A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

/ A method is presented for estimating probable public costs resulting from damage caused by hurricanes, measured as local government expenditures approved for reimbursement under the Stafford Act Section 406 Public Assistance Program. The method employs a multivariate model developed through multiple regression analysis of an array of independent variables that measure meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical conditions related to the landfall of hurricanes within a local government jurisdiction. From the regression analysis we chose a log-log (base 10) model that explains 74% of the variance in the expenditure data using population and wind speed as predictors. We illustrate application of the method for a local jurisdiction-Lee County, Florida, USA. The results show that potential public costs range from $4.7 million for a category 1 hurricane with winds of 137 kilometers per hour (85 miles per hour) to $130 million for a category 5 hurricane with winds of 265 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour). Based on these figures, we estimate expected annual public costs of $2.3 million. These cost estimates: (1) provide useful guidance for anticipating the magnitude of the federal, state, and local expenditures that would be required for the array of possible hurricanes that could affect that jurisdiction; (2) allow policy makers to assess the implications of alternative federal and state policies for providing public assistance to jurisdictions that experience hurricane damage; and (3) provide information needed to develop a contingency fund or other financial mechanism for assuring that the community has sufficient funds available to meet its obligations. KEY WORDS: Hurricane; Public costs; Local government; Disaster recovery; Disaster response; Florida; Stafford Act     

Earthquake Planning for Government Continuity

/ The problem of assuring government operational continuity following earthquakes has been given little research attention. Recent earthquake experience has documented that government organizations without a public safety mission do incur damaged facilities and routinely see increases in public demands following an earthquake. Impediments to service delivery associated with such dam-ages can be minimized if agencies address earthquake plan elements likely to enhance postimpact functioning, including: the potential to relocate operations, protection for the workplace, possession of an organizational inventory, emergency instructions for employees, the ability to use volunteers, and communication capacity. Factors associated with the adoption of these plan elements were studied in one county government and its municipal county seat in the southwestern United States. A census of departments within these jurisdictions was asked to complete a questionnaire reporting the level of planning activity relative to each of these plan elements. It was found that the overall level of preparedness was low, but statistically significantly related to agency size, perceived risk, and information seeking. The implications of these findings underscore the potential for disruption to government service delivery and permit the identification of potential avenues for increasing levels of preparedness.KEY WORDS: Emergency planning; Earthquakes; Government preparedness     

Dissolved phosphorus export from an animal waste impacted in-stream wetland: response to tropical storm and hurricane disturbance

The ability of wetlands to retain P makes them an important landscape feature that buffers P movement. However, their P retention ability can be compromised through hydrologic disturbances caused by hurricanes and tropical storms (TS). This study had three objectives: (i) to determine the effects of hurricanes and TS on dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentrations and loads discharged from a Coastal Plain in-stream wetland (ISW); (ii) to evaluate shifts in P storage pools that would reflect P accretion/removal patterns; and (iii) to determine if relationships exist between storm characteristics with releases of DP and water volume. From January 1996 to October 1999, the ISW's outflow DP concentrations and flow volumes (Q) were measured and they were used to calculate DP mass export loads. In addition, the sediment total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were measured, and both the water column and sediment pore water DP concentrations were examined using passive samplers. In several instances, TS facilitated greater DP releases than a single hurricane event. The largest release of DP occurred in 1999 after Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene. The large differences in DP exports among the storms were explained by Q variations. Storm activity also caused changes in sediment pore water DP and sediment TP concentrations. This study revealed that some TS events caused higher DP releases than a single hurricane; however, multiple hurricanes delivering heavy precipitation totals significantly increased DP export.     

Evaluating environmental protection in post-Hurricane Katrina plans in Mississippi

Immediately following Hurricane Katrina, the Mississippi Governor's Commission for Recovery, Rebuilding and Renewal provided planning teams to work with coastal communities to prepare long-range rebuilding plans followed by further community-initiated plans. Eighteen months after Katrina, this paper examines the degree to which environmental protection has been incorporated into the long-range plans developed in Harrison County, Mississippi. This study finds that environmental protection has not been adequately integrated into the plans. It concludes by offering recommendations on how these communities can improve their plans relative to environmental protection measures as they move into their next phase of planning.     

