Spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and oil price volatility to the volatility of stock markets of oil importers and exporters

Economic policy uncertainty generally tends to induce a pessimistic view of future market behaviour. Furthermore, instabilities in global oil prices have serious implications for the economies of oil exporters and importers, due to their over-dependence on crude oil for revenue and production activities, respectively, and thereby on stock market indices. Against limited empirical evidence, this study examines the spillover effects from global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and oil price volatility to the volatility of the stock market indices of oil exporters and importers in both developed and emerging economies. The results show that the spillover effect from GEPU to oil exporters is relatively smaller than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Conversely, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters are relatively larger than to oil importers, for both developed and emerging countries. Specifically, the volatility spillovers from oil prices to oil exporters (importers) in emerging countries are relatively stronger compared to oil exporters (importers) in developed countries. The findings indicate that the volatility of the stock markets of emerging countries is more sensitive to global factors such as GEPU and oil price volatility, and that oil exporters and importers in emerging economies are more sensitive to oil price volatility than oil exporters and importers in developed economies, which is in line with previous studies.

     

Compilation and application of a primary PM2.5 emissions inventory with high sectoral resolution in Japan

To elucidate the macro-structure of the PM_2.5 emissions generated by Japan's economic activities, this paper presents an emission inventory of primary particles of PM_2.5 with high sectoral resolution based on the Japanese Input–Output Tables, comprising some 400 sectors. These primary PM_2.5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the estimated energy consumption associated with each fuel type by a PM₁₀ emission factor incorporating the technological level of dust collection in each sector and the mass ratio of PM_2.5 to PM₁₀. Non-energy emissions from agricultural open burning were also determined. Total PM_2.5 emissions in 2000 were 252 kt, 49% of which were due to mobile emission sources. Changes in total PM_2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2000 were also calculated. This showed that a substantial increase in energy sector emissions due to rising coal consumption was offset by a sharp decline in emissions from road vehicles and shipping vessels, resulting in an overall decrease in total emissions. In addition, the emissions induced by economic demand in each sector were quantified by means of input–output analysis, which revealed that demand for construction, foods and communications and services constituted the principal causes of real domestic emissions. An assessment of sectoral contributions to PM_2.5 emissions that takes into account the effects of human exposure, expressed as external costs, suggests that the contribution of transportation is greater than indicated on the grounds of direct emissions alone.     

Gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty: what causes what,and why does it matter? Evidence from 18 selected countries

In this paper, we examine asymmetric causal relationships between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in a panel of 18 countries over the period 1998–2017, using the recently introduced panel causality approach of Hatemi et al (Appl Econ, 48:2301–2308, 2016) that accounts for asymmetric dynamics and is robust to both cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Empirical findings reveal asymmetric causal relationships between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in the sampled countries. Specifically, results show that economic policy uncertainty and gasoline prices have positive and negative asymmetric bidirectional causal relations in 13 countries. No feedback causality was detected between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in 5 countries. Based on the results, we infer that positive and negative asymmetric causal relations exist between economic policy uncertainty and gasoline price, with attendant policy implications in sampled regions.

     

Evaluation of energy intensity of transport service sectors in Vietnam

This research analyses energy intensity of transport service sectors in Vietnam and its changing trend in the past years using IO tables and LMDI decomposition method. Energy consumption of 38 economic sectors in 2007, 2012 and 2018 is determined, of which transport service sectors were the second largest energy consumer (17.71 Mtoe), occupied 18.5% of total energy consumed in Vietnamese economy in 2018. In terms of energy intensity, a rising trend is seen in all transport service sectors, of which four most important transport services including bus and other road passenger transport, freight transport service by road and pipeline, waterway shipping freight and aviation passenger reached 0.62 kgoe/USD, 0.72 kgoe/USD, 0.60 kgoe/USD and 0.62 kgoe/USD in 2018, respectively. The ineffective structural change and ineffective energy intensity change are the reasons behind the upward trend in these sectors. Using Leontief inverse, the study also unveils how demanded on transport services by other economic sectors in terms of energy and how much energy embodied in all inputs of any economic sector. In order to keep the energy intensity stable and gradually decreasing, the recommendations are focused on effectiveness in structural changes and improvements in energy efficiency.

