Application of a system dynamics approach for assessment and mitigation of CO2 emissions from the cement industry

A system dynamics model based on the dynamic interactions among a number of system components is developed to estimate CO(2) emissions from the cement industry in India. The CO(2) emissions are projected to reach 396.89 million tonnes by the year 2020 if the existing cement making technological options are followed. Policy options of population growth stabilisation, energy conservation and structural management in cement manufacturing processes are incorporated for developing the CO(2) mitigation scenarios. A 42% reduction in the CO(2) emissions can be achieved in the year 2020 based on an integrated mitigation scenario. Indirect CO(2) emissions from the transport of raw materials to the cement plants and finished product to market are also estimated.     

The United Kingdom's assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation options

The UK published its Climate Change Programme in January 1994 and was the first country to do so. The published program contains market measures, voluntary agreements, and regulation. It was established following national consultation. The program was quantified using a combination of econometric modeling (for price based measures) and bottom-up analysis. It is monitored through the National Emissions Inventory with provisional CO₂ trends updated every quarter. The program is being updated to take account of developments since its publication, including the publication of new national energy projections in March 1995.

     

Screening CO2 storage options in The Netherlands

This paper describes the development and application of a methodology to screen and rank Dutch reservoirs suitable for long-term large scale CO₂ storage. The screening focuses on off- and on-shore individual aquifers, gas and oil fields. In total 176 storage reservoirs have been taken into consideration: 138 gas fields, 4 oil fields and 34 aquifers, with a total theoretical storage potential of about 3200 Mt CO₂. The reservoirs are screened according to three criteria: potential storage capacity, storage costs and effort needed to manage risk. Due to the large number of reservoirs, which limits the possibility to use any pair-wise comparison method (e.g. Multi-Criteria programs such as Bosda or Naiade), a spreadsheet tool was designed to provide an assessment of each of the criteria through an evaluation of the fields present in the database and a set of scores provided by a (inter)national panel of experts. The assessment is sufficiently simple and allows others to review it, re-do it or expand it. The results of the methodology show that plausible comparisons of prospective sites with limited characterization data are possible.     

CO2 emissions in calcium carbide industry: An analysis of China's mitigation potential

China's calcium carbide output has dominated the global market for several years, driven by the demand for PVC (polyvinyl chloride), a fundamental polymer material and also the primary downstream product of calcium carbide in China. The fast growth of this energy-intensive industry leads to an inevitable increase in CO₂ emissions. However, there is a large reduction potential with process improvement in this industry which is currently characterized by widespread outdated facilities. In this study, we attempt to assess the reduction potential of CO₂ emissions in China's calcium carbide production, based on the analysis of CO₂ emission patterns and estimation of the emission amount. Three scenarios regarding process improvement are employed to conduct this assessment. The results imply that the cumulative CO₂ abatement in the Current Policy Scenario and in the Strengthened Policy Scenario from 2008 to 2020, compared with the Baseline Scenario, are 89.0 and 107.6 million t, respectively. The specific measures and policy implications to achieve this potential are also discussed in the article.     

Carbon sinks and sources in China's forests during 1901-2001

This paper reports the annual carbon (C) balance of China's forests during 1901-2001 estimated using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem C-budget model (InTEC). Annual carbon source and sink distributions are simulated for the same period using various spatial datasets including land cover and leaf area index (LAI) obtained from remote sensing, soil texture, climate, forest age, and nitrogen deposition. During 1901-1949, China's forests were a source of 21.0+/-7.8 Tg C yr(-1) due to disturbances (human activities). Its size increased to 122.3+/-25.3 Tg C yr(-1) during 1950-1987 due to intensified human activities in the late 1950s, early 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s. The forests became large sinks of 176.7+/-44.8 Tg C yr(-1) during 1988-2001, owing to large-scale plantation and forest regrowth in previously disturbed areas as well as growth stimulation by nondisturbance factors such as climatic warming, atmospheric CO(2) fertilization, and N deposition. From 1901 to 2001, China's forests were a small carbon source of 3.32 Pg C, about 32.9+/-22.3 Tg C yr(-1). The overall C balance in biomass from InTEC generally agrees with previous results derived from forest inventories of China's forests. InTEC results also include C stock variation in soils and are therefore more comprehensive than previous results. The uncertainty in InTEC results is still large, but it can be reduced if a detailed forest age map becomes available.     

Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2

The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.     

