From population sources to sieves: the matrix alters host-parasitoid source-sink structure

Field experiments that examine the impact of immigration, emigration, or landscape structure (e.g., the composition of the matrix) on the source sink dynamics of fragmented populations are scarce. Here, planthoppers (Prokelisia crocea) and egg parasitoids (Anagrus columbi) were released among host-plant patches that varied in structural (caged, isolated, or in a network of other patches) and functional (mudflat matrix that impedes dispersal vs. brome-grass matrix that facilitates dispersal) connectivity. Planthoppers and parasitoids on caged patches exhibited density-dependent growth rates, achieved high equilibrium densities, and rarely went extinct. Therefore, experimental cordgrass patches were classified as population sources. Because access to immigrants did not result in elevated population densities, source populations were not also pseudosinks, i.e., patches whose densities occur above carrying capacity due to high immigration. Planthoppers and parasitoids in open patches in mudflat had dynamics similar to those in caged patches, but went extinct in 4-5 generations in open patches in brome. Brome-embedded patches leaked emigrants at a rate that exceeded the gains from reproduction and immigration; populations of this sort are known as population sieves. For species whose suitable patches are becoming smaller and more isolated as a result of increased habitat fragmentation, emigration losses are likely to become paramount, a condition favoring the formation of population sieves. An increase in the proportion of patches that are sieves is predicted to destabilize regional population dynamics.     

Can we measure carrying capacity with foraging behavior?

Carrying capacity is one of the most important, yet least understood and rarely estimated, parameters in population management and modeling. A simple behavioral metric of carrying capacity would advance theory, conservation, and management of biological populations. Such a metric should be possible because behavior is finely attuned to variation in environment including population density. We connect optimal foraging theory with population dynamics and life history to develop a simple model that predicts this sort of adaptive density-dependent change in food consumption. We then confirm the model's unexpected and manifold predictions with field experiments. The theory predicts reproductive thresholds that alter the marginal value of energy as well as the value of time. Both effects cause a pronounced discontinuity in quitting-harvest rate that we revealed with foraging experiments. Red-backed voles maintained across a range of high densities foraged at a lower density-dependent rate than the same animals exposed to low-density treatments. The change in harvest rate is diagnostic of populations that exceed their carrying capacity. Ecologists, conservation biologists, and wildlife managers may thus be able to use simple and efficient foraging experiments to estimate carrying capacity and habitat quality.     

Modeling the Effect of Population Dynamics on the Impact of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease

Abstract:  The European wild rabbit ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) is a staple prey species in Mediterranean ecosystems. The arrival and subsequent spread of rabbit hemorrhagic disease throughout southwestern Europe, however, has caused a decline in rabbit numbers, leading to considerable efforts to enhance wild rabbit populations, especially through habitat management. Because rabbit population dynamics depend on habitat suitability and changes in habitat structure and composition subsequent to habitat management, I evaluated the effects of population dynamics on the long-term impact of rabbit hemorrhagic disease on rabbit populations. I used an age-structured model with varying degrees of population productivity and turnover and different habitat carrying capacities, and I assumed the existence of a unique, highly pathogenic virus. My results suggest that disease impact may be highly dependent on habitat carrying capacity and rabbit population dynamics, and the model provided some insight into the current abundance of wild rabbits in different locations in southwestern Europe. The highest disease impact was estimated for populations located in habitats with low to medium carrying capacity. In contrast, disease impact was lower in high-density populations in habitats with high carrying capacity, corresponding to a lower mean age of rabbit infection and a resulting lower mortality from rabbit hemorrhagic disease. The outcomes of the model suggest that management strategies to help rabbit populations recover should be based on improving habitats to their maximum carrying capacity and increasing rabbit population productivity. In contrast, the use of strategies based on temporary increases in rabbit density, including vaccination campaigns, translocations, and temporal habitat improvements at medium carrying capacities, may increase disease impact, resulting in short-term decreases in rabbit population density.     

