中国近三千年来火灾群发周期分析

中国近三千年来大火灾害事件存在着多种时间尺度的群发期。主要的群发期出现在中国周代（６００—４９０ａＢ．Ｃ）、西汉（６０－０ａＢ．Ｃ）、东汉（１００－２００ａＡ．Ｄ）、南北朝（４８０－５７０ａＡ．Ｄ）、唐代（７００－８５０ａＡ．Ｄ）、宋代（１１２０－１２４０ａＡ．Ｄ）、明代（１５００－１６００ａＡ．Ｄ）及清代（１６６０－１７６０ａＡ．Ｄ）八个时期。多尺度群发周期序列为５１７、１７３、１２９、９０、６３、４４、３２、２３、１６、１１年，具有普适性、可公度性、标度不变性。     

重特大火灾对南京市火灾发生影响规律的时间序列研究

本文采用时间序列法分析中国江苏省南京市每月火灾发生次数受该时间段内江苏省特大火灾以及南京市重特大火灾的影响规律。在对原始数据依次进行了异常点剔除、季节调整后,运用时间序列干涉模型对调整后的数据序列进行滞后分析,分析结果表明通常重特大火灾的影响可持续三个月。     

基于北京市火灾统计数据的时间序列分析

采用Box-Jenkins法分析了城市火灾时间序列上的趋势性规律,通过数据预处理和模型的识别与诊断,最终建立了城市火灾预测模型。对北京市2000—2006年的火灾统计数据进行了平稳性处理,通过城市火灾预测模型的建模方法对北京市火灾发生次数的时间序列进行了ARIMA建模。根据得到的ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,1)12模型对北京市2007年的火灾发生次数进行了预测,并将该模型和BP神经网络模型的预测结果与实际情况进行对比分析。结果表明,ARIMA模型特别适用于随机性较大的火灾数据的趋势预测,并且方法简单,算法经济。     

基于回归分析的火灾发生气象因子的研究

利用二元回归分析法,对火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速进行回归分析并检验,得出了火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速三者之间的显著线性关系。     

城市火灾与气象因素的相关性分析研究

火灾是目前城市中对人员及财产危胁最大后果最严重的灾害之一，仅就华东某省会城市Ｈ市１９８６年～１９９２年七年的统计数据分析，每年平均火灾发生次数就高达２５７次；平均每年所造成的经济损失达数百万元，火灾的巨大危害性已经了引起有关部门以及科研机构的广泛重视。本文针对火灾发生，发展的过程和有关统计数据，从气象因素的角度，探讨城市火灾的一系列相关问题。     

事故树分析方法在建筑物火灾人员伤亡中的应用

笔者在分析建筑物火灾发生并引起人员伤亡的基础之上,通过系统安全工程的事故树分析方法,综合考虑事故发生的全面过程,建立了建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡的事故树图,从最小割集、最小径集、结构重要度三方面,阐述了导致建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡的主要原因,从各因素的主次性方面着重对事故底部事件进行排序分级以及比较分析,找出了事故预防的关键途径。实例分析表明,事故树分析方法能对导致建筑物火灾引起人员伤害事故的各种因素及逻辑关系做出全面的阐述,并为建筑物火灾的预防以及最大限度地减少人员伤亡,提供了切实可信的参考依据。     

低压断路器在电气火灾防范中的应用分析

低压断路器作为一种电气自动保护装置对有效防范电气火灾起到很大作用.本文通过对低压断路器的工作原理、主要功能及其选型的研究对其在电气火灾防范中的作用进行了分析.     

故障树在含硫油罐火灾分析中的应用

含硫油罐爆炸主要是由自燃、明火、雷击和静电引起的,应用故障树分析法(FTA)对其进行了分析,建立了含硫油罐爆炸的故障树.采用下行法求出了系统的最小割集,通过故障树的定性分析和定量分析,提出了预防含硫油罐火灾爆炸事故的对策,给出了具体的防爆炸措施.故障树的分析结果可以为油罐的安全管理提供理论指导.     

火灾视频探测在地铁中的应用研究

随着近年计算机技术和图像技术的发展,在九十年代诞生的图像检测技术在火灾探测中得到了应用.本文介绍了基于图像识别的火灾探测技术VID(Video image detecdon)的发展,算法,技术特点以及与其他探测技术的比较.并结合地铁中的环境特点对VID系统在地铁空间的适用性进行了探讨.     

时间序列模型在火警短期预测中的应用

基于某市的119火警数据,采用时间序列模型中的ARIMA算法进行了分析.计算结果表明,该市119火警数据的天序列服从ARIMA(0,1,2)模型,周序列服从ARIMA(1,0,0)模型.从模型对数据的拟合效果来看,ARIMA模型较为准确的反映了数据序列的发展趋势.采用这两种模型对数据序列分别进行了短期的预测,其预测值与实际结果在趋势上基本一致,研究表明采用周序列预测的效果要好于天序列.基于时序模型的火警预测方法是实现时火灾应急处置中关口前移的重要措施.     

