Regional multiresource models in a national framework

The design and integration of models projecting the effects of management on environmental systems is one step in the environmental planning process. Interactions between resources produced on the same unit of land under current and future management can be examined only when assumptions and processes of these dynamic environmental systems are quantified. Multiresource interaction models have generally been large and cumbersome while also suffering from an inadequate amount of detail. This article presents a conceptual framework for integrating individual resource models to project multiresource interactions at a regional scale. Land management impact projections require common definitions of the total land base and common definitions of management activities applied to the same land unit. A case example focusing on the resources of timber, forage, wildlife, fish, and water for the southern United States is presented.     

Below-cost timber sales and the political marketplace

Political pressures exist to increase the economic efficiency of timber management and production on the national forests managed by the USDA Forest Service. There is growing belief both outside and within the Forest Service that current levels of timber production, and most particularly uneconomic timber production, should be reduced. Many argue that eliminating uneconomic timber management programs will both save money and reduce environmental degradation. This article traces the political evolution of the focus on economic efficiency in timber production and explores the political-institutional factors that are shaping the current policy debate. The below-cost issue is less about economic efficiency than it is about political advantage and alternative political visions of the societal role of the nation's national forests now and in the future.     

Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape,western Washington

Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.     

Linking Multiple Accounts with GIS as Decision Support System to Resolve Forestry/Wildlife Conflicts

With shrinking forest resources and increasing demands for timber, conflicts between forestry and wildlife become more contentious and more frequent. New decision support methods are needed to address complex multiple land use conflicts. Multiple accounts methods linked with GIS and production models enable us to address trade-offs between timber and non-timber values, thus facilitating the evaluation and comparison of different management scenarios in a rapid and spatially referenced manner. The approach is documented in a case study in the trans-boundary zone between two national parks in British Columbia, where caribou/logging conflicts are widespread.     

Simulating Spatial and Temporal Context of Forest Management Using Hypothetical Landscapes

/ Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management, none cause greater concern than the impacts of timber harvesting on the composition, structure, and function of landscape ecosystems. A timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) was used to simulate different intensities of timber harvest on 23,592-ha hypothetical landscapes with varying sizes of timber production areas and different initial stand age distributions. Our objectives were to: (1) determine the relative effects of the size of timber production areas, harvest intensity, method used to extract timber, and past timber harvest activity on the production of forest interior and edge; and (2) evaluate how past management (in the form of different initial stand age distributions) constrains future timber production options. Our simulations indicated that the total area of forest interior and the amount of forest edge were primarily influenced by the intensity of timber harvest and the size of openings created by harvest. The size of the largest block of interior forest was influenced most by the size of timber harvests, but the intensity of harvest was also significant, and the size of nontimber production areas was important when harvests were numerous and widely dispersed within timber management areas, as is often the case in managed forests. Stand age-class distributions produced by past harvest activity limited the amount of timber production primarily when group selection was used, but also limited clear-cutting when recent harvest levels were high.KEY WORDS: Simulation modeling; Timber harvest; Historical context; Spatial context; Landscape pattern; Forest interior; Forest edge     

Governing Change: Land-Use Change and the Prevention of Nonpoint Source Pollution in the North Coastal Basin of California

Many rural areas in the United States and throughout much of the postindustrial world are undergoing significant ecological, socioeconomic, and political transformations. The migration of urban and suburban dwellers into rural areas has led to the subdivision of large tracts of land into smaller parcels, which can complicate efforts to govern human–environmental problems. Non-point source (NPS) pollution from private rural lands is a particularly pressing human–environmental challenge that may be aggravated by changing land tenure. In this article, I report on a study of the governance and management of sediment (a common NPS pollutant) in the North Coastal basin of California, a region undergoing a transition from traditional extractive and agricultural land uses to rural residential and other alternative land uses. I focus on the differences in the governance and management across private timber, ranch, residential, vacation, and other lands in the region. I find that (1) the stringency and strength of sediment regulations differ by land use, (2) nonregulatory programs tend to target working landscapes, and (3) rural residential landowners have less knowledge of sediment control and report using fewer sediment-control techniques than landowners using their land for timber production or ranching. I conclude with an exploration of the consequences of these differences on an evolving rural landscape.     

People, power and timber: The politics of community-based forest management

The potential of devolved conservation to empower people, reduce poverty and protect forest resources has yet to be realized in much of the developing world. This is particularly evident in the Philippines where the central state paradoxically recentralizes political power through devolution at the policy, program and project level in forest management. We investigate how centralized state power emanates through devolved networks to affect the success of local timber utilization involving community-based forest management (CBFM) on Mindanao Island, the southern Philippines. By examining broader shifts from centralized to devolved forest management, results suggest that centralized political power continues to control and adversely affect local uses of timber through CBFM. We discuss how in the process of state authorities recentralizing devolved rights and responsibility over timber management, community-based logging operations were threatened but sustained by members relying on community-based structures and their own capabilities. The conclusion asserts that broader state processes of devolving power over timber management remains constrained by political motives and interests and so largely fails to fulfill the objectives of community-based forest management.     

Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

Forest Management in Northeast China: History,Problems, and Challenges

Studies of the history and current status of forest resources in Northeast China have become important in discussions of sustainable forest management in the region. Prior to 1998, excessive logging and neglected cultivation led to a series of problems that left exploitable forest reserves in the region almost exhausted. A substantial decrease in the area of natural forests was accompanied by severe disruption of stand structure and serious degradation of overall forest quality and function. In 1998, China shifted the primary focus of forest management in the country from wood production to ecological sustainability, adopting ecological restoration and protection as key foci of management. In the process, China launched the Natural Forest Conversion Program and implemented a new system of Classification-based Forest Management. Since then, timber harvesting levels in Northeast China have decreased, and forest area and stocking levels have slowly increased. At present, the large area of low quality secondary forest lands, along with high levels of timber production, present researchers and government agencies in China with major challenges in deciding on management models and strategies that will best protect, restore and manage so large an area of secondary forest lands. This paper synthesizes information from a number of sources on forest area, stand characteristics and stocking levels, and forest policy changes in Northeastern China. Following a brief historical overview of forest harvesting and ecological research in Northeast China, the paper discusses the current state of forest resources and related problems in forest management in the region, concluding with key challenges in need of attention in order to meet the demands for multi-purpose forest sustainability and management in the future.     

Attitudes of Private- and Public-Land Managers in Wyoming, USA, Toward Beaver

Castor canadensis ) management in Wyoming, USA, was sent to 5265 private-land managers and 124 public-land managers during 1993. The survey was developed in response to increasing interest in beaver management and beaver reintroduction possibilities. Private-land managers responding to the survey supplied information on 62,859 km² of land area and 20,037 km of streams. Primary concerns about beaver damage centered on (in decreasing order of importance) blocked irrigation ditches, girdled timber, blocked culverts, and flooded pastures, roads, crops, and timber. Primary benefits that landowners perceive that beaver give them were, in order of importance, elevated water tables, increased riparian vegetation, and increased stock-watering opportunities. Public-land managers also listed these benefits and detriments among their top concerns for beaver. Over 45% of landowners with beaver on their property and all of the public-land managers displayed an interest in a beaver reintroduction program and in more proactive beaver management.     

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF PHOSPHORUS LOADING POLICIES FOR PASTURE LAND APPLICATIONS OF POULTRY LITTER1

ABSTRACT: Non-point source pollution created by agriculture is one of the major issues of intensive production. Recent studies indicate that the eutrophication from agricultural non-point source pollution, especially from phosphorus, is of growing concern. The objectives of this paper are to measure the economic opportunity costs of a proposed phosphorus management policy that targets soils with elevated phosphorus levels and examine the impacts of alternative policies such as Pigouvian taxes on the optimal use of litter. The study focuses on land applications of poultry litter in the Muddy Fork watershed of the Illinois River in Northwest Arkansas. The analysis indicates that restriction of litter applications on soils with elevated phosphorus levels will significantly reduce the net returns generated from forage production, resulting in an environmental policy with a high opportunity cost for producers. An analysis of alternative Pigouvian tax policies shows that a smaller tax per ton of litter applied can achieve the same litter control as that of a larger tax on a per acre basis.     

LOW-INPUT AGRICULTURE AS A GROUND WATER PROTECTION STRATEGY1

ABSTRACT: Protection of ground water quality is of considerable importance to local, state, and federal governments. This study uses a 15-year mathematical programming model to evaluate the effectiveness of low-input agriculture, under alternative policy scenarios, as a strategy to protect ground water quality in Richmond County, Virginia. The analysis considers eight policy alternatives: cost-sharing for green manures, two restrictions on atrazine applications levels, chemical taxation, a restriction on potential chemical and nitrogen levels in ground water only and in surface and ground water, and two types of land retirement programs. The CREAMS and GLEAMS models were used to estimate nitrate and chemical leaching from the crop root zone. The economic model evaluates production practices, policy constraints, and water quality given a long-term profit maximizing objective. The results indicate that low-input agriculture alone may not be an effective ground water protection strategy. The policy impacts include partial adoption of low-input practices, land retirement, and the substitution of chemicals. Only mandatory land retirement policies reduced all chemical and nutrient loadings of ground water; however, they did not promote the use of low-input agricultural practices.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A growing concern for environmental quality paralleled with increasing demands on our forest resources has prompted the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to evaluate simulation modeling as a technique for analyzing management decisions in terms of their environmental effects. The evaluation focused on a system of integrated models developed at the University of Washington which simulate processes and activities within the forest ecosystem. A major part of the system is a hydrologic model which predicts changes in discharge, stream temperature, and concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved oxygen based on information generated by other models representing intensive management practices. The evaluation consisted of applying the system to a 72,000 acre tract of forest land, validating the models with two years of discharge and water quality data from a 93,000 acre watershed, and determining the pertinence of hydrologic modeling for management purposes. Results show several potential uses of hydrologic modeling for forest management planning, especially for analyzing the effects of timber harvesting strategies on water quality.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Applications of Turbidity Monitoring to Forest Management in California

