, and consequently in water demand. Economic affluence and abundance of fossil fuels aggravate pressures on water resources due to higher energy demand and greater deployment of water intensive technologies such as bioenergy and nuclear power. The evolution of future cooling systems is also identified as an important determinant of electricity water demand. Climate policy can result in a reduction of water demand if combined with policies on irrigation of bioenergy, and the deployment of non-water-intensive electricity sources and cooling types. 相似文献