江苏省秸秆类农业生物质能源分布及其利用的效益

分析了江苏省秸秆类农业生物质能源在不同作物及地区间的分布状况,并选择3个典型的秸秆发电项目作为案例,采用成本 收益分析、货币价值折算及CDM（清洁发展机制）项目分析等方法,重点研究了江苏省生物质能源利用的经济、资源和环境效益。研究结果表明：江苏省秸秆资源以粮食作物为主,约占918%,全省秸秆资源呈由北向南逐渐递减的阶梯式分布;目前的秸秆发电企业处于亏损状态,最主要的制约因素是秸秆发电等生物质能源产业的资源环境外部性得不到应有的补偿;与燃煤发电相比,秸秆发电节省原煤的同时减少了大量的污染排放,如果其资源环境效益的货币价值得以实现,不仅可以补偿企业的经济亏损,还可为企业带来可观收益;另外,CDM项目为生物质能源产业实现其资源环境价值提供了有效的途径     

中部地区生物质资源潜力与减排效应估算

能源是战略性资源,是一个国家经济增长和社会发展的重要物质基础。随着中部地区经济的不断增长,对能源的消费量也呈逐渐上升趋势。传统化石能源日益显示出供给和环境两方面的压力,而生物质能源的开发利用具有能源替代和减少二氧化碳排放的效应。中部地区生物质资源丰富,经估算结果如下：第一,2009年农作物秸秆、牲畜粪便和城市垃圾3种生物质资源沼气潜力达839733亿m2,折合标煤7 31475万t;第二,开发利用3种生物质资源可减少二氧化碳排放量53 880 59483 t。据此,提出建议：第一,重点开发利用秸秆、牲畜粪便等农村生物质资源;第二,为中部地区生物质资源转化为生物质能源产品进而实现减排效应创造支撑条件     

农村能源消费的环境效应研究

近年来,我国农村能源消费增长迅速,消费模式的转变,传统生物质能源与以煤炭为主的商品能源的消费格局发生变化,与此相关的环境问题日益突出,成为制约农村地区经济—社会—环境和谐发展的重要因素之一,对农村地区应对气候变化能力也产生严峻挑战。本文分析了农村能源消费的变化与主要问题,利用农村能源消费的统计数据,采用排放系数法,估算了1980-2004年时段我国农村能源消费的CO2及主要污染物的排放量;比较了传统生物质能源与煤炭为主的商品能源的消费特点与环境效应,指出基于我国农村地区存量巨大的生物质能资源的高效、可持续利用,是满足我国农村地区能源消费需求,减少温室气体和污染物排放,改善农村环境,提高减缓和适应气候变化能力的重要手段。并在此基础上,对我国农村能源消费提出相应的政策导向建议,实现农村能源的可持续消费与利用。     