Many California streams have been adversely affected by sedimentation caused by historic and current land uses, including timber harvesting. The impacts of timber harvesting and logging transportation systems on erosion and sediment delivery can be directly measured, modeled, or inferred from water quality measurements. California regulatory agencies, researchers, and land owners have adopted turbidity monitoring to determine effects of forest management practices on suspended sediment loads and water quality at watershed, project, and site scales. Watershed-scale trends in sediment discharge and responses to current forest practices may be estimated from data collected at automated sampling stations that measure turbidity, stream flow, suspended sediment concentrations, and other water quality parameters. Future results from these studies will provide a basis for assessing the effectiveness of modern forest practice regulations in protecting water quality. At the project scale, manual sampling of water column turbidity during high stream flow events within and downstream from active timber harvest plans can identify emerging sediment sources. Remedial actions can then be taken by managers to prevent or mitigate water quality impacts. At the site scale, manual turbidity sampling during storms or high stream flow events at sites located upstream and downstream from new, upgraded, or decommissioned stream crossings has proven to be a valuable way to determine whether measures taken to prevent post-construction erosion and sediment production are effective. Turbidity monitoring at the project and site scales is therefore an important tool for adaptive management. Uncertainty regarding the effects of current forest practices must be resolved through watershed-scale experiments. In the short term, this uncertainty will stimulate increased use of project and site-scale monitoring.     

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

Evaluation of the impact of forest reserves on harvesting costs and provincial revenues in ontario

The establishment of forest reserves for the benefit of other resources and other land uses in areas where timber harvesting is taking place constitutes a significant withdrawal of wood fiber annually in Ontario.This article reports on a case study carried out on a representative forest area in northern Ontario where the primary land use is timber extraction. The results projected to the whole province show that the direct cost to the provincial economy of removing these forest lands from timber production is of the order of $2.5 million annually.     

MANAGING GROUND WATER QUALITY IN RELATION TO AGRICULTURAL ACTiVITIES1

ABSTRACT: Ground water quality is an environmental issue of national concern. Agricultural activities, because they involve large land areas, often are cited as a major contributor of ground water contaminants. It appears that some degree of ground water contamination from agricultural land use is inevitable, especially where precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration. For this reason, and because agriculture differs significantly from point sources of pollution, farmers, policymakers, and scientists need alternative management strategies by which to protect ground water. Mathematical models coupled to geographic information systems to form expert systems can be important management tools for both policymakers and agricultural producers. An expert system can provide farmers, researchers, and environmental managers with information by which to better manage agricultural production systems to minimize ground water contamination. Significant research is necessary to perfect such a system, necessitating interim ground water management strategies that include not only a strong research program, but educational and public policy components as well.     

Managing Forests for Increased Regional Water Yield in the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain

With growing populations fueling increased groundwater abstraction and forecasts of greater water scarcity in the southeastern United States, identifying land management strategies that enhance water availability will be vital to maintaining hydrologic resources and protecting natural systems. Management of forested uplands for lower basal area, currently a priority for habitat improvement on public lands, may also increase water yield through decreased evapotranspiration (ET). To explore this hypothesis, we synthesized studies of precipitation and ET in coastal plain pine stands to develop a statistical model of water yield as a function of management strategy, stand structure, and ecosystem water use. This model allowed us to estimate changes in water yield in response to varying management strategies across spatial scales from the individual stand to a regional watershed. Results suggest that slash pine stands managed at lower basal areas can have up to 64% more cumulative water yield over a 25‐year rotation compared to systems managed for high‐density timber production, with the greatest increases in stands also managed for recurrent understory fire. Although there are important uncertainties in the magnitude of additional water yield and its final destination (i.e., surface water bodies vs. groundwater), this analysis highlights the potential for management activities on public and private timber lands to partially offset increasing demand on surface and groundwater resources.