The use of proactive risk management to reduce emergency service vehicle crashes among firefighters

IntroductionEmergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs), including rollovers and collisions with other vehicles and fixed objects, are a leading cause of death among U.S. firefighters. Risk management (RM) is a proactive intervention to identifying and mitigating occupational risks and hazards. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of RM in reducing ESVCs. Methods: Three fire departments (A, B and C), representing urban and suburban geographies, and serving medium to large populations, participated in facilitated RM programs to reduce their ESVCs. Interventions were chosen by each department to address their department-specific circumstances and highest risks. Monthly crash rates per 10,000 calls were calculated for each department an average of 28 months before and 23 months after the start of the RM programs. Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the effect of the RM programs on monthly crash rates. Poisson regression was used to estimate the number of crashes avoided. Economic data from Department A were analyzed to estimate cost savings. Results: Department A had a 15.4% (P = 0.30) reduction in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1% (P = 0.18) decline per month thereafter. The estimated two-year average cost savings due to 167 crashes avoided was $253,100 (95%CI= $192,355 – $313,885). Department B had a 9.7% (P = 0.70) increase in the overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and showed no significant changes in their monthly crash rate. Department C had a 28.4% (P = 0.001) reduction in overall monthly crash rate immediately post-RM and a 1.2% (P = 0.09) increase per month thereafter, with an estimated 122 crashes avoided. Conclusions: RM programs have the potential to reduce ESVCs in the fire service and their associated costs; results may vary based on the interventions chosen and how they are implemented. Practical applications: Risk management may be an effective and broadly implemented intervention to reduce ESVCs in the US fire service.     

基于对数模糊优先规划法的火灾风险评估

随着城市化进程的推进,每年都有大量的火灾事故发生,造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失,为了避免事故发生或者减少伤亡损失,火灾风险评估是一种有效的方法之一。基于层次分析法,提出了对数模糊优先规划法进行火灾风险评估。首先以地下车库火灾风险评估为例,参考相关文献和专家意见,建立了地下车库火灾风险评价指标体系;然后利用对数模糊优先规划法计算各个评价指标的权重,然后根据专家打分获得评语集,结果所计算的权重集,可以得到地下车库的火灾风险评估结果为"良好"。最后,进行讨论了火灾风险评估的方法的有效性,并与层次分析法对比,对数模糊优先规划法可以使得决策者更加自信和舒适,并且决策结果更加合理。     

城市消防安全影响因素及评估体系研究——以海南某沿海城市为例

在前人评估重点研究公共消防基础、灭火救援力量的基础上,增加消防安全形势、火灾防控工作对城市消防安全影响因素的研究,以海南某沿海城市为例,采用层次分析法构建城市消防安全评估体系,设置定量化评分判定基准,运用模糊集值统计法计算得分。评估结果表明体系更真实地反映了该市消防安全现状及火灾防控薄弱环节,最后针对高风险项提出具体改进措施。该体系模型丰富了评估指标数量;宏观考虑了该市热带气候、旅游型城市特征、火灾情况对消防安全形势的影响;更重要的是,提出将社会面火灾防控工作纳入评估体系。研究对于城市消防安全评估的宏观化、系统化、地域化、实用化、定量化都有一定参考意义。     

Development of fire risk visualization tool based on heat map

At present, relatively few tools are able to visualize regional fire risks both dynamically and efficiently. As a general method of density clustering and visualization, heat maps can be used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of fire risks. In this study, based on combining a transformed sigmoid function with a heat map method, a transformed sigmoid risk model (TSRM) was proposed. A numerical mapping method between fire risk values and colors was established based on an RGB color model. By using HTML 5 and JavaScript, a fire risk visualization tool (FRVT) was developed based on the TSRM. Baidu Map was used as the geographic information system engine for the FRVT by calling its JavaScript application program interface. To validate the TSRM and FRVT with case studies, 16,448 historical fires from 2013 to 2017 in Changsha, China, were gathered and visualized. The visualization results indicated that the high-risk areas were mainly distributed in urban areas, and that the medium-risk and low-risk areas were primarily distributed in rural areas. The FRVT can also be applied to visualize and analyze process-related fire risks from a regional perspective. In further research, it will be important to update the FRVT, e.g., to visualize the fire risks posed by the transportation of hazardous materials.     

基于MCLP-BACOP模型的城市消防站选址研究

为提高消防站规划选址的科学性,合理调度有限的消防应急资源,提升消防应急响应效率,以湖北省某城市中心城区为研究对象,在火灾风险评估基础上,对消防站选址模型进行优化研究,构建了MCLP-BACOP结合覆盖模型并借助ArcGIS软件对模型进行优化求解。研究结果表明：通过MCLP-BACOP结合覆盖模型计算得到的中心城区消防站选址方案在对覆盖率影响较小的情况下,可以减少消防站数量并降低成本,同时能保证高风险区重复覆盖。该模型对于火灾风险较大的城区适用性强,在考虑经济因素及现实条件下,可有效提升城区消防响应效率。     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.     

基于随机森林算法的福建省林火发生主要气象因子分析

应用"随机森林"算法,以福建省22个国家级气象站每日气象数据和2000年~2003年间林火火点卫星解译数据为基础,对影响福建省林火发生的主要气象因子进行分析,并对2004年的林火数据进行独立检验。研究结果显示,"日最高地表气温"、"日最低地表气温"、"日照时数"、"日最高气温"和"日最小相对湿度"等5个气象因子是影响林火发生的主要驱动因子,且这5个气象因子对林火发生的影响大小为:"日照时数""日最高气温""日最低地表气温""日最小相对湿度""日最高地表气温";随机森林算法的拟合结果显示:随机森林算法对福建省林火发生的预测精度为82.3%,表明随机森林算法对我国福建省林火发生的预测具有较高的预测能力,可用于基于气象因子的我国福建省林火发生的预测预报。本研究可为福建省林火的预测和决策工作提供一定的参考依据。