Mitochondrial DNA Variability in the Endangered Razorback Sucker (Xyrauchen texanus): Analysis of Hatchery Stocks and Implications for Captive Propagation

The razorback sucker ( Xyrauchen texanus ) is a large, long-lived catostomid fish endemic to the Colorado River drainage of western North America, endangered because of recruitment failure. Efforts to preserve the species have emphasized artificial propagation and reintroduction. Given the importance of maintaining genetic diversity in such a program, we examined mitochondrial DNA diversity in a source population (Lake Mohave, Arizona-Nevada) and three hatchery-produced year classes (1987, 1989, 1990). The source contained considerable variation, indicated by high haplotype diversity ( ĥ = 0.97) and a large number of unique haplotypes (17 in 25 individuals). Diversity also was high in the 1987 ( ĥ = 0.89, 6 haplotypes in 10 individuals) and 1989 hatchery-produced year classes ( ĥ = 0.91, 7 in 11), but significantly lower in the 1990 year class ( ĥ = 0.71, 4 in 10). Low diversity in the last class was likely because of differences among females in fecundity, viability of progeny, or both. Because natural populations have collapsed throughout the species' range, we must identify methods that preserve the most diversity. We examined three potential alternatives: standard hatchery propagation, natural spawning in predator-free environments, and protective custody of larvae collected from the lake with reintroduction after growth to a size likely to survive. The last is the preferred alternative and should be pursued as the most cost-effective option for preserving genetic diversity in the razorback sucker.     

Potential effects of environmental contamination on Yuma Myotis demography and population growth.

Unplanned natural and anthropogenic disasters provide unique opportunities for investigating the influence of perturbations on population vital rates and species recovery times. We investigated the potential effects of a major pesticide spill by comparing annual survival rates using mark-recapture techniques on a riparian bat species, Yuma Myotis (Myotis yumanensis). Demography and population dynamics for most bat species remain poorly understood despite advances in mark-recapture estimation and modeling techniques. We compared survival and population growth rates of two roost populations exposed to a large chemical (metam sodium) spill in the upper Sacramento River in Northern California with two roost populations outside the contaminated area from 1992 to 1996. Hypotheses about long-term effects of the spill on female juvenile and adult survival were tested using an information-theoretic approach (AIC). Working hypotheses included effects of age, chemical spill, and time trend on survival. Female adult survival was higher than female juvenile survival across all sites, suggesting stage-specific mortality risks. Model-averaged estimates of female juvenile survival in the contaminated area (0.50-0.74) were lower than in control roosts (0.60-0.78) for each year in the study, suggesting that the spill may have reduced juvenile survival for several years. Female adult survival (0.73-0.89) did not appear to be strongly affected by the spill during the years of the study. There was an increase in survival for both stage-classes across all populations during the study period, which may have been caused by the end of an extended drought in California in the winter of 1993. The spill-affected population was in decline for the first year of the study as indicated by an estimated growth rate (lambda) < 1, but population growth rates increased during the four-year period.     

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

Effective Population Size in Winter-Run Chinook Salmon

Winter-run chinook salmon from the Sacramento River, California, is federally listed as endangered. Since 1989 there has been aprogram to augment the natural population by capturing adults, artificially spawning them, raising tine young and releasing the smolt. Here we estimate the effective population size of these captive-raised fish, the natural run, and the combination of both groups over the three-year period from 1991 to 1993. We find that the most appropriate estimate of the effective population size of the captive-raised progeny is a variance estimate of effective population size standardized so that the number of released smolts returning to spawn was the same as the number of spawners used to produce the smolts originally. We have generated 10,000 random samples to simulate returns from these released progeny. The estimates of the effective population sizes in 1991, 1992, and 1993 were only 7.02, 19.07, and 7.74, respectively. We then determined limits on the effective population size of the natural run based on 0.1 and 0.333 of the run-size estimates. Using estimates of the captive proportion of the run, the minimum estimates of the effective population size of the overall run for the three years were 21.9, 127.3, and 39.0, and the maximum estimates were 61.6, 401.0, and 108.7. It does not appear that the hatchery program has reduced the overall effective population size. The run sizes in each year are extremely low, however, and it is possible that fish will be lost from this run in one of the years in the immediate future, making reestablishment of a healthy run even more difficult.     

