Spatio-Temporal Variations of Sulphur Dioxide Patterns with Wind Conditions in Central Taiwan

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) is one of the main atmospheric pollutants in central Taiwan. This article analyses the SO₂ concentration seasonal variations and spatial distribution using data obtained from ten air quality monitoring stations and the Taiwan Weather Bureau. It reveals that SO₂ concentration is high in winter and low in summer and that high concentration centers are located south of the Taichung coal-fired power plant, the main source of SO₂ emissions in the region.The location of high concentration centers changeswith different prevailing winds. SO₂ variations due towind direction are not unique. During short periods,when meteorological conditions are constant, variationin the pollution sources cause variations in thespatial distribution. This has been deduced byappreciation of Intervention analysis to time seriesof hourly data.     

Exposure estimates in assessing helath effects of air pollution

Air pollution has been associated with adverse health effects. Difficulties in interpreting studies of health effects of exposure to air pollution arise in estimating exposure. Until recently, studies of effects of air pollution have relied on pollution exposure measurements obtained from fixed location air pollution stations monitoring outside air (to evaluate compliance with air quality standards, rather than to examine population exposure). However, recent evidence suggests that there are substantial differences between air pollution levels measured at such sites and levels to which people are actually exposed, i.e. personal exposure. The present study examines effects of ambient urban air pollution on persons suffering from asthma, healthy non-asthmatic subjects and school children (in 2 Canadian cities, Toronto and Hamilton). Air pollution exposure is being assessed by data obtained from: (1) conventional abatement oriented fixed location air pollution monitoring stations, (2) an extensive population oriented network, (3) inside and (4) outside structures (homes and schools) as well as (5) personal air pollution samplers. The data indicate variability in these different estimates of exposure which have implications on health effects assessment.     

Performances and application of a passive sampling method for the simultaneous determination of nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide in ambient air

The performances and applicability of a diffusion tubesampler for the simultaneous measurements of NO₂ andSO₂ in ambient air were evaluated. SO₂ andNO₂are collected by the passive sampler using triethanolamine astrapping agent and are determined as sulphate and nitrite withion chromatography. The detection limit (2.3 g m^-3 ofNO₂ and 4.2 g m^-3 of SO₂ for two weekssampling) is adequate for the determination of concentrationsin urban and industrial areas. Precision of the method as RSDis in mean 5% for NO₂ and 12% for SO₂ at theconcentration levels in urban areas. Calibration of the methodwas performed in the field conditions by comparison between theresponses of sampler and the concentrations measured by thecontinuous monitors. High degree of linearity (correlationcoefficients > 0.8) is found between the passive sampler tubeand the continuous monitor data for both NO₂ and SO₂.To reduce the wind velocity influence on passive sampling ofdiffusion tubes, a protective shelter was tested in this study.The overall uncertainty of one measure for the optimised methodis estimated at 5 g m^-3 for NO₂ and 6g m^-3 for SO₂. Suitability of this passivesampling method for air pollution monitoring in urban areas wasdemonstrated by the results shown in this paper on a campaigncarried out in the French agglomeration.     

Monitoring the results of Canada/U.S.A acid rain control programs: some lake responses

Aquatic acidification by deposition of airborne pollutants emerged as an environmental issue in southeastern Canada during the 1970s. Drawing information from the extensive research and monitoring programs, a sequence of issue assessments demonstrated the necessity of reducing the anthropogenic emissions of acidifying pollutants, particularly sulphur dioxide (SO₂). The 1991 Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement (AQA) was negotiated to reduce North American SO₂ emissions by 40% relative to 1980 levels by 2010, and at present, both countries have reduced emissions beyond their AQA commitment. In response to reduced SO₂ emissions, atmospheric deposition of sulphate (SO₄ ^2–) and SO₄ ^2– concentrations in many lakes have declined, particularly in south-central Ontario and southern Québec. Sulphate deposition still exceeds aquatic critical loads throughout southeastern Canada however. Increasing pH or alkalinity (commonly deemed recovery) has been observed in only some lakes. Several biogeochemical factors have intervened to modify the lake chemistry response to reduced SO₄ ^2– input, notably release of stored SO₄ ^2– from wetlands following periods of drought and reduction in the export of base cations from terrestrial soils. Three examples from Ontario are presented to illustrate these responses. Significant increases in pH and alkalinity have been observed in many lakes in the Sudbury area of Ontario due to the large reductions in local SO₂ emissions; early-stage biological recovery is evident in these lakes. An integrated assessment model predicts that AQA emission reductions will not be sufficient to promote widespread chemical or biological recovery of Canadian lakes. Monitoring and modeling are mutually supporting assessment activities and both must continue.     

Methane in ocean waters: Concentration and carbon isotope variability at East Pacific Rise and in the Arabian Sea

Methane concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of water samples from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°S and the Arabian Sea (24°N, 65°E) have been determined. EPR surface water is in equilibrium (ca. 50 nl/L and –50<¹³CH₄<–46) with atmospheric methane. Deep background water has the signature of the remaining fraction of atmospheric methane partially oxidized in the water column by bacteria. Bottom near, hydrothermally influenced vent methane (>100nl/L and –30<¹³CH₄<–22) is detectable only close to the seep site. There is no input of hydrothermal methane into the atmosphere. EPR water is considered to be rather a sink than a source of atmospheric methane. Surface waters of the Arabian Sea are enriched in methane relative to the atmosphere (source for atmospheric methane). Carbon isotope ratios point to a bacterial origin of methane (¹³CH₄<–55) that is generated in the surface waters. Concentration changes and variations of carbon isotope ratios also suggest that methane seeping from the sea floor sediments of the Arabian Sea is oxidized by bacterial activity and does not reach the atmosphere.     

Soil-Water Partitioning and Desorption Hysteresis of Volatile Organic Compounds from a Louisiana Superfund Site Soil

The adsorption and desorption of three volatile organic compounds (1,2- dichloroethane, 1,1,2- trichloroethane and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane) from a previously uncontaminated clayey soil sample from a Superfund site in North Baton Rouge,Louisiana was studied. In the linear range of the adsorption isotherm, the partition constants were not affected by the presence of the co-solutes. The adsorption isotherms over a wide concentration range on the soil followed the nonlinearFreundlich isotherm. The desorption of the compounds showedsignificant hysteresis at all concentrations studied. Approximately 20 to 70% of the adsorbed mass of organic compounds resisted the desorption even after five months ofsuccessive desorption steps. The desorption of four compounds(1,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,2-trichloroethane, 1,4-dichlorobenzeneand hexachlorobutadiene) from a contaminated soil sample fromthe same site was also studied. The aqueous concentration declined as the successive desorption steps progressed. For hexachlorobutediene the desorption can be visualized as occurring in two stages. The first stage involved a loosely bound or reversible fraction and the second stage involveda tightly bound or resistant fraction.     

Heavy metal concentration in the moss Pleurozium schreberi in the Niepołomice Forest,Poland: changes during 20 years

The Niepoomice Forest is a large forestcomplex (110 km²) situated in southern Poland 10 to 30 kmto the east of the urban industrial Kraków agglomeration andsteelworks, which was built up on the outskirts of the city in1950. Due to prevailing westerly winds, the forest is affectedby pollutants emitted by both the steelworks and the city. Thelevel of heavy metal contamination in the Niepoomice Forestwas described using a sensitive bioindicator – the moss Pleurozium schreberi. Mean concentrations of metals in mosscollected in the Niepoomice Forest were Cd – 0.71, Cr – 2.4,Cu – 8.6, Fe – 673, Pb – 12.7, and Zn – 61 mg/kg.Concentrations of heavy metals in moss in the NiepoomiceForest decreased in time. As compared with the relatively cleanarea in north-eastern Poland (Puszcza Biaowieska), the concentration of Fe was 2–9 fold and Pb 4–6 fold higher in theNiepoomice Forest in 1975, while in 1998 4 fold and 2 fold,respectively. In both 1975 and 1998 the most polluted by heavymetals was the western part of the Niepoomice Forest (closestto the pollution sources) and the area along the roads insidethe forest complex.     

Comparative Studies on the Usefulness of Seven Ecological Indices for the Marine Coastal Monitoring Close to the Shore on the Swedish East Coast

The simultaneous behaviour of seven ecological indices(Hurlberts, Margalefs, Menhinicks, Shannons,species number, Jaccards and saprobic index) wasstudied based on phytoplankton data close to the shoreon the East coast of Sweden during the summer 1998.The sampling stations had a similar eutrophicationlevel and were located in bays. Standard phytoplanktondatabases were used in calculating the indices, whichwere later compared using cluster analysis.Hurlberts, Margalefs, Menhinicks, Shannons andspecies number indices, as measure of communitydiversity, produced similar trends which oftendiffered from those based on Jaccards index ofsimilarity. However, the simultaneous use of theseindices was found meaningful as a possible part of themonitoring close to the shore. The application of asaprobic index lead to erroneous conclusions in thestudied case.     

Routine Measurement of Dissolved Inorganic 15N in Precipitation and Streamwater

The difficulty of measuring 15N in dilute solutions has limited the potential of ecosystem labeling experiments and model comparisons. By concentrating the N from large (up to 20 L) water samples on ion-exchange resin columns, we obtained enough N for accurate and reproducible 15N measurement using the Teflon tape diffusion method. Analysis of standards demonstrated >95% recovery of inorganic N from samples, and 15N values comparable to those obtained using standard distillation methods. The value of the blank at our laboratory was 0.16 moles N. Analytical precision was within 2 15N when samples of streamwater from the Bear Brook Watersheds (1800 eq · ha-1 · yr-1 N addition at 192 15N) were kept frozen until analysis. The analytical process is lengthy, but once set up can easily be performed for large numbers of samples.     

Global ocean monitoring for the World Climate Research Programme

Oceanic research and modelling for the World Climate Research Program will utilize several recently-developed instruments and measuring techniques as well as well-tested, long-used instruments. Ocean-scanning satellites will map the component of the ocean-surface topography related to ocean currents and mesoscale eddies and to fluctuating water volumes caused by ocean warming and cooling. Other satellite instruments will measure the direction and magnitude of wind stress on the sea surface, surface water temperatures, the distribution of chlorophyll and other photosynthetic pigments, the characteristics of internal waves, and possible precipitation over the ocean. Networks of acoustic transponders will obtain a three-dimensional picture of the distribution of temperature from the surface down to mid-depth and of long-term changes in temperature at depth. Ocean research vessels will determine the distribution and fate of geochemical tracers and will also make high-precision, deep hydrographic casts. Ships of opportunity, using expendable instruments, will measure temperature, salinity and currents in the upper water layers. Drifting and anchored buoys will also measure these properties as well as those of the air above the sea surface. Tide gauges installed on islands and exposed coastal locations will measure variations in monthly and shorter-period mean sea level. These tide gauges will provide ground truth for the satellite maps of sea-surface topography, and will also determine variations in ocean currents and temperature.All these instruments will be used in several major programs, the most ambitious of which is the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) designed to obtain global measurements of major currents throughout the world ocean, greater understanding of the transformation of water masses, and the role of advective, convective, and turbulent processes in exchange of properties between surface and deep-ocean layers.A five- to ten-year experiment—Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA)—will be undertaken to sudy the sequence of events of air-sea interactions in the tropical oceans and their impact on climatic variations on land—for example, variations in the strength and location of the Indian Ocean monsoon, droughts in low latitudes, and climatic fluctuations in temperate latitudes.Experimental and continuing time series will be taken at fixed locations to obtain a better picture of the magnitude and causes of ocean climate variability. National and multinational systematic repeated measurements along selected ocean transects or in specific ocean areas will be taken to determine oceanic variability and teleconnections between oceanic and atmospheric processes. Examples are the long Japanese section along the meridian of 137° E and the Sections program of the USSR and several other countries in Energy-Active zones.The results from this wide range of observations and experiments will be used to guide and define mathematical models of the ocean circulation and its interactions with the atmosphere.It can be shown that biogeochemical processes in the ocean play an important role in determining the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and thus in causing long-term climatic changes. Variations in the biological productivity of sub-surface waters cause variations in the effectveness of the biological pump which carries organic carbon down into deeper waters where it is oxidized. Studies of ice cores from 20 000 to 30 000 yr before the present indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide varied by a factor of 2 within times of the order of 100 yr, and these variations were accompanied by large excursions in atmospheric temperature. Thus, ocean climatic monitoring must take into account measurements of both biological and physical variations in the ocean.     

The effect of atmospheric pollution on α-glycerophosphate dehydrogenase activity in the satin moth (Leucoma salicis (L.))

The purpose of this study was to investigate how various combinations of atmospheric pollutants may affect -GPDH activity in the satin moth. Enzyme activity was measured in crude larva and pupa as well as in hoogenates from the fat body and thoracic muscles of adults. The insects were divided into five groups and treated with dust (containing heavy metals) and gaseous pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) in different concentrations. Specific activity of -GPDH was the highest in thoracic muscles of adult satin moth and was significantly higher in males, regardless of their origin. Low concentration of SO₂ caused stimulation of enzyme activity but simultaneous action of SO₂, NO_x and heavy metal containing dust with accompanied acid precipitation caused inhibition of -GPDH activity, probably as the result of sulphite bounds with pyridine and flavin nucleotides.     

Biological effect-test systems for the early recognition of unexpected environmental changes

Pre-marketing assessments of chemicals regarding their potential environmental impacts contain numerous sources of error and uncertainties. Practices and methods for the evaluation of environmental risks posed by individual pre-selected agents seem unsuitable for detecting unexpected trends in the environment. This is particularly so in view of the multitude of anthropogenic assaults on the environment and their complex interactions. Therefore, requirements for symptom-oriented biological effect-test systems, bioprobes, capable of reacting sensitively to environmental changes of unknown origin were conceived. Bioprobes designed to detect biological effects should respond to a broad spectrum of anthropogenic chemicals. They are environmental quality measuring devices consisting of cultivated organisms, cells, organelles or biomolecules in combination with recording units. In contrast to traditional biotests for chemical testing, bioprobes are deliberately exposed to selected segments of the environment for certain periods of time. During and after such exposures, changes of defined biological states or process rates—observation elements—are registered.     

Air pollution and diseases of the respiratory tracts in pre-school children: A transfer function model

The purpose of the present statistical analysis was the assessment of the relation between time series of environmental factors and of frequencies of diseases of the respiratory system in pre-school children. During about one year, daily measurements of air pollutants and climatic variables were taken. During the same period of time two series of medical data were collected: (i) The daily relative number of pre-school children, exhibiting diseases of the respiratory tracts who either came to the outpatients' clinic of the children's hospital or were reported by paediatricians in Basle (ENTRIES). (ii) The daily relative frequency of symptoms of the respiratory tracts observed in a group of randomly selected pre-school children (SYMPTOMS).By means of transfer function models the relation between the two target variables and the explaining variables was analysed. Several practical problems did arise: Choice of the appropriate transformation of the different series, interpretation of the crosscorrelation function using different methods of prewhitening, time splitting and nonstationarity of the crosscorrelation structure. In particular, it was found that after prewhitening the crosscorrelation function between the explanatory series SO₂ and the response series SYMPTOMS changes with time. While during the winter period an instantaneous relation between these two series (and to a lesser extent between NO₂ and SYMPTOMS) was identified, no such relation was found for the other seasons.     