An experimental test of alternative population augmentation scenarios

Human land use is fragmenting habitats worldwide and inhibiting dispersal among previously connected populations of organisms, often leading to inbreeding depression and reduced evolutionary potential in the face of rapid environmental change. To combat this augmentation of isolated populations with immigrants is sometimes used to facilitate demographic and genetic rescue. Augmentation with immigrants that are genetically and adaptively similar to the target population effectively increases population fitness, but if immigrants are very genetically or adaptively divergent, augmentation can lead to outbreeding depression. Despite well‐cited guidelines for the best practice selection of immigrant sources, often only highly divergent populations remain, and experimental tests of these riskier augmentation scenarios are essentially nonexistent. We conducted a mesocosm experiment with Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to test the multigenerational demographic and genetic effects of augmenting 2 target populations with 3 types of divergent immigrants. We found no evidence of demographic rescue, but we did observe genetic rescue in one population. Divergent immigrant treatments tended to maintain greater genetic diversity, abundance, and hybrid fitness than controls that received immigrants from the source used to seed the mesocosms. In the second population, divergent immigrants had a slightly negative effect in one treatment, and the benefits of augmentation were less apparent overall, likely because this population started with higher genetic diversity and a lower reproductive rate that limited genetic admixture. Our results add to a growing consensus that gene flow can increase population fitness even when immigrants are more highly divergent and may help reduce uncertainty about the use of augmentation in conservation.     

Male turnover reduces population growth: an enclosure experiment on voles

Turnover of individuals is assumed to cause disruptions of social organization, followed by reduced reproduction and survival. We tested how male turnover (removal of resident males and their replacement by unfamiliar males) affected population performance in experimental root vole (Microtus oeconomus) populations. The treatment simulated predation of adult males, with the subsequent replacement by immigrants, and provided insight into the interaction between extrinsic (i.e., predation) and intrinsic (i.e., social organization) factors. We showed that recruitment and female survival dramatically declined and that reproduction commenced slightly later in treatment populations compared with control populations. The treatment nearly halved the population growth rate. We suspect that recruitment failed due to infanticidal immigrating males. Reduced female survival was particularly apparent in treatment populations in which females exhibited a high degree of spatial overlap. Our experimental results show how males may significantly shape population dynamics and suggest how predation and social factors interact mechanistically.     

Importance of Habitat Quality and Landscape Connectivity for the Persistence of Endangered Natterjack Toads

Abstract: The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is endangered in several parts of its distribution, including Belgium, where it occurs mainly in artificial habitats. We parameterized a general model for natterjack population viability analysis (PVA) and tested its sensitivity to changes in the values of basic parameters. Then we assessed the relative efficiency of various conservation measures in 2 situations: a small isolated population and a system of 4 populations connected by rare dispersal movements. We based the population viability analysis on a stage‐structured model of natterjack population dynamics. We parameterized the model in the RAMAS GIS platform with vital rates obtained from our own field experience and from published studies. Simulated natterjack populations were highly sensitive to habitat quality (particularly pond drying), to dispersal from surrounding local populations, and to a lesser extent to values of fecundity and survival of terrestrial stages. Population trajectories were nearly insensitive to initial abundances, carrying capacities, and the frequency of extreme climatic conditions. The simulations showed that in habitats with highly ephemeral ponds, where premetamorphosis mortality was high, natterjack populations nearly always had a very high extinction risk. We also illustrated how low dispersal rates (<1 dispersing individual/generation) efficiently rescued declining local populations. Such source‐sink dynamics demonstrate that the identification and management of source populations should be a high priority.     

Synergistic influences of phase, density, and climatic variation on the dynamics of fluctuating populations

Although ecologists have long recognized that certain mammalian species exhibit high-amplitude, often multiannual, fluctuations in abundance, their causes have remained poorly understood and the subject of intense debate. A key contention has been the relative role of density-dependent and density-independent processes in governing population dynamics. We applied capture-mark-recapture analysis to 25 years of monthly trapping data from a fluctuating prairie vole Microtus ochrogaster population in Illinois, USA, to estimate realized population growth rates and associated vital rates (survival and recruitment) and modeled them as a function of vole density and density-independent climatic variation. We also tested for phase dependence and seasonality in the effects of the above processes. Variation in the realized population growth rate was best explained by phase-specific changes in vole density lagged by one month and mean monthly temperatures with no time lags. The underlying vital rates, survival and recruitment, were influenced by the additive and interactive effects of phase, vole density, and mean monthly temperatures. Our results are consistent with the observation that large-scale population fluctuations are characterized by phase-specific changes in demographic and physiological characteristics. Our findings also support the growing realization that the interaction between climatic variables and density-dependent factors may be a widespread phenomenon, and they suggest that the direction and magnitude of such interactive effects may be phase specific. We conclude that density-dependent and density-independent climatic variables work in tandem during each phase of density fluctuations to drive the dynamics of fluctuating populations.     

