Climate change and indigenous natural resource management: a review of socio-ecological interactions in the Alinytjara Wilurara NRM region

This article examines key socio-ecological interactions identified during a climate change vulnerability assessment in the Alinytjara Wilurara natural resources management (NRM) region of South Australia. The complex local socio-ecological interactions are highlighted to guide a response to the challenge of adapting to climate change within the region. Recognising several key desert drivers which perpetuate degraded socio-ecological systems, this article recommends that a range of strategies be employed simultaneously to enhance local environmental management in association with remote indigenous communities, including: linking people and NRM more closely; tracking funding but ensuring systems can withstand periods of limited financial support; developing cross-sectoral and cross-institutional links; empowering and engaging communities; communicating effectively; and actively supporting local and traditional environmental knowledge. Unless climate change adaptation responses within the region are conceptualised and enacted within the context of complex local socio-ecological systems, NRM will not improve and social vulnerability will increase.     

Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

Climate adaptation management and institutional erosion: insights from a major Canadian port

This paper performs an institutional analysis of the adaptation to climate change by ports, through a case study of the port of Vancouver, Canada. While previous literature has demonstrated the value of informal institutions for filling gaps left by formal institutions, the role of failed informal institutions has received less attention. Our analysis reveals how, in the case of an unprecedented challenge like climate adaptation, relying on informal institutions with less agency can actually erode the strength of existing institutions in a form of negative institutional plasticity. In this case, emerging polycentric governance was unsuccessful, unable to construct clearly demarcated responsibilities due to impedance by the path dependence of the current federalist system. The latter works well for traditional infrastructure investments with a closed pool of stakeholders, but not for ports where multiple scales of embeddedness, both horizontally and vertically, produce a collective action problem with no mechanism for resolution.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Climate change,adaptation and Eco-Art in Singapore

Eco-Art has recently emerged as a potential means to place emphasis on environmental issues such as climate change, recycling and the metabolism of the city experienced both materially and conceptually within local, regional and global contexts. Such art presents the possibility of shaping civic practices in arenas beyond those of traditional planning domains. Adopting a pragmatic approach, which recognises the contextual pluralism that exists in debates regarding climate change, this paper is interested in how Eco-Art projects encourage the re-imagining of urban spaces within the context of sustainability, and flows of materials and the recycling of plastic in art specifically.     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

Climate stability and behavioural change: the limitations of economic and regulatory instruments

Stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, as proposed by the 1992 Earth Summit, implies massive behavioural changes by firms and consumers. Case studies of three key sectors—domestic space heating, domestic appliances, and personal transport—suggest that neither economic instruments nor regulatory controls would, in themselves, be sufficient to bring about the necessary investment in energy efficient products and processes. Attention is focused on specific features of the UK economy which inhibit energy conservation, such as the price sensitive nature of UK markets for consumer durables and the pervasive influence of short‐termism on business calculations.     

Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Changing Human Landscapes Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for Climate Assessments

Climate change is a fundamental aspect of the Anthropocene. Climate assessments are frequently undertaken to evaluate climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Assessments are complex endeavors with numerous challenges. Five aspects of a climate assessment that can be particularly challenging are highlighted: choice of assessment strategy, incorporation of spatial linkages and interactions, the constraints of climate observations, interpretation of a climate projection ensemble, uncertainty associated with weather/climate dependency models, and consideration of landscape–climate influences. In addition, a climate assessment strategy that incorporates both traditional “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods is proposed for assessments of adaptation options at the local/regional scale. Uncertainties associated with climate observations and projections and with weather/climate dependency (i.e., response) models are incorporated into the assessment through the “top-down” component, and stakeholder knowledge and experience are included through the “bottom-up” component. Considerable further research is required to improve assessment strategies and the usefulness and usability of assessment findings. In particular, new methods are needed which better incorporate spatial linkages and interactions, yet maintain the fine grain detail needed for decision making at the local and regional scales. Also, new methods are needed which go beyond sensitivity analyses of the relative contribution of land use and land cover changes on local/regional climate to more explicitly consider landscape–climate interactions in the context of uncertain future climates. Assessment teams must clearly communicate the choices made when designing an assessment and recognize the implications of these choices on the interpretation and application of the assessment findings.     

Modeling nitrogen and water management effects in a wheat-maize double-cropping system

Excessive N and water use in agriculture causes environmental degradation and can potentially jeopardize the sustainability of the system. A field study was conducted from 2000 to 2002 to study the effects of four N treatments (0, 100, 200, and 300 kg N ha(-1) per crop) on a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system under 70 +/- 15% field capacity in the North China Plain (NCP). The root zone water quality model (RZWQM), with the crop estimation through resource and environment synthesis (CERES) plant growth modules incorporated, was evaluated for its simulation of crop production, soil water, and N leaching in the double cropping system. Soil water content, biomass, and grain yield were better simulated with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE, RMSE divided by mean observed value) from 0.11 to 0.15 than soil NO(3)-N and plant N uptake that had NRMSE from 0.19 to 0.43 across these treatments. The long-term simulation with historical weather data showed that, at 200 kg N ha(-1) per crop application rate, auto-irrigation triggered at 50% of the field capacity and recharged to 60% field capacity in the 0- to 50-cm soil profile were adequate for obtaining acceptable yield levels in this intensified double cropping system. Results also showed potential savings of more than 30% of the current N application rates per crop from 300 to 200 kg N ha(-1), which could reduce about 60% of the N leaching without compromising crop yields.     

Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Cyber first aid: proactive risk management and decision-making

Public and private organizations need a robust approach to prepare, respond, and recover from cyber-attacks. This perspective article will refer to such an approach as Cyber First AID—adaptable, integrated, and deliberate. Adaptable describes that one size does not fit all; Integrated means the effort is throughout the organization; and Deliberate describes plans that are reviewed periodically and practiced, in which all members of the organization know their respective roles and responsibilities. The article outlines a decision-making process for how to minimize the impacts of cyber threats, maintain stakeholder and customer confidence, and help organizations to adaptively manage and respond to cyber threats in rapidly changing cyber environments.     

The hazards of risk management

Summary Increasing application of the concept of risk raises several policy and management issues for environmental managers. Functionally, risk can be structured as risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. Each of these functional areas have complex technical issues associated with them that are often unfamiliar to the public.Dr Donald W. Floyd is an Assistant Professor in the School of Natural Resources at The Ohio State University. He specialises in natural resource/environmental policy, with an emphasis on conflict resolution.