REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: In the San Joaquin River Basin, California, a realtime water quality forecasting model was developed to help improve the management of saline agricultural and wetland drainage to meet water quality objectives. Predicted salt loads from the water quality forecasting model, SJRIODAY, were consistently within ± 11 percent of actual, within ± 14 percent for seven-day forecasts, and within ± 26 percent for 14-day forecasts for the 16- month trial period. When the 48 days dominated by rainfall/runoff events were eliminated from the data set, the error bar decreased to ± 9 percent for the model and ± 11 percent and ± 17 percent for the seven-day and 14-day forecasts, respectively. Constraints on the use of the model for salinity management on the San Joaquin River include the number of entities that control or influence water quality and the lack of a centralized authority to direct their activities. The lack of real-time monitoring sensors for other primary constituents of concern, such as selenium and boron, limits the application of the model to salinity at the present time. A case study describes wetland drainage releases scheduled to coincide with high river flows and significant river assimilative capacity for salt loads.     

The effect of flow path and mixing layer on phosphorus release: physical mechanisms and temperature effects

Soil phosphorus (P) concentrations typically are greater in surface soils compared with subsurface soils. Surface soils have a greater chance to interact with runoff leading to P transport to streams. The thin surface layer where P concentrates is referred to as the mixing layer denoting where water and chemicals mix during transport. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of hydrologic flow paths on soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loss at two temperatures. Laboratory flumes were built to simulate infiltration, return flow, saturation excess, and interflow, and subsequent interaction with the mixing layer. The sandy loam soil in the flumes was kept at saturation throughout all experiments, so that biochemical effects were normalized. Flow through the flumes was maintained at 3.6 mm/h for 24 to 99 h (at 6 and 25 degrees C) with water entering and exiting the flumes at different ports (to simulate different flow paths) or as low intensity rainfall. Experiments were performed with and without an artificially created P-enriched surface layer (5 mm thick, total P increased from 1010 mg/kg in the original soil to 2310 mg/kg by addition of dissolved phosphate). Results indicated that (i) SRP release was greater in soil with a mixing layer than in soil without a mixing layer; (ii) SRP release was greater during experiments at 25 degrees C than at 6 degrees C; (iii) at 25 degrees C, SRP release was greatest when water traversed the mixing layer in the upward direction (i.e., in return flow), and by flow parallel to the mixing layer (i.e., surface runoff); and (iv) at 6 degrees C, SRP release in subsurface flow following rainfall was slightly greater than in return flow and infiltration. Our results confirmed the presence of a variable, temperature-dependent desorption process when runoff water interacted with the mixing layer. Our findings have important implications for how different water flow paths in and over the soil interact with P in the soil, and what the ultimate concentration will be in runoff and interflow.     

CONNECTING GROUND WATER INFLUXES WITH FISH SPECIES DIVERSITY IN AN URBANIZED WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Valley Creek watershed is a small stream system that feeds the Schuylkill River near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The watershed is highly urbanized, including over 17 percent impervious surface cover (ISC) by area. Imperviousness in a watershed has been linked to fish community structure and integrity. Generally, above 10 to 12 percent ISC there is marked decline in fish assemblages with fish being absent above 25 percent ISC. This study quantifies the importance of ground water in maintaining fish species diversity in subbasins with over 30 percent ISC. Valley Creek contains an atypical fish assemblage in that the majority of the fish are warm‐water species, and the stream supports naturally reproducing brown trout, which were introduced and stocked from the early 1900s to 1985. Fish communities were quantified at 13 stations throughout the watershed, and Simpson's species diversity index was calculated. One hundred and nine springs were located, and their flow rates measured. A cross covariance analysis between Simpson's species diversity index and spring flow rates upstream of fish stations was performed to quantify the spatial correlation between these two variables. The correlation was found to be highest at lag distances up to about 400 m and drop off significantly beyond lag distances of about 800 m.     