Predation, habitat complexity, and variation in density-dependent mortality of temperate reef fishes

Density dependence in demographic rates can strongly affect the dynamics of populations. However, the mechanisms generating density dependence (e.g., predation) are also dynamic processes and may be influenced by local conditions. Understanding the manner in which local habitat features affect the occurrence and/or strength of density dependence will increase our understanding of population dynamics in heterogeneous environments. In this study I conducted two separate field experiments to investigate how local predator density and habitat complexity affect the occurrence and form of density-dependent mortality of juvenile rockfishes (Sebastes spp.). I also used yearly censuses of rockfish populations on nearshore reefs throughout central California to evaluate mortality of juvenile rockfish at large spatial scales. Manipulations of predators (juvenile bocaccio, S. paucispinus) and prey (kelp, gopher, and black-and-yellow [KGB] rockfish, Sebastes spp.) demonstrated that increasing the density of predators altered their functional response and thus altered patterns of density dependence in mortality of their prey. At low densities of predators, the number of prey consumed per predator was a decelerating function, and mortality of prey was inversely density dependent. However, at high densities of predators, the number of prey killed per predator became an accelerating response, and prey mortality was directly density dependent. Results of field experiments and large-scale surveys both indicated that the strength of density-dependent mortality may also be affected by the structural complexity of the habitat. In small-scale field experiments, increased habitat complexity increased the strength of density-dependent mortality. However, at large scales, increasing complexity resulted in a decrease in the strength of density dependence. I suggest that these differences resulted from scale-dependent changes in the predatory response that generated mortality. Whether increased habitat complexity leads to an increase or a decrease in the strength of density-dependent mortality may depend on how specific predatory responses (e.g., functional or aggregative) are altered by habitat complexity. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that rates of demographic density dependence and the resulting dynamics of local populations may largely depend upon attributes of the local habitat.     

Irruptive population dynamics in Yellowstone pronghorn.

Irruptive population dynamics appear to be widespread in large herbivore populations, but there are few empirical examples from long time series with small measurement error and minimal harvests. We analyzed an 89-year time series of counts and known removals for pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in Yellowstone National Park of the western United States during 1918-2006 using a suite of density-dependent, density-independent, and irruptive models to determine if the population exhibited irruptive dynamics. Information-theoretic model comparison techniques strongly supported irruptive population dynamics (Leopold model) and density dependence during 1918-1946, with the growth rate slowing after counts exceeded 600 animals. Concerns about sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) degradation led to removals of >1100 pronghorn during 1947-1966, and counts decreased from approximately 700 to 150. The best models for this period (Gompertz, Ricker) suggested that culls replaced intrinsic density-dependent mechanisms. Contrary to expectations, the population did not exhibit enhanced demographic vigor soon after the termination of the harvest program, with counts remaining between 100 and 190 animals during 1967 1981. However, the population irrupted (Caughley model with a one-year lag) to a peak abundance of approximately 600 pronghorn during 1982-1991, with a slowing in growth rate as counts exceeded 500. Numbers crashed to 235 pronghorn during 1992-1995, perhaps because important food resources (e.g., sagebrush) on the winter range were severely diminished by high densities of browsing elk, mule deer, and pronghorn. Pronghorn numbers remained relatively constant during 1996-2006, at a level (196-235) lower than peak abundance, but higher than numbers following the release from culling. The dynamics of this population supported the paradigm that irruption is a fundamental pattern of growth in many populations of large herbivores with high fecundity and delayed density-dependent effects on recruitment when forage and weather conditions become favorable after range expansion or release from harvesting. Incorporating known removals into population models that can describe a wide range of dynamics can greatly improve our interpretation of observed dynamics in intensively managed populations.     