     

Reduction of atmospheric emissions due to switching from fuel oil to natural gas at a power plant in a critical area in Central Mexico

ABSTRACT

A case study was conducted to evaluate the SO₂ emission reduction in a power plant in Central Mexico, as a result of the shifting of fuel oil to natural gas. Emissions of criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases, organic and inorganic toxics were estimated based on a 2010 report of hourly fuel oil consumption at the “Francisco Pérez Ríos” power plant in Tula, Mexico. For SO₂, the dispersion of these emissions was assessed with the CALPUFF dispersion model. Emissions reductions of > 99% for SO₂, PM and Pb, as well as reductions >50% for organic and inorganic toxics were observed when simulating the use of natural gas. Maximum annual (993 µg/m³) and monthly average SO₂ concentrations were simulated during the cold-dry period (152–1063 µg/m³), and warm-dry period (239–432 µg/m³). Dispersion model results and those from Mexico City’s air quality forecasting system showed that SO₂ emissions from the power plant affect the north of Mexico City in the cold-dry period. The evaluation of model estimates with 24 hr SO₂ measured concentrations at Tepeji del Rio suggests that the combination of observations and dispersion models are useful in assessing the reduction of SO₂ emissions due to shifting in fuels. Being SO₂ a major precursor of acid rain, high transported sulfate concentrations are of concern and low pH values have been reported in the south of Mexico City, indicating that secondary SO₂ products emitted in the power plant can be transported to Mexico City under specific atmospheric conditions.

Implications: Although the surroundings of a power plant located north of Mexico City receives most of the direct SO₂ impact from fuel oil emissions, the plume is dispersed and advected to the Mexico City metropolitan area, where its secondary products may cause acid rain. The use of cleaner fuels may assure significant SO₂ reductions in the plant emissions and consequent acid rain presence in nearby populated cities and should be compulsory in critical areas to comply with annual emission limits and health standards.     

The symmetric and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil prices on carbon emissions in the USA and China: evidence from the ARDL and non-linear ARDL approaches

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The environmental consequences of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price changes have attracted much attention in recent years, but few...     

Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility

Sub-regional and sector level distribution of SO₂ and NO_x emissions inventories for India have been estimated for all the 466 Indian districts using base data for years 1990 and 1995. Although, national level emissions provide general guidelines for assessing mitigation alternatives, but significant regional and sectoral variability exist in Indian emissions. Districts reasonably capture this variability to a fine grid as 80% of these districts are smaller than 1°×1° resolution with 60% being smaller than even 1/2°×1/2°. Moreover, districts in India have well-established administrative and institutional mechanisms that would be useful for implementing and monitoring measures. District level emission estimates thus offer a finer regional scale inventory covering the combined interests of the scientific community and policy makers. The inventory assessment methodology adopted is similar to that prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sectoral decomposition at district level includes emissions from fossil fuel combustion, non-energy emissions from industrial activities and agriculture. Total SO₂ and NO_x emissions from India were 3542 and 2636 Gg, respectively (1990) and 4638 and 3462 Gg (1995) growing at annual rate of around 5.5%. The sectoral composition of SO₂ emissions indicates a predominance of electric power generation sector (46%). Power and transport sector emissions equally dominate NO_x emissions contributing nearly 30% each. However, majority of power plants are situated in predominantly rural districts while the latter are concentrated in large urban centers. Mitigation efforts for transport sector NO_x emissions would therefore be higher. The district level analysis indicates diverse spatial distribution with the top 5% emitting districts contributing 46.5 and 33.3% of total national SO₂ and NO_x emissions, respectively. This skewed emission pattern, with a few districts, sectors and point sources emitting significant SO₂ and NO_x, offers mitigation flexibility to policy makers for cost-effective mitigation.     

