Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines.     

北极苔原和森林地区的稳定性及脆弱性与社会和环境变化

北极苔原带和北方森林(北部地区)因其分布广阔并远离农业土地利用变化及工业发展的影响,而一度被认为是地球上最后的净土.但如今这些地区如同地球上任何别的地区一样,也正经受着环境和社会变化的影响.本文总结了北部地区在全球系统中所起的作用,并提出方案以便对导致该地区对社会和环境变化敏感的那些因子进行评价.     

Life on the Edge: Vulnerability and Adaptation of African Ecosystems to Global Climate Change

Donor countriesare providing financial and technicalsupport for global climate change countrystudies to help African nations meet theirreporting needs under the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Technical assistance to completevulnerability and adaptation assessmentsincludes training of analysts, sharing ofcontemporary tools (e.g. simulationmodels), data and assessment techniques,information-sharing workshops and aninternational exchange programme foranalysts. This chapter summarizes 14African country studies (Botswana, Côted'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia,Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, SouthAfrica, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia andZimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities toglobal climate change and identifyingadaptation options. The analysis revealedthat the participating African countriesare vulnerable to global climate change inmore than one of the followingsocio-economic sectors: coastal resources,agriculture, grasslands and livestock,water resources, forests, wildlife, andhuman health. This vulnerability isexacerbated by widespread poverty,recurrent droughts, inequitable landdistribution, environmental degradation,natural resource mismanagement anddependence on rain-fed agriculture. Arange of practical adaptation options wereidentified in key socio-economic sectors ofthe African nations analysed. However,underdeveloped human and institutionalcapacity, as well as the absence ofadequate infrastructure, renders manytraditional coping strategies (rooted inpolitical and economic stability)ineffective or insufficient. FutureAfrican country studies should be moreclosely coordinated with development ofnational climate change action plans     

四川单季稻产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

基于1981—2012年25个四川气象台站气象观测数据和单季稻生产数据,建立单季稻产量变化和各气候要素变化的一元线性和逐步回归方程,探讨四川单季稻产量对单个气候要素及气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性,为科学开展适应行动提供基础信息。结果表明：四川单季稻产量随气温上升1 ℃、日较差升高1 ℃、降水量下降100 mm、辐射量下降100 MJ/m²发生了相应反应,部分地区的单季稻产量表现为脆弱,气温升高导致单季稻产量脆弱的地区最多,日较差次之,太阳辐射和降水量偏少;单季稻产量对抽穗至成熟期的气温升高和辐射下降最敏感,而对移栽至分蘖期的日较差升高最敏感。受到6种气候要素变化的综合影响,各站点单季稻产量对气候变化均表现为敏感,其中50%的地区表现为脆弱;单季稻产量对移栽至分蘖期和抽穗至成熟期的气候变化表现最敏感。不同地区、不同生育期内气候变化对单季稻产量的影响存在差异,因此,需要因地制宜地解决气候变化带来的不利影响,同时抓住水稻关键生育期有利的气候资源,有效地保障四川水稻的安全生产。     

四川冬小麦产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

论文以四川冬小麦种植区1981—2012年88个县的气象观测数据和冬小麦生产数据为基础,采用一元线性回归和逐步回归等方法,评价四川冬小麦产量对单个气候因子及气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性。结果显示：假设冬小麦生育期内平均气温和日较差升高1 ℃、降水量下降100 mm、辐射量下降100 MJ/m²,冬小麦的产量随之发生变化,全生育期降水量下降导致产量敏感的面积最大,占整个研究区域播种总面积的6.5%;而辐射量下降使产量脆弱的面积最大,为2.4%。从各个生育阶段来看,研究区域内冬小麦产量对播种到拔节期辐射量下降表现为敏感和脆弱的面积比例最大,分别占9.4%和7.9%。受到4种气候因子变化的综合影响,产量对冬小麦生育期内气候变化表现为敏感的面积占播种总面积的40.0%,在7个冬麦区均有分布,产量变化为-23.0%~9.5%;产量脆弱的面积占14.0%,主要分布在川西北高原大部及盆西、盆南和川西南的部分区域。     

城市地区气候变化脆弱性与对策研究进展

本文基于国内外脆弱性研究工作,对气候变化脆弱性内涵、城市地区气候变化脆弱性成因以及应对气候变化的举措等方面已经展开的研究工作进行了归纳与总结,认为应对气候变化已经成为城市地区当务之急所需要完成的任务是,积极主动的适应气候变化的影响。     

系统响应气候变化脆弱性定量评价国内研究综述

定量评价气候变化脆弱性是人类采取适应性措施应对全球气候变化,以减少其不利影响的关键和基础。在对气候变化脆弱性有关概念进行讨论,及对国际、国内系统响应气候变化脆弱性评价研究回顾的基础上,对中国近十几来有关气候变化脆弱性定量评价研究的成果从三个方面进行了较为系统的总结：气候情景的模拟预测、系统变化过程的模拟、脆弱性指标的选取及脆弱性层次的划分。最后,从评价对象、技术手段、指标体系、时间尺度等方面探讨了该领域研究的不足及发展方向。     

东北地区湿地的水文景观分类及其对气候变化的脆弱性

湿地对气候变化的脆弱性取决于湿地在水文景观中所处的位置.笔者简单介绍了水文景观的基本理论,从水文景观视角对东北地区的典型湿地进行了分类,并依据水文景观特征将东北地区的湿地所发育的景观分为冰蚀地貌、山地沟谷、河口三角洲、滨海低洼地、河漫滩、阶地洼地和古河道洼地、山前洼地、湖泊及其湖泊边缘洼地和半干旱、半湿润平原低湿洼地等类型,并将发育于各类景观中的湿地对气候变化的脆弱性划分出低度脆弱性、低-中度脆弱性、中-高度脆弱性、高度脆弱性和极度脆弱性.      

Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO₂ and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO₂-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO₂ on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO₂-driven warmer climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

西双版纳生物多样性廊道区气候变化脆弱性评价研究

以IPCC（政府间气候变化专业委员会）对生态系统气候脆弱性定义为理论基础,以西双版纳勐腊一尚勇保护区廊道为研究区域,通过建立生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系,对廊道从20世纪70年代到现在和未来变化做了评估,初步识别出不同历史时期研究区的生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性特征,并提出应对气候变化的对策建议。     

A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area

The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment. Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented for the Larch area.     

中国气候状况及应对气候变化方案和措施

由于受人类活动和自然因素的综合影响,自20世纪50年代以来,中国年平均气温已升高了0.68℃,其中黄河以北地区平均升高了0.8℃～1.2℃,黄河以南地区平均下降了0.2℃～0.8℃;而北方年降水量减少,南方却增加,南涝北旱加剧。经模拟预测后认为,中国从1987年开始的气候变暖将持续到2015年,将于2016年转入低温期,2039年又将转入高温期。到2020年全国年平均气温将比20世纪50年代升高1.68℃,西北地区平均升高2.22℃;南方年平均降水量增加28 mm,北方变化不大;2030年海平面将升高5.3 cm～14.2 cm,气候将向暖、干的趋势发展。因此中国发布《中国应对气候变化国家方案》及对此采取综合对策。     

Adapting to Climate Change in Africa

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.     

A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper.     

发展与气候变化

气候变化不仅是一个影响世界各国的全球性问题,它还对许多中低收入国家的发展进程构成颠覆甚至倒退的威胁.在支持发展中国家经济增长重点的同时,应对减缓和适应气候变化的双重挑战,是国际社会面临的一项重大考验.     

The Social Costs of Climate Change: The IPCC Second Assessment Report and Beyond

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 × CO₂). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国应对气候变化的绿色机遇

受到"排挤"的德班会议联合国气候大会即将在南非港口城市德班召开。但是,当前世界经济尚未从2008年的金融危机的阴影中走出来,且又遭到经济衰退的二次探底的冲击。美国总统大选在即但失业率居高不下、经济增长乏力;欧盟财政危机四伏、欧元区面临新的挑战;日本     

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological Issues

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science.     

气候变化、能源与环境

<正>综述过去30年来,中国经济的飞速发展使得数以亿计的人们摆脱了贫困,在世界发展史上写下了前所未有的一页,也为全球经济发展创造了巨大的动力。然而,伴随着经济上的成功,中国也付出了巨大的代价,出现了环境恶化、能源安全问题、资源过度消耗等影响社会可持