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chelonia mydas</Emphasis>) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the south-eastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg (~6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length (cm SCL year^–1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass (kg year^–1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0–2.5 cm SCL year^–1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is 80 cm SCL. The expected size-specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the south-eastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50–53 cm SCL (~18–23 kg) or ca. 13–19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the north-western archipelago occurs at a much larger size (ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35–40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be >50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10–20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

The response of the woodpigeon (Columba palumbus) to relaxation of intraspecific competition: A hybrid modelling approach

The recent rapid growth of the woodpigeon population in the British Isles is a cause for concern for environmental managers. It is unclear what has driven their increase in abundance. Using a mathematical model, we explored two possible mechanisms, reduced intraspecific competition for food and increased reproductive success. We developed an age-structured hybrid model consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations that describes density-dependent mortality and a discrete component, which represents the birth-pulse. We investigated equilibrium population dynamics using our model. The two hypotheses predict contrasting population age profiles at equilibrium. We adapted the model to examine the impacts of control measures. We showed that an annual shooting season that follows the period of density-dependent mortality is the most effective control strategy because it simultaneously removes adult and juvenile woodpigeons. The model is a first step towards understanding the processes that influence the dynamics of woodpigeon populations.     

Testing the irruptive paradigm of large-herbivore dynamics

A dominant paradigm in understanding and managing large herbivores is that, after introduction to new range or release from harvesting, the herbivore population increases to peak abundance, crashes to a lower abundance, and then increases to a carrying capacity lower than peak abundance. However, support for the paradigm has been largely anecdotal. We first developed two mathematical models to better describe irruptive dynamics. The models differed in the form of the postcrash growth toward carrying capacity: the "Caughley model" included a time lag that generated dampening oscillations, and the "Leopold model" did not. We then evaluated which of four models (theta-logistic, delayed-logistic, Leopold, and Caughley) best described the dynamics of seven ungulate populations either introduced to new range (n = 5 populations) or released from harvesting (n = 2). The dynamics of six of the populations were best described by irruptive models (two by the Leopold, one by the Caughley, and three by the delayed-logistic), and one of the populations did not display irruptive dynamics (theta-logistic model). The limited data thus support the widespread existence of irruptive dynamics, and we encourage the consideration of irruptive models in studies of large-herbivore dynamics.     

Habitat complexity modifies post-settlement mortality and recruitment dynamics of a marine fish

For species that have an open population structure, local population size may be strongly influenced by a combination of propagule supply and post-settlement survival. While it is widely recognized that supply of larvae (or recruits) is variable and that variable recruitment may affect the relative contribution of pre- and post-settlement factors, less effort has been made to quantify how variation in the strength of post-settlement mortality (particularly density-dependent mortality) will affect the importance of processes that determine population size. In this study, I examined the effects of habitat complexity on mortality of blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) within nearshore reefs off central California. I first tested whether variation in habitat complexity (measured as three-dimensional complexity of rocky substrate) affected the magnitude of both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. I then used limitation analysis to quantify how variation in habitat complexity alters the relative influence of recruitment, density-independent mortality, and density-dependent mortality in determining local population size. Increased habitat complexity was associated with a reduction in both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. At low levels of habitat complexity, limitation analysis revealed that mortality was strong and recruitment had relatively little influence on population size. However, as habitat complexity increased, recruitment became more important. At the highest levels of habitat complexity, limitation by recruitment was substantial, although density-dependent mortality was ultimately the largest constraint on population size. In high-complexity habitats, population dynamics may strongly reflect variation in recruitment even though fluctuations may be dampened by density-dependent mortality. By affecting both density-independent and density-dependent mortality, variation in habitat complexity may result in qualitative changes in the dynamics of populations. These findings suggest that the relative importance of pre- vs. post-settlement factors may be determined by quantifiable habitat features, rather than ambient recruitment level alone. Because the magnitude of recruitment fluctuations can affect species coexistence and the persistence of populations, habitat-driven changes in population dynamics may have important consequences for both community structure and population viability.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Spatiotemporal dynamics in variable population interactions with density-dependent interaction coefficients

