Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Effects of Eastern Hemlock Decline on Large Wood Loads in Streams of the Appalachian Mountains

Evans, Daniel M., C. Andrew Dolloff, W. Michael Aust, and Amy M. Villamagna, 2012. Effects of Eastern Hemlock Decline on Large Wood Loads in Streams of the Appalachian Mountains. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 266‐276. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00610.x Abstract: Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), a foundation species important to riparian forests of the Appalachian Mountains, is in decline due to the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) (Adelges tsugae). The effect of this insect on large wood (LW) production and recruitment to streams is largely unknown. We measured LW load, riparian forest composition, and T. canadensis health in 47 streams from Maine to Alabama and developed a conceptual model that frames the expected forest stand and instream LW response to the disturbance caused by HWA. In stands with HWA, 24.3% of the overstory T. canadensis basal area was stressed and 7.5% was dead, whereas only 3.0% was stressed and 2.0% was dead in stands without HWA. Mean T. canadensis effective LW load was 0.20 m³/100 m² in streams with adjacent stands infested by HWA, almost three times higher than in streams flowing through uninfested stands (p = 0.048). Higher frequencies of LW were found at streams with HWA present and there was a positive association between the percent of dead T. canadensis and T. canadensis LW load (ρ = 0.4468; p = <0.0001). Greater total LW loads were associated with higher stream gradients, lesser bankfull widths, and streams at lower latitudes. Our research supports the hypothesis that HWA infestation of T. canadensis in riparian forest stands has increased LW loads in streams. This episodic disturbance to the riparian forest overstory may have lasting impacts on aquatic ecosystem structure and function.     

An evaluation of woodland reclamation on strip-mined lands in east Texas

We compared the composition and structural characteristics of reclaimed and native woody plant communities near Fairfield, Texas, to evaluate the effectiveness of woodland reclamation 3–11 years since establishment. Species composition, foliage density, canopy cover, and woody plant densities were recorded in plots randomly placed along transects bisecting blocks of reclaimed and native woodlands. During summer, vertical foliage densities at heights ≤2 m were similar among native and reclaimed areas. Foliage density and canopy cover declined in reclaimed blocks during winter, but remained relatively constant in native woodlands, where evergreens and vines were more common. Canopy cover was absent in reclaimed woodlands <6 years old but increased with age in 6 to 11-year-old blocks. These data indicated that approximately 27 years will be needed before trees in reclaimed blocks will achieve the stature of canopy trees in native woodlands. Reclaimed woodlands contained different woody plant species and had lower woody stem densities compared to native woodlands. On average, stem densities in reclaimed blocks were six times lower than densities in native woodlands. Comparisons with planting records indicate that survival of most commonly planted woody species was low. Only green ash(Fraxinus pennsylvanica), Russian oliver(Elaeagnus commutata), smooth sumac(Rhus glabra), and redbud(Cercis canadensis) had estimated survival rates >50%. Reclamation procedures used at Big Brown Mine (BBM) during 1981–1988 have not produced woodland habitats with vegetative characteristics comparable to premined woodlands and may not be providing the cover needed to encourage use by certain wildlife species. Procedures for improving woodland reclamation are recommended.     

Linking Local Perceptions to the Biophysical and Amenity Contexts of Forest Disturbance in Colorado

Disturbances by insects have considerable effect on the heterogeneity of forested landscapes in North America. Responding to calls for bringing human dimensions of landscape disturbance and heterogeneity into ecological assessments and management strategies, this paper explores linkages between biophysical, socioeconomic, and perceptual aspects of a mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in north central Colorado. Findings are presented from surveys conducted with residents of nine Colorado communities and variations in local perceptions of MPB risks and forest management attitudes are compared to indices of tree mortality and amenity characteristics. Findings suggest respondents from lower amenity communities with more recent emphasis on resource extraction and higher tree mortality had significantly higher risk perceptions of some MPB impacts, lower trust in federal forest management, and higher faith in forest industry and specific industry options than those from higher amenity communities with less tree mortality. While not implying these contextual influences fully explain such perceptual dimensions, this paper explores possible implications of heterogeneity across human landscapes for improving the saliency and efficiency of regional forest management and planning.     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

SATURATED SOIL HYDRAULIC CONDUCTWITY IN LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATIONS ON DRAINED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Variation of in situ measured saturated hydraulic conductivity (KS) with stand age was examined in drained and intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations on very poorly drained Bayboro loam soils. Stand ages studied were 1-year-old and 14-years old. No differences in Ks values were found between the stand ages. In addition, no differences in core measured soil properties were found between the stand ages, indicating that there were no differences in the pore structure of the soil matrix. There was large variation of Ks within stands and between stands within ages. The mean within stand Ks values ranged from 0.66 cm/hr to 4.85 cm/hr. The frequency of tests exhibiting pipe flow through large non-capillary voids was significantly greater in the older stands; however, the continuity of the voids in the soil, and whether or not non-Darcy type flow would occur in a saturated profile, could not be determined.     

