The United Kingdom's assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation options

The UK published its Climate Change Programme in January 1994 and was the first country to do so. The published program contains market measures, voluntary agreements, and regulation. It was established following national consultation. The program was quantified using a combination of econometric modeling (for price based measures) and bottom-up analysis. It is monitored through the National Emissions Inventory with provisional CO₂ trends updated every quarter. The program is being updated to take account of developments since its publication, including the publication of new national energy projections in March 1995.

     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Bioethanol from waste: Life cycle estimation of the greenhouse gas saving potential

This paper considers two alternative feedstocks for bioethanol production, both derived from household waste—Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) and Biodegradable Municipal Waste (BMW). Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been carried out to estimate the GHG emissions from bioethanol using these two feedstocks. An integrated waste management system has been considered, taking into account recycling of materials and production of bioethanol in a combined gasification/bio-catalytic process. For the functional unit defined as the ‘total amount of waste treated in the integrated waste management system’, the best option is to produce bioethanol from RDF—this saves up to 196 kg CO₂ equiv. per tonne of MSW, compared to the current waste management practice in the UK.However, if the functional unit is defined as ‘MJ of fuel equiv.’ and bioethanol is compared with petrol on an equivalent energy basis, the results show that bioethanol from RDF offers no saving of GHG emissions compared to petrol. For example, for a typical biogenic carbon content in RDF of around 60%, the life cycle GHG emissions from bioethanol are 87 g CO₂ equiv./MJ while for petrol they are 85 g CO₂ equiv./MJ. On the other hand, bioethanol from BMW offers a significant GHG saving potential over petrol. For a biogenic carbon content of 95%, the life cycle GHG emissions from bioethanol are 6.1 g CO₂ equiv./MJ which represents a saving of 92.5% compared to petrol. In comparison, bioethanol from UK wheat saves 28% of GHG while that from Brazilian sugar cane – the best performing bioethanol with respect to GHG emissions – saves 70%. If the biogenic carbon of the BMW feedstock exceeds 97%, the bioethanol system becomes a carbon sequester. For instance, if waste paper with the biogenic carbon content of almost 100% and a calorific value of 18 MJ/kg is converted into bioethanol, a saving of 107% compared to petrol could be achieved. Compared to paper recycling, converting waste paper into bioethanol saves 460 kg CO₂ equiv./t waste paper or eight times more than recycling.     

Methods for assessing greenhouse gas mitigation for countries with economies in transition: Summary of workshop presentations and discussions

Environmental Management -     

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in northeastern Colorado

The impact of management on global warming potential (GWP), crop production, and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) in irrigated agriculture is not well documented. A no-till (NT) cropping systems study initiated in 1999 to evaluate soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in irrigated agriculture was used in this study to make trace gas flux measurements for 3 yr to facilitate a complete greenhouse gas accounting of GWP and GHGI. Fluxes of CO2, CH4, and N2O were measured using static, vented chambers, one to three times per week, year round, from April 2002 through October 2004 within conventional-till continuous corn (CT-CC) and NT continuous corn (NT-CC) plots and in NT corn-soybean rotation (NT-CB) plots. Nitrogen fertilizer rates ranged from 0 to 224 kg N ha(-1). Methane fluxes were small and did not differ between tillage systems. Nitrous oxide fluxes increased linearly with increasing N fertilizer rate each year, but emission rates varied with years. Carbon dioxide efflux was higher in CT compared to NT in 2002 but was not different by tillage in 2003 or 2004. Based on soil respiration and residue C inputs, NT soils were net sinks of GWP when adequate fertilizer was added to maintain crop production. The CT soils were smaller net sinks for GWP than NT soils. The determinant for the net GWP relationship was a balance between soil respiration and N2O emissions. Based on soil C sequestration, only NT soils were net sinks for GWP. Both estimates of GWP and GHGI indicate that when appropriate crop production levels are achieved, net CO2 emissions are reduced. The results suggest that economic viability and environmental conservation can be achieved by minimizing tillage and utilizing appropriate levels of fertilizer.     

The potential contribution of sustainable waste management to energy use and greenhouse gas emission reduction in the Netherlands

Future limitations on the availability of selected resources stress the need for increased material efficiency. In addition, in a climate-constrained world the impact of resource use on greenhouse gas emissions should be minimized. Waste management is key to achieve sustainable resource management. Ways to use resources more efficiently include prevention of waste, reuse of products and materials, and recycling of materials, while incineration and anaerobic digestion may recover part of the embodied energy of materials. This study used iWaste, a simulation model, to investigate the extent to which savings in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions can be achieved in the Netherlands through recycling of waste streams versus waste incineration, and to assess the extent to which this potential is reflected in the LAP2 (currently initiated policy). Three waste streams (i.e. household waste, bulky household waste, and construction and demolition waste) and three scenarios compare current policy to scenarios that focus on high-quality recycling (Recycling+) or incineration with increased efficiency (Incineration+). The results show that aiming for more and high-quality recycling can result in emission reductions of 2.3 MtCO₂ annually in the Netherlands compared to the reference situation in 2008. The main contributors to this reduction potential are found in optimizing the recycling of plastics (PET, PE and PP), textiles, paper, and organic waste. A scenario assuming a higher energy conversion efficiency of the incinerator treating the residual waste stream, achieves an emission reduction equivalent to only one third (0.7 MtCO₂/year) of the reduction achieved in the Recycling+ scenario. Furthermore, the results of the study show that currently initiated policy only partially realizes the full potential identified. A focus on highest quality use of recovered materials is essential to realize the full potential energy and CO₂ emission reduction identified for the Netherlands. Detailed economic and technical analyses of high quality recycling are recommended to further evaluate viable integrated waste management policies.     

