Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in —Laikipia,of Kenya

The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the forest conservation areas (ecosystem zoning) all in consultation with government (political class), community and other stakeholders. Groups are organised (environmental management committee) to address conservation, political and vulnerability issues in the pastoral dry forested ecosystem which will sustain pastoralism in the ecosystem.     

Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise?

Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessment of the structural quality of streams in Germany—basic description and current status

Fifteen years ago, the first mapping guidelines for the recording and evaluation of river physical habitat quality in Germany, closely following the Länder Arbeitsgemeinschaft Wasser (LAWA) field survey, have been published. In light of this experience, a revised version has now been developed for North Rhine-Westphalia (West Germany). For the assessment, the streams are divided into segments serving as survey units. The survey is performed primarily in the field from the mouth to the source by an on-site recording of data. Defined reference conditions of the relevant morphological stream types serve as basis of the evaluation. Two evaluation procedures are carried out independently to validate the quality of the data. The proven basic concept operates as follows: the local scale habitat variables are grouped into 31 single parameters, which are then aggregated into six main parameters. These can further be aggregated into three zones: streambed, banks and adjacent land. The main modifications of the presented version are the following: (1) a larger differentiation of morphological stream types and (2) a higher level of detail concerning the mapping of relevant habitat characteristics. The last point allows additional evaluation options related to the morphological needs of the instream biota and a differentiated survey of anthropogenic degradation. Despite all modifications, the comparability with previous surveys has been largely maintained. By qualitative comparison of this method with other European mapping guidelines, different concepts of hydromorphological mapping are finally discussed.     

The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed.     

Benefits of and barriers to SEA follow-up — Theory and practice

If SEA is to facilitate 'strategic' changes, it needs to focus on shaping the ways in which strategic initiatives are implemented, not just formulated. This is why follow-up which refers to postdecisional activities of SEA and strategic initiatives is increasingly seen as crucial. However, to date follow-up has only received limited attention in the SEA literature, as well as in practical guidance. The key reasons for why post decision activities are often overlooked are the lack of understanding of its actual benefits and purportedly multiple problems with its accomplishment. This paper reports on the results of a comprehensive literature review and an international e-survey on the topic, as well as an in-depth analysis of six SEA follow-up cases from England and Canada. Practically