吉林长春秸秆能源化利用的易货合同模式调查

在国家能源局和吉林省能源局共同支持下,吉林长春积极探索秸秆禁烧与秸秆能源化利用的模式,通过"易货合同模式"发展秸颗秆粒成型燃料,有效解决了秸秆禁烧、农民用能问题,同时还改善农村生活环境,为当地农民提供了就业机会,值得有条件的地区学习借鉴。通过对吉林长春秸秆能源化利用的调研发现,用"易货合同模式"发展秸秆颗粒成型燃料,可以调动政府、企业和农民三方共同发展秸秆新能源的积极性。该模式的优点主要有以下三个方面:第一,较好地解决了生物质发电和传统颗粒燃料发展中的秸秆收集瓶颈问题,企业秸秆原料有保障,降低了企业经营风险并持续获得稳定收益;第二,农民利用自己家废弃的玉米秸秆,不花钱就能用上清洁、高效的生物质能源,改变了农村传统的用能方式;第三,在发展秸秆新能源的同时,增加了当地就业,解决秸秆焚烧的难题。该模式之所以有上述优势,是因为在易货合同新能源发展模式的设计时,以"易货"为纽带,将解决农民用能问题与新能源产业稳定发展结合起来,将解决秸秆禁烧问题与秸秆能源化利用结合起来,将解决秸秆收集问题与秸秆成型颗粒燃料市场开拓结合起来,有效调动秸秆成型燃料产业链条上各利益主体的积极性。易货合同模式发展新能源存在亟需解决的问题:第一,在我国农村能源贫困问题依然存在的大背景下,缺乏针对解决农村用能问题的秸秆能源化利用政策,吉林长春的秸秆能源化利用的易货合同模式属于探索,需要更高层面的肯定和支持;第二,农民生活能源消费支出习惯不利于秸秆能源化利用;第三,"易货"秸秆颗粒燃料发展模式尚处初期探索阶段,缺少行业标准、扶持政策不到位,生产企业装备的技术含量不高,多数生产企业规模小,产业链条不完整,可持续发展能力弱。用"易货合同模式"发展秸秆颗粒成型燃料新能源,有可能成为我国部分地区改变农民以柴草为主要炊事取暖能源现状的有效手段,是农村秸秆大规模能源化的途径之一。为此建议:第一,在重点地区开展"易货合同模式"发展生物质颗粒燃料的试点工作,探索一条将农民用能、秸秆能源化利用与秸秆禁烧有机结合起来的新能源发展之路;第二,建议农业部设立国家"农村能源贫困扶助基金"和"农村秸秆能源化利用基金",重点支持农业省区和农村能源贫困地区发展秸秆颗粒燃料;第三,积极鼓励探索适合农林废弃物能源化利用的各种发展模式。     

欧盟国家生物质能源供热利用综合分区——欧洲经验对中国的借鉴

供热是全球最大的能源消费领域,全球终端能源消费中供热占到50%左右。2019年国际能源署指出:发展可再生能源供热已经成为全球应对气候变化、治理环境污染、促进能源转型与可持续发展的关键途径。生物质能源作为优先发展的可再生供热来源而受到世界各国的重视。欧盟国家生物质供热事业发展较早、技术较为成熟、政策体系较为完善,其生物热能占欧盟可再生热能消费总量的86%,效果颇为显著,成为供热行业脱碳的重要动力,在全球范围具有极高的示范效应。文章构建欧盟国家生物质能源供热利用综合分区理论框架,基于对生物质能源供热体系供需潜力的测算,通过FCM法对欧盟28个国家的生物质资源利用现状进行量化分区。结果表明,欧盟各国生物质能源供热利用存在显著差异,可以分为五类利用综合区,分别是重点发展类(芬兰、瑞典、丹麦、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛和拉脱维亚)、资源优先类(奥地利、克罗地亚、保加利亚、罗马尼亚和斯洛文尼亚)、政策导向类(德国、意大利、葡萄牙和塞浦路斯)、潜力良好类(捷克、匈牙利、希腊、西班牙、波兰、法国和斯洛伐克)和匮乏迟缓类(英国、荷兰、比利时、爱尔兰、卢森堡和马耳他)。同时,探讨不同类型的欧盟国家生物质供热利用的特点和形成原因,并结合中国现阶段供热实际情况及未来可再生能源发展即将面临的挑战,总结欧盟国家成熟的供热体系和丰富的供热经验,提出有利于中国清洁供暖发展、能源高效利用、能源供应安全以及能源结构升级的一些启示和借鉴。     

中国农村居民可再生能源生活消费的碳排放评估

农村居民能源消费涉及能源安全、环境效应、新农村建设等多个方面,从发展趋势来看,在未来相当长的时期内,秸秆、薪柴等传统生物质能仍是我国农村居民的主要生活能源.本文在分析了我国农村居民可再生能源生活消费现状的基础上,测算了1998 -2007年农村居民可再生能源生活消费的碳排放,评估了农村居民可再生能源生活消费的环境效应.得出结论:在我国农村居民能源生活消费的过程中,碳排放的主体是秸秆和薪柴等生物质能的传统利用,其次是商品性能源的使用.在未来的发展过程中,农村居民能源消费必须依靠农村丰富的可再生资源,优化物质循环过程,变生物质能的传统利用为清洁利用,减少温室气体排放,实现改善农村环境,减缓和适应气候变化的总体发展目标.     