Social Network Analysis of Multi-level Linkages: A Swedish Case Study on Northern Forest-Based Sectors

Forest use in Northern Sweden is being influenced both by global trends and local situations. This results in interactions between numerous groups that may impact local forest governance. Social network analysis can here provide insight into the total pattern of positive, negative, and cross-level interactions within user group community structure (within and among groups). This study analyses interactions within selected renewable resource sectors in two northern Swedish municipalities, both with regard to whether they are positive, neutral, or negative, as well as with regard to how local actors relate to actors across levels, e.g., with regional, national, and international actors. The study illustrates that many interactions both within and outside a given sector are seen as neutral or positive, and that considerable interaction and impact are defined as national and in some cases even international. It also indicates that the impact of Sweden’s only existing Model Forest may to some extent constitute a bridge between different sectors and levels, in comparison with the interactions between sectors in a municipality where such a cooperation mechanism does not exist.     

Power to gas: an option for 2060 high penetration rate of renewable energy scenario of China

Replacing conventional fossil fuel power plants with large-scale renewable energy sources (RES) is a crucial aspect of the decarbonization of the power sector and represents a key part of the carbon-neutral strategy of China. The high penetration rate of renewable energy in the electricity system, however, implies the challenges of dealing with the intermittency and fluctuation of RES. Power to gas (P2G), which can convert surplus renewable power into a chemical form of energy (i.e., synthetic gas), can help handle this challenge and supply new energy carriers for various energy sectors. By modeling three potential 2060 energy mix scenarios in China, this paper aims to describe the possible contribution of the high penetration rate of renewable energy combined with P2G in the future sustainable energy system. Different schemes are listed and compared, and the results are used in a basic economic evaluation of the synthetic gas production cost for the P2G plants. Ideally, nearly 18 million tons of carbon dioxide would be recycled and transformed into methane (around 9.37 km³) annually in China. Considering a zero price for the excess renewable power and future costs of the components, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the final production of methane is estimated at 0.86 $/m³_SNG.

     

Revisiting oil rents-output growth nexus in Nigeria: evidence from dynamic autoregressive distributive lag model and kernel-based regularized least squares approach

Given the dominant role of oil in terms of foreign exchange earnings in Nigeria, this study revisits the oil rents and output growth nexus, using the novel dynamic autoregressive distributive lag (DYNARDL) model and kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) approach over the period 1973–2020. The major finding from this study is that oil rents are less significant for output and also exhibit decreasing marginal effect on output growth in Nigeria. However, our robustness result shows that oil revenue is positive and significantly affects output growth, while corruption dampens output growth. Result from the oil revenue model with a minimum root square mean error, when compared with the oil rents model, corroborate the finding. We are thus of the opinion that oil revenue is more important for output growth in Nigeria than oil rents. Having established this fact, it is recommended that policymakers and the government should accord utmost attention to boosting oil revenue via transparency and accountability. They should also ensure a lasting solution to the nation’s high dependency on refined crude oil products importation for a sustainable economic growth and development. Also, more efforts should be directed at developing the seven identified strategic solid minerals to further enhance the revenue base of the government.

     

Surface fluxes and atmospheric stability obtained from a surface energy balance model with parameters estimated from satellite remote sensing

A linear programming model is proposed to find the energy strategy for reducing carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan. Scenarios that include energy switching and energy conservation under different emission levels are considered, and the corresponding economic impacts are evaluated. Emissions from thirty-nine sectors are reduced by two major mechanisms. Energy switching is assumed to be induced by energy price change, whereas energy conservation is assumed only in the four most energy-intensive sectors. The results show the economic impact on gross domestic product under different energy scenarios. Appropriate energy strategies for carbon dioxide emission reduction could be implemented based on the scenario analysis.     