Near-miss events,risk messages,and decision making

Decades of research have sought to understand how disaster preparedness decisions are made. We believe one understudied factor is the impact of near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane or terrorist attack) has some non-trivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), but the negative outcome is avoided largely by chance (e.g., at the last minute, the storm dissipates or the bomb fails to detonate). In the first of two experiments, we study reactions to a hurricane threat when participants are told about prior near-miss events. We find that people with information about a prior near-miss event that has no negative consequences are less likely to take protective measures than those with either no information or information about a prior near-miss event that has salient negative information. Similar results have been shown in prior research, but we seek to understand people’s reasoning for the different reactions. We examine the role of an individual’s risk propensity and general level of optimism as possible explanatory variables for the “near-miss” effect. We find risk propensity to be stable across conditions, whereas general optimism is influenced by the type of prior near-miss information, so that optimism mediates how near-miss information impacts protective decisions. People who experience a potentially hazardous near-miss but escape without obvious cues of damage will feel more optimistic and take less protective action. In the second study, we test messages about the hazard’s risk and examine the impact of these messages to offset the influence of near-misses. We end by discussing the implications of near-misses for risk communication.     

Women and biodiversity: The long journey from users to policy-makers

Although there has been a broad acknowledgment that women's local and traditional knowledge is fundamental to guarantee food security and conserve biological diversity, few women are represented at the managerial and decision‐making level of environmental movements and organizations. The United Nations, its agencies and agreements have long promoted the full and effective participation of women in decision‐making processes. So how can commitments contained in international agreements be translated into concrete actions? By using the case of the Convention on Biological Diversity, one of the key agreements adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, this article analyses how gender‐equitable initiatives tend to assume an ad hoc character with few governments effectively involving women in their sustainable development strategies. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the United Nations or its subsidiary bodies.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Understanding Social Complexity Within the Wildland–Urban Interface: A New Species of Human Habitation?

The lack of knowledge regarding social diversity in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) or an in-depth understanding of the ways people living there interact to address common problems is concerning, perhaps even dangerous, given that community action is necessary for successful wildland fire preparedness and natural resource management activities. In this article, we lay out the knowledge and preliminary case study evidence needed to begin systematically documenting the differing levels and types of adaptive capacity WUI communities have for addressing collective problems such as wildland fire hazard. In order to achieve this end, we draw from two theoretical perspectives encompassing humans' interactions with their environment, including (1) Kenneth Wilkinson's interactional approach to community, (2) and certain elements of place literature. We also present case study research on wildfire protection planning in two drastically different California communities to illustrate how social diversity influences adaptive capacity to deal with hazards such as wildland fire. These perspectives promote an image of the WUI not as a monolithic entity but a complex mosaic of communities with different needs and existing capacities for wildland fire and natural resource management.     

Outreach Programs,Peer Pressure,and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.     

Assessing the Effects of Nutrient Management in an Estuary Experiencing Climatic Change: The Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Eutrophication is a serious water quality problem in estuaries receiving increasing anthropogenic nutrient loads. Managers undertaking nutrient-reduction strategies aimed at controlling estuarine eutrophication are faced with the challenge that upstream freshwater segments often are phosphorus (P)-limited, whereas more saline downstream segments are nitrogen (N)-limited. Management also must consider climatic (hydrologic) variability, which affects nutrient delivery and processing. The interactive effects of selective nutrient input reductions and climatic perturbations were examined in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), North Carolina, a shallow estuary with more than a 30-year history of accelerated nutrient loading and water quality decline. The NRE also has experienced a recent increase in Atlantic hurricanes and record flooding, which has affected hydrology and nutrient loadings. The authors examined the water quality consequences of selective nutrient (P but not N) reductions in the 1980s, followed by N reductions in the 1990s and an increase in hurricane frequency since the mid-1990s. Selective P reductions decreased upstream phytoplankton blooms, but increased downstream phytoplankton biomass. Storms modified these trends. In particular, upstream annual N and P concentrations have decreased during the elevated hurricane period. Increased flushing and scouring from storms and flooding appear to have enhanced nutrient retention capabilities of the NRE watershed. From a management perspective, one cannot rely on largely unpredictable changes in storm frequency and intensity to negate anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and eutrophication. To control eutrophication along the hydrologically variable freshwater–marine continuum, N and P reductions should be applied adaptively to reflect point-source–dominated drought and non–point-source–dominated flood conditions.     