The Quality of Water in the Buško Blato Reservoir

The article presents the results of chemical andmicrobiological measurements of the water quality in theBuko Blato reservoir, the largest in Europe, in the period 1989 to 1998.The aim was to observe possiblechanges in water quality during the past decade and itsinfluence on the downstream section of the Cetina River andits numerous tributaries and reservoirs, where there are twolarge regional water supply systems. This reservoir wasbuilt in order to exploit the high hydro-electric potentialof small streamflows in the karst fields of south-westernBosnia. It has strongly influenced the hydrologicconditions of the downstream section of the Cetina River.Buko Blato is a relatively shallow reservoir with the meandepth of 5 m. It covers an area of 57 km². The waterexchange in the reservoir is slow, occurring from one toseveral years. When the water inflow exceeds the hydroelectric plant demands the excess water is delivered by a reversible channel and pre-pumped into the Buko Blato reservoir. The total and carbonate water hardness in thereservoir is lower than in the Cetina River and in typicalkarst streamflows, since the water in this reservoir comesmainly from surface sources including numerous springs withhigh capacity oscillations, torrents and rainfall.Measurements, carried out during the past years, showed asignificant increase in nitrate content as well as in thecoli bacteria and a less significant increase in totalphosphorus content. The water quality was evaluated asmezotrophic according to the total phosphorus content basedon the Carlson index of trophic level, a lower quality thanin the Perua reservoir, upstream on the Cetina River. Thelatter contains a smaller phosphorus content and wasclassed between oligotrophic and mezotrophic. According tothese data, employing the Vollenweider equation, the totalphosphorus content in this water should not exceed the meanof 20 mg m^-3 P. The results indicate that the water inthe Buko Blato reservoir did not deteriorate the waterquality on the downstream section of the Cetina River.     

Thresholds in eutrophication of natural waters

The population density of bacterioplankton and the concentration of dissolved organic carbon combined is a useful indicator to monitor subtle variations in the amount of eutrophication. Both parameters can be measured precisely and readily by widely accepted routine techniques that require little skill. Thresholds of eutrophication can be established to maintain the Health of Natural Waters using this indicator.     

Nitrogen isotope ratios in pine bark as an indicator of N emissions from anthropogenic sources

The article describes the use of Scots pine bark to identifynitrogen sources in eastern Germany, as well as background areas in Russia and Bulgaria, by using natural isotope ratios of total nitrogen (N_t) and individual N compoundssuch as ammonium (NH₄ ⁺), nitrate (NO₃ ^-)and amid nitrogen (amide-N). The samples collected were analysed using an elemental analyser in connection with a gas isotope mass spectrometer (EA-IRMS). Natural ¹⁵N abundances in pine bark from impact areas suggest that the ammonium accumulated on the surface of the bark is releasedfrom livestock management. Bark of Scots pines growing near agricultural land had highly depleted ¹⁵N_t values (between –8 and –12), while bark from background areas (unpolluted areas) displayed slightly negative ¹⁵N_t values (mean ¹⁵N_t = –3.8). It is assumed that part of the N adsorbed on the bark surface is mainly derived from ammonia(mean ¹⁵N_t = –40.3) escaping from livestock housing and during the application of manure. This assumption is confirmed by experiments under controlled conditions in which manure samples were spread on soil. In addition, temporal and spatial variations of ¹⁵N_t abundances in pine bark from various locations in eastern Germany as wellas pine stands in Nature Park Dübener Heath are discussed.     

