Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.     

Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO₂ emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

     

Linking climate policy across economic sectors: A case for green growth in Nepal

While the energy sector is the largest global contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector account for up to 80% of GHG emissions in the least developed countries (LDCs). Despite this, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of LDCs, including Nepal, focus primarily on climate mitigation in the energy sector. This paper introduces green growth—a way to foster economic growth while ensuring access to resources and environmental services—as an approach to improving climate policy coherence across sectors. Using Nepal as a case country, this study models the anticipated changes in resource use and GHG emissions between 2015 and 2030, that would result from implementing climate mitigation actions in Nepal's NDC. The model uses four different scenarios. They link NDC and policies across economic sectors and offer policy insights regarding (1) energy losses that could cost up to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, (2) protection of forest resources by reducing the use of biomass fuels from 465 million gigajoules (GJ) in 2015 to 195 million GJ in 2030, and (3) a significant reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) case by greater use of electricity from hydropower rather than biomass. These policy insights are significant for Nepal and other LDCs as they seek an energy transition towards using more renewable energy and electricity.     

The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.     

Tapping the leakages: Methane losses, mitigation options and policy issues for Russian long distance gas transmission pipelines

The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper aims to characterize the methane emissions from Russian natural gas transmission operations, to explain projects to reduce these emissions, and to characterize the role of emissions reduction within the context of current GHG policy. It draws on the most recent independent measurements at all parts of the Russian long distance transport system made by the Wuppertal Institute in 2003 and combines these results with the findings from the US Natural Gas STAR Program on GHG mitigation options and economics.With this background the paper concludes that the methane emissions from the Russian natural gas long distance network are approximately 0.6% of the natural gas delivered. Mitigating these emissions can create new revenue streams for the operator in the form of reduced costs, increased gas throughput and sales, and earned carbon credits. Specific emissions sources that have cost-effective mitigation solutions are also opportunities for outside investment for the Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanism or other carbon markets.     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Bulgaria Country Study to address climate change mitigation

Future developments of the Bulgarian economy, energy demand, energy supply, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected and evaluated for baseline and mitigation scenarios. Different methods and approaches are used at different stages of the study with a tendency to incorporate them in a single integrated resource planning tool such as the MARKAL-MACRO model. The results obtained indicate that the aim of Framework Convention of Climate Change to have year 2000 GHG emissions below the base year 1988 emissions will be achieved without further mitigation steps. Reducing the expected increase of GHG emissions in the decade 2000 to 2010 requires a package of mitigation measures to be implemented in the next few years.

     

Estimating local greenhouse gas emissions—A case study on a Portuguese municipality

This paper describes the study that led to the development of a carbon dioxide emissions matrix for the Oeiras municipality, one of the largest Portuguese municipalities, located in the metropolitan area of Lisbon. This matrix takes into account the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, due to an increase of electricity demand in buildings as well as solid and liquid wastes treatment, from the domestic and services sectors.Using emission factors that were calculated from the relationship between the electricity produced and amount of treated wastes, the GHG emissions in the Oeiras municipality, were estimated for a time series of 6 years (1998–2003).The obtained results showed that the electricity sector accounts for about 75% of the municipal emissions in 2003. This study was developed in order to obtain tools to base options and actions to be undertaken by local authorities such as energy planning and also public information.     

Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States forest sector

The United States Climate Change Initiative includes improvements to the U.S. Department of Energy's Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. The program includes specific accounting rules and guidelines for reporting and registering forestry activities that reduce atmospheric CO2 by increasing carbon sequestration or reducing emissions. In the forestry sector, there is potential for the economic value of emissions credits to provide increased income for landowners, to support rural development, to facilitate the practice of sustainable forest management, and to support restoration of ecosystems. Forestry activities with potential for achieving substantial reductions include, but are not limited to: afforestation, mine land reclamation, forest restoration, agroforestry, forest management, short-rotation biomass energy plantations, forest protection, wood production, and urban forestry. To be eligible for registration, the reported reductions must use methods and meet standards contained in the guidelines. Forestry presents some unique challenges and opportunities because of the diversity of activities, the variety of practices that can affect greenhouse gases, year-to-year variability in emissions and sequestration, the effects of activities on different forest carbon pools, and accounting for the effects of natural disturbance.     

The environmental life cycle assessment of agricultural sector in Thailand: EIO‐LCA approach

Agriculture is one of the major sectors in Thailand, with more than half of the population employed in agriculture‐related occupations. This study evaluated energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Thai agricultural sector by applying the economic input–output life cycle assessment (EIO‐LCA) approach. The model evaluates the entire agricultural sector supply chain. Based on one million Thai baht (approximately $27,800 U.S. dollars) final demand of the rice paddy sector, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the electricity sector are responsible for 27% (1,246 kilograms [kg] CO₂) of the total CO₂ emissions, whereas the emissions from paddy activities associated with the fertilizers and pesticides sector account for 16% (760 kg CO₂) and 11% (513 kg CO₂), respectively. The top three largest GHG emissions from the total agricultural sector supply chain are associated with the oil palm, the coffee and tea, and the fruit sectors. The government should promote and encourage sustainable agriculture by reducing the use of fertilizers and pesticides and by utilizing energy‐saving technologies.     

