Fragmentary provisions for uncertainty disclosure and consideration in EA legislation,regulations and guidelines and the need for improvement

The consideration and disclosure of uncertainties is fundamental to a credible EA process, but little is known about the nature and type of requirements and guidance available to proponents, practitioners and decision makers about how to deal with uncertainties. This paper examines the provisions for considering and disclosing uncertainties in EA. Methods are based on a comparative review of uncertainty provisions in EA legislation, regulations and guidance documents under Canadian federal, provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Results show 10 types of provisions applied at different stages of the EA process with considerable jurisdictional variability and incoherence. The most common provision was that decision makers can request that project proponents provide more information, followed by the preparation of contingency plans, and that practitioners document their assumptions about data reliability. Most of these provisions were found in guidelines, versus legislation or regulations; and most addressed impact management, with very few provisions for addressing uncertainty during EA review and decision making. Current practices of uncertainty (non)disclosure and (non)consideration in EA can be explained, in part, by the superficial nature and limited extent of the requirements and guidance made available to EA practitioners, proponents, and decision makers. The existing requirements placed on proponents and practitioners to disclose and consider uncertainties are necessary, but insufficient. Stronger, more coherent and transparent requirements for those tasked with EA review and decision making to consider uncertainty information when disclosed, and the development of practical guidance on how to do so, are needed.     

An assessment of cause and effect decision-making model for firm environmental knowledge management capacities in uncertainty

Environmental practices in knowledge management capability (EKMC) is a complex and uncertainty concept that is difficult to determine based on a firm’s real situation because measuring EKMC requires a set of qualitative and quantitative measurement. The objective of this study is to develop a cause and effect model in uncertainty using the fuzzy set theory and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. A framework for evaluating EKMC is proposed. An approach of fuzzy linguistic is proposed to evaluate the firm EKMC. The evaluation results of EKMC obtained through the proposed approach are objective and unbiased due to two reasons. Firstly, the results are generated by a group of experts in the presence of motile attributes. Secondly, the fuzzy linguistic approach has more advantage to reduce distortion and losing of information. Through evaluating the result of EKMC, managers could judge the necessity to improve the EKMC and determine which criteria are the needed directions to improve. The managerial implication and conclusions are discussed.     

Functional forest road network planning by consideration of environmental impact assessment for wood harvesting

Forest management today has to meet a number of objectives. Planning of multi-functional forest road networks is one essential for meeting the aims of the sustainable forest concept. Road construction damages the natural environment unless it is carefully thought out. As forest engineers we have to consider the protection of nature when designing forest roads. With this aim in mind, a new network planning approach was developed for wood-harvesting. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to evaluate the data and planning process. The new forest road network plan for Catak Forest District constituted the addition of a new 16-road segment, total length 59.067 km, to the existing road network plan, for the purpose of wood-harvesting operations. Forest road density value was determined as 22.8 m/ha: the opening-up rate of the area was increased to 77.8% and the opening-up rate of the existing stand value was increased to 94.3% after close examination. 90.2% of roads were planned for the forest areas where there is likely to be minimal negative environmental impact.     

Integrating SDGs in environmental assessment: Unfolding SDG functions in emerging practices

Debates concerning the relation between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and environmental assessment (EA) have long suggested their integration in some form. The purpose of this paper is to go beyond conceptual debates to explore practices of environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment in terms of how they change in response to the Agenda 2030. A thorough web search for EA reports integrating SDGs resulted in 45 cases from five continents, which were then analyzed using a framework on levels of integration to examine and reflect on practice. The results show that in the majority of reports, SDGs are merely mentioned with no further function, that there is a trend towards focusing on positive impacts and that there is a high variation in how contributions to SDGs are assessed and displayed. The paper concludes by identifying key directions for further research, such as ways to further understand practices and to close the gap between theoretical considerations and EA practice.     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

Regulators' perceptions of environmental impact assessment (EIA) benefits in a sustainable development context

The costs of conducting Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) are well known. Yet the benefits of EIA are much more intangible, leading to a situation where some question its value as the tool of choice for informing decision makers of the sustainability consequences of their actions. Exponents of EIA have thus called for more research on the benefits of EIA in order to provide better evidence on its costs versus benefits, and therefore its value as a decision-making tool. This paper contributes to this evidence by exploring the perceived potential benefits and perceived realised benefits of EIA from a regulators' perspective in the context of sustainable development. Using South Africa as a case study, one third of all the officials responsible for EIA review and decision-making (referred to in this paper as the “regulator”) were surveyed to identify their perceptions of the benefits of EIA, and their ideas on how to bridge the gap between potential benefits and realised benefits. The paper contributes suggestions for the analysis of benefits in a sustainable development context, and identifies some additional benefits currently missing from the literature. In a South African context, the key potential and realised benefits as perceived by regulators are the protection of biodiversity, public participation, access to information, mitigation of environmental impacts, and legal compliance and enforcement.     

