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1.
随着干早区草场非平衡态理论的提出和发展,退化草场封育的时间、方式与草场恢复间的关系已成为目前研究的主要课题之一:作者选择完全封育、季节封育和未封育3种措施进行对半干早沙地草场的植被特征及其生物量进行比较研究,结果表明,在封育处理的年份中,不同封育措施(放牧压力)是决定植被差异的主要因子。完全封育区和季节封育区植物以一年生草本为主,在植物种数量、生物多样性上差异并不显著,未封育区植被则以多年生草本为主,且Simpson和Shannon多样性指数与前两者差异均显著;完全封育并未导致一些牲畜喜食植物种的完全消失,但一些饲用价值差的植物如平卧碱蓬等大量出现在完全封育的群落中,同时旱生和强旱生植物的比例明显增加。尽管3种措施地上部分总生物量差异并不显著,但各群落中主要植物种的地上部分生物量则存在这一定的差异,从3种措施植被的饲用价值来看,季节封育区植被的饲用价值较高,表明季节封育可以促进并提高草场的放牧利用价值。  相似文献   

2.
对南亚热带典型火烧草坡迹地和人工造桉林后的退化草坡土壤种子库进行了取样调查,采用种子萌发试验研究了这些不同处理的土壤种子库特征,结果表明:(1)火烧处理对土壤种子库有显著影响,具体表现为种子库储量减小、物种种类减少、优势种组成单一、物种多样性指数和地上植被相似性系数低、土壤种子库物种组成与地上植被物种组成差异显著;(2)种植桉树对土壤种子库储量、物种生活型分布、土壤种子库物种组成与地上植被物种组成差异均没有影响,但能增加草本物种种类;(3)火烧并种植桉树对土壤种子库的影响与火烧处理结果一致,能使土壤种子库中优势物种种子密度增加,但不能增加草本种类在种子库中的密度.该研究表明采用火烧处理有利于南亚热带退化草坡植被恢复;采用种桉树的方法短期内植被恢复的效果不明显;退化草坡的植被恢复需要适度的人为干预与调控.  相似文献   

3.
选择科尔沁沙地固定沙地、半流动沙地和流动沙地样地,研究沙地恢复过程中土壤种子库密度、组成及其与地上植被的关系。结果表明,(1)退化沙地恢复过程中,流动沙地、半流动沙地、固定沙地的土壤种子库平均密度(以单位面积有效种子数量表示,ind·m~(-2))分别为814、3 125和16 294 ind·m~(-2)。土壤种子库物种组成以一年生草本为主,多年生植物和灌木类所占的比例小。(2)地上定植群落与土壤种子库的变化趋势一致,地上定植群落的平均密度分别为68、242和673 plant·m~(-2)。地上定植群落物种组成也以一年生植物为主,但所占比例较土壤种子库有所下降。(3)不管是土壤种子库还是地上定植群落,Shannon-Wiener指数、Simpson指数、均匀度指数和丰富度指数大小顺序均为:固定沙地半固定沙地流动沙地,土壤种子库物种多样性指数均大于地上植被。(4)地上植被与土壤种子库组成上的相似性系数在0.333~0.739之间,相似性系数较高。地上定植群落与土壤种子库密度存在显著的正相关关系。流动沙地、半流动沙地、固定沙地地上植被密度分别有36%、52%、60%的变异可归结为土壤种子库密度的变异。科尔沁沙地土壤种子库是地上植被自然恢复的重要物质基础,土壤种子库中的大量种子,在植被自然恢复中将发挥积极的作用。  相似文献   

4.
封育草地土壤生物结皮对水分入渗与植物多样性的影响   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
盐池县柳杨堡乡从2000年开始采取封育措施,长期的无人为干扰使封育区内产生土壤生物结皮,结皮对水分有一定影响,进而影响封育区植被的恢复。采用双环入渗法分析生物结皮对土壤水分的影响,并通过对人工封育区内的植被调查测定去除土壤结皮前后的植物多样性变化。结果表明:有生物结皮覆盖的土壤入渗曲线的最高峰比无生物结皮覆盖的低约5 cm,有生物结皮覆盖的土壤初始入渗速率为0.8 cm·min^-1,而无生物结皮覆盖的土壤初始入渗速率为2.6 cm·min^-1,随着封育年限的增加,土壤生物结皮的覆盖面积及厚度逐年增加,结构也更紧密,影响土壤的水分入渗,不利于植被的生长,而通过对封育区内新翻耕土层和未翻耕的土层的植物多样性比较,新翻耕的土层中的植物多样性指数明显高于未翻耕土层。因此对封育区内采取适度翻耕,能够减少生物结皮对土壤水分入渗的负面影响,能够更有效的利用降水,促进植被恢复。  相似文献   