Bed Stability and Sedimentation Associated With Human Disturbances in Pacific Northwest Streams1

Abstract: To evaluate anthropogenic sedimentation in United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest coastal streams, we applied an index of relative bed stability (LRBS*) to summer low flow survey data collected using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program field methods in a probability sample of 101 wadeable stream reaches. LRBS* is the log of the ratio of bed surface geometric mean particle diameter (D_gm) to critical diameter (D*_cbf) at bankfull flow, based on a modified Shield’s criterion for incipient motion. We used a formulation of LRBS* that explicitly accounts for reductions in bed shear stress that result from channel form roughness due to pools and wood. LRBS* ranged from ?1.9 to +0.5 in streams within the lower quartile of human riparian and basin disturbance, and was substantially lower (?4.2 to ?1.1) in streams within the upper quartile of human disturbance. Modeling results suggest that the expected range of LRBS* in streams without human disturbances in this region might be generally between ?0.7 and +0.5 in either sedimentary or volcanic lithology. However, streams draining relatively soft, erodible sedimentary lithology showed greater reductions in LRBS* associated with disturbance than did those having harder, more resistant volcanic (basalt) lithology with similar levels of basin and riparian disturbance. At any given level of disturbance, smaller streams had lower LRBS* than those with larger drainages. In sedimentary lithology (sandstone and siltstone), high‐gradient streams had higher LRBS* than did low‐gradient streams of the same size and level of human disturbance. High gradient streams in volcanic lithology, in contrast, had lower LRBS* than low‐gradient streams of similar size and disturbance. Correlations between D_gm and land disturbance were stronger than those observed between D*_cbf and land disturbance. This pattern suggests that land use has augmented sediment supplies and increased streambed fine sediments in the most disturbed streams. However, we also show evidence that some of the apparent reductions in LRBS*, particularly in steep streams draining small volcanic drainages, may have resulted in part from anthropogenic increases in bed shear stress. The synoptic survey methods and designs we use appear adequate to evaluate regional patterns in bed stability and sedimentation and their general relationship to human disturbances. More precise field measurements of channel slope, cross‐section geometry, and bed surface particle size would be required to use LRBS* in applications requiring a higher degree of accuracy and precision, such as site‐specific assessments at individual streams.     

Human Dimensions of Forest Disturbance by Insects: An International Synthesis

Ecological disturbances of forests by insects have a complex array of associated human dimensions presenting complications for natural resource decision making and relationships between stakeholders and managers. This article discusses the human context of forest disturbances by insects by reviewing four cases of bark beetle forest disturbance from British Columbia in Canada, Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany, the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, and the north central region of Colorado. Findings and lessons learned from these studies are outlined along with their implications for managing forest disturbances by insects in general. Conclusions focus on the need to assess the broad array of impacts and risks perceived by local residents and the capacity for local action and involvement in managing forest disturbances. Communication and interaction between resource managers and local stakeholders can facilitate the identification of management priorities and potentially reduce some of the risks associated with forest disturbances by insects.     

Human Disturbance Threats the Red-Listed Macrolichen Seirophora villosa (Ach.) Frödén in Coastal Juniperus Habitats: Evidence From Western Peninsular Italy

In Europe, coastal dune systems with Juniperus spp. (Natura 2000 habitat code 2250) are a priority habitat for conservation according to the Natura 2000 policies. Currently, anthropogenic pressure is threatening the biodiversity of this habitat. While the impact of human pressure on animals and vascular plants is already documented, information is still scanty for other organisms such as epiphytic lichens. The main aim of this study is to test the effect of human disturbance on the occurrence and abundance of the red-listed macrolichen Seirophora villosa. We also tested the effect of human disturbance on the whole community of epiphytic lichens in terms of species richness and composition. The study was performed along the coast of Tuscany by comparing both disturbed and undisturbed Juniperus stands according to a stratified random sampling design. Our results provided evidence that in coastal systems the long-term conservation of the red-listed macrolichen S. villosa and its characteristic community composed by several Mediterranean species of conservation concern depends on the maintenance of undisturbed Juniperus habitats. Results also support the possibility of using S. villosa as an indicator species of habitat conservation importance and habitat integrity since its occurrence is predicted on nestedness in term of species composition, assemblages of species poor disturbed stands being subsets of those of richer undisturbed stands.     

