岷江上游刺旋花种群格局研究

在随机取样、解剖的基础上，对岷江上游灌丛优势种刺旋花（Convolvulustragacuthoiedes）建立种群静态生命表进行统计分析，以探索其在该地区特殊的生态学意义。结果表明：刺旋花种群的年龄结构为稳定发展型，存活曲线接近于decvyⅢ型；生活史中分别在1a和4～5a有两个死亡高峰；种群数量变化可用年龄结构模型Xx＝3．37·x－3．21（其中x表示年龄，Xx表示种群数量）来预测．X2检验法和区组样方方差法的格局分析结果都表明：刺旋花种群的分布格局随生境破碎程度和水分状况有很大差异，在不同样地分别趋向于随机分布和集群分布.     

农田生态系统四川短尾鼩种群能量动态的研究

用标志重捕法对四川短尾鼩种群数量及能量动态研究.结果表明：种群数量在每年6月和10月有两个高峰;四川短尾鼩的只采食量为4．212±0．86g／d,排泄量为2．18±0．12g／d身体器官热值为15．50kJ／g．食物热值为16．51kJ／g．生物量为214．38±59．96g／hm2,静止代谢率r（RMR）为22．909kJ／d,通过种群的能量为50．74kJ／d,次级生产量为169．25kJ／ha·d,生长效率（P／A）为0．097,本文用Odum的能路语言（energycircuitlanguape）,对四川短尾在生态系统中的能量地位进行了定位.     

立地条件对麻栎人工林碳储量的影响

在江淮山地丘陵区,通过样地调查,研究了坡向和w对麻栎（Quercusacutisima）人工林系统碳密度及其空间分布的影响。结果表明：阴坡（SHS）树木碳密度显著高于阳坡（sus）（P〈0．05）,Wt镕i《1低的立地（sus）树木碳密度显著高于w、高的（suss）（P〈0．05）。3种立地条件下麻栎各器官碳密度分配均为：干碳密度〉根碳密度〉枝碳密度〉叶碳密度。SUS和SHS林木分配较多的碳同化物供给树干生长,SUSS林木分配较多的碳同化物供给根系和枝的生长。凋落物碳密度在SUS和SHS之间没有显著差异（P〉0．05）,而SUSS则显著低于SUS和SHS（JPl〈0．05）。整个剖面（0～50cm）土壤有机碳密度SHS显著高于SUS和SUSS（P〈O．05）,SUS和SUSS之间没有显著差异（P〉0．05）。麻栎人工林系统总碳密度大小为SHS（146．9t·hm^2。）〉SUS（116．9t·hm^-2）〉SUSS（102．6t·hm^-2）,SHS显著高于其他2种立地条件（P〈0．05）,SUS与SUSS之间没有显著差异（P〉0．05）。3种立地条件下均为土壤碳密度〉树木碳密度〉凋落物碳密度,凋落物碳密度占林分总碳密度的比例仅为2．1％～3．6％。SUS和SHS土壤碳密度占林分总碳密度的比例低于SUSS,而树木碳密度占林分总碳密度比例则相反。由此可见,在江淮山丘区,w较低的阴坡（SHS）最有利于麻栎人工林碳储量的累积,相对于w、较高的立地（suss）,较低的Wf±镕6砾1（sus）更有利于树木碳储量的增加。     

湖南衡阳地区乙型肝炎患者HBV基因分型与血清HBVDNA水平研究

分析了湖南衡阳地区乙型肝炎病毒基因型分布特征,并探讨HBV各基因型与血清HBVDNA水平之间的关系．采用荧光定量PCR结合TaqmanMGB探针技术,对湖南衡阳地区164份乙型肝炎患者血清中的HBVDNA进行基因分型和定量检测．结果164例血清中,C型110A．（67．1％）,B、C型37人（22．3％）,B型8人（5．1％）,D型1人（0．6％）,A型1人（0．6％）．C型与B、C混合型在HBVDNA水平上存在显著差异（t=2．433,P〈0．05）,B、C混合型的HBVDNA水平明显高于C型．由此得出湖南衡阳地区HBV基因型以C型为主、B、C混合型次之,B型较少,D型、A型极少;B、C混合型患者的HBVDNA数量水平显著高于C型．表1．参11．     