5.
高寒小嵩草草甸种子库和种子雨动态分析   总被引:18,自引:0,他引:18  
对小嵩草草甸种子库的大小和物种组成及与种子雨、地上植被的关系进行了初步研究 .结果表明 ,返青期和枯黄期小嵩草草甸种子库单位体积 (1.0m× 1.0m× 0 .1m)分别有种子nf=10 5 5 0粒和nk=13 815粒 ,分别由 2 2种和 2 4种植物组成 ,分属 9个科 .其中 ,莎草科、豆科和龙胆科占优势 ,禾本科所占比例较小 .每平方米种子雨nr=8436 .4粒 ,由2 5种植物组成 ,分属 10个科 ,莎草科和禾本科所占比例较大 .种子库和种子雨在物种组成上有一定的相似性 (r =0 .76 0 0 ,P <0 .0 1) ,二者共有 19个种 ,分别占种子库和种子雨物种总数的 82 .6 1%和 90 .48% .地上植被与种子库的相似性较小 ,地上植被中有 43.2 4%和 5 1.35 %的植物分别在返青期和枯黄期种子库中出现 ,6 0 %的植物出现于种子雨中 .在物种分布和优势度上 ,地上植被与种子雨间一致性较高 ,但它们与种子库间有一定的分歧 .从地上植被到返青期时的种子库 ,物种多样性降低了 1.6 1% ,从而说明种子库不仅是地上植被补充更新的源泉之一 ,而且是维持植物物种多样性的一种机制 .图 3参 13  相似文献   

6.
封育对科尔沁沙地植被恢复和土壤特性的影响   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
过度放牧是科尔沁地区土地沙化的主要原因之一,围栏封育可以有效的抑制牲畜对植被的破坏,促进沙地植被恢复,从而改善区域的生态环境。本研究以科尔沁沙地主要固沙植被——小叶锦鸡儿群落为对象,采用空间序列代替时间序列的方法,分析不同封育年限和自然放牧条件下小叶锦鸡儿群落的土壤种子库和地上植被特征、土壤理化性质和土壤水分动态,较系统地探讨了封育措施对沙地植被和土壤特性的影响。结果表明:①封育措施促使固沙植被区土壤种子库密度显著增加(P<0.05),封育2 a、6 a和12 a的土壤种子库密度分别提高了15.7%、482.5%和728.1%;土壤种子库的物种多样性和均匀度随着封育年限的增加而降低。②封育措施对沙地植被恢复具有显著的促进作用(P<0.05),封育6 a和12 a后植被密度分别提高了108.0%和239.3%,植物盖度分别提高了261.6%和271.6%;适度的封育年限(<6 a)可以提高群落的物种多样性,过长的封育年限(11 a)反而使物种多样性下降。③封育措施促使土壤表层(0-10 cm)的养分(有机质、全氮、碱解氮、全磷、速效磷、速效钾)含量有所提高,土壤含水量无显著变化(P>0.05)。  相似文献   

7.
围栏封育促进植被恢复效果研究方法很多,其中通过研究植被的群落特征及物种多样性来阐述恢复状况仍是比较常用和有效的手段,但多样性测度对生物群落的自组织及有序性方面的特征描述欠缺,鉴于此,多样性与复杂性测度结合起来研究群落结构与功能显得更有意义。研究人工封育对植被恢复过程中群落的多样性与复杂性的影响,必然有助于揭示生态恢复过程机理。目前,利用多样性与复杂性测度相结合来对群落结构进行量化研究不多,用于对草原生态系统植物群落结构研究更少。本文通过样地调查,利用多样性和复杂性指数相结合定量研究半干旱区人工封育草场植物群落物种多样性、复杂性随封育年限的变化规律,并对比分析复杂性与物种多样性之间的相关性。结果表明,(1)老封育区、新封育区丰富度指数整体高于对照区,说明封育有利于物种丰富度的增加。但随封育时间的延长,封育区的优势种占据主要的资源空间,丰富度指数降低。长时间封育,草场植被丰富度将发生规律性波动变化,低峰值和高峰值出现频率均约为4~5年/次。老封育区、新封育区的SW、SP多样性指数值大部分也高于对照区,说明封育措施增加草场植被的多样性。物种多样性指数受降水影响显著,当降水量增加或减少时,多样性指数也相应出现增加或减少,但降水影响效应具有一定的滞后性。老封育区、新封育区均匀度变化比较平稳,且指数值高于对照区,说明封育有利于均匀度的增加。(2)老封育区、新封育区总复杂性指数、无序结构复杂性指数值大部分比对照区指数值高,且指数波动相对平稳,说明封育区群落结构比对照区稳定,更适合荒漠草原植被的生长,封育增加了群落总复杂性、无序结构复杂性。封育也提高群落有序结构复杂性,但?  相似文献   