Official and folk flood warning systems: An assessment

Recent floods in West Bengal, India, focused public attention on the inadequacies of the flood warning system. This study examines some socioeconomic constraints on the communication of flood warning messages. It then looks at perceptions of, and responses by, villagers in a flood-prone region of West Bengal to official and folk flood warnings.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Place attachment and flood preparedness

Does place attachment and the consequent emotional connections and ties that people have with environments affect their preparedness for natural disasters, such as floods? This study took up this research question for the understudied geographical region of Orissa, India. In particular, investigation focused on three kinds of place attachment, viz. economic, genealogical, and religious. Contextualized scales for place attachment and flood preparedness were developed for a survey. Data were collected from 300 residents in flood prone areas. Validity and reliability of the scales were established. Overall, place attachment was found to significantly influence flood preparedness. Hierarchical regression analysis was performed to determine whether the three factors of place attachment influence flood preparedness. Controlling for confounding effects of age and family type, regression analysis revealed that people having genealogical and economic place attachment prepared for floods, but those with religious place attachment did not prepare for floods. The implications of these findings for future studies are described.     

Risk and resilience lessons from Venice

In the history of disasters in Venice, there are implications for modern times in terms of complex systems management and emerging threats, in particular from examples of risk management and resilience achieved by the Venetian state during outbreaks of the plague. In fourteenth century Venice, risk assessment the way we practice it today would fail to provide meaningful recommendations to reduce the casualty rate of the plague epidemic because the cause and transmission of the disease was not understood. Instead, a set of systemic actions across the social, economic, and transportation networks of the city taken by officials and doctors eventually slowed and arguably stopped the spread of the disease. These latter actions are an early example of what is now considered resilience management. Resilience management improves a complex system’s ability to prepare, absorb, recover, and adapt to unexpected threats and does so by address the capabilities at a system, rather than component, level. Resilience management can be a guide to addressing current issues of population growth and rising sea level in modern day Venice and across the globe. This paper calls for integration of resilience assessment in comprehensive risk and resilience management framework.     

The Role of Wetlands for Mitigating Economic Damage from Hurricanes

Coastal communities along the United States coast often experience significant economic damage resulting from the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. Research suggests that certain factors that affect economic damages are increasing the vulnerability of coastal communities. Population growth, which increases vulnerability by placing valuable lives and assets in the path of storms, is expected to increase. Climate change has the potential to cause more frequent and intense storms, and coastal wetland loss is contributing to the vulnerability of coastal populations. Wetlands conservation and restoration is often advocated for as a means of reducing the impacts of coastal storms. The relationship between wetlands and storm surge energy is understood relatively well in physical terms, but very little economic analysis has been conducted to estimate the degree to which wetlands reduce economic impacts. Using factor analysis, the relationships among coastal populations, wetlands, storm intensity, and economic damage are explored. The factor analysis suggests that wetland presence is associated with a reduction in economic damages from coastal storms. Factor score analysis suggests that the proportion of damage explained by wetland presence is smaller for more intense storms. These results are consistent with those found in the physical science literature and have potentially large consequences for how wetlands are used in risk reduction.     

Public perception of locally unwanted facilities in Hong Kong: implications for conflict resolution

This paper aims to investigate factors affecting public attitude towards the siting of locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) and to explore the possible strategies to resolve such conflicts. Three questionnaire surveys were undertaken in communities with different siting experiences and socio-economic profiles. Over 750 individuals were successfully interviewed in each study district. The three communities were found to share similar risk beliefs but show variations in the level of awareness of and response to LULUs. In communities with a disproportionate share of LULUs, many residents did not trust the government in handling LULU issues and thought that the siting process was unfair. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis show that people are likely to oppose the siting of a LULU in their community if they have a negative siting experience, do not perceive the need, accord a high risk to the facility and have a low level of trust in government. The resolution strategies preferred by the public are greater public participation and effective mitigation of risks and impacts, rather than provision of compensation and incentives. All these call for policy-makers to be sensitive to local concerns, engage the public in the process, communicate risks effectively and foster trust building.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.