JUVENILE BLUEBACK HERRING (ALOSA AESTIVALIS) SURVIVAL VIA TURBINE AND SPILLWAY1

ABSTRACT: The 48 h survival of emigrating juvenile blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) was estimated at 96 ± 6.7 percent in passage through a Kaplan-type turbine and at 88.3 ± 10.7 percent (90 percent confidence interval) over a spillway (3.7 m high and spillage of 1.2 m³/s) of a low-head hydro darn (8.3 m). These results suggest that diversion of juvenile alosids over spillways may not be assumed to be a totally benign strategy without obtaining site-specific data. A remarkable similarity in survival rates of fish observed through turbine routes in this study and others suggests that these trends may be common. However, due to a lack of sufficient data, such a conclusion cannot be made for survival over spillways.     

PERFORMANCE VARIATIONS OF COD AND NITROGEN REMOVAL BY VEGETATED SUBMERGED BED WETLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Vegetated submerged bed wetlands can supplement treatment of onsite wastewater systems. This study evaluated vegetation, media, and seasonal impacts on system performance in six meso scale rock plant filters with and without narrow leaf cattails (Typha augustifolia). Daily chemical oxygen demand (COD) reductions in planted cells averaged 85 percent and weekly total nitrogen (TN) reductions averaged 50 percent. Planted cells had 17 percent greater COD reduction and 76 percent greater TN reduction than unplanted cells, both significant differences. Media type affected COD reduction, particularly in unplanted cells. COD treatment in planted cells was highest for fine crushed limestone (87±13 percent) and least variable for coarse river gravel (85±11 percent). No significant difference in TN reduction was observed for different media types (48 to 51 percent range). Seasonal influences on treatment included a significant decrease during late fall and early spring and a significant increase with temperature. After a step increase in organic loading, treatment efficiency decreased sharply but returned to prior levels after an adaptation period of about one month. Planted cells not only exhibited higher treatment efficiency but also had a retarded organic matter breakthrough, appearing after three to seven times the period for a bromide tracer. This supports a hypothesis that retardation of contaminant movement through the treatment cells results in enhanced removal. These results support the use of rock plant filters, but demonstrate the need to account for performance variations in system design. (KEY TERMS: constructed wetlands; seasonal effects; subsurface flow; Typha augustifolia; onsite wastewater treatment; water quality.)     

QUANTIFICATION OF THE WATER BUDGET AND NUTRIENT LOADING IN A SMALL PEATLAND1

ABSTRACT: Few water budgets exist for specific types of wetlands such as peatlands, even though such information provides the basis from which to investigate linkages between wetlands and upland ecosystems. In this study, we first determined the water budget and then estimated nutrient loading from an upland farm field into a 1.5 ha, kettle-block peatland. The wetland contains highly anisotropic peat and has no distinct, active layer of groundwater flow. We estimated the depth of the active layer using Fick's law of diffusion and quantified groundwater flow using a chemical mass balance model. Evapotranspiration was determined using MORECS, a semi-physical model based on the Penman-Monteith approach. Precipitation and surface outflow were measured using physical means. Groundwater provided the major inflow, 84 percent (44,418 m³) in 1993 and 88 percent (68,311 m³) in 1994. Surface outflow represented 54 percent (28,763 m³) of total outflows in 1993 and 48 percent (37,078 m³) in 1994. A comparison of several published water budgets for wetlands and lakes showed that error estimates for hydrologic components in this study are well within the range of error estimates calculated in other studies. Groundwater inflow estimates and nutrient concentrations of three springs were used to estimate agricultural nutrient loading to the site. During the study period, nutrient loading into the peatland via groundwater discharge averaged 24.74 kg K ha^-1, 1.83 kg total inorganic P ha^d, and 21.81 kg NO₃-N ha^-1.     

CARBON CONTENT OF SEDIMENTS OF SMALL RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Carbon content was measured in sediments deposited in 58 small reservoirs across the United States. Reservoirs varied from 0.2 to 4000 km2 in surface area. The carbon content of sediment ranged from 0.3 to 5.6 percent, with a mean of 1.9 ± 1.1 percent. No significant differences between the soil and sediment carbon content were found using a paired t-test or ANOVA. The carbon content of sediments in reservoirs was similar to the carbon content of surface soils (0–10 cm) in the watershed, except in watersheds with shrub or steppe (desert) vegetation. Based on the sediment accumulation rates measured in each reservoir, the calculated organic carbon accumulation rates among reservoirs ranged from 26 to 3700 gC m^-2yr^-1, with a mean of 675 ± 739 gC m^-2yr^-1. The carbon content and accumulation rates were highest in sediments from grassland watersheds. High variability was found in carbon content, carbon accumulation, and sediment accumulation rates due to individual watershed and reservoir characteristics rather than to any broad physiographic patterns. The carbon accumulation rates in these reservoir sediments indicate that reservoir sediments could be a significant sink for organic carbon.     