8.
宁夏盐池封育区植物特征值及多样性影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
沈彦  张克斌  杜林峰  乔峰 《生态环境》2007,16(5):1481-1484
封育措施是一种主要的草场恢复和重建的措施。通过对半干旱沙地老封育、新封育和对照区的比较分析,量化了不同封育措施下植被变化。对3种封育措施群落组成和生物多样性的分析结果表明,封育改变了群落的组成成分并增加了生物多样性,同时对群落植物的生活型、饲用价值分析计算结果则显示,老封育的群落植物逐渐向多年生发展,放牧价值开始降低,而对照区则明显处于一种非平衡的稳定状态。从3种措施植被的盖度、高度、生物量和饲用价值来看,老封育区均低于新封育区和对照区,表明长期封育不利于促进并提高草场的放牧利用价值。  相似文献   

9.
金沙江干热河谷山地草地封育过程中土壤种子库时空特征   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
2006年和2007年,分别选择放牧、封育1年、封育2年和封育3年的退化山地草地,采用土壤种子库萌发法对土壤种子库的时间、空间分布进行测定,旨在揭示金沙江干热河谷退化山地草地在封育过程中,土壤种子库的时间、空间以及时间序列上的空间变化特征.结果表明,(1)随封育年限的推移土壤种子库密度显著增加(F=73.107;P=<0.001).植物种群土壤种子库密度随封育年限的推移,多年生植物种群土壤种子库密度显著增加(P=<0.001),一年生植物种群土壤种子库密度显著现降低(P=<0.01).(2)土壤种子库的空间分布特征为0~5 cm土壤层(含凋落物层)>5~10 cm土壤层>10~15cm土壤层,种子密度呈自上而下减少的趋势.(3)土壤种子库时间序列上的空间分布特征为,0~5 cm土壤层中种子库密度随封育时间的推移呈显著下降趋势(F=43.758;P<0.01),5~10 cm土壤层中种子库密度随封育时间的推移呈显著增加趋势(F=6.435;P<0.05),10~15 cm土壤层中种子库密度随封育时间的推移呈显著增加趋势(F=6.620;P<0.05).  相似文献   

10.
岷江干旱河谷生境恶劣,植物种群呈斑块状单物种聚集分布,研究植物斑块及斑块下土壤种子库的特征,有利于指导植被的自然恢复更新工作。选择岷江干旱河谷广泛存在的10种植物斑块,进行植物斑块特征的调查及斑块内土壤种子库的采样分析,结果表明:白刺花(Sophora davidii)、刺旋花(Convolvulus tragacanthoides)、金花蚤草(Pulicaria chrysantha)、矮探春(Jasminum humile)、川甘亚菊(Ajania potaninii)、小叶杭子梢(Campylotropis wilsonii)斑块有一定的土壤种子库库容量,土壤种子库种子密度在(890.0±282.233)/m2以上,而马鞍羊蹄甲(Bauhinia faberi)、芦苇(Phragmites australis)、竹叶草(Oplismenus compositus)斑块和裸斑的种子库库容量较小,土壤种子库种子密度分别为(437.5±260.615)/m2、(145.0±45.917)/m2、(172.5±69.567)/m2和(105.0±40.104)/m2;各植物斑块及土壤种子库中地面芽和高位芽生活型的植物占的比例较大,以禾本科(Poaceae)、豆科(Leguminosae)、菊科(Compositae)植物较多;各植物斑块瞬时种子库物种比例较大,在干旱河谷的大环境下,各植物斑块内的种子在土壤种子库中留存的时间可能均较短;马鞍羊蹄甲、芦苇和竹叶草斑块土壤种子库与相应地上植被物种组成的较低相似性(Sorensen相似性指数低于0.369)、极显著负相关性,以及较低的密度和物种丰富度,意味着这3种植物斑块依靠土壤种子库进行自然恢复更新的潜力可能比其他植物斑块更低。此外,裸斑的土壤种子库中存在一定量的种子且长期持续种子库的比例较大(占56%),裸斑具有一定的依靠土壤种子库进行植被恢复的潜力。针对具体的斑块特征,充分利用土壤种子库作为种源,促进现有种子的萌发,改善幼苗的定居环境是今后该区域植被恢复更新工作应更多关注的一种途径。另外,对马鞍羊蹄甲、芦苇、竹叶草斑块辅以适当的人为补充种源等措施也是值得考虑的植被恢复更新途径。  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.  相似文献   

13.
Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.  相似文献   

14.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

15.
An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.  相似文献   

16.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

17.
Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.  相似文献   

18.
19.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

20.
How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.  相似文献   

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