Preliminary assessment of CO2 geological storage opportunities in Greece

This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the suitability of Tertiary sedimentary basins in Northern, Western and Eastern Greece in order to identify geological structures close to major CO₂ emission sources with the potential for long-term storage of CO₂. The term “emissions” refers to point source emissions as defined by the International Energy Agency, including power generation, the cement sector and other industrial processes. The Prinos oil field and saline aquifer, along with the saline formations of the Thessaloniki Basin and the Mesohellenic Trough have been identified as prospective CO₂ geological storage sites. In addition, a carbonate deep saline aquifer occurring at appropriate depths beneath the Neogene-Quaternary sediments of Ptolemais-Kozani graben (NW Greece) is considered. The proximity of this geological formation to Greece's largest lignite-fired power plants suggests that it would be worthwhile undertaking further site-specific studies to quantify its storage capacity and assess its structural integrity.     

Experimental assessment of brine and/or CO2 leakage through well cements at reservoir conditions

Two sets of experiments on typical Class G well cement were carried out in the laboratory to understand better the potential processes involved in well leakage in the presence of CO₂. In the first set, good-quality cement samples of permeability in the order of 0.1 μD (10^?19 m²) were subjected to 90 days of flow through with CO₂-saturated brine at conditions of pressure, temperature and water salinity characteristic of a typical geological sequestration zone. Cement permeability dropped rapidly at the beginning of the experiment and remained almost constant thereafter, most likely mainly as a result of CO₂ exsolution from the saturated brine due to the pressure drop along the flow path which led to multi-phase flow, relative-permeability effects and the observed reduction in permeability. These processes are identical to those which would occur in the field as well if the cement sheath in the wellbore annulus is of good quality. The second set of experiments, carried out also at in situ conditions and using ethane rather than CO₂ to eliminate any possible geochemical effects, assessed the effect of annular spaces between wellbore casing and cement, and of radial cracks in cement on the effective permeability of the casing-cement assemblage. The results show that, if both the cement and the bond are of good quality, the effective permeability of the assemblage is extremely low (in the order of 1 nD, or 10^?21 m²). The presence of an annular gap and/or cracks in the order of 0.01–0.3 mm in aperture leads to a significant increase in effective permeability, which reaches values in the range of 0.1–1 mD (10^?15 m²). The results of both sets of experiments suggest that good cement and good bonding with casing and the surrounding rock will likely constitute a good and reliable barrier to the upward flow of CO₂ and/or CO₂-saturated brine. The presence of mechanical defects such as gaps in bonding between the casing or the formation, or cracks in the cement annulus itself, leads to flow paths with significant effective permeability. This indicates that the external and internal interfaces of cements in wells would most probably constitute the main flow pathways for fluids leakage in wellbores, including both gaseous/supercritical phase CO₂ and CO₂-saturated brine.     

First assessment of sources and sinks for carbon capture and geological storage in Portugal

A preliminary study for a source–sink match for application of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Portugal is presented. The location of the main CO₂ emission sources in Portugal, existing and planned, was analysed and three main source clusters, emitting a total of 26.8 Mt/year, were defined. The three source clusters are connected by a natural gas pipeline network.CO₂ storage reservoirs are likely to be restricted to deep saline formations. Potential storage formations are described in the Porto, Lusitanian and Algarve sedimentary basins. Due to the large continental shelf, composed mainly of sedimentary rocks, it is important to consider offshore opportunities. A Geographical Information System (GIS), including information on the stratigraphy, seismicity, neotectonics and geothermal features, was used for prioritising the areas where reservoir identification and characterization studies should be conducted. Despite not showing the most promising geological conditions, the area around the deepwater harbour of Sines is given the highest priority, since sources in the area account for more than 40% of point source emissions in Portugal.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.

     

Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the Forest sector of Russia: National and project level assessments

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the Russian forest sector include: afforestation and reforestation of unforested/degraded land area; enhanced forest productivity; incorporation of nondestructive methods of wood harvesting in the forest industry; establishment of land protective forest stands; increase in stand age of final harvest in the European part of Russia; increased fire control; increased disease and pest control; and preservation of old growth forests in the Russian Far-East, which are presently threatened. Considering the implementation of all of the options presented, the GHG mitigation potential within the forest and agroforestry sectors of Russia is approximately 0.6–0.7 Pg C/yr or one half of the industrial carbon emissions of the United States. The difference between the GHG mitigation potential and the actual level of GHGs mitigated in the Russian forest sector will depend to a great degree on external financing that may be available. One possibility for external financing is through joint implementation (JI). However, under the JI process, each project will be evaluated by considering a number of criteria including also the difference between the carbon emissions or sequestration for the baseline (or reference) and the project case, the permanence of the project, and leakage. Consequently, a project level assessment must appreciate the near-term constraints that will face practitioners who attempt to realize the GHG mitigation potential in the forest and agroforestry sectors of their countries.     