Population Viability Analysis for a Small Population of Red-Cockaded Woodpeckers and an Evaluation of Enhancement Strategies

We performed a series of population and pedigree analyses to examine the viability of a small Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) population located at the Savannah River Site, in Barnwell and Aiken counties of South Carolina. The population's existence and future survival are precarious. As few as four individuals, including just one breeding pair, comprised this population in 1985. Now, primarily because of experimental transformation of birds from other areas, the population has increased to 25. As of 1990, genealogy pedigree analysis showed that the respective contribution of 14 founders to the extant population has not been equal. Founder gender equivalents are low (5.4) but could reach 9.2 if poorly-represented founders were to produce offspring. The fraction of founder gene diversity retained in the current population is 0.91. Successful recovery strategies would ensure 95% probability of population survival while maintaining 90% heterozygosity for 200 years. Viability analyses indicated that, depending on relative effects of inbreeding depression and stochastic environmental events, the Savannah River Site population has a 68–100% chance of extinction during this period. Annual translocation into the population of at least three females and two males for a 10-year period will achieve a 96% probability of survival for 200 years. Even with translocation of numerous males and females per year (up to 50 of each), the 90% heterozygosity goal may not be achieved. We discuss recommendations for choosing individuals for translocation logistical constraints on achieving recovery objectives, and limitations of our modeling approach.     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

China's Grain for Green Program has reduced soil erosion in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yellow River

Severe soil erosion in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yellow River is a serious environmental problem in western China. In order to control this soil erosion, the national government implemented the Grain for Green Program (GGP) in Sichuan Province (in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) and Shaanxi Province (in the middle reaches of the Yellow River) in 1999. To evaluate the effects of the GGP on soil erosion, the present study investigated the relationships between annual precipitation and three parameters, annual runoff, sediment concentration, and sediment discharge, for these rivers. As the area covered by the GGP increased, sediment concentration and sediment discharge both decreased, and the correlation with the GGP area was much stronger than the correlation with annual precipitation. Therefore, China's GGP appears to be controlling soil erosion in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yellow River.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Survival probability estimates for the endangered loggerhead sea turtle resident in southern Great Barrier Reef waters

Sex- and age-class-specific survival of a loggerhead turtle population resident in southern Great Barrier Reef waters was estimated using a long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 271 loggerheads tagged over 9 years (1984-1992) were classified into two age classes (adult, immature) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. The sex and maturity status of each turtle was determined from visual examination of reproductive organs using laparoscopy. A reduced-parameter model accounting for constant survival with sex- and time-specific recapture was adequate for estimating age-class-specific survival probabilities, but inclusion of time-specific transient behaviour was informative for the immature age class. The annual fluctuations in the estimated proportion of transient immatures was not a function of sampling effort, but could be due to anomalous oceanographic conditions affecting dispersal of the immature class. There was no sex-specific difference in survival probabilities for either age class, but females were more likely to be recaptured than males, which might be related to behavioural differences such as sex-biased dispersal. The expected annual survival probability for adults was 0.875 (95% CI: 0.84-0.91). The expected annual survival probability for immatures was 0.859 (95% CI: 0.83-0.89), but when the transients were accounted for, the expected annual survival for the resident immature loggerheads was 0.918 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96). These are the first substantive estimates of annual survival probabilities for any loggerhead sea-turtle stock and provide a basis for developing a better understanding of loggerhead population dynamics.     