In this article, I present a two-patch metapopulation model with locally explicit dynamics to study the effect of spatial heterogeneity and dispersal upon population interactions with variable or conditional outcomes. These are interactions that may be either detrimental or beneficial for each species depending on the balance of the density-dependent costs and benefits involved. The local dynamics respond to density-dependent α-interaction functions that may change sign, thus yielding a diversity of possible local outcomes for the association in terms of type of interaction and in the number of stable solutions. The spatiotemporal model predicts that the fragmentation of space and dispersal between patches may cause further variation in these outcomes. First, the demographic performance of a species in the association is enhanced if migrations cause a proportional increase of individuals of its own species; being so, a victim may become a mutualist or an exploiter, an excluded species may invade, and a good competitor may overcome its own carrying capacity: the ‘enhancement effect of dispersal’; a sort of rescue effect in source-sink dynamics. The underlying mechanisms involve an interplay between density-dependent effects of dispersal per se and the relative local and global average α-interaction functions, which involve costs and benefits at both the local and regional level that may either counteract or reinforce each other; thus, localities and/or populations may change dynamically their sink or source role in the spatial dynamics. A significant insight arises herewith: in the context of variable or conditional interactions the concept of the role of a species does not make strict sense; it becomes a spatiotemporal dynamic quality. Second, regardless of which species disperses, bifurcation of equilibria may occur in those patches that receive the migrating individuals, and annihilation of equilibria in those from where migration leaves; thus, the number of equilibria increases or decreases accordingly.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala’au foraging grounds (Moloka’i, Hawai’i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size—larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala’au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10–20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.     

Complex dynamics of the population with a simple age structure

The effects of the following modes of density-dependent control of population growth: density-dependent birth rate, adult survival rate, juvenile survival rate are compared based on the mathematical model of population dynamics. It is shown that the most efficient mechanisms limiting population size are decreasing with the growth of the adult population birth rate and/or the decreasing survival rate of the offspring with the increase in their number. However, these same mechanisms are responsible for oscillations of the population size and its chaotic change. The density-dependence of the adult survival rate is not efficient in constraining the population growth, but it can substantially limit the magnitude of oscillations of the population size.     

Negative relationship between dispersal distance and demography in butterfly metapopulations

Little is known about the connection between demography and dispersal in metapopulations. The meta-analysis of the population time series of five butterfly species indicated that (meta)population dynamics are driven by density-dependent factors. Inter-specific comparison reveals a significant inverse relationship between population growth rate and the magnitude of dispersal distance. As the range of dispersal distances is constrained by the patch system, dispersing individuals moving too far away would (probably) get lost. This generates selective pressures on individuals with a high dispersal propensity, but favors individuals investing more in reproduction and results in a higher (meta)population growth rate. From a conservation perspective, individuals from (meta)populations and species sacrificing dispersal for the sake of reproductive performances are most vulnerable because of their higher sensitivity to stochastic events: the temporal variation of growth rate was much higher in the two metapopulations where dispersal was limited.     

Information processing in models for density-dependent emigration: A comparison

Density-dependent emigration has been recognized as a fitness enhancing strategy. Yet, especially in the modelling literature there is no consensus about how density-dependent emigration should quantitatively be incorporated into metapopulation models. In this paper we compare the performance of five different dispersal strategies (defined by the functional link between density and emigration probability). Four of these strategies are based on published functional relationships between local population density and emigration probability, one assumes density-independent dispersal. We use individual-based simulations of time-discrete metapopulation dynamics and conduct evolution experiments for a broad range of values for dispersal mortality and environmental stochasticity. For each set of these conditions we analyze the evolution of emigration rates in ‘monoculture experiments’ (with only one type of dispersal strategy used by all individuals in the metapopulation) as well as in selection experiments that allow a pair-wise comparison of the performance of each functional type. We find that a single-parameter ‘asymptotic threshold’ strategy - derived from the marginal value theorem - with a decelerating increase of emigration rate with increasing population density, out-competes any other strategy, i.e. density-independent emigration, a ‘linear threshold’ strategy and a flexible three-parameter strategy. Only when environmental conditions select for extremely high emigration probabilities (close to one), strategies may perform approximately equally. A simple threshold strategy derived for the case of continuous population growth performs even worse than the density-independent strategy. As the functional type of the dispersal function implemented in metapopulation models may severely affect predictions concerning the survival of populations, range expansion, or community changes we clearly recommend to carefully select adequate functions to model density-dependent dispersal.