Multi-criteria decision analysis for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of aquifers

We present an integrated methodology for the optimal management of nitrate contamination of ground water combining environmental assessment and economic cost evaluation through multi-criteria decision analysis. The proposed methodology incorporates an integrated physical modeling framework accounting for on-ground nitrogen loading and losses, soil nitrogen dynamics, and fate and transport of nitrate in ground water to compute the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading such that the maximum contaminant level is not violated. A number of protection alternatives to stipulate the predicted sustainable on-ground nitrogen loading are evaluated using the decision analysis that employs the importance order of criteria approach for ranking and selection of the protection alternatives. The methodology was successfully demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The results showed the importance of using this integrated approach which predicts the sustainable on-ground nitrogen loadings and provides an insight into the economic consequences generated in satisfying the environmental constraints. The results also show that the proposed decision analysis framework, within certain limitations, is effective when selecting alternatives with competing demands.     

IMPLICATIONS OF ON‐GROUND NITROGEN LOADING AND SOIL TRANSFORMATIONS ON GROUND WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a modeling approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the variability of on‐ground nitrogen loading and the corresponding nitrate leaching to ground water. The methodology integrates all point and nonpoint sources of nitrogen, the national land cover database, soil nitrogen transformations, and the uncertainty of key soil and land use‐related parameters to predict the nitrate mass leaching to ground water. The analysis considered 21 different land use classes with information derived from nitrogen sources such as fertilizer and dairy manure applications, dairy lagoons, septic systems, and dry and wet depositions. Simulations were performed at a temporal resolution of one month to capture seasonal trends. The model was applied to a large aquifer of 376 square miles in Washington State that serves more than 100,000 residents with drinking water. The results showed that dairy manure is the main source of nitrogen in the area followed by fertilizers. It was also seen that nitrate leaching is controlled by the recharge rate, and there can be a substantial buildup of soil nitrogen over long periods of time. Uncertainty analysis showed that denitrification rate is the most influential parameter on nitrate leaching. The results showed that combining management alternatives is a successful strategy, especially with the use of nitrification inhibitors. Also, change in the land use pattern has a noticeable impact on nitrate leaching.     

Development of a water quality loading index based on water quality modeling

Water quality modeling is an ideal tool for simulating physical, chemical, and biological changes in aquatic systems. It has been utilized in a number of GIS-based water quality management and analysis applications. However, there is considerable need for a decision-making process to translate the modeling result into an understandable form and thereby help users to make relevant judgments and decisions. This paper introduces a water quality index termed QUAL2E water quality loading index (QWQLI). This new WQI is based on water quality modeling by QUAL2E, which is a popular steady-state model for the water quality of rivers and streams. An experiment applying the index to the Sapgyo River in Korea was implemented. Unlike other WQIs, the proposed index is specifically used for simulated water quality using QUAL2E to mainly reflect pollutant loading levels. Based on the index, an iterative modeling-judgment process was designed to make decisions to decrease input pollutants from pollutant sources. Furthermore, an indexing and decision analysis can be performed in a GIS framework, which can provide various spatial analyses. This can facilitate the decision-making process under various scenarios considering spatial variability. The result shows that the index can evaluate and classify the simulation results using QUAL2E and that it can effectively identify the elements that should be improved in the decision-making process. In addition, the results imply that further study should be carried out to automate algorithms and subsidiary programs supporting the decision-making process.     

LAND USE AND STREAMWATER NITRATE-N DYNAMICS IN AN URBAN-RURAL FRINGE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Agricultural and residential activities are key non-point sources of nitrogen pollution in urban-rural fringe areas. A GIS-based watershed approach was used to compare land use indicators (septic system and animal unit densities), to streamwater nitrate-N in the Salmon River near Vancouver, B.C., Canada. The density of septic systems was used as an indicator of residential development while animal unit density was used as an indicator of the intensity of agricultural activity. Nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate-N) concentrations as high as 7.1 mg·L^?1 were found in the mid-portion of the watershed during the summer months, when streamflow is low and groundwater comprises a large proportion of water in the stream. The major aquifer supplying water to the midsection of the watershed is contaminated with nitrate-N. A comparison of the relationships between septic system and animal unit density and nitrate-N in the upstream to downstream direction provided evidence that both residential and agricultural activities contribute to elevated nitrate-N in the Salmon River mainstem. In contrast, only septic system density corresponded to the pattern of streamwater nitrate-N in Coghlan Creek, the main tributary to the Salmon River.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