EXPORT COEFFICIENT MODELING TO ASSESS PHOSPHORUS LOADING IN AN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: An export coefficient modeling approach was used to assess the influence of land use on phosphorus loading to a Southern Ontario stream. A model was constructed for the 1995–1996 water year and calibrated within ± 3 percent of the observed mean concentration of total phosphorus. It was found that runoff from urban areas contributed most to the loading of phosphorus to the stream. When the model was assessed by running it for the 1977–1978 water year, using water quality and land use data collected independently, agreement within ± 7 percent was obtained. The model was then used to forecast the impact of future urban development proposed for the watershed, in terms of phosphorus loading, and to evaluate the reduction in loading resulting from several urban best management practices (BMP). It was determined that phosphorus removal will have to be applied to all the urban runoff from the watershed to appreciably reduce stream phosphorus concentration. Of the BMP designs assessed, an infiltration pond system resulted in the greatest phosphorus load reduction, 50 percent from the 1995–1996 baseline.     

STREAM NITRATE-N LOADS IN RELATION TO VARIATIONS IN ANNUAL AND SEASONAL RUNOFF REGIMES1

ABSTRACT: The calculation of stream nutrient loads from a sampling period of one year or, at most, a few years may provide an inaccurate estimate of average seasonal or annual loads due to considerable year-to-year variations in hydrological regime. The number of years of record required to give a reliable estimate of long-term average NO₃-N loads was analyzed for E. Duffin Creek and the Nottawasaga River in Ontario, Canada. Nitrate load rating relationships were used in combination with a continuous stream discharge record for 22 years (E. Duffin Creek) and 34 years (Nottawasaga River) to simulate long-term seasonal and annual variation in NO₃.N loads. The errors involved in calculating average loads were examined by comparing the loads derived from sampling periods of one or more consecutive years duration with the estimated long-term average load for the two rivers. Annual NO₃-N loads for a single year deviated from the long-term average load by ± 20 to 53 percent in 8 out of 22 years in E. Duffin Creek and in 13 of 34 years in the Nottawasaga River. Six consecutive years of record would be required for both rivers to ensure that an error of > ± 20 percent would occur in only 5 percent of these observation periods. February-April NO₃-N loads for a single year could deviate by up to +90 percent or -61 percent from the long-term average spring period load for the two rivers. A sampling period of at least 6–7 years would be needed to estimate average NO₃-N loads for the spring runoff season with an error <± 20 percent.     

Understanding the impact of waste disposal sites on soil quality for agricultural production: A case study of the Kiteezi landfill,Uganda

Leachate from waste disposal sites (WDS) can significantly affect the soil physical, chemical and biological qualities, reducing soil health and agricultural productivity. However, there is a paucity of data on soil quality for understanding soil health impact due to WDS in Uganda. This study's aim was to understand, using the Kiteezi landfill site, how WDS impact soil properties. Soil samples were collected over 4 months in and around the landfill from three locations, and the soil quality data of the nearby area were used as baseline data for assessing the impact on soil due to WDS in the area. There were significant increases in the concentration of all studied parameters at the landfill except total N. The concentrations of ammonium (14.84 ± 1.76 mg/kg), nitrate (127.96 ± 18.36 mg/kg), and pH (7.8) were above the optimum levels. The levels of available P (181.4 ± 28.9 mg/kg) and exchangeable bases; K (2.23 ± 0.24 mg/kg), Na (1.17 ± 0.14 mg/kg), Mg (3.35 ± 0.3 mg/kg) and Ca (14 ± 1.1 mg/kg) cmol (+)/kg were optimal for plant growth. The calculated CEC of 20.75 cmol (+)/kg) showed that soils have a good potential to supply plant nutrients. Heavy metal levels were still below the permissible limit. Hence, the study shows that although WDS may contribute to the increase of soil fertility, they can potentially reduce the overall productivity of soil by increasing nutrient levels beyond optimum levels.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF TWO GLACIATED WATERSHEDS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA1

ABSTRACT: A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed stream-flow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 × 10⁶ m³ and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 × 10⁶ m³ (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m³/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.     

HYDROLOGY OF A SMALL IMPOUNDMENT AND WATERSHED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA1

ABSTRACT: West Bitter Creek floodwater retarding structure site 3 in South Central Oklahoma was instrumented and records obtained and analyzed to obtain information concerning an impoundment water budget that is useful to landowners and designers of these impoundments. On-site loss of water from the impoundment was only 17 percent of the inflow during three years when the annual precipitation averaged 26 inches and the annual inflow averaged 1.4 inches. Runoff from an eroded area with no farm ponds was about 70 percent greater per unit area than from a portion of the watershed where 71 percent of the drainage area was controlled by farm ponds. A previous study indicated, however, that the ponds were reducing runoff only 13 percent. Loss of top soil increases runoff considerably. Only 24 percent of the total runoff into the impoundment was base flow. The flow rate into the impoundment was less than 0.05 cfs 70 percent of the time, and the inflow rate exceeded 10 cfs only 1 percent of the time. SCS runoff curve numbers varied between 57 and 96 for the impoundment watershed with an inverse relation between precipitation amount and curve number apprently caused by partial area runoff from impervious and semi-impervious areas. A comparison of measured event runoff versus event runoff computed by the SCS curve numbers gave an r² of only 0.44. However, the total computed surface runoff for eight years of record was less than 1 percent below the measured runoff which indicated the curve number method was a good tool for predicting long term runoff for the watershed.     

UNCERTAINTIES IN ESTIMATING THE WATER BALANCE OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of hydrologic methodology used in a number of water balance studies of lakes in the United States shows that most of these studies calculate one or more terms of the budget as the residual. A literature review was made of studies in which the primary purpose was error analysis of hydrologic measurement and interpretation. Estimates of precipitation can have a wide range of error, depending on the gage placement, gage spacing, and areal averaging technique. Errors in measurement of individual storms can be as high as 75 percent. Errors in short term averages are commonly in the 15-30 percent range, but decrease to about 5 percent or less for annual estimates. Errors in estimates of evaporation can also vary widely depending on instrumentation and methodology. The energy budget is the most accurate method of calculating evaporation; errors are in the 10–15 percent range. If pans are used that are located a distance from the lake of interest, errors can be considerable. Annual pan-to-lake coefficients should not be used for monthly estimates of evaporation because they differ from the commonly used coefficient of 0.7 by more than 100 percent. Errors in estimates of stream discharge are often considered to be within 5 percent. If the measuring section, type of flow profile, and other considerations, such as stage discharge relationship, are less than ideal errors in estimates of stream discharge can be considerably greater than 5 percent. Errors in estimating overland (nonchannelized) flow have not been evaluated, and in most lake studies this component is not mentioned. Comparison of several lake water balances in which the risdual consists solely of errors in measurement, shows that such a residual, if interpreted as ground water, can differ from an independent estimate of ground water by more than 100 percent.     

WATER QUALITY MODEL OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY AS AFFECTED BY SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF INPUT DATA1

ABSTRACT: Resolution of the input GIS data used to parameterize distributed‐parameter hydrologic/water quality models may affect uncertainty in model outputs and impact the subsequent application of model results in watershed management. In this study we evaluated the impact of varying spatial resolutions of DEM, land use, and soil data (30 × 30 m, 100 × 100 m, 150 × 150 m, 200 × 200 m, 300 × 300 m, 500 × 500 m, and 1,000 × 1,000 m) on the uncertainty of SWAT predicted flow, sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP transport. Inputs included measured hydrologic, meteorological, and watershed characteristics as well as water quality data from the Moores Creek watershed in Washington County, Arkansas. The SWAT model output was most affected by input DEM data resolution. A coarser DEM data resolution resulted in decreased representation of watershed area and slope and increased slope length. Distribution of pasture, forest, and urban areas within the watershed was significantly affected at coarser resolution of land use and resulted in significant uncertainty in predicted sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP output. Soils data resolution had no significant effect on flow and NO₃‐N predictions; however, sediment was overpredicted by 26 percent, and TP was underpredicted by 26 percent at 1,000 m resolution. This may be due to change in relative distribution of various hydrologic soils groups (HSGs) in the watershed. Minimum resolution for input GIS data to achieve less than 10 percent model output error depended upon the output variable of interest. For flow, sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP predictions, minimum DEM data resolution should range from 30 to 300 m, whereas minimum land use and soils data resolution should range from 300 to 500 m.     