A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects

A data worth model is presented for the analysis of alternative sampling schemes in a special project where decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This model is part of a comprehensive risk analysis algorthm with the acronym BUDA. The statistical framework in BUDA is Bayesian in nature and incorporates both parameter uncertainty and natural variability. In BUDA a project iterates among the analyst, the decision maker, and the field work. As part of the analysis, a data worth model calculates the value of a data campaign before the actual field work, thereby allowing the identification of an optimum data collection scheme. A goal function which depicts the objectives of a project is used to discriminate among different alternatives. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme is used to propagate parameter uncertainties to the goal function. In our example the uncertain parameters are the parameters which describe the geostatistical properties of saturated hydraulic conductivity in a Molasse environment. Our results indicated that failing to account for parameter uncertainty produces unrealistically optimistic results, while ignoring the spatial structure can lead to an inefficient use of the existing data.     

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.     

Capacity strengthening for environmental assessment in Benin

For over three decades, environmental assessment (EA) has gained increasing international recognition as a means of ensuring sustainable development. In light of environmental challenges, Benin has endorsed the principle that a healthy environment is a human right. This concern is manifested by the creation of many institutions for managing environmental issues. But until today, environmental problems are still on the rise and getting worse day by day because of Benin's limited experience in the field of EA. If EA is to be perceived as an instrument of sustainable development, it is important to take into account the achievements and the needs of the country in this field; because we cannot respond properly and adequately in the field of capacity strengthening in EA without first be familiar with what exists, what is fact, and what is needed. In this study, we address and analyze the status of existing resources in the field of EA in Benin with the purpose of identifying the needs for capacity strengthening to enhance environmental assessment effectiveness in the country. The detailed presentation of the results shows that the legislative and institutional resources are available and represent a strong element in the system of environmental management in Benin. However, there is still a room for improvements towards environmental governance before it becomes a solid system of decision supporting all sectors of intervention because the effective application of those laws and texts still constitute big challenges. Below are the main reasons that explain the particular situation: majority of the laws are put in force very late or taken without implementing decree at all; the organizational capabilities have large gaps; the absence of a mechanism for evaluating the needs for strengthening capacity for EA. Recommendations pinpointed three types of needs which must be filled to enhance the effectiveness of EA in Benin: upstream needs of the structure of EA; implementation and enforcement needs; and, maintenance and efficiency needs.     

Impact of model parameterization on predictive uncertainty of regional groundwater models in the context of environmental impact assessment

Parameterization strategy impacts models' outputs and the associated uncertainty. This is particularly true for transient regional groundwater models where parameters can only be weakly constrained by insufficient observations. However, this is rarely investigated under any particular model structure. This study bridges this gap using a regional groundwater model developed to understand the impact of coal seam gas extraction on groundwater systems in a probabilistic framework. Two different parameterization schemes were implemented for hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. The first method solely relies on the relationship between hydraulic properties and burial depths. The second more complex strategy allows more spatial variations of hydraulic parameters using pilot points. The study provides new insights and practical guidance on the application of groundwater modelling for environmental impact assessment. The results suggest that the choice of model parameterization has a significant influence on predictive uncertainty. The model using the simple parameterization provides predictions with a much wider range than the model with a more sophisticated parameterization. This is because that the lowly parameterized model tends to generate more extreme effective hydraulic parameter fields unless the parameterization simplification converts the inverse problem to a (close to) well-posed problem that rarely exists for applied regional groundwater modelling. The potential impact of model parameterization should be discussed explicitly in groundwater modelling applications to support decision making to avoid misinterpretation of the modelling results.     