冷应激对健康雏鸡某些内分泌活动的影响

以罗曼雄性雏鸡为试验对象,研究5d和10d龄健康雏鸡在低于正常饲养温度条件下,在一定时间内机体某些代谢激素的变化规律,结果表明：（1）5d龄雏鸡在两种低温情况下,血清三碘甲腺原氨酸（T3）变化显著,在冷应激最初几h内,T3先下降,至6h（15±1℃）和12h（10±1℃）又升高;血清四碘甲腺原氨酸（T4）变化不明显,在10±1℃情况下,在12h时显著降低;胰岛素（Ins）在两种低温情况下,均于2h时显著升高,而后呈波动性变化,（2）10d龄雏鸡在15℃±1℃条件下,T3在0．5～3h显著下降,至6h回升;T4在2h时显著升高（P＜0．05）;Ins在2h时升高（P＞0．05）,但3h时显著降低,而后又回升（3）血清皮质醇浓度均于冷应激后2h时有所升高,但差异不显著,而后呈波动性变化．     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

Cu^2＋对羽摇蚊幼虫（Chironomus plumosus）口器致畸作用和抗氧化酶活性的影响

采用静水生物测试法研究Cu^2＋对羽摇蚊幼虫的急性毒性效应。设定0．005、0．010和0．020g·L^-1 3个Cu^2＋浓度梯度进行急性暴露试验,分别于试验24、48、72和96h时测定摇蚊幼虫组织匀浆超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）、过氧化氢酶（CAT）和谷胱甘肽-S转移酶（GST）的活性。结果表明,Cu^2＋对羽摇蚊幼虫体组织CAT和SOD有明显影响,表现出剂量-效应关系。GST活性在暴露72h后表现为受诱导作用（P＜0．05）,并在96h时达到最高值（P＜0．01）。对经0．005、0．010和0．020g·L^-1 3个Cu^2＋浓度梯度刺激7d后摇蚊幼虫的口器致畸情况的研究结果表明,致畸率与Cu“暴露浓度之间呈显著正相关关系（P＜0．05）。     

油桐尺蠖病毒杀虫剂的药效分析

油桐尺蠖核型多角体病毒（BsSNPV）是一种高致病力的病毒株,生物测定nPIB（LC50）=1．657×104mL．经过全国7个省20多个单位联合试验,生物统计结果表明：BsSNPV防治第1代油桐尺蠖虫口下降率为97．2％;防治第2代油桐尺蠖虫口下降宰为93．97％;F测验其t值为0．184,小于理论t0．05（29）＝2．045．优于敌百虫、DDVP、辛硫磷和BT等农药是一种杀虫效果稳定、使用安全、经济有效的生物杀虫剂．     

天山云杉的种群动态

选择我国新疆境内天山山脉从西到东处于不同经度位置5个地区(昭苏、巩留、乌苏、乌鲁木齐和哈密)的天山云杉林进行垂直样带调查,采用静态生命表法,分析5个地区天山云杉种群的存活曲线和死亡率曲线,为天山云杉种群数量统计和生态保护提供依据.结果表明:其存活曲线为DeeveyⅡ型,表明天山云杉种群处于动态稳定状态;5个地区天山云杉种群均有两个死亡率曲线高峰,死亡高峰主要出现在幼年时期、近成熟前期、成年阶段和老年期.种群的死亡强度和死亡高峰在时间格局上各地区有明显的差异.图2表6参31     

井冈山两种典型森林土壤有机碳密度及其影响因素的比较

森林土壤有机碳是土壤有机碳库的重要组成部分,研究森林土壤有机碳及其影响因素对于应对气候变化具有非常重要意义。以井冈山自然保护区两种典型森林类型（常绿阔叶林和人工杉木林）为研究对象,各选取12个样地,对比分析了两种森林土壤有机碳密度的垂直分布特征以及与年均温、年降雨量之间的相关性。结果表明：①常绿阔叶林0-100cm层平均土壤有机碳密度为（25．65±3,27）kg-^2,大于人工杉木林0-100cm层平均土壤有机碳密度为（20．37±3．37）kg·m^2;②常绿阔叶林和人工杉木林土壤有机碳密度均随土壤深度的增加显著减少;③常绿阔叶林与人工杉木林土壤有机碳密度随年均温的变化趋势差异较明显,常绿阔叶林0-100cm层土壤有机碳密度随年均温的上升呈显著增加趋势（P〈0．05）,而人工杉木林随年均温的上升先减小后增加再减小,且变化趋势显著（P〈0．05）;④常绿阔叶林与人工杉木林土壤有机碳密度随年降雨量的变化趋势差异亦明显,常绿阔叶林0-100cm层土壤有机碳密度随年降雨量的增加呈显著减小趋势（P〈O．05）,而人工杉木林随年降雨量的增加先增加后减少再增加,且变化趋势极显著（P〈0．005）;⑤森林土壤有机碳质量分数与土壤容重呈极显著负相关（P〈0．0001）。     

宁夏新垦区昆虫群落生态演替及有害种预警系统研究

以宁夏中宁县长山头、大战场（荒漠半荒漠）、灵武市狼皮子梁（沙漠）、青铜峡市渠口农场（草原化荒漠）３类垦前环境及其垦后不同耕作年限（１－１５ａ）农田昆虫群落演替进行了系统调查与研究,事理鉴定出昆虫１１目７９科２０４种,按其分布和种群动态变化划分为原生性种类、共生性种类、继生性种类和迁入性种类４个生态型类群。在此基础上研究了不同目、不同营养型类群和不同生态型类群昆虫多样性变化及时间系列演替,发现随着荒     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

松嫩草地羊草克隆构型特征在不同种群密度下的可塑性

对不同密度羊草(Leymuschinensis)种群的克隆构型特征进行了调查,比较在资源水平相对一致时,羊草克隆构型特征,如根茎节间长度、间隔子长度、分枝距离和分枝角度,对种群密度变化的可塑性.结果表明:随着种群密度增加,羊草根茎节间长度和间隔子长度逐渐减小,分枝角度增大,且分枝角度在不同密度间差异显著.分枝角度的频率分布格局在不同密度间也存在显著差异,种群密度高时,羊草根茎具有更多的大分枝角.此外,羊草根茎节间长度、间隔子长度和分枝角度与其种群密度具有较强的冥函数关系.羊草根茎克隆特征在不同密度间具有较强的可塑性,当种群密度低时,羊草克隆特征更趋于“游击型”;随着种群密度的增加,其“游击型”特征减弱. 图2表2参19     

Development of machine learning multi-city model for municipal solid waste generation prediction

● A database of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in China was established. ● An accurate MSW generation prediction model (WGMod) was constructed. ● Key factors affecting MSW generation were identified. ● MSW trends generation in Beijing and Shenzhen in the near future are projected. Integrated management of municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major environmental challenge encountered by many countries. To support waste treatment/management and national macroeconomic policy development, it is essential to develop a prediction model. With this motivation, a database of MSW generation and feature variables covering 130 cities across China is constructed. Based on the database, advanced machine learning (gradient boost regression tree) algorithm is adopted to build the waste generation prediction model, i.e., WGMod. In the model development process, the main influencing factors on MSW generation are identified by weight analysis. The selected key influencing factors are annual precipitation, population density and annual mean temperature with the weights of 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively. The WGMod shows good performance with R² = 0.939. Model prediction on MSW generation in Beijing and Shenzhen indicates that waste generation in Beijing would increase gradually in the next 3–5 years, while that in Shenzhen would grow rapidly in the next 3 years. The difference between the two is predominately driven by the different trends of population growth.     