Nitrogen Removal by Stormwater Management Structures: A Data Synthesis

A comprehensive synthesis of data from empirically based published studies and a widely used stormwater best management practice (BMP) database were used to assess the variability in nitrogen (N) removal performance of urban stormwater ponds, wetlands, and swales and to identify factors that may explain this variability. While the data suggest that BMPs were generally effective on average, removal efficiencies of ammonium (NH₄), nitrate (NO₃), and total nitrogen (TN) were highly variable ranging from negative (i.e., BMPs acting as sources of N) to 100%. For example, removal of NO₃ varied from (median ±1 SD) ?15 ± 49% for dry ponds, 32 ± 120% for wet ponds, 58 ± 210% for wetlands, and 37 ± 29% for swales. Across the same BMP types, TN removal was 27 ± 24%, 40 ± 31%, 61 ± 30%, and 50 ± 29%. NH₄ removal was 9 ± 36%, 29 ± 72%, 31 ± 24%, and 45 ± 34%. BMP size, age, and location explained some of the variability. For example, small and shallow ponds and wetlands were more effective than larger, deeper ones in removing N. Despite well‐known intra‐annual variation in N fluxes, most measurements have been made over short time periods using concentrations, not flow‐weighted N fluxes. Urban N export is increasing in some areas as large storms become more frequent. Thus, accounting for the full range of BMP performance under such conditions is crucial. A select number of long‐term flux‐based BMP studies that rigorously measure rainfall, hydrology, and site conditions could improve BMP implementation.     

Phosphorus and sediment loss in a catchment with winter forage grazing of cropland by dairy cattle

The loss of phosphorus and sediment to surface waters can impair their quality. It was hypothesized that the practice of winter grazing dairy cattle on cropland of moderate slope (5-20%) would exacerbate the loss of P and suspended sediment (SS) from land to water. In a small (4.3 ha) catchment two flumes were installed, upstream and downstream of one field (about 2 ha) that had been cropped for 2 yr and grazed in winter (June-July) by dairy cattle. Flow proportional samples were taken and measured for dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), particulate phosphorus (PP), total phosphorus (TP), and SS. During the 2002 hydrologic year (March-February) loads of SS increased per hectare downstream (1449 kg ha(-1)) compared to upstream (880 kg ha(-1)). The same increase from upstream (873 kg ha(-1)) to downstream (969 kg ha(-1)) happened in 2003. However, while in 2003 TP increased downstream by 1.64 kg ha(-1) compared to upstream (0.24 kg ha(-1)), in 2002 an increase of only 0.006 kg ha(-1) at the downstream flume occurred compared to upstream (0.98 kg ha(-1)). Investigation of P transport pathways suggested that overland flow contributed <0.1 kg P ha(-1) to stream flow, 10 and 5% of TP load in 2002 and 2003, with the greater load in 2002 reflecting more rainfall in that year. The contribution to stream flow by subsurface flow was estimated at 0.3 kg P ha(-1). Stream bed sediments showed an increase in total P concentration in summer when no flow occurred due to the admission by the farmer of 10 cattle upstream of the cropped paddock in summer 2001-2002 and 20 cattle between the two flumes in 2003 to graze stream banks. This action was calculated to contribute via dung at least, the remaining P lost: about 0.5 kg P in 2002 and 1.0 kg P in 2003. Clearly, not allowing animals to "clear-up" stream banks is a priority if good surface water quality is to be achieved. Furthermore, compared to stock access the impact of winter grazing cropland on P losses was minimal, but SS load was increased by an average of 75%.     