MANAGEMENT AND POLICY EFFECTS ON POTENTIAL GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION FROM DAIRY WASTE1

ABSTRACT: A combined economic and water quality modeling framework was used to evaluate impacts of alternative policies and management practices on reducing nitrate movement to groundwater for dairy farms in Rockingham County, Virginia. The analysis considers three on-farm manure storage options, cost-sharing programs for purchasing manure storage facilities, restrictions on nitrogen application rates, and a tax on commercial fertilizer. The CREAMS model was used to estimate nitrate leaching from the crop root zone for various nutrient (and manure) management practices, based on timing and rate of manure and fertilizer applications. The mixed-integer programming economic model considers water quality, policy, and economic constraints in comparing the profitability of alternative cropping and nutrient management systems that reduce groundwater contamination potential. The study provides both the environmental and economic effects of better management of dairy waste.     

MANAGING UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANKS IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS: A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Fuels contained in underground storage tanks (USTs) are a major source of soil and ground water contamination. Effective management of the problem at the urban level is difficult due to a large number of tanks and a vast array of factors (e.g., tank characteristics, geology) that determine environmental hazards. The problem is compounded by frequent abandonment and reuse of service stations, which makes it difficult to track the status of underground tanks. Geographic information systems (GIS) are ideally suited to organizing location and attribute data for variables that are pertinent to the UST management problem. A GIS-based UST management system was developed and applied to 136 current and former gasoline service stations in Denton, Texas. The system is effective for tank inventory and can be applied in a proactive fashion to identify potentially problematic facilities. In the event of a leak or spill, the management system can support the implementation of reactive measures to mitigate subsurface contamination. Potential beneficiaries of such a system include planning departments, environmental regulatory agencies, emergency management officials, lending institutions, gasoline distributors, and oil companies.     

Regional planning for the siting of local evaporation basins for the disposal of saline irrigation drainage: development and testing of a GIS-based suitability approach

In order to prevent salinisation of the streams of the Riverine Plain of the Murray-Darling Basin in southern Australia, evaporation basins are used to dispose of saline irrigation drainage water. Local on-farm (individual landholder) and community (shared between multiple landholders) basins are increasingly being used to prevent export of salt outside irrigation districts. There are questions regarding the availability of land suitable for these basins and their impact on the surrounding environment. We describe the use of currently available spatial data to assist in regional planning for the environmentally safe use of these basins. A GIS-based approach was developed using suitability criteria expected to minimise the risk of off-site effects of basin leakage. The criteria were proximity to surface water features, urban areas and infrastructure, water table depth and salinity, and soil hydraulic conductivity. The approach was applied to all of the major irrigation districts at 1:250,000, the scale at which data are available over the entire Riverine Plain. Confidence in well-defined parameters such as proximity to infrastructure, urban areas and surface water features was higher than for those involving interpolated point data such as water table depth, salinity, and hydraulic conductivity. Most critically, hydraulic conductivity, the most important factor for basin leakage, was found to be unreliable at this scale. Use of higher resolution data (up to 1:100,000) available for two of the irrigation districts improved confidence in both water table depth and salinity but not in hydraulic conductivity. Despite these limitations, it was found that: (i) on-farm basins can only be used on an opportunistic basis in the eastern irrigation districts, but can be widely used in the western districts; (ii) community basins can be used anywhere there is suitable land; and (iii) the results raise serious questions as to whether there is enough suitable land in the eastern districts to dispose of all of the drainage water that is produced.     