An Air Quality Modeling Study Comparing Two Possible Sites for the New International Airport for Mexico City

Abstract

Using an air quality model, two future urban scenarios induced by the construction of the new international airport for Mexico City are compared at a regional level. The air quality model couples the meteorology model MM5 and state-of-the-art photochemistry. The air quality comparison is made using metrics for the criterion gases selected for the study. From the two urban scenarios compared, the option for Tizayuca is moderately better than the option for Texcoco, because relative reductions in O₃ and other photochemical pollutants are achieved over highly populated areas. Regardless of the site, the air quality for the central region of Mexico in the future will deteriorate. In the region of central Mexico, SO₂ and NO₂ will become important pollutants.     

Some aspects of boundary layer evolution in Mexico City

Measurements of chemical species and meteorological parameters were made at a site located 440 m above the mean basin level of Mexico City, over a two-week period in November during Project Azteca. Data from three of the stations of Mexico City's air quality monitoring network (Red Automática de Monitoreo Ambiental, RAMA) were also used to estimate the dilution in concentration experienced by pollutants as they are transported upslope during the course of the day. Both carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide show a dilution of up to 50%, while ozone is usually more concentrated at the elevated site. These comparisons clearly highlight the intrinsic differences between primary and secondary gases, which are supported also by time–space, cross correlation analysis. The thermal mesoscale wind circulation dominates concentrations of pollutants at the research site: upslope during the day and downslope during the night. The data present clear evidence that downslope flows during the night contribute to ozone concentration at basin sites.     

Fine Particle Receptor Modeling in the Atmosphere of Mexico City

Abstract

Source apportionment analyses were carried out by means of receptor modeling techniques to determine the contribution of major fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) sources found at six sites in Mexico City. Thirty-six source profiles were determined within Mexico City to establish the fingerprints of particulate matter sources. Additionally, the profiles under the same source category were averaged using cluster analysis and the fingerprints of 10 sources were included. Before application of the chemical mass balance (CMB), several tests were carried out to determine the best combination of source profiles and species used for the fitting. CMB results showed significant spatial variations in source contributions among the six sites that are influenced by local soil types and land use. On average, 24-hr PM_2.5 concentrations were dominated by mobile source emissions (45%), followed by secondary inorganic aerosols (16%) and geological material (17%). Industrial emissions representing oil combustion and incineration contributed less than 5%, and their contribution was higher at the industrial areas of Tlalnepantla (11%) and Xalostoc (8%). Other sources such as cooking, biomass burning, and oil fuel combustion were identified at lower levels. A second receptor model (principal component analysis, [PCA]) was subsequently applied to three of the monitoring sites for comparison purposes. Although differences were obtained between source contributions, results evidence the advantages of the combined use of different receptor modeling techniques for source apportionment, given the complementary nature of their results. Further research is needed in this direction to reach a better agreement between the estimated source contributions to the particulate matter mass.     

Measurement of China’s green GDP and its dynamic variation based on industrial perspective

Over the previous two decades, Chinese economic development presented a rapid growth. However, with continuous industrialization and urbanization, China is confronted with great challenges of energy security and environmental issues. These problems are closely related to the current accounting method of economic growth to a certain extent. In order to meet these challenges, it is imperative to establish a green accounting system of economic growth and measure China’s green GDP and its changing trend based on the industrial perspective. Using the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) and industry data, this paper estimates China’s green GDP and green value added by industry sectors in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017. The results reveal the following: First, the ratio of green GDP to traditional GDP gradually increases from 89.85 to 95.83% during 2005–2017, which means that the negative externalities of economic growth of the resource and environment are gradually weakened. Second, the difference between traditional GDP and green GDP during 2005–2017 is about 6.96%, with the carbon emissions accounting for 70.71% of environmental impact. Third, due to more than 80% of the environmental impact coming from three sectors: manufacturing (49.99%), electricity industry (22.63%), and other services (11.37%), these three sectors should be key sectors for energy conservation and emission reduction; fourth, the green GDP of the mining, electricity industries, and manufacturing accounts for the lowest proportion of GDP, which means that the development patterns of these three industries in recent years should be adjusted and optimized step by step.