河南省水泥生产过程中CO2排放量估算

水泥是重要的建筑材料,水泥工业的快速发展有力地支撑了我国经济的高速增长。但水泥生产过程中石灰石分解产生的CO2已成为重要的CO2排放源。根据2006年IPCC提供的水泥生产过程碳排放估算方法,采用全国吨水泥熟料比推算河南水泥熟料产量,对1990--2010年河南水泥生产过程CO2的排放量进行了估算,其结果可为河南省节能减排政策的制定提供科学依据。     

A case study on project-level CO2 mitigation costs in industrialised countries: the Climate Cent Foundation in Switzerland

This paper analyses CO₂ emissions reduction costs based on project data from the Climate Cent Foundation (CCF), a climate policy instrument in Switzerland. Four conclusions are drawn. First, for the projects investigated, the CCF on average pays €63/ton. Due to the Kyoto Protocol, the CCF buys reductions only until 2012. This cut-off increases reported per ton reduction costs, as the additional lifetime project costs are set in relation to reductions only until 2012, rather than to reductions realised over the whole lifetime. Lifetime reduction costs are €45/t. Second, correlation between CCF's payments and lifetime reduction costs per ton is low. Projects with low per ton reduction costs should thus be identified based on lifetime per ton reduction costs. Third, the wide range of project costs per ton observed casts doubts on the widely used identification of the merit order of reduction measures based on average per ton costs for technology types. Finally, the CCF covers only a fraction of additional reduction costs. Decisions to take reduction efforts thus depend on additional, non-observable and/or non-economic motives. Any generalisation of results has to consider that this analysis is based on prospective costs of a sub-sample of projects in Switzerland.     

Devising an integrated methodology for analyzing energy use and CO2 emissions from Taiwan's petrochemical industries

Input-output modeling and multiplier analysis are used to assess Taiwan's five petrochemical industries, based upon their economic contribution and potential impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emission. In addition, a consolidated index system was developed for evaluating energy and economic efficiencies as well as targets for CO2 reduction. Results indicate that petrochemical materials (PM) make a major contribution to economic development, with lesser contributions from plastic materials (PL) and artificial fibres (AF). PM has the highest energy multiplier while PL has the largest induced potential for energy consumption. Plastic and rubber products (PP, RP) are relatively insignificant energy consumers. AF has the highest CO2 multiplier, and its induced potential for CO2 emission is the most significant. The consolidated index shows that the upstream petrochemical industries perform rather poorly in an integrated view of economic, energy, and CO2 emission, and should be seen as the primary targets for CO2 reduction. Investment of the petrochemical industries in Taiwan should be adjusted to improve energy efficiency, economic bases, and lower CO2 emissions.     

Collapse of riparian poplar forests downstream from dams in western prairies: Probable causes and prospects for mitigation

Although historically abundant, the riparian poplar forests of the western prairies are now endangered as a result of the damming and diversion of rivers in this region. Recent reports have described substantial declines of riparian poplar forests downstream from dams in Alberta, Canada; Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Arizona, USA. The present report analyzes the forest and hydrological conditions reported previously in order to clarify the causes of the downstream forest decline. Dams were found to contribute to forest failure by (1) reducing downstream flows and/or (2) altering flow patterns to attenuate spring flooding and/or stabilize summer flows. Reduced flows are reported to induce drought stress, which is particularly lethal to seedlings and very old poplars. The artificial moderation of spring flooding may inhibit the formation of seedbeds essential for seedling replenishment. Increased river valley development involving cattle grazing, agricultural clearing, and direct harvesting of trees also contributes to forest failure. Potential methods for mitigating the impacts of dams on downstream forests include downstream flow schedules that (1) retain occasional spring flooding, (2) taper off rather than abruptly drop downstream flow, and (3) provide adequate flows throughout the summer. Poplar forest stabilization and recovery can be further promoted by fencing to protect trees from livestock grazing and trampling, or artificial site preparation such as cultivation or scarification to encourage poplar regeneration.     