STATEWIDE EMPIRICAL MODELING OF BACTERIAL CONTAMINATION OF SURFACE WATERS1

ABSTRACT: Bacterial contamination of surface waters is attributed to both urban and agricultural land use practices and is one of the most frequently cited reasons for failure to meet standards established under the Clean Water Act (CWA) (P.L. 92–500). Statewide modeling can be used to determine if bacterial contamination occurs predominantly in urban or agricultural settings. Such information is useful for directing future monitoring and allocating resources for protection and restoration activities. Logistic regression was used to model the likelihood of bacterial contamination using watershed factors for the state of Maryland. Watershed factors included land cover, soils, topography, hydrography, locations of septic systems, and animal feeding operations. Results indicated that bacterial contamination occurred predominantly in urban settings. Likelihood of bacterial contamination was highest for small watersheds with well drained and erodible soils and a high proportion of urban land adjacent to streams. The number of septic systems and animal feeding operations and the amount of agricultural land were not significant explanatory factors. The urban infrastructure tends to “connect” more of the watershed to the stream network through the creation of roads, storm sewers, and wastewater treatment plants. This may partly explain the relationship between urbanization and bacterial contamination found in this study.     

Proactive Management of Air Quality

Traditional air resource management systems have difficulty in addressing global issues, sustainable development, direct citizen participation, and integration with broad economic interests. As reactive management systems, they tend to be compliance-driven, static, and rigid. In contrast, proactive management systems are principle-driven, innovative, and flexible. Bridge scientists play a key role in supporting the transformation of raw data into wise action. Decision-makers need to integrate social values with knowledge about emissions, atmospheric processes, and potential environmental effects using the primary tools of measurements, monitoring, and modeling. The Alberta Clean Air Strategic Alliance, a unique partnership of governments, industry, and public interest groups formed in 1994, operates a comprehensive air management system that is capable of addressing air issues of greater complexity and uncertainty. Its success is measured by the satisfaction of its diverse stakeholders and by the number and scope of its initiatives.     

MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR CONTROLLING NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN THE NEW JERSEY PINE BARRENS AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: Land use planning in rapidly developing areas can serve as an effective tool for minimizing water quality impacts on ground water supplies. A land use management model applied to Jackson Township of the New Jersey Pine Barrens was developed. The management model consisted of a simulation model for the transport of nitrates from septic tank systems through the aquifer and a multiobjective, goal programming optimization model to determine population density restrictions using 208 areawide planning population projections. Results showed that growth may have to be curtailed in several areas of Jackson Township and that current population projections over the next 30 years may result in unacceptably high nitrate concentrations downgradient of Jackson Township. The management framework provides a flexible approach to land use planning.     

Potential for enhanced phytoremediation of landfills using biosolids – a review

Despite the use of recyclable materials increasing worldwide, waste disposal to landfill remains the most common method of waste management because it is simple and relatively inexpensive. Although landfill disposal is an effective waste management system, if not managed correctly, a number of potential detrimental environmental impacts have been identified including soil and ground water contamination, leachate generation, and gas emissions. In particular, improper post-closure treatment of landfills or deterioration of the conventional clay landfill capping were shown to result in land degradation which required remediation to secure contaminants within the landfill site.Phytoremediation is an attractive technology for landfill remediation, as it can stabilize soil and simultaneously remediate landfill leachate. In addition, landfill phytoremediation systems can potentially be combined with landfill covers (Phytocapping) for hydrological control of infiltrated rainfall. However, for the successful application of any phytoremediation system, the effective establishment of appropriate, desired vegetation is critical. This is because the typically harsh and sterile nature of landfill capping soil limits the sustainable establishment of vegetation. Therefore, the physicochemical properties of landfill capping soils often need to be improved by incorporating soil amendments. Biosolids are a common soil amendment and will often meet these demanding conditions because they contain a variety of plant nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphate, potassium, as well as a large proportion of organic matter. Such amendment will also ameliorate the physical properties of the capping soils by increasing porosity, moisture content, and soil aggregation. Contaminants which potentially originate from biosolids will also be remediated by activities congruent with the establishment of plants and bacteria.     

SIMULATING NITROGEN LOSSES FROM AGRICULTURAL LAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER QUALITY AND PROTECTION POLICY1

ABSTRACT: EPIC, a soil erosion/plant growth simulation model, is used to simulate nitrogen losses for 120 randomly selected and previously surveyed cropland sites. Simulated nitrogen losses occur through volatilization, surface water and soil runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and leaching. Physical and crop management variables explain a moderate but significant proportion of the variation in nitrogen losses. Site slope and tillage have offsetting effects on surface and ground water losses. Nitrogen applications in excess of agronomic recommendations and manure obtained off the farm and applied to the sites are significant contributors to nitrogen losses. Farm characteristics such as production of confined livestock, total manure nitrogen available, and farm income per cropland acre explain a relatively large portion of the variability in manure nitrogen applied to survey sites. The results help to identify farm characteristics that can be used to target nutrient management programs. Simulation modeling provides a useful tool for investigating variables which contribute to agricultural nitrogen losses.     

EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION OF MULTICOMPONENT GROUND WATER CONTAMINATION PREDICTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Recent advances in mass transport modeling have made possible computation of the theoretical consequences of intricate multicomponent species interactions during ground water contamination events. Predictions such as strong chromatographic effects and induced downstream precipitations may have considerable impact on environmental analysis and regulation. Results of laboratory attempts to verify theoretical multicomponent transport predictions are discussed. Evidence presented here indicates that natural variability of soil properties make such verifications difficult. Although species interactions are easily confirmed, dramatic effects often exist only within small mathematical windows in strongly variable coefficient sets. Currently, the ability to generate multicomponent predictions apparently exceeds the ability to quantify the necessary, presumably deterministic, information required for real soils.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

GEOSTATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF HORIZONTAL HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR THE KIRKWOOD‐COHANSEY AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer has been identified as a critical source for meeting existing and expected water supply needs for southern New Jersey. Several contaminated sites exist in the region; their impact on the aquifer has to be evaluated using ground water flow and transport models. Ground water modeling depends on availability of measured hydrogeologic data (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, for parameterization of the modeling runs). However, field measurements of such critical data have inadequate spatial density, and their locations are often clustered. The goal of this study was to research, compile, and geocode existing data, then use geostatistics and advanced mapping methods to develop a map of horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer. Spatial interpolation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity measurements was performed using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Method implemented in the BMELib code library. This involved the integration of actual measurements with soft information on likely ranges of hydraulic conductivity at a given location to obtain estimate maps. The estimation error variance maps provide an insight into the uncertainty associated with the estimates, and indicate areas where more information on hydraulic conductivity is required.     

AN INTERACTWE MODELING ENVIRONMENT FOR NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: Non-point source pollution cuntinues to be an important environmental and water quality management problem. For the moat part, analysis of non-point source pollution in watersheds has depended on the use of distributed models to identify potential problem areas and to assess the effectiveness of alternative management practices. To effectively use these models for watershed water quality management, users depend on integrated geographic information systems (GIS)-based interfaces for input/output data management. However, existing interfaces are ad-hoc and the utility of GIS is limited to organization of input data and display of output data. A highly interactive water quality modeling interface that utilizes the functional components and analytical capability of GIS is highly desirable. This paper describes the tight coupling of the Agricultural Non-point Source (AGNPS) water quality model and ARC/INFO GIS software to provide an interactive hybrid modeling environment for evaluation of non-point source pollution in a watershed. The modeling environment is designed to generate AGNPS input parameters from user-specified GIS coverages, create AGNPS input data files, control AGNPS model simulations, and extract and organize AGNPS model output data for display. An example application involving the estimation of pesticide loading in a southern Iowa agricultural watershed demonstrates the capability of the modeling environment. Compared with traditional methods of watershed water quality modeling using the AGNPS model or other ad-hoc interfaces between a distributed model and GIS, the interactive modeling environment system is efficient and significantly reduces the task of watershed analysis using tightly coupled GIS databases and distributed models.     