Impact of Disturbance on Waterfowl Wintering in a UK Dockland Redevelopment Area

One of the UK's largest flocks of pochard Aythya ferina and tufted duck A. fuligula winters in Manchester's busy dockland redevelopment area. I examined the effects of human disturbance on the population, and used this information to recommend minimal land-use restrictions that will help ensure the population's continued use of the site. Birds fed at the docks every night, but on 75% of days, the flock flew to suburban or rural refuges in response to disturbance. The common causes of disturbance, particularly pedestrians, did not affect the duck greatly, but disturbances associated with building and redevelopment of the site (e.g., machinery) often made duck evacuate the dock. While birds were no less likely to evacuate the docks as the winter progressed, they did show some short-term flexibility in their responses to disturbance. For example, birds appeared able to sit out disturbances throughout the afternoon if they had avoided evacuation of the docks during the morning. Birds spent only a small proportion of time feeding, and feeding activity was not heightened following periods of exclusion from the docks due to disturbance. Daytime feeding activity was elevated during periods of lowering temperatures, and despite heavy disturbance at the site, the impact of disturbance may only be significant during the coldest period of the winter. During very cold spells, it is important to limit the incidence of unusual disturbances, such as evening concerts and waterborne activities which tend to make duck evacuate the site.     

Responses of Three Heathland Shrubs to Single or Repeated Experimental Trampling

In the last few decades, trampling has become a cause of major disturbance to natural areas. Trampling can occur regularly either seasonally or throughout the year, or as a single impact depending on a recreational activity or an event. This study, carried out on a coastal heathland in north Brittany (France), was based on the hypothesis that the vegetation response can differ depending on whether the trampling is repeated or due to a single event. The aim was to compare the resistance and the short-term recovery capacity of selected species in coastal heathland communities subjected to a trampling experiment, applied once or five times (with equal total number of passes from 0 to 800). The temporal distribution of the trampling did not affect the response of Erica ciliaris, whereas for Erica cinerea and Ulex gallii, trampling was slightly less damaging when applied once rather than five times. These differences could be linked to the lower resistance and the higher recovery capacity of E. ciliaris, compared with the two other species. This study also emphasized the influence of site location by comparing observations with previous studies. Plant resistance calculated here appeared to be lower than that calculated for a less stressful site. The relationship between plant traits and response to trampling was also investigated. The effects of the different times between disturbance application and observations of the short-term response of woody vegetation to experimental trampling is also discussed.     

A Framework for Responding to Coral Disease Outbreaks that Facilitates Adaptive Management

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.     

Shrub-Steppe Early Succession Following Juniper Cutting and Prescribed Fire

Pinus-Juniperus L. (Piñon-juniper) woodlands of the western United States have expanded in area nearly 10-fold since the late 1800’s. Juniperus occidentalis ssp. occidentalis Hook. (western juniper) dominance in sagebrush steppe has several negative consequences, including reductions in herbaceous production and diversity, decreased wildlife habitat, and higher erosion and runoff potentials. Prescribed fire and mechanical tree removal are the main methods used to control J. occidentalis and restore sagebrush steppe. However, mature woodlands become difficult to prescribe burn because of the lack of understory fuels. We evaluated partial cutting of the woodlands (cutting 25–50% of the trees) to increase surface fuels, followed by prescribed fire treatments in late successional J. occidentalis woodlands of southwest Idaho to assess understory recovery. The study was conducted in two different plant associations and evaluated what percentage of the woodland required preparatory cutting to eliminate remaining J. occidentalis by prescribed fire, determined the impacts of fire to understory species, and examined early post-fire successional dynamics. The study demonstrated that late successional J. occidentalis woodlands can be burned after pre-cutting only a portion of the trees. Early succession in the cut-and-burn treatments were dominated by native annual and perennial forbs, in part due to high mortality of perennial bunchgrasses. By the third year after fire the number of establishing perennial grass seedlings indicated that both associations would achieve full herbaceous recovery. Cutting-prescribed fire combinations are an effective means for controlling encroaching late successional J. occidentalis and restoring herbaceous plant communities. However, land managers should recognize that there are potential problems associated with cutting-prescribed fire applications when invasive weeds are present.     