Estimating Sonoran pronghorn abundance and survival with fecal DNA and capture–recapture methods

Population abundance estimates are important for management but can be challenging to determine in low‐density, wide‐ranging, and endangered species, such as Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis). The Sonoran pronghorn population has been increasing; however, population estimates are currently derived from a biennial aerial count that does not provide survival or recruitment estimates. We identified individuals through noninvasively collected fecal DNA and used robust‐design capture–recapture to estimate abundance and survival for Sonoran pronghorn in the United States from 2013 to 2014. In 2014 we generated separate population estimates for pronghorn gathered near 13 different artificial water holes and for pronghorn not near water holes. The population using artificial water holes had 116 (95% CI 102–131) and 121 individuals (95% CI 112–132) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. For all locations, we estimated there were 144 individuals (95% CI 132–157). Adults had higher annual survival probabilities (0.83, 95% CI 0.69–0.92) than fawns (0.41, 95% CI 0.21–0.65). Our use of targeted noninvasive genetic sampling and capture–recapture with Sonoran pronghorn fecal DNA was an effective method for monitoring a large proportion of the population. Our results provided the first survival estimates for this population in over 2 decades and precise estimates of the population using artificial water holes. Our method could be used for targeted sampling of broadly distributed species in other systems, such as in African savanna ecosystems, where many species congregate at watering sites.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the Chinese mitten crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eriocheir sinensis</Emphasis> in its native range

The Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis is an indigenous and economically important species in China, but can also be found as invasive species in Europe and America. Mitten crabs have been exploited extensively as a food resource since the 1990s. Despite its ecological and economic importance, the genetic structure of native mitten crab populations is not well understood. In this paper, we investigated the genetic structure of mitten crab populations in China by screening samples from ten locations covering six river systems at six microsatellite loci. Our results provide further evidence that mitten crabs from the River Nanliujiang in Southern China are a genetically differentiated population within the native range of Eriocheir, and should be recognized as a separate taxonomic unit. In contrast, extremely low levels of genetic differentiation and no significant geographic population structure were found among the samples located north of the River Nanliujiang. Based on the reproductive biology of mitten crabs and the geography of their habitat we argue that both natural and human-mediated gene flow are unlikely to fully account for the similar allele frequency distributions at microsatellite loci. Large population sizes of mitten crabs suggest instead that a virtual absence of genetic drift and significant homoplasy of microsatellite alleles have contributed to the observed pattern. Furthermore, a coalescent-based maximum likelihood method indicated a more than two-fold lower effective population size of the Southern population compared to the Northern Group and low but significant levels of gene flow between both areas.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.     

Naturally and hatchery produced European trout Salmo trutta: do their marine survival and dispersal differ?

We tested whether marine survival and migration pattern differed between naturally and hatchery produced European trout Salmo trutta of different origins. The hatchery fish were released 150 m above the river estuary of the southwestern, Norwegian River Imsa, the home of the local population. Recaptures were used as proxy for survival. Wild and local hatchery fish survived better than transplanted hatchery stocks. Trout that were 1 year at release survived less well than 2-year olds, and small individuals less well than larger ones. Relative to their body size at release, populations that originated most distant from the River Imsa, the Baltic River Emån and the Norwegian mountain Lake Tunhovd, exhibited the poorest sea survival. At sea, trout chiefly moved less than 240 km from the river of release, but there were significant differences in dispersal among populations. Hatchery-produced River Emån and Lake Tunhovd trout moved farther from the River Imsa than the south Norwegian sea trout populations, and the marine distributions of the former were similar to that of the natural River Imsa trout. Large fish moved farther from the river than smaller ones. Straying to other rivers was low among wild and local hatchery-produced fish, and significantly lower than among most transplanted populations, and River Emån trout in particular. Thus, the River Imsa trout appeared better adapted to survival under the local conditions than non-local trout with consequences for optimal population management.     