     

Developing intake fraction estimates with limited data: Comparison of methods in Mexico City

In order to estimate the health benefits of reducing mobile source emissions, analysts typically use detailed atmospheric models to estimate the change in population exposure that results from a given change in emissions. However, this may not be feasible in settings where data are limited or policy decisions are needed in the short term. Intake fraction (iF), defined as the fraction of emissions of a pollutant or its precursor that is inhaled by the population, is a metric that can be used to compare exposure assessment methods in a health benefits analysis context. To clarify the utility of rapid-assessment methods, we calculate particulate matter iFs for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using five methods, some more resource intensive than others. First, we create two simple box models to describe dispersion of primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in the Mexico City basin. Second, we extrapolate iFs for primary PM_2.5, ammonium sulfate, and ammonium nitrate from US values using a regression model. Third, we calculate iFs by assuming a linear relationship between emissions and population-weighted concentrations of primary PM_2.5, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate (a particle composition method). Finally, we estimate PM iFs from detailed atmospheric dispersion and chemistry models run for only a short period of time. Intake fractions vary by up to a factor of five, from 23 to 120 per million for primary PM_2.5. Estimates of 60, 7, and 0.7 per million for primary PM, secondary ammonium sulfate, and secondary ammonium nitrate, respectively, represent credible central estimates, with an approximate factor of two uncertainty surrounding each estimate. Our results emphasize that multiple rapid-assessment methods can provide meaningful estimates of iFs in resource-limited environments, and that formal uncertainty analysis, with special attention to model biases and uncertainty, would be important for health benefits analyses.     

Revitalization of Chinese’s manufacturing industry under the carbon neutral goal

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the manufacturing industry has been crucial for economic growth. China’s manufacturing activity began after China approved and opened legal reform to the rest of the world in 1978. There are usually three stages of development, including the catch-up period. At the same time, they reflect the private economic sector, manufacturing, and foreign exchange industries, and the opening up to the international markets. This advancement comes along with high energy consumption, leading to a high rate of pollution. Therefore, this study provides a detailed overview of the “Made in China 2025” pilot target and implementations of policies to achieve a carbon-neutral goal. We assessed the efficiency of implementing policies in the Chinese manufacturing sector and recommended decision-making policies to achieve the “Made in China 2025” plan and the 2030 carbon-neutral goal. The Quantitative Strategic Programming Matrix (QSPM) and SWOT analysis matrix were used to put forward some development strategies to transform and upgrade China’s manufacturing industry by combining relevant strategic theories. This study is significant in terms of energy-saving and carbon emission-reducing policy implementations for the Chinese manufacturing industry. In addition, we suggested some measures to achieve a sustainable environment in line with carbon-neutral policies.

     