Cement replacement by sugar cane bagasse ash: CO2 emissions reduction and potential for carbon credits

This paper presents a study of cement replacement by sugar cane bagasse ash (SCBA) in industrial scale aiming to reduce the CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere. SCBA is a by-product of the sugar/ethanol agro-industry abundantly available in some regions of the world and has cementitious properties indicating that it can be used together with cement. Recent comprehensive research developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro/Brazil has demonstrated that SCBA maintains, or even improves, the mechanical and durability properties of cement-based materials such as mortars and concretes. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar cane producer and being a developing country can claim carbon credits. A simulation was carried out to estimate the potential of CO₂ emission reductions and the viability to issue certified emission reduction (CER) credits. The simulation was developed within the framework of the methodology established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The State of São Paulo (Brazil) was chosen for this case study because it concentrates about 60% of the national sugar cane and ash production together with an important concentration of cement factories. Since one of the key variables to estimate the CO₂ emissions is the average distance between sugar cane/ethanol factories and the cement plants, a genetic algorithm was developed to solve this optimization problem. The results indicated that SCBA blended cement reduces CO₂ emissions, which qualifies this product for CDM projects.     

CO2 emissions reduction from the power system in India

The power system in India accounts for nearly one-third of CO₂ emissions of the country as a whole. A comparison of some of the technical options to reduce CO₂ emissions is presented in this paper. A linear programming framework is used to simulate the integrated optimal operation of the three regional grids, and it is shown that such operations lead to lower fuel costs and to lower CO₂ emissions. The same framework is used to see how a rise in thermal efficiency translates into a CO₂ emissions reduction. Reduced fuel requirements also lead to reductions in other pollutants ie SO₂, NO_x and fly ash. The reductions in CO₂ emissions and other pollutants are at far lower cost in the case of integrated optimal operations as compared to reductions due to gas fuelled generation or thermal efficiency improvements. However, thermal efficiency improvements under optimal integrated operations result in much higher reductions in operating costs, coal consumption and total emissions of all pollutants.     

Electricity systems with near-zero emissions of CO2 based on wind energy and coal gasification with CCS and hydrogen storage

Emissions from electricity generation will have to be reduced to near-zero to meet targets for reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions. Variable renewable energy sources such as wind will help to achieve this goal but they will have to be used in conjunction with other flexible power plants with low-CO₂ emissions. A process which would be well suited to this role would be coal gasification hydrogen production with CCS, underground buffer storage of hydrogen and independent gas turbine power generation. The gasification hydrogen production and CO₂ capture and storage equipment could operate at full load and only the power plants would need to operate flexibly and at low load, which would result in substantial practical and economic advantages. This paper analyses the performances and costs of such plants in scenarios with various amounts of wind generation, based on data for power demand and wind energy variability in the UK. In a scenario with 35% wind generation, overall emissions of CO₂ could be reduced by 98–99%. The cost of abating CO₂ emissions from the non-wind residual generation using the technique proposed in this paper would be less than 40% of the cost of using coal-fired power plants with integrated CCS.     

Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou,China

This study quantified carbon storage and sequestration by urban forests and carbon emissions from energy consumption by several industrial sources in Hangzhou, China. Carbon (C) storage and sequestration were quantified using urban forest inventory data and by applying volume-derived biomass equations and other models relating net primary productivity (NPP) and mean annual biomass increments. Industrial energy use C emissions were estimated by accounting for fossil fuel use and assigning C emission factors. Total C storage by Hangzhou's urban forests was estimated at 11.74 Tg C, and C storage per hectare was 30.25 t C. Carbon sequestration by urban forests was 1,328, 166.55 t C/year, and C sequestration per ha was 1.66 t C/ha/year. Carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou were 7 Tg C/year. Urban forests, through sequestration, annually offset 18.57% of the amount of carbon emitted by industrial enterprises, and store an amount of C equivalent to 1.75 times the amount of annual C emitted by industrial energy uses within the city. Management practices for improving Hangzhou's urban forests function of offsetting C emissions from energy consumption are explored. These results can be used to evaluate the urban forests' role in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide.     

Development and Experimental Study of CO2 Expander in CO2 Supercritical Refrigeration Cycles

Abstract

As one of the natural working fluids for the refrigeration system, CO₂ has been attracting increasing attention over the last ten years. But CO₂ has to work at the supercritical region for the so-called “condensation” process regarding the conventional refrigerants and evaporate at the two-phase region, and therefore results in larger throttling loss for the practical refrigeration application. Consequently, new technologies must be developed to improve the performance efficiency of the CO₂ transcritical cycle, and make it to be equal or closer to that of the refrigeration system with the conventional refrigerants. In this study, an expander is employed in the CO₂ transcritical cycle to replace the throttling valve, and as a result the throttling loss can be decreased significantly. The paper presents the development of a rolling piston expander and the activity items in the expander design, including the seal technology, the contact friction control, the suction design, etc. The performance experiments for the expander are conducted in the present testing system for the CO₂ transcritical cycle. The results show that the recovery power of the expander is related to the revolution speed of the expander. The efficiency of the expander prototype is observed to be about 32%.