Development of a risk-based index for source water protection planning, which supports the reduction of pathogens from agricultural activity entering water resources

Source water protection planning (SWPP) is an approach to prevent contamination of ground and surface water in watersheds where these resources may be abstracted for drinking or used for recreation. For SWPP the hazards within a watershed that could contribute to water contamination are identified together with the pathways that link them to the water resource. In rural areas, farms are significant potential sources of pathogens. A risk-based index can be used to support the assessment of the potential for contamination following guidelines on safety and operational efficacy of processes and practices developed as beneficial approaches to agricultural land management. Evaluation of the health risk for a target population requires knowledge of the strength of the hazard with respect to the pathogen load (massxconcentration). Manure handling and on-site wastewater treatment systems form the most important hazards, and both can comprise confined and unconfined source elements. There is also a need to understand the modification of pathogen numbers (attenuation) together with characteristics of the established pathways (surface or subsurface), which allow the movement of the contaminant species from a source to a receptor (water source). Many practices for manure management have not been fully evaluated for their impact on pathogen survival and transport in the environment. A key component is the identification of potential pathways of contaminant transport. This requires the development of a suitable digital elevation model of the watershed for surface movement and information on local groundwater aquifer systems for subsurface flows. Both require detailed soils and geological information. The pathways to surface and groundwater resources can then be identified. Details of land management, farm management practices (including animal and manure management) and agronomic practices have to be obtained, possibly from questionnaires completed by each producer within the watershed. To confirm that potential pathways are active requires some microbial source tracking. One possibility is to identify the molecular types of Escherichia coli present in each hazard on a farm. An essential part of any such index is the identification of mitigation strategies and practices that can reduce the magnitude of the hazard or block open pathways.     

Basic principles and ecological consequences of changing water regimes on nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems

Understanding the environmental consequences of changing water regimes is a daunting challenge for both resource managers and ecologists. Balancing human demands for fresh water with the needs of the environment for water in appropriate amounts and at the appropriate times are shaping the ways by which this natural resource will be used in the future. Based on past decisions that have rendered many freshwater resources unsuitable for use, we argue that river systems have a fundamental need for appropriate amounts and timing of water to maintain their biophysical integrity. Biophysical integrity is fundamental for the formulation of future sustainable management strategies. This article addresses three basic ecological principles driving the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen in river systems. These are (1) how the mode of nitrogen delivery affects river ecosystem functioning, (2) how increasing contact between water and soil or sediment increases nitrogen retention and processing, and (3) the role of floods and droughts as important natural events that strongly influence pathways of nitrogen cycling in fluvial systems. New challenges related to the cumulative impact of water regime change, the scale of appraisal of these impacts, and the determination of the impacts due to natural and human changes are discussed. It is suggested that cost of long-term and long-distance cumulative impacts of hydrological changes should be evaluated against short-term economic benefits to determine the real environmental costs.     

Stream Nitrogen Sources Apportionment and Pollution Control Scheme Development in an Agricultural Watershed in Eastern China

A modeling system that couples a land-use-based export coefficient model, a stream nutrient transport equation, and Bayesian statistics was developed for stream nitrogen source apportionment. It divides a watershed into several sub-catchments, and then considers the major land-use categories as stream nitrogen sources in each sub-catchment. The runoff depth and stream water depth are considered as the major factors influencing delivery of nitrogen from land to downstream stream node within each sub-catchment. The nitrogen sources and delivery processes are lumped into several constant parameters that were calibrated using Bayesian statistics from commonly available stream monitoring and land-use datasets. This modeling system was successfully applied to total nitrogen (TN) pollution control scheme development for the ChangLe River watershed containing six sub-catchments and four land-use categories. The temporal (across months and years) and spatial (across sub-catchments and land-use categories) variability of nonpoint source (NPS) TN export to stream channels and delivery to the watershed outlet were assessed. After adjustment for in-stream TN retention, the time periods and watershed areas with disproportionately high-TN contributions to the stream were identified. Aimed at a target stream TN level of 2 mg L^?1, a quantitative TN pollution control scheme was further developed to determine which sub-catchments, which land-use categories in a sub-catchment, which time periods, and how large of NPS TN export reduction were required. This modeling system provides a powerful tool for stream nitrogen source apportionment and pollution control scheme development at the watershed scale and has only limited data requirements.