Health,safety and environmental unit performance assessment model under uncertainty (case study: steel industry)

Performance assessment is a critical objective of management systems. As a result of the non-deterministic and qualitative nature of performance indicators, assessments are likely to be influenced by evaluators’ personal judgments. Furthermore, in developing countries, performance assessments by the Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) department are based solely on the number of accidents. A questionnaire is used to conduct the study in one of the largest steel production companies in Iran. With respect to health, safety, and environment, the results revealed that control of disease, fire hazards, and air pollution are of paramount importance, with coefficients of 0.057, 0.062, and 0.054, respectively. Furthermore, health and environment indicators were found to be the most common causes of poor performance. Finally, it was shown that HSE management systems can affect the majority of performance safety indicators in the short run, whereas health and environment indicators require longer periods of time. The objective of this study is to present an HSE-MS unit performance assessment model in steel industries. Moreover, we seek to answer the following question: what are the factors that affect HSE unit system in the steel industry? Also, for each factor, the extent of impact on the performance of the HSE management system in the organization is determined.     

Deliberative assessment in complex socioecological systems: recommendations for environmental assessment in drylands

Desertification is a complex process, characterised not only by a damaged ecology but also by conflict over access to scarce resources and trade-offs between the needs of multiple stakeholders at multiple scales. As such, orthodox approaches to environmental assessment in drylands, which rely solely on ecological expertise, are gradually losing legitimacy and greater attention is being given to integrated and participatory assessment approaches, which draw on multiple sources of knowledge in order to accurately describe complex socioecological processes. Moreover, there is growing recognition that successful management of desertification requires a strategy that can accommodate the multiple and often competing needs of contemporary and future stakeholders. In light of these conceptual advances, this paper highlights seven key criteria that dryland environmental assessments must meet: (1) accurately understand complex socioecological system processes, (2) focus on slow variables, (3) integrate multiple scales of analysis, (4) integrate multiple stakeholder perspectives and values, (5) ensure that future generations are fairly represented, (6) ensure that less powerful stakeholders are fairly represented and (7) integrate local and scientific knowledge. The virtues and challenges of deliberative environmental assessments, a novel subset of participatory environmental assessment approaches which places emphasis on social learning, argumentation and critical reflection, are considered in relation to each of these requirements. We argue that deliberative approaches have the potential to achieve accurate, progressive and integrated assessment of dryland environments.     

Global megatrends and their implications for environmental assessment practice

This paper addresses the future of environmental assessment (EA) practice in light of a rapidly changing world. We apply a literature review-based methodology to firstly identify key global megatrends and then reflect upon the implications for EA practice based on some known challenges. The key megatrends identified are synthesised into six categories: i) demographics, ii) urbanization, iii) technological innovation, iv) power shifts, v) resource scarcity and vi) climate change. We then discuss the implications of these megatrends for EA practice against four known EA challenges namely: dealing with i) complexity and uncertainty, ii) efficiency, iii) significance and iv) communication and participation. Our analysis suggests important implications for EA practice such as: increased difficulties with accuracy of prediction; the need for facilitative adaptation; an increase in the occurrence of unexpected events; higher expectations for procedural efficiency; challenges with information and communication management; dealing with significance judgements; and mitigation amidst resource scarcity and increasing pressures on earth systems. The megatrends underscore the need for continued evolution of EA thinking and practice, especially moving away from seeking a predictable single future or outcome towards the possibility of multiple scenarios with associated adaptability and enhanced system resilience capable of responding to rapid change.     

环境质量评价中关键因子识别的方法研究

应用投影寻踪聚类方法分析环境影响指标的数据资料 ,不但可以根据数据内在特性确定各评价指标的相对权重 ,避免权重人为给定的任意性 ,而且还可以通过逐次筛选找出影响环境质量的关键因子。本文将该方法成功地应用于南京市秦淮河水环境评价中 ,筛选出了影响秦淮河水质的关键因子 ,可供秦淮河水环境监测和治理作参考。另一方面 ,该方法还可以推广应用于其它类似问题的综合分析研究中。     

“Ripe for decision”: Tiering in environmental assessment

Tiering of information and decisions from more strategic plans to more specific projects (and sometimes the other way) can streamline plan-making and assessments, and improve decisions at each planning tier. In particular, it can lead to more consistent and comprehensive impact mitigation at the lower tiers. In practice, however, tiering of assessments is carried out only sporadically. This paper reviews the international literature and case studies on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) tiering, and presents the findings of interviews with 14 SEA/EIA experts. It concludes that a conscious and explicit transfer of information from the SEA level, and an explicit receipt of this information at the EIA level are necessary prerequisites for effective tiering. SEAs must be carried out with local actions in mind, in order for mitigation measures to support environmental protection on the ground. Lower-tier decision-makers must also be willing to be bound by decisions by the higher-tier SEA, focusing on implementation of these decisions.     

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in São Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In São Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project, called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult.The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing.Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on ‘what is strategic’ is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval.