Reserve and land prices with exploration under uncertainty

Arrow and Chang (J. Econom. Environ. Manag.9, 1–10 (1982) analyze an exploration-extraction model with uncertainty about the distribution of deposits. Reserve prices do not exhibit any rising trend when the unexplored land area is big but, in order to know what happens when the unexplored area is smaller, “a probabilistic analysis not yet performed” (ibid. p. 10) is required. Their conjecture of a rising trend at less than the discount rate is confirmed. However, land prices can be expected to grow faster than reserve prices, which helps discriminate between Arrow and Chang's, and other rationalizations of the failure of resource prices to rise at the discount rate.     

A note on discreteness and Jevonsian deterioration in non-renewable resource exploration

Arrow and Chang's model of mineral exploration can be extended naturally to allow for deterioration in land quality, including the possibility that some land will remain unexplored even if the resource is indispensable. Discreteness is central to the necessary and sufficient conditions.     

Carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels: Implications for second best policies

A carbon tax on fuel would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels. Since biofuel production competes for land with agricultural production, a carbon tax could increase land rents and raise food prices. This paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel consisting of gasoline and biofuel in the presence of a labor tax, with and without a biofuel subsidy. The market impacts of a carbon tax are also compared with that of a subsidy. Findings show that if a carbon tax increases biofuel demand, the tax interaction effect due to higher fuel prices is exacerbated by higher land rent and food prices and greater erosion of the carbon tax base. Thus, the second best optimal carbon tax for fuel is lower with biofuel in the fuel mix, especially if biofuel is subsidized.     

Evaluating losses in ecosystem services in nature reserves in Sichuan,China

Nature reserves have developed rapidly over the decades in China and play a significant role in the function of ecosystem services. The function of ecosystem services in nature reserves, however, has tended to decline in recent years due to natural hazards and human activities. Based on land use, the variation of ecosystem services value (ESV) during 2000–2010 in national nature reserves in Sichuan was evaluated. We analyzed the comprehensive effects of natural disasters and human activities on the decline of ESVs. Total ESV in the national nature reserves in Sichuan was approximately 2741.35 million US$ in 2000, 2616.81 million US$ in 2005, and 2499.06 million US$ in 2010, representing a decrease of 242.29 million US$, or 8.84%, in the decade. Forestland, grassland, wetland, and water bodies played vital roles in the function of ecosystem services, with an aggregated ESV of 99% of the total. The largest proportion of the total ESV was the protection of biodiversity at 48.6%. ESV of all land use types and single ecosystem services continued to decline during 2000–2010. A mechanism of adaptable risk prevention should be established, and unreasonable human activities should be avoided to protect ecosystems and to improve the functions of ecosystem services.     

Temporal changes in giant panda habitat connectivity across boundaries of Wolong Nature Reserve, China.

Global biodiversity loss is largely driven by human activities such as the conversion of natural to human-dominated landscapes. A popular approach to mitigating land cover change is the designation of protected areas (e.g., nature reserves). Nature reserves are traditionally perceived as strongholds of biodiversity conservation. However, many reserves are affected by land cover changes not only within their boundaries, but also in their surrounding areas. This study analyzed the changes in habitat for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) inside Wolong Nature Reserve, Sichuan, China, and in a 3-km buffer area outside its boundaries, through a time series of classified satellite imagery and field observations. Habitat connectivity between the inside and the outside of the reserve diminished between 1965 and 2001 because panda habitat was steadily lost both inside and outside the reserve. However, habitat connectivity slightly increased between 1997 and 2001 due to the stabilization of some panda habitat inside and outside the reserve. This stabilization most likely occurred as a response to changes in socioeconomic activities (e.g., shifts from agricultural to nonagricultural economies). Recently implemented government policies could further mitigate the impacts of land cover change on panda habitat. The results suggest that Wolong Nature Reserve, and perhaps other nature reserves in other parts of the world, cannot be managed as an isolated entity because habitat connectivity declines with land cover changes outside the reserve even if the area inside the reserve is well protected. The findings and approaches presented in this paper may also have important implications for the management of other nature reserves across the world.     

Pastoralism,nature conservation and ecological sustainability in Western Australia's southern shrubland rangelands

Two major issues are discussed in this paper. The first is the commitment of Federal and State Governments to the maintenance of biodiversity and nature conservation through their endorsement of conservation strategies. Based on a rangeland biophysical resource inventory survey (Pringle et al., 1994) it is contended that existing nature conservation reserves are not representative of the biological diversity in the region. In 1990, less than 1% of the survey area was under nature reservation. Whilst 13 of 17 land types are present in reserves, most of the reserves consist of land types least suitable for pastoralism (but not necessarily lacking conservation value). The land types most subject to preferential grazing and most threatened from a nature conservation perspective are poorly (three types) or not (four types) represented, and certainly not replicated, in nature reserves of the survey area, which exceeds 100 000 km2. Of the 23 priority plant species for nature conservation occurring in the survey area, 21 are not known to occur in nature reserves. Nature conservation in the area needs to improve because of the unrepresentativeness of the existing nature reserves and the absence of numerous priority plant species for nature conservation from these areas. We should recognize that reservation is but one nature conservation strategy. Viewed as a land tenure issue, this paper presents a case for a more representative nature reserve system, and substantial changes in outlook towards off-reserve nature conservation. First, an integrated appraisal of findings from rangeland and biological surveys is required. Together they provide a strong foundation for nature conservation planning, from which a more representative nature reserve system can be planned. Given that off-reserve nature conservation values are still likely to be substantial, partly as a result of compromise with existing land uses, new approaches to land management, sensitive to these values, may be required.The second major issue concerns the success of maintaining regional biological diversity in the arid shrubland rangelands of Western Australia, which will be strongly influenced by the use of the semi-natural matrix of lands under pastoral management. In six suggested opportunities, this paper addresses how this use may be achieved. Central to the ideas is a regional approach in which all stakeholders can contribute to, and have ownership of, regional environmental management plans. This paper emphasizes the role that conservative pastoral management might be able to play and some approaches to encourage more widespread participation of pastoralists in nature conservation management.     

Effects of temperature on oxygen consumption,growth, and development of embryos and yolk-sac larvae of Siganus randalli (Pisces: Siganidae)

Eggs from laboratory spawnings of the coralreef fish Siganus randalli Woodland were incubated at two temperatures (27 and 30 °C). Eggs and larvae were sampled until larval starvation, while changes in oxygen consumption, growth, yolk utilization, and development were monitored. Oxygen consumption, which peaked at hatching, was higher for embryos incubated at 30 °C than at 27 °C. Rates of oxygen consumption (nl h^-1 individual^-1) at hatching were similar to those for other temperate and tropical species. Rates of oxygen consumption by yolk-sac larvae were highly variable, and these data suggest that larval oxygen consumption prior to yolk-sac absorption may not be significantly influenced by temperature. Rates of yolk depletion were higher for larvae at the higher temperature. After an initial rapid increase in length, length of larvae at 30 °C decreased with age. Egg size, egg weight, and maximum notochord length of larvae differed significantly between spawns. Age-specific oxygen consumption rates by the embryos varied between spawns, but regressions describing oxygen consumption as a function of age did not differ significantly. The initiation and completion of eye pigmentation were used as developmental markers to calculate the amount of yolk remaining for larvae at the different temperatures. Larvae maintained at 30 °C completed eye pigmentation approximately 3 h sooner than those maintained at 27 °C, but had less endogenous reserves. This finding indicates a trade-off between rapid development and efficient utilization of the endogenous reserves. The completion of eye pigmentation in larvae incubated at the higher temperature occurred at midnight and, depending on the amount of time that the larvae have to initiate feeding prior to the point-of-no-return, the timing of completion of eye pigmentation could influence larval survival.     

A model of mining and exploring for exhaustible resources

A model of extractive industries is developed, in which firms select the time-paths of exploration and extraction that maximize their present values. Two externalities unique to the exploration process are found to distort industry behavior. Industry behavior is simulated under conditions of competition, monopoly, and central management, and the effects of percentage depletion allowances and changes in the discount rate are observed. Monopolists overconserve the resource and hold excess reserves; competitors who enter mineral lands freely tend to overexplore and overextract; percentage depletion allowances decrease reserves; and higher discount rates reduce extraction in the long run.     

Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100 ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.     

Exploration,information, and regulation in an exhaustible mineral industry

The paper presents a model of exploration and production in an uncertain environment. Exploration provides a by-product of information that helps predict future finds more accurately. When this information is not equally valued (at the margin) by society and industry, socially inefficient levels of exploration are chosen by industry. In this event, government intervention may be warranted. A regulator could control future prices to encourage industry to select socially preferred levels of production and exploration. Alternatively, by making public varying amounts of exploration information, incentives to industry could be adjusted. Conditions where such regulation might yield sufficient gains to society to offset regulatory costs are considered.     

Mitigating the impact of oil‐palm monoculture on freshwater fishes in Southeast Asia

Anthropogenic land‐cover change is driving biodiversity loss worldwide. At the epicenter of this crisis lies Southeast Asia, where biodiversity‐rich forests are being converted to oil‐palm monocultures. As demand for palm oil increases, there is an urgent need to find strategies that maintain biodiversity in plantations. Previous studies found that retaining forest patches within plantations benefited some terrestrial taxa but not others. However, no study has focused on aquatic taxa such as fishes, despite their importance to human well‐being. We assessed the efficacy of forested riparian reserves in conserving freshwater fish biodiversity in oil‐palm monoculture by sampling stream fish communities in an oil‐palm plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Forested riparian reserves maintained preconversion local fish species richness and functional diversity. In contrast, local and total species richness, biomass, and functional diversity declined markedly in streams without riparian reserves. Mechanistically, riparian reserves appeared to increase local species richness by increasing leaf litter cover and maintaining coarse substrate. The loss of fishes specializing in leaf litter and coarse substrate decreased functional diversity and altered community composition in oil‐palm plantation streams that lacked riparian reserves. Thus, a land‐sharing strategy that incorporates the retention of forested riparian reserves may maintain the ecological integrity of fish communities in oil‐palm plantations. We urge policy makers and growers to make retention of riparian reserves in oil‐palm plantations standard practice, and we encourage palm‐oil purchasers to source only palm oil from plantations that employ this practice.     

Socioeconomic and indigeneity determinants of the consumption of non-timber forest products in Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park

ABSTRACT

Conservation of protected areas requires understanding of the consumption of forest products by rural people who live near protected forests. Socioeconomic factors such as a better education, income, land holding size, have been used to understand the patterns of consumption of non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Ethnicity, and especially whether or not people are indigenous to the forested areas, may also change consumption patterns. In this study we analysed the socioeconomic factors, indigeneity and geographical locations of people living in the buffer zones of Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park to better understand the key determinants of the consumption of NTFPs. We conducted 121 interviews with local households and found that indigeneity, education, family size, and the area of land used were statistically significant in explaining the amount of NTFPs consumed, while indigeneity and area of land used by local people had positive relationships with the diversity (measured in number of categories) of NTFPs consumed by local people. Interestingly, there were statistically significant effects of interactions between the area of land used and indigeneity on the consumption of NTFPs. The amount of these products is important for indigenous people who belong to the groups using small and medium areas of land. The medium land use group consumed significantly fewer categories of NTFPs than the small and large land use groups. This data may help local managers to develop interventions that support biodiversity conservation, promote sustainability of these important resources and improve the social welfare of marginal groups.     

Spatial-econometric analysis of attraction and repulsion of private conservation by public reserves

It is difficult for public agencies to make optimal reserve-site selections without knowing how new public reserves might influence the configuration of private conservation. Private land trusts protect much land in the USA, but little is known about how private groups respond to conservation decisions made by other conservation agents. To fill that gap, we analyze township-level spatial data on conservation in California, Illinois, and Massachusetts to explore relationships between the location of private and public conservation land. Using linear spatial-econometric models and Bayesian spatial probit models, we find evidence that private-protected acres are clustered together in space. In California, it appears that private land conservation is attracted towards places where the government has reserves. In Illinois and Massachusetts, however, it appears that private conservation shifts away from townships with government reserves due to a mixture of spatial repulsion and simple acreage displacement.     

Competing land uses and fossil fuel,and optimal energy conversion rates during the transition toward a green economy under a pollution stock constraint

We study the transition to a carbon-free economy in a model with a polluting non-renewable resource and a clean renewable resource. Transforming primary energy into ready-to-use energy services is costly and more efficient energy transformation rates are more costly to achieve. Renewable energy competes with food production for land and the food productivity of land can be improved at some cost. To avoid catastrophic climate damages, the pollution stock is mandated to stay below a given cap. When the economy is not constrained by the cap, the efficiency of energy transformation increases steadily until the transition toward the ultimate green economy; when renewable energy is exploited, its land use rises at the expense of food production; food productivity increases together with the land rent but food production drops; the food and energy prices increase and renewables substitute for non-renewable energy. During the constrained phase, the economy follows a constant path of prices, quantities, efficiency rates, food productivity and land rent, a phenomenon we call the ‘ceiling efficiency paradox’.     

Amenity changes,property values,and hedonic prices in a closed city

The effects of changes in amenity levels on the bid prices for land and on the marginal worth of an amenity are examined. The vehicle for analysis is a closed-city urban spatial model containing an explicit utility function and explicitly specified, spatial distributions of amenities. Issues addressed include the behavior of bid price (and property value) schedules in response to amenity changes; the impact of such changes on the utility of renters, under conditions of both identical and disparate tastes; the effect of amenity changes on the amenity's schedule of marginal worth; and the relation of such a schedule in a closed city to that in an open city.     

Lose some, save some: Obesity, automobile demand, and gasoline consumption

This paper examines the unexplored link between the prevalence of overweight and obesity and vehicle demand in the United States. Exploring annual sales data of new passenger vehicles at the model level in 48 U.S. counties from 1999 to 2005, we find that new vehicles demanded by consumers are less fuel-efficient on average as a larger share of people become overweight or obese. The OLS results show that a 10 percentage point increase in obesity and overweight reduces the average MPG of new vehicles demanded by 1.4 percent, an effect requiring a 12 cent increase in gasoline prices to counteract. The 2SLS results after controlling for possible endogeneity in overweight and obesity prevalence put those two numbers at 5 percent and 54 cent, respectively. These findings, robust to a variety of specifications, suggest that policies to reduce overweight and obesity can have additional benefits for energy security and the environment.     

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas,Not the Actors

Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human‐caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse‐filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context‐sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k‐means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land‐facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data‐rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.     

Variation in species losses from islands: artifacts, extirpation rates, or pre-fragmentation diversity?

Species are being lost from isolated reserves as predicted by ecological theory, prompting calls for larger reserves with higher species immigration rates. However, some large islands have lost a large proportion of their species, whereas some small islands have not lost any. Conservation efforts would be more efficient if the cause of such variation in the relationships among number of species lost, island size, and immigration rate were known. Observed species losses could be affected by the time since islands were isolated, species immigration rates, species extirpation rates, the pre-fragmentation diversity of the region relative to steady state, or overestimation of the pre-fragmentation diversity of islands. To test the last three hypotheses, I compared the intersection points of the island, intraprovincial, and interprovincial species-area relationships of terrestrial mammals from nine archipelagos of land-bridge islands and terrestrial habitat isolates. Species losses from three archipelagos were greater than expected due to reduced immigration rates alone, although I could not resolve if this was due to increased extirpation rates or overestimation of the pre-fragmentation diversity of the islands. Analysis of six archipelagos indicates that the diversity of mammals in two regions of North America is currently below steady state, probably due to the extinction of mammals and glacial retreat during the late Pleistocene. These results have direct implications for reserve planning. When provincial diversity is below steady state, some combinations of reserve size and species immigration rate will allow reserves to maintain their pre-isolation diversity. However, the diversity of provinces relative to steady state is likely to vary, so conservation of a given proportion of a province may not always conserve the same proportion of its species. I present a new species-area relationship for islands formed by fragmentation that replaces the parameter c (fitted constant) with a rotation point. Estimation of this rotation point will allow reserve planners to separate the effects of extirpation and immigration rates on species losses from islands, identify provinces that are below steady-state diversity, and estimate the combinations of reserve size and immigration rate that will prevent loss of species from reserves.     

Paternal investment in Poecilimon veluchianus bushcrickets: beneficial effects of nuptial feeding on offspring viability

In most bushcrickets, males transfer a large spermatophore during copulation that is afterwards consumed by the female. In some species this nuptial gift enhances offspring fitness and is therefore believed to function as paternal investment. To determine whether this is the case, I examined whether a male's own offspring benefit from spermatophore consumption in the bushcricket Poecilimon veluchianus. Females that consumed a spermatophore produced offspring with increased residuals of dry weight compared to females that were prevented from feeding on the spermatophore. This beneficial effect of spermatophore consumption occurred within the first 4 days after copulation. An increased dry weight indicates higher energy reserves because offspring dry weight correlates significantly with the lifespan of starved larvae and because spermatophore consumption increased the lifespan of starved offspring. During egg-laying, females apply a liquid substance to the soil that hardens and probably serves as protection for the egg clutch. The amount of this substance correlated with the number of eggs laid but did not differ between spermatophore treatments. In P. veluchianus, females mate frequently and there is last-male sperm precedence. The spermatophore thus only constitutes paternal investment when offspring produced before female remating benefit from spermatophore consumption. The dry weight of offspring increased during the first 4 days after spermatophore consumption and thus within the natural remating interval. This shows that the spermatophore has a paternal investment function in addition to its already known sperm protection function. Received: 15 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 11 October 1998     

Changes in physiology,structure and histochemistry occurring during the life-history of the sexually dimorphic isopod Dynamene bidentata (Crustacea: Peracarida)

The main food reserve of the intertidal hebivorous isopod Dynamene bidentata is lipid. Only algal-dwelling juveniles exhibit rhythms of oxygen consumption and defecation related to the tidal cycle. Males undergo the moult to maturity in the algal habitat and are, therefore, able to replenish their food reserves before entering upon a nonfeeding reproductive phase in empty barncle tests and erevices. Storage sites are increased at this moult so that males are able to survive on their food reserves for 2 breeding seasons. Females enter the reproductive habitat in the preovigerous stage and cease to feed. Lipid food reserves are largely used up in the formation of eggs and the final stage cuticle. Consequently, after the ovigerous moult, females are required to utilise lipoprotein-containing tissue as an energy source, and are able to survive only for a single breeding season. At the final moult, the posterior end of the male becomes highly thickened, rugose, and supplied with tegumental glands. These modifications are correlated with the need for self protection, and protection of the vulnerable females, against various physical and biological factors in the intertidal zone. There is a large increase in the dry weight of the brood over the period of incubation, and this is due mainly to the development of the exoskeleton at the last marsupial moult. The source of materials for the weight increase is attributable to a combination of factors, of which salt uptake probably plays the major part.