The Application of Chemical Leasing Business Models in Mexico

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.02.294 Background, Aim and Scope. To better address the requirements of the changing multilateral order, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Cleaner Production Programme, in 2004, developed the new Sustainable Industrial Resource Management (SIRM) approach. This approach is in accordance with the principles decided at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. Unlike the traditional approaches to environmental management, the SIRM concept captures the idea of achieving sustainable industrial development through the implementation of circular material and energy flows in the entire production chain and reduction of the amount of material and energy used with greater efficiency solutions. The SIRM approach seeks to develop new models to encourage a shift from selling products to supplying services, modifying, in this manner, the supplier/user relationship and resulting in a win-win situation for the economy and the environment. Chemical Leasing represents such a new service-oriented business model and is currently being promoted by UNIDO′s Cleaner Production Programme. Main Features. One of the potential approaches to address the problems related to ineffective use and over-consumption of chemicals is the development and implementation of Chemical Leasing business models. These provide concrete solutions to the effective management of chemicals and on the ways negative releases to the environment can be reduced. The Chemical Leasing approach is a strategy that addresses the obligations of the changing international chemicals policy by focusing on a more service-oriented strategy. Mexico is one of the countries that were selected for the implementation of UNIDO's demonstration project to promote Chemical Leasing models in the country. The target sector of this project is the chemical industry, which is expected to shift their traditional business concept towards a more service and value-added approach. This is being achieved through the development of company specific business models that implement the above-indicated Chemical Leasing concept with the support from the Mexican National Cleaner Production Centre (NCPC). Results and Conclusions. The implementation of Chemical Leasing in Mexico has proven to be an efficient instrument in enhancing sustainable chemical management and significantly reducing emissions in Mexico. Several companies from the chemical industrial sector implement or agreed to implement chemical leasing business models. Based on the positive findings of the project, several Mexican companies started to negotiate contents of possible Chemical Leasing contracts with suitable business partners. The project further aimed at disseminating information on Chemical Leasing. It successfully attracted globally operating companies in the chemicals sector to explore possibilities to implement Chemical Leasing business models in Mexico. At the international level, the results of the UNIDO project were presented on 20TH September 2005 during a side event of the Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management (SAICM) Preparation Conference in Vienna. Recommendations and Outlook. To facilitate the promotion and application of Chemical Leasing project at international level, UNIDO is currently developing a number of tools to standardize Chemical Leasing projects. These include, among others, Chemical leasing contract models; Chemical Leasing data base to find partners for chemical leasing; and guidelines to implement Chemical Leasing projects and work programmes.     

Assessing the perceived impact of exploration and production of hydrocarbons on households perspective of environmental regulation in Ghana

This paper seeks to critically study the perceived impacts of the exploration of hydrocarbons in selected coastal communities in the Western region, the oil and gas industry benefits to local communities, and to determine whether hydrocarbon development is a means for sustainable development. The study uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches using a questionnaire survey, key informant interview, and focus group discussion tools to understand the impact of oil and gas exploration and production in selected affected communities along the coast of Ghana. The activities of oil production and exploration impact negatively on communities; it also leads to a sharp increase in food prices thereby increasing their costs of living. The activity has also caused a decline in fish catch levels which happens to be the main economic activity as a result of exclusion zones created by oil companies which limited the extent fishermen can go fishing. In terms of infrastructure, the three communities are lacking, 77% of respondents from Princess Town hold the view that there is no motorable road linking their community in the next town and 60% from Aketakyi also hold the same view. Infrastructure such as roads, schools, water provision, and clinics are woefully provided in these communities.

     

Dynamic consistency problems behind the Kyoto Protocol

This paper examines the economic rationale behind both the quantitative targets and the flexibility mechanisms adopted in the Kyoto Protocol. It synthesises some theoretical dimensions of the debate about the socalled 'when flexibility' of climate policies, explaining the importance of the interplay between uncertainty and techno-economic inertia. Numerical results show that the aggregate Kyoto abatement target is consistent with a stochastic dynamic optimum in which a 450 ppm concentration ceiling is seriously considered. Turning to the EU-US debate about the interpretation of the 'supplemental to' condition in Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol regarding the articulation between international trading systems and domestic policies and measures, this paper illuminates the risk of dynamic inconsistencies due to the heterogeneity of capital stocks in the economy, if price signals do not emerge in due time from greenhouse gas trading systems because of the 'hot air' in some countries and the discovery of low cost abatement potentials in Annex B countries. Numerical simulations show that a delay of action on sectors with large inertia of capital stocks may, under such circumstances, undermine the economic viability of climate policies beyond 2012. Some lessons are derived from the future of climate policies and negotiations about the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.