The greenhouse gas balance of the Province of Siena

There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore, we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines, as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions, even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect, we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities, where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions, seven with low positive emissions, 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities.     

Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs

Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.     

Controlling greenhouse gas emissions through landfill in situ aeration

Landfills and old waste deposits are some of the major anthropogenic sources of methane (CH₄) emissions worldwide. Despite the fact that during the last 15 years the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq.) emitted from German landfills was reduced by approximately two thirds, estimates show that currently more than 10 Mtonnes are still being emitted annually. As a case study, the in situ aerated former Kuhstedt Landfill (District of Rotenburg (Wümme), Germany) was assessed regarding the possibility of reducing the emitted amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG; here methane). The assessment was based on both a model calculation of the landfill gas emissions that should occur under anaerobic conditions (reference scenario) as well as using monitoring data plus extrapolations to determine the actual emissions from the landfill. It was demonstrated that more than 72% of the total GHG emissions occurring under anaerobic conditions could be avoided by altering the ambient aerobic/oxidizing conditions. By means of subsequent thermal treatment (regenerative thermal oxidation, RTO) of the extracted off-gases during the aeration process, the amount of CO₂-eq. savings, as calculated from the amount of emitted methane taking into account secondary emissions for energy production, could be further increased to 96%.     

Calculating the detection limits of chamber-based soil greenhouse gas flux measurements

Renewed interest in quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from soil has led to an increase in the application of chamber-based flux measurement techniques. Despite the apparent conceptual simplicity of chamber-based methods, nuances in chamber design, deployment, and data analyses can have marked effects on the quality of the flux data derived. In many cases, fluxes are calculated from chamber headspace vs. time series consisting of three or four data points. Several mathematical techniques have been used to calculate a soil gas flux from time course data. This paper explores the influences of sampling and analytical variability associated with trace gas concentration quantification on the flux estimated by linear and nonlinear models. We used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the minimum detectable fluxes (α = 0.05) of linear regression (LR), the Hutchinson/Mosier (H/M) method, the quadratic method (Quad), the revised H/M (HMR) model, and restricted versions of the Quad and H/M methods over a range of analytical precisions and chamber deployment times (DT) for data sets consisting of three or four time points. We found that LR had the smallest detection limit thresholds and was the least sensitive to analytical precision and chamber deployment time. The HMR model had the highest detection limits and was most sensitive to analytical precision and chamber deployment time. Equations were developed that enable the calculation of flux detection limits of any gas species if analytical precision, chamber deployment time, and ambient concentration of the gas species are known.     

Joint implementation: Biodiversity and greenhouse gas offsets

One of the most pressing environmental issues today is the possibility that projected increases in global emissions of greenhouse gases from increased deforestation, development, and fossil-fuel combustion could significantly alter global climate patterns. Under the terms of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in Rio de Janeiro during the June 1992 Earth Summit, the United States and other industrialized countries committed to balancing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels in the year 2000. Included in the treaty is a provision titled Joint Implementation, whereby industrialized countries assist developing countries in jointly modifying long-term emission trends, either through emission reductions or by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (carbon sequestration). The US Climate Action Plan, signed by President Clinton in 1993, calls for voluntary climate change mitigation measures by various sectors, and the action plan included a new program, the US Initiative on Joint Implementation. Wisconsin Electric decided to invest in a Jl project because its concept encourages creative, cost-effective solutions to environmental problems through partnering, international cooperation, and innovation. The project chosen, a forest preservation and management effort in Belize, will sequester more than five million tons of carbon dioxide over a 40-year period, will become economically selfsustaining after ten years, and will have substantial biodiversity benefits.     

A reappraisal of WRI's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Excessive emissions of certain trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide and chlorofluorocarbons are likely to result in global warming due to increased concentration of these greenhouse gases (GHGs). Therefore, measures to control GHG emissions are essential and the current international debate is on how to arrive at optimal GHG limitation strategies. To set emission targets or to distribute the burden of costs of various control measures, it is necessary to identify the major emitters. The World Resources Institute has assessed countrywide contributions to global GHG emissions for 1987. This paper disagrees with the basic approach adopted by WRI because it fails to apportion sinks on a logical basis by keeping in mind equity considerations; it does not account for the residence time of different GHGs; and it uses unreliable and outdated data for estimating the emissions. Using recent and reliable data for India and Brazil as well as the IPCC global warming potential for various GHGs, the shares in global emissions have been recalculated. The paper concludes that if only current emissions are considered there is considerable bias against those countries which are latecomers to the process of industrialization.     