A case study of REDD+ challenges in the post‐2012 climate regime: The scenarios approach

The REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) partnership works to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by protecting forests in developing countries through positive incentives. It is regarded as an essential component of the post‐2012 climate regime to stabilize GHG emissions and engage developing countries in worldwide mitigation endeavours. This study focuses on the gap between agricultural revenue and REDD+ compensation through the construction of several scenarios that explore the impacts of possible carbon price ranges.Three scenarios that reflect different potential policies are examined: (1) current carbon trading; (2) carbon trading with all forestry activities; and (3) carbon trading with all countries participating gradually over the coming decades. Data for developing the scenarios were obtained through a case study in central Kalimantan, Indonesia, by interrogating the potential for revenue by expanding agricultural land. The results indicate that REDD+ payments could not effectively compensate land users for their opportunity cost of deforestation, making it difficult for the governments to ensure that REDD+ money “reaches the ground” in terms of balancing the agricultural revenue of land users.     

Assessing alternatives for mitigating net greenhouse gas emissions and increasing yields from rice production in China over the next twenty years

Assessments of the efficacy of mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy rice systems have typically been analyzed based on field studies. Extrapolation of the mitigation potential of alternative management practices from field studies to a national scale may be enhanced by spatially explicit process models, like the DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC) model. Our objective was to analyze the impacts of mitigation alternatives, management of water, fertilizer, and rice straw, on net GHG emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide fluxes), yields, and water use. After constructing a GIS database of soil, climate, rice cropping area and systems, and management practices, we ran DNDC with 21-yr alternative management schemes for each of the approximately 2500 counties in China. Results indicate that, despite large-scale adoption of midseason drainage, there is still large potential for additional methane reductions from Chinese rice paddies of 20 to 60% over 2000-2020. However, changes in management for reducing CH4 emissions simultaneously affect soil carbon dynamics as well as N2O emissions and can thereby reorder the ranking of technical mitigation effectiveness. The order of net GHG emissions reduction effectiveness found here is upland rice > shallow flooding > ammonium sulfate > midseason drainage > off-season straw > slow-release fertilizer > continuous flooding. Most of the management alternatives produced yields comparable to the baseline; however, continuous flooding and upland rice significantly reduced yields. Water management strategies appear to be the most technically promising GHG mitigation alternatives, with shallow flooding providing additional benefits of both water conservation and increased yields.     

Meeting the climate change challenge: a scan of greenhouse gas emissions in BC communities

The Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) is taking significant steps towards climate change mitigation, including a carbon tax on fossil fuels and legislation that mandates greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions within public sector organisations and GHG reduction targets for municipalities. This paper carries out a preliminary scan of the GHG emissions of BC communities using the provincially mandated Community Energy and Emissions Inventory reports. We map trends in energy consumption and emissions per capita while uncovering correlations between these variables and land-use planning, geographic, and demographic variables. These data have shown that: (1) energy consumption in BC is an adequate proxy for GHG emissions; (2) transportation, more than buildings, is a strong driver of overall GHG emissions; (3) building emissions are not likely to be strongly influenced by dwelling type, but density of buildings is crucial; (4) geographic location influences emissions; and (5) population size and age do not appear to influence per capita emissions. These findings are particularly important as they suggest that the potentially intransigent factors of income and population size need not be barriers to achieving significant GHG reductions. The policy onus thus falls squarely on transportation planning, land-use, energy conservation, and fuel switching. This in turn highlights the importance of deeper underlying sociocultural and political preferences, which shape the behaviours that have a strong bearing on emissions profiles.     

An integrated strategy for sustainable forest-energy-environment interactions in Nigeria

The Nigerian forests have been subjected to unguarded exploitation over the years. Although there is overwhelming empirical evidence, which show that Nigeria's forest, may soon vanish, available statistics have shown its increasing importance in the energy sector. With increasing population come the attendant demands on the biotic environment through increased land clearing, deforestation, devegetation, decertification, with attendant soil erosion, flooding, sand dune formation, and changes in the micro-climate with consequent loss of biological productivity and associated socio-economic and socio-political problems in the country. There is therefore the need to adopt measures that will shift the attention of the Nigerian populace from the forest to satisfy their energy needs. However, such measures that will address the challenges confronting the forestry, forest-based energy systems and the environment should be consistent with the development needs, resources and priorities of the nation. Hence, for sustainable forest-energy-environment interactions, a holistic and integrated strategy that can be adopted to minimise the observed forest depletion must take cognisance of options from various land use practices, energy and forest sectors. The focus of this paper is on a strategy of options from both the energy and forest sectors. Based on the socio-economic, socio-political and environmental analyses of various options from the energy and forest sectors, the philosophy behind the mosaic approach to sustainable development has been considered in developing the proposed strategy. Policy measures to implement this strategy of options in the national development programs are also suggested.     

Improving National-Scale Carbon Stock Inventories Using Knowledge on Land Use History

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.