国外农作物秸秆主要利用方式与经验借鉴

对国外农作物秸秆利用主要方式的资料进行系统梳理、总结和分析,以资我国借鉴。文献整理表明:秸秆利用的主导方式是秸秆还田循环利用,大部分的秸秆用于直接还田,小部分的秸秆用做饲料;农业发达国家已形成了完备的秸秆收储运技术装备体系;秸秆离田产业化利用以秸秆发电、致密成型燃料、纤维素乙醇等新型能源化利用为主。最后,借鉴国外秸秆利用的经验,提出我国秸秆利用的主要途径:一是引进消化与创新研发相结合,努力提高秸秆利用技术装备水平;二是开展试点示范,探索践行"三可"模式;三是大力开展秸秆还田循环利用;四是建立完善的秸秆收储运体系;五是积极推行秸秆离田产业化利用。     

东盟国家生物质能源发展比较研究及对我国启示

随着经济的发展和能源供给的日趋紧张,生物质能源的开发已经成为各国寻求新能源的重要途径。东盟国家地处于热带和亚热带气候区,气候适宜,具有丰富的生物质资源,具备发展沼气、生物液体燃料等生物质能源的良好条件。作为东亚能源安全共同体,加强我国与东盟国家生物质能源领域的合作对我国能源安全非常重要。为此,本文着重分析了东盟各国生物质资源量、生物质能源发展现状和政策、发展趋势等内容,并就我国与东盟国家在该领域的合作与交流提出了相关建议。     

中国秸秆资源空间分布特征及利用模式

为促进我国秸秆禁烧和综合利用工作,以全国六大区域为对象,对秸秆资源产生分布及现有利用模式进行了总结分析。结果表明,2016年全国秸秆理论资源量达到9.84×108~t,玉米、水稻和小麦三类农作物秸秆占总量的83.51%;从不同区域看,华东区秸秆产量最高,占总量的24.31%,但不同区域的秸秆组成结构不尽相同。全国秸秆综合利用模式可分为秸秆还田利用型和循环利用型两大类,其中秸秆还田模式主要有玉米秸秆深翻养地还田模式、棉花秸秆深翻还田技术模式、麦秸覆盖玉米秸旋耕还田技术模式、少免耕秸秆覆盖还田技术模式、稻麦(油)秸秆粉碎旋耕还田技术模式、秸秆快速腐熟还田技术模式。秸秆循环利用模式主要有秸-饲-肥种养结合技术模式、秸-沼-肥能源生态技术模式、秸-菌-肥基质利用技术模式、秸-炭-肥还田改土技术模式。为进一步促进秸秆综合利用产业化发展,提出了相关对策建议。     

中国农业能源回弹效应的形成机制、时空演变及影响因素北大核心CSCDCSSCI

降低农业能源回弹效应是提升农业绿色发展政策绩效、确保农业如期实现“双碳”目标和保障国家粮食安全的关键。文章在分析农业能源回弹效应形成机制的基础上,利用系统GMM模型测算1995—2019年中国农业能源回弹效应,利用空间杜宾模型分析影响因素。研究认为:①农业能源回弹效应是由于能效提升诱发农产品生产端和消费端主体偏能源消费行为,导致能源消费增长量超过节约量的现象,反映了农业能源效率与能源消费需求间的弹性关系。②1995—2019年,中国农业能源回弹效应平均为0.789,表现为部分回弹效应。农业能源效率提升产生了一定的节能效果。③1995—2019年,中国东、中、西部地区农业能源回弹效应分别为0.771、0.820和0.784,均呈现先减后增再减趋势,与全国农业现代化进程一致。④以2019年农业能源强度和能源回弹效应均值为界线,将全国分为农业节能减排示范区域、重点区域、潜力区及农业能源回弹效应重点治理区。⑤居民收入水平、农业机械化水平、农业产业结构、有效灌溉面积对本地区农业能源回弹效应有正向影响,区域产业结构、农村人力资本水平有负向影响。城镇化发展水平、农业机械化水平提升改善了相邻地区的农业能源回弹效应,农村人力资本水平提升加剧了相邻地区农业能源回弹效应。该研究提出优化农业生产资料补贴、分类治理农业能源回弹效应、激励生产主体节能创新、引导居民优化食物消费、加快可再生能源技术替代等措施。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.