Non-stationary electromagnetic field measurements accuracy improvement

Electromagnetic field (EMF) measurements, for labor safety and environment protection purposes, are performed in the near-field. Inaccuracy of the far-field EMF measurements oscillates around ±1 dB or bit worse; in the near-field measurements, errors at the level of ±6 dB must be sometimes accepted. In the case of non-stationary EMF measurements, their sense may be changed from quantitative to qualitative ones. In order to make it possible an estimation of the non-stationary EMF measurement accuracy, it is proposed new method of the meters calibration. The method is based upon a standard excitation with identical signal as the measured one. A set for the purpose includes a pulse generator (of frequency and pulse rating identical with the radiation source) and computer-controlled amplitude modulator that reflects the radiation pattern of an antenna (e.g. radar one) and its rotations. Contrary to calibration using monochromatic continuous wave (CW) excitation, proposed method should be repeated for any radiation source. The disadvantage is compensated by a possibility to estimate (additional) error of the method. Calculations show it at the level of 10%.     

MOBILITY AND AQUATIC TOXICITY OF COPPER IN AN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Abundant use of copper based products has resulted in increased violation of copper water quality criteria in runoff from urban storm water systems. The objectives of this work were to understand the mobility and toxicity of copper in an urban watershed and to apportion the amount of copper entering the freshwater receiving stream from different urban land covers using a mass balance approach. Sixteen rainfall events collected from the University of Connecticut study watershed between August 1998 and September 2000 were analyzed to assess copper flux in an urban storm water system. Mean flow weighted dissolved copper concentrations observed in the study for copper based architectural material runoff, pervious area runoff, impervious area runoff, and in the receiving stream were 1210 ± 840, 9 ± 3, 8 ± 2, and 14 ± 7 μg/L, respectively. Mean dissolved copper concentrations in the receiving stream exceeded Connecticut's water quality criteria. Despite exceeding the dissolved concentration based criteria, cupric ion concentrations at the system outlet remained below 0.05 μg/L for all storms analyzed, and no acute toxicity (using Daphnia pulex as the test organism) was measured in samples collected from the stream.     

EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASE FLOW OF SELECTED SOUTH-SHORE STREAMS,LONG ISLAND,NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: Hydrograph analysis of six streams on the south shore of Long Island indicates that eastward urbanization during the last three decades has significantly reduced base flow to streams. Before urbanization, roughly 95 percent of total annual stream flow on Long Island was base flow. In urbanized southwestern Nassau County, storm water sewerage, increased impervious surface area, and sanitary sewerage have reduced base flow to 20 percent of total stream flow. In an adjacent urbanized but unsewered area in southeastern Nassau County, base flow has decreased to 84 percent of total annual stream flow. In contrast, base flow in two streams in rural areas has remained virtually constant, averaging roughly 95 percent of total annual flow throughout the 1955-70 study period. Double-mass curve analysis of base flow as a percentage of total annual stream flow indicates that (1) changes in stream flow characteristics began in the early 1960's in the sewered area and in the late 1960's in the later urbanized, unsewered area, and (2) a new equilibrium has been established between the streams in the sewered area and the new hydrologic characteristics of their urbanized drainage basins.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL WATERSHED CALIBRATION1

ABSTRACT: This study tests the hypothesis that climatic data can be used to develop a watershed model so that stream flow changes following forest harvest can be determined. Measured independent variables were precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature, and concurrent relative humidity. Computed variables were humidity deficit, saturated vapor pressure, and ambient vapor pressure. These climatic variables were combined to compute a monthly evaporation index. Finally, the evaporation index and monthly precipitation were regressed with measured monthly stream flow and the monthly estimates of stream flow were combined for the hydrologic year. A regression of predicted versus measured annual stream flow had a standard error of 1.5 inches (within 6.1 percent of the measured value). When 10, 15, and 20 years of data were used to develop the regression equations, predicted minus measured stream flow for the last 7 years of record (1972–1978) were within 16.8, 11.5, and 9.7 percent of the measured mean, respectively. Although single watershed calibration can be used in special conditions, the paired watershed approach is expected to remain the preferred method for determining the effects of forest management on the water resource.