Effect of Temperature on Absorption Efficiency of NO2 in Arsenite Method

The sodium arsenite method developed by Jacobs andHochheiser is one of the most widely used manualmethods for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) monitoring inambient air, particularly in developing countries. Asreported, the method gives 82% NO₂ absorptionefficiency (NAE) in the concentration range from 40 to750 g/m³, when only one impinger tube isemployed in the sampling train at a flow rate of 0.2lpm and for 24 h sampling duration. Accordingly,a uniform correction factor (0.82) is used indenominator to calculate the ultimate concentration ofNO₂ in ambient air.In the present investigation, the effect oftemperature on absorption efficiency of NO₂ isstudied employing four impinger tubes in series tocollect the maximum NO₂ generated in the gasstream. The study conducted at 16, 26 and 36 °Ctemperatures shows maximum absorption efficiency(average) of 87.8% at 26°C in 1st impingertube. At lower and higher temperatures, it is foundconsiderably less. A suitable correction factor,therefore, must be applied to estimate actual NO₂concentration in ambient air using arsenite method, intropical countries like India, where atmospherictemperature variations are large (less than 5°Cin winter and more than 45°C in summer).     

Roadside Concentration of Gaseous and Particulate Matter Pollutants and Risk Assessment in Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania

This study used manual air sampling method to assess the contribution of road traffic to air pollution level in Dar-es-Salaam City, Tanzania. Samples were collected from 11 different sites. Parameters measured were: sulphur dioxide using pararosaniline method, nitrogen dioxide using saltzman method, particulate matter and particulate lead using filtration method and atomic absorption spectrometric method, respectively. Results showed that hourly average sulphur dioxide concentration range from 127 to 1385 g/m³. The measured values of sulphur dioxide were above the recommended WHO guidelines with an hourly objective value of 350 g/m³ at 87% of the sampling sites. The hourly average nitrogen dioxide concentration ranged from 18 to 53 g/m³. The maximum hourly nitrogen dioxide concentration at 53 g/m³ was below the WHO guideline value of 200 g/m³. The hourly average suspended particulate matter (SPM) ranged from 98 to 1161 g/m³, exceeding the recommended value of 230 g/m³ by WHO at 87% of the sampling sites. The hourly average lead concentration was found to range from 0.60 to 25.6 g/m³, exceeding again the WHO guideline value of 1.5 g/m³at 83% of the sampling sites. Results predicted by Gaussian model when compared with the measured values were found to have a correlation coefficient of 0.8, signifying a good correlation. The risk assessment was undertaken considering the people who spend a significant portion of their time near the roads, such as the Uhuru primary school pupils and the adult population who reside by the roadside. The unit risk realised was 18.2 × 10^–6 for adult population and 2.2 × 10^–6 for pupils, both scenarios showing risk higher than the United Sates of America Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) acceptable limit of 1× 10^–6. Considering the magnitude of the problem at hand, this study recommends an introduction of mandatory emission tests of SPM, lead and sulphur dioxide (SO₂). The study further recommends the introduction of continuous and/or regular air quality monitoring and the use non-leaded petrol in Tanzania.     

Non-discharging evapotranspiration bed system for wastewater disposal at Lincoln

A non-discharging evapotranspiration bed system installed on a dairy farm at Lincoln University was studied to evaluate actual evapotranspiration rate, ET _a , to develop and validate a water balance model for the system, and to assess the feasible application of the vaporative concept for wastewater disposal in the immediate geographic area. Observations, measurements, and calculations indicate that ET _a was slightly higher than the meteorologically estimated Penman potential ET (ET _p ) for the study period, and a ratio =ET _a /ET _p =1.21 was obtained. A water-balance equation of the system which can be used in different climatic conditions was obtained and can be written as W=Q+PPTN–Et _a ; where W is the variation of storage water in the bed (in mm), Q is the effluent wastewater (in mm), and PPTN is the total precipitation. It was also observed that a truly non-discharging ET bed system's feasible application in the study location may be highly questionable. This is due to the fact that the precipitation rate for the location generally exceeds the ET _p during critical Winter months. However, two possibilities of improving the performance of the system were found and suggested for further studies. The suggestions were (1) to design the system with its surface adequately crowned to shed large amounts of rain water falling on it, and (2) to design a winter-sheltered-non-discharging ET bed which would consist of an ET bed with a removable transparent plastic roof to shed the total amount of rain water and act as a green house     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.