Exploring Population Dynamics Patterns in a Rare Fish, Zingel asper, through Capture-Mark-Recapture Methods

Abstract:  We performed a capture-mark-recapture study on one of the last populations of Zingel asper , an endemic percid species of the Rhône River basin in France. The distribution of Z. asper has decreased dramatically during the last century. We sampled three sites in suitable habitats in the Beaume River. No impact of individual tagging on survival was found. The demography of the population was analyzed using capture-recapture methods that allow the estimation of survival, recruitment, and demographic growth rates. Annual survival rates were low (0.35–0.50). The level of transience was high (5% to 25%), suggesting that a significant number of individuals were highly mobile or shifted to suboptimal habitats. Seniority rates suggested random highly variable recruitment between years. The three sites had similar variation patterns in all demographic parameters, indicating broad spatial covariation in population dynamics. We found some local differences in demographic parameters, which could be linked to local habitat quality. Individual tagging allowed for the estimation of demographic parameters that improved our understanding of Z. asper population dynamics and revealed mechanisms that may affect population persistence, such as stochastic recruitment, low survival, and frequent dispersal. The fragmentation of habitat through river damming inhibits dispersal and represents a threat to the persistence of Z. asper in the Rhône basin. Our results offer evidence of the importance of dispersal in nonmigratory fishes and confirm the usefulness of individual tagging methods in rare fish demography.     

Factors affecting aural detections of songbirds.

Many factors affect the number of birds detected on point count surveys of breeding songbirds. The magnitude and importance of these factors are not well understood. We used a bird song simulation system to quantify the effects of detection distance, singing rate, species differences, and observer differences on detection probabilities of birds detected by ear. We simulated 40 point counts consisting of 10 birds per count for five primary species (Black-and-white Warbler Mniotilta varia, Black-throated Blue Warbler Dendroica caerulescens, Black-throated Green Warbler Dendroica virens, Hooded Warbler Wilsonia citrina, and Ovenbird Seiurus aurocapillus) over a range of 15 distances (34-143 m). Songs were played at low (two songs per count) and high (13-21 songs per count) singing rates. Detection probabilities averaged across observers ranged from 0.60 (Black-and-white Warbler) to 0.83 (Hooded Warbler) at the high singing rate and 0.41 (Black-and-white Warbler) to 0.67 (Hooded Warbler) at the low singing rate. Logistic regression analyses indicated that species, singing rate, distance, and observer were all significant factors affecting detection probabilities. Singing rate x species and singing rate X distance interactions were also significant. Simulations of expected counts, based on the best logistic model, indicated that observers detected between 19% (for the worst observer, lowest singing rate, and least detectable species) and 65% (for the best observer, highest singing rate, and most detectable species) of the true population. Detection probabilities on actual point count surveys are likely to vary even more because many sources of variability were controlled in our experiments. These findings strongly support the importance of adjusting measures of avian diversity or abundance from auditory point counts with direct estimates of detection probability.     

Demography of Two Mexican Spotted Owl Populations

Abstract: The Mexican Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis lucida ) is a threatened subspecies of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Although threatened, little is known about its population status. We studied the demography of the Mexican Spotted Owl in one study area in Arizona and one in New Mexico from 1991 to 1997. We estimated annual survival rates (φ), fecundity rates (   b ), and abundance (   N ) to test the hypothesis that population trends were stationary. Although annual fecundity rates (   b ^ = 0.494 for Arizona and 0.380 for New Mexico) and annual juvenile survival rates ( φ^ = 0.179 for Arizona and 0.109 for New Mexico) differed in magnitude between the study areas, they exhibited similar temporal patterns. Annual survival for territorial owls varied randomly in Arizona but declined linearly in New Mexico. Mean annual survival for territorial owls was 0.814 in Arizona and 0.832 for owls ≥3 years old and 0.644 for owls 1–2 years old in New Mexico. Based on survival and fecundity estimates, the annual rates of change (λ^) indicated that both populations were declining at ≥10% a year. These estimates were corroborated by observed declines in abundance. Some regional factor may have been affecting fecundity, whereas a combination of factors may have been affecting survival. Two possible reasons for the population declines are declines in habitat quality and regional trends in climate.     

长江中游农区洪涝灾害后鼠类数量动态

1998年至2001年在湖南安乡对洪灾后的啮齿动物数量进行了监测，并以正常区为对照；与此同时，也对曾遭受过洪灾的其它地区进行了对比调查．调查发现，虽然洪灾对啮齿动物的种群影响很大，但其数量回升速度较快，退水半年左右，种群数量就会超过未发生洪灾的相邻地区．主要原因是洪灾使害鼠的生态压力减少，如害鼠数量大幅减少，而食物相对丰富，栖息空间相对较大以及天敌的数量减少等，从而使残存鼠和迁入鼠的数量得以迅速回升．洪灾后鼠密度回升到很高的地区，即使进行大面积的化学防治降低鼠密度后，其回升速度也不同于正常地区，同样具有快速反弹的特征．图4表2参15     

Increasing the Accuracy of Productivity and Survival Estimates in Assessing Landbird Population Status

Abstract:  The conservation of species with declining populations requires information on population demography and identification of factors that limit population growth. For landbird species, an understanding of large-scale population declines often requires assessment of local population processes, including the production of offspring, the survival of those offspring, and adult survival. Population growth has been modeled for several species of landbirds to date, and these studies have provided important information on relationships between population status and population-limiting factors. Several recent studies have illuminated field methods and analytical techniques that can aid in increasing the accuracy of productivity and survival estimates for population models. We reviewed these methods and recommend their implementation, including quantification of the season-long productivity of individuals, collection of empirical data on juvenile survival during the postfledging and overwintering periods, and incorporation of adult breeding dispersal into annual adult survival estimates. Such methods will allow for more accurate assessment of population status and provide a better understanding of the factors on which to focus our conservation efforts.     

Processesof Tamarix invasion and floodplain development along the lower Green River, Utah.

Significant ecological, hydrologic, and geomorphic changes have occurred during the 20th century along many large floodplain rivers in the American Southwest. Native Populus forests have declined, while the exotic Eurasian shrub, Tamarix, has proliferated and now dominates most floodplain ecosystems. Photographs from late 19th and early 20th centuries illustrate wide river channels with largely bare in-channel landforms and shrubby higher channel margin floodplains. However, by the mid-20th century, floodplains supporting dense Tamarix stands had expanded, and river channels had narrowed. Along the lower Green River in eastern Utah, the causal mechanism of channel and floodplain changes remains ambiguous due to the confounding effects of climatically driven reductions in flood magnitude, river regulation by Flaming Gorge Dam, and Tamarix invasion. This study addressed whether Tamarix establishment and spread followed climate- or dam-induced reductions in annual peak flows or whether Tamarix was potentially a driver of floodplain changes. We aged 235 Tamarix and 57 Populus individuals, determined the hydrologic and geomorphic processes that controlled recruitment, identified the spatial relationships of germination sites within floodplain stratigraphic transects, and mapped woody riparian vegetation cohorts along three segments of the lower Green River. The oldest Tamarix established along several sampling reaches in 1938, and 1.50-2.25 m of alluvium has accreted above their germination surfaces. Nearly 90% of the Tamarix and Populus samples established during flood years that exceeded the 2.5-year recurrence interval. Recruitment was most common when large floods were followed by years with smaller peak flows. The majority of Tamarix establishment and Green River channel narrowing occurred long before river regulation by Flaming Gorge Dam. Tamarix initially colonized bare instream sand deposits (e.g., islands and bars), and most channel and floodplain changes followed the establishment of Tamarix. Our results suggest that Tamarix recruitment was triggered by large annual floods that were followed by years with lower peak flows, not by periods of low flow alone. Tamarix appears to have actively invaded floodplains, while Populus colonization has been limited. Thus, Tamarix invasion may have greatly influenced floodplain development and riparian vegetation composition along the lower Green River since the early 20th century.