Climate targets and comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions trading

In June 1992 a Framework on Climate Change Convention was signed in Rio de Janeiro, calling for the control of greenhouse gases, notably in the industrialized countries. Its formulation allows for joint implementation of measures to reach emission targets for greenhouse gases. Such joint implementation covering all greenhouse gases could form the first step towards a system of comprehensive emissions trading. This paper addresses both advantages and disadvantages of comprehensive emissions trading across different gases, sinks and sources. It concludes that in addition to carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, the inclusion of biotic carbon emissions and selected sources of methane is attractive from both the economic and environmental viewpoint. The uncertainties associated with emissions can be overcome by requiring a thorough review of trade proposals by a broad-based international supervisory body, utilizing a consistent methodology such as that being developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Finally, the paper addresses the central objective of the Climate Convention, which implicity sets a limit to greenhouse gases emissions and thus provides a guideline for the total amount of permits that may be made available in a tradeable permit system.     

Local governance of greenhouse gas emissions from air travel

Global greenhouse gas emissions from air travel (GHG-A) are on the rise, and projections point towards a rapid growth in the coming decades. This study aims to examine how local government (cities), addresses GHG-A in their Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP). To fulfil this aim, over 200 SEAPs were analysed focusing on three issues: (1) Treatment of GHG-A in local emissions inventories; (2) Policy initiatives within this domain; and (3) The cities’ perceptions of the conflicts of interests. Results showed that more than half of the cities acknowledge the challenge of GHG-A, around one third include GHG-A in their emissions inventories, and more than one quarter have initiated policy interventions. To categorise these interventions, we have added a mode ‘governing by agenda setting’ to an existing analytical framework, ‘Modes of governing’. With their authority limited to the local setting, this mode of governing is a common channel for cities to push changes at higher levels.     

The relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the intensity of milk production in Ireland

European Union agri-environmental schemes aim to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural production, but were developed before consideration of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Life cycle assessment methodology provided a framework for comparing emissions as kg CO2 equivalent per kg of energy corrected milk (ECM) (kg CO2 kg(-1) ECM yr(-1)) and per hectare (kg CO2 ha(-1) yr(-1)) for farms both within and outside the Irish agri-environmental scheme. The agri-environmental scheme farms operate extensive systems from 40 to 120 cows producing between 3032 and 5946 kg ECM cow(-1) lactation(-1). The cows are fed on grass, conserved silage, and concentrates. Supplementation ranged between 250 and 620 kg cow(-1) yr(-1). The conventional farms had between 30 and 77 milking cows producing 4736 to 6944 kg ECM cow(-1) lactation(-1). Supplementation ranged from 400 to 1000 kg cow(-1) yr(-1). The emissions from each unit were estimated using published emissions factors and possible error was evaluated by using ranges for each factor. Calculated emissions ranged from 0.92 to 1.51 kg CO2 kg(-1) ECM yr(-1) and 5924 to 8323 kg CO2 ha(-1). On average, total emissions from conventional farms were around 18% (p = 0.01) greater than the agri-environmental scheme farms and emissions per hectare (total area required) were 17% greater (p = 0.02) but there was no significant difference (p = 0.335) in terms of emission per unit milk produced. To evaluate greenhouse gas emissions for each farm in terms of the system intensity it was necessary to define a measure of intensification and area per liter of milk produced that was best.     

On-line greenhouse gas detection from soils and rock formations

Several on-site studies have been conducted on rock formations and soils where gases were collected into boreholes. The equipment consisted of packers isolating a chamber for gas collection. A pump allows gas transfer towards FT-IR sensors located at the surface. Such analytical approach shows several advantages for gas monitoring in boreholes: it allows variation detection with time of the partial pressure of gases; detection and evolution with time of the concentration of annex gases or markers; application to the injection and post-injection periods to determine possible deviations from a previously recorded baseline; and possible use of several boreholes in networks.     

Tillage and field scale controls on greenhouse gas emissions

There is a lack of understanding of how associations among soil properties and management-induced changes control the variability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil. We performed a laboratory investigation to quantify relationships between GHG emissions and soil indicators in an irrigated agricultural field under standard tillage (ST) and a field recently converted (2 yr) to no-tillage (NT). Soil cores (15-cm depth) were incubated at 25 degrees C at field moisture content and 75% water holding capacity. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified that most of the variation of the measured soil properties was related to differences in soil C and N and soil water conditions under ST, but soil texture and bulk density under NT. This trend became more apparent after irrigation. However, principal component regression (PCR) suggested that soil physical properties or total C and N were less important in controlling GHG emissions across tillage systems. The CO2 flux was more strongly determined by microbial biomass under ST and inorganic N content under NT than soil physical properties. Similarly, N2O and CH4 fluxes were predominantly controlled by NO3- content and labile C and N availability in both ST and NT soils at field moisture content, and NH4+ content after irrigation. Our study indicates that the field-scale variability of GHG emissions is controlled primarily by biochemical parameters rather than physical parameters. Differences in the availability and type of C and N sources for microbial activity as affected by tillage and irrigation develop different levels and combinations of field-scale controls on GHG emissions.