Changes in flood-plain vegetation and land use along the Missouri River from 1826 to 1972

Changes in vegetation and land use since 1826 were evaluated along the 800 kilometer portion of the Missouri River flood-plain that extends across the State of Missouri using County Land Office Survey records for 1826 and aerial photos for 1937, 1958, and 1972. The combined results show a decline in flood-plain forest coverage from 76% in 1826 to 13% in 1972; cultivated land increased from 18% to 83% during the same time. Uncultivated-unforested areas increased from 6% in 1826 to 27% in 1937, then declined to 1% in 1972; these changes occurred coincident with extensive bank-stabilization and channelization activities initiated in 1912 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Riverbank stabilization activity since that time may account for the increased rate of decline in flood-plain forests from 0.25% per year between 1826 and 1937 to 1.6% per year between 1937 and 1972.The overall species composition of the 1826 flood-plain forests was found to be most similar to mature forest stands evaluated in 1972; similar frequencies in 1826 and 1972 occurred for hackberry (Celtis occidentalis; 80% in 1826, 83% in 1972), elm (Ulmus spp.; 80% and 83%), and sycamore (Platanus occidentalis; 57% and 50%). Pawpaw (Asimina triloba), found only in mature flood-plain forests in 1972, was recorded along 54% of the 1826 section lines.These combined data indicate (1) that pre-settlement flood-plain forests were extensive and included frequent, mature stands, (2) that in certain areas substantial portions of the flood-plain were in cultivation prior to extensive riverbank stabilization and channelization, and (3) that increased flood-plain forest clearing occurred coincident with increased bank-stabilization activities.     

Comparing the impacts of mitigation and non-mitigation on mountain pine beetle populations

Mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) attack and can ultimately kill individuals and groups of pine trees, specifically lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud var. latifolia Engl.). In British Columbia, beetle attack has increased from 164 000 ha in 1999 to over 13 million ha in 2008. Mitigation efforts can play a key role in addressing the impact beetle infestations can have on the forested landscape. In this research, the impact of mitigation on a mountain pine beetle infestation is examined within a network of 28 research plots where sanitation harvesting was completed (10 mitigated plots) and not completed (18 unmitigated plots). Three forest stand level modelling scenarios which predict the number of attacked trees, based on current infestation within the plots, were utilized to compare the differences between mitigated and non-mitigated plots. In the first scenario in the non-mitigated plots, 125 trees were infested after 10 years, while in the mitigated plots no trees were infested in the same time period. The second scenario indicates the level of mitigation required to suppress beetle infestations where the proportion of mitigated trees was calculated for each plot by counting the residual attack and the number of mitigated trees. The average mitigation rate over all plots of 43% (range 0–100%) is not sufficient to provide control. In the non-mitigated plots, the average population expansion rate was 5 (range of 0–18) which requires a detection accuracy of 74% to reliably detect infestation. The third scenario estimated the length of time required for ongoing detection, monitoring, and mitigation to bring an infestation under control. If mitigation efforts were maintained at the current rate of 43%, the beetle population would not be adequately controlled. However, when aided by continued detection and monitoring of attacked trees, mitigation rates greater than 50% are sufficient to control infestations, especially with persistent implementation, aided by continued detection and monitoring of infested trees.     

Importance of Riparian Forests in Urban Catchments Contingent on Sediment and Hydrologic Regimes

Forested riparian corridors are thought to minimize impacts of landscape disturbance on stream ecosystems; yet, the effectiveness of streamside forests in mitigating disturbance in urbanizing catchments is unknown. We expected that riparian forests would provide minimal benefits for fish assemblages in streams that are highly impaired by sediment or hydrologic alteration. We tested this hypothesis in 30 small streams along a gradient of urban disturbance (1–65% urban land cover). Species expected to be sensitive to disturbance (i.e., fluvial specialists and “sensitive” species that respond negatively to urbanization) were best predicted by models including percent forest cover in the riparian corridor and a principal components axis describing sediment disturbance. Only sites with coarse bed sediment and low bed mobility (vs. sites with high amounts of fine sediment) had increased richness and abundances of sensitive species with higher percent riparian forests, supporting our hypothesis that response to riparian forests is contingent on the sediment regime. Abundances of Etheostoma scotti, the federally threatened Cherokee darter, were best predicted by models with single variables representing stormflow (r² = 0.34) and sediment (r² = 0.23) conditions. Lentic-tolerant species richness and abundance responded only to a variable representing prolonged duration of low-flow conditions. For these species, hydrologic alteration overwhelmed any influence of riparian forests on stream biota. These results suggest that, at a minimum, catchment management strategies must simultaneously address hydrologic, sediment, and riparian disturbance in order to protect all aspects of fish assemblage integrity.     

Stand density index applied to timber and goshawk habitat objectives in Douglas-fir

Silvicultural guidelines are presented for the management of intermountain Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands for sawtimber production and goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) nesting habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains. Data from 14 goshawk nest stands in Douglas-fir forests on the Targhee National Forest in Idaho (Patla 1991) were used to characterize the range of stand conditions considered suitable for goshawk nesting. A density management regime is presented using Reineke's stand density index that includes a technical rotation designed to produce sawlogs with a single commercial thinning. On average timber-growing sites, stands reach goshawk habitat suitability when site height is 25 m at age 75 and provide 65 years of goshawk nesting habitat until the final harvest at age 140. Approximately 1320 m³/ha are harvested over the rotation. On higher-quality sites, rotation length declines from 140 to 85 years, of which roughly 35 years are suitable for goshawk nesting.     

Recent Changes in the Riparian Forest of a Large Regulated Mediterranean River: Implications for Management

The structure of the floodplain forests of the Middle Ebro River (NE Spain) was examined at patch and landscape scales along a three-step chronosequence defined according to the extent of flow regulation-induced hydrogeomorphic changes, with the ultimate purpose of producing baseline information to guide through management and restoration plans. At patch scale, a total of 6,891 stems within 39 plots were registered for species, diameter and health status. The stem density, size class distribution, canopy dieback and mortality were further compared by means of non-parametric tests. At landscape scale, the temporal evolution of the area occupied by forest stands of different ages in the floodplain along the chronosequence was evaluated using four sets of aerial photographs dated in 1927, 1957, 1981 and 2003. The within-patch structure of pioneer forests (<25–30 years old) was characterized by dense and healthy populations of pioneer species (Populus nigra, Salix alba and Tamarix spp.), but the area occupied by these forest types has progressively decreased (up to 37%) since the intensification of river regulation (ca. 1957). In contrast, non-pioneer forests (>25–30 years old) were characterized by declining and sparse P. nigra–S. alba–Tamarix spp. stands, where late-seral species such as Ulmus minor and Fraxinus angustifolia were frequent, but only as small-size stems. At landscape scale, these type of senescent forests have doubled their surface after river regulation was intensified. Populus alba only appeared in the oldest plots recorded (colonized before 1957), suggesting sexual regeneration failure during the last five decades, but usually as healthy and dense stands. Based on these findings, measures principally aimed at recovering some hydrogeomorphic dynamism are recommended to guarantee the self-sustainability of the floodplain forest ecosystem.     

Model-Based Assessment of Aspen Responses to Elk Herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park,USA

In Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) has been observed to be declining on elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) winter range for many decades. To support elk management decisions, the SAVANNA ecosystem model was adapted to explore interactions between elk herbivory and aspen dynamics. The simulated probability of successful vegetative regeneration for senescent aspen stands declines sharply when elk densities reach levels of 3–5 elk/km², depending on model assumptions for the seasonal duration of elk foraging activities. For aspen stands with a substantial component of younger trees, the simulated regeneration probability declines more continuously with increasing elk density, dropping below 50% from densities at 8–14 elk/km².At the landscape scale, simulated aspen regeneration probability under a scenario of extensive seasonal use was little affected by elk population level, when this level was above 300–600 elk (25%–50% current population) over the ca. 107 km² winter range. This was because elk distribution was highly aggregated, so that a high density of elk occupied certain areas, even at low population levels overall. At approximately current elk population levels (1000–1200 elk), only 35%–45% of senescent aspen stands are simulated as having at least a 90% probability of regeneration, nearly all of them located on the periphery of the winter range. Successful management for aspen persistence on core winter range will likely require some combination of elk population reduction, management of elk distribution, and fencing to protect aspen suckers from elk browsing.