Incorporating natural enemies in an economic threshold for dynamically optimal pest management

The control of pests by their natural enemies represents an important regulating ecosystem service that helps maintain the stability of crop ecosystems. These services, however, are often ignored in pest management decision making. In addition, the use of broad-spectrum insecticides can damage the populations of natural enemies, reducing the cost-effectiveness of insecticide investment if unaccounted for in treatment decisions.The existing literature on modeling of biological control of insect pests has generally focused on simulations of the population dynamics of pest and natural enemy species and the processes underlying pest control. But agriculture is a managed ecosystem where predator–prey relationships are heavily influenced by human managers. In modeling managerial choices, this study develops an intra-seasonal dynamic bioeconomic optimization model for insecticide-based pest management that explicitly takes into account both the biological control effect of natural enemies on pest density and the nontarget mortality effect of insecticides on the level of natural pest control supplied. The model captures predator–prey interactions, linking them to crop growth and yield damage functions, which in turn are evaluated in a dynamic optimization framework. We introduce a new decision rule for judicious insecticide decisions using a natural enemy-adjusted economic threshold. This threshold represents the pest population density at which insecticide control becomes optimal in spite of the opportunity cost of injury to natural enemies of the target pest. Using field data from Michigan, the model is applied to the case of soybean aphid (Aphis glycines, Matsumura), a recent invasive pest of soybean (Glycine max), whose management is of both economic and environmental importance to the North Central region of the United States. As illustrated by the numerical examples, such natural enemy-adjusted threshold is likely to lead to fewer recommendations for insecticide use than naïve models that ignore natural enemies, resulting in less insecticide use, while maintaining profitability for farmers that rely on chemical pest control methods.The bioeconomic model developed in this study can be used to conduct a wide variety of analyses such as identifying dynamically optimal spray strategies and estimating the implied economic value of natural control services. Furthermore, with the incorporation of inter-year carry-over factors, such as overwintering of pests and natural enemies, the current model can contribute to building multi-year models for studying long-term pest management.     

Relative Contributions of Sampling Error in Initial Population Size and Vital Rates to Outcomes of Population Viability Analysis

Abstract:  We evaluated the relative contributions of sampling error (randomly chosen standard errors applied as 0–30% of parameter estimates) in initial population size and vital rates (survival and reproduction) to the outcome of a simulated population viability analysis for grizzly bears (  Ursus arctos ). Error in initial population size accounted for the largest source of variation (model II analysis of variance, F _25,5= 10.8, p = 0.00001) in simulation outcomes, explaining 60.5% of the variance. In contrast, error in vital rates contributed little to simulation outcomes ( F _25,5= 0.61, p = 0.70), accounting for only 2.4% of model variation. Reduced global variation in vital rates, as a result of independent random sampling of annual deviates for each parameter, likely contributed to the results. Errors in estimates of initial population size, if ignored in PVA, have the potential to leave managers with estimates of population persistence that are of little value for making management decisions.     

汉江上游不同林龄麻栎林枯落物的水文功能评价

麻栎林普遍存在于汉江上游,其涵养水源能力的发挥对维持汉江上游流域生态平衡具有重要的作用.于2020年12月对汉江上游天柱山3个不同林龄(15 a、25 a、33 a)的麻栎林样地进行了枯落物厚度和蓄积量调查,利用浸泡法测定了枯落物各水文功能指标,运用熵权法对3个林龄麻栎林枯落物的水源涵养能力进行了综合评价.结果表明:麻...     

运用灰色系统理论对广州市环境噪声污染的原因进行分析

运用灰色系统关联度的分析方法，对广州市环境污染的原因进行分析，结果显示：影响广州市环境噪声的因素中，占主要地位的是城市机动车数量，其次是人口密度。     

A Population Viability Analysis for African Elephant (Loxodonta africana): How Big Should Reserves Be?

We present an age-structured, density-dependent model of elephant population dynamics in a fluctuating environment, drawing primarily upon the life history parameters obtained from studies in semi-arid land at Tsavo National Park, Kenya. Density regulation occurs by changes in the age of first reproduction and calving interval. We model environmental stochasticity with drought events affecting sex- and age-specific survivorships. Results indicate a maximum population growth rate of 3% per year and an equilibrium elephant density of 3.1/mile². Analysis of the demographic results and their sensitivity to changes in juvenile survivorship and drought frequencies, supported by genetic considerations, suggests that in semi-arid regions a minimum reserve size of 1000 mile² is necessary to attain a 99% probability of population persistence for 1000 years. The effect of age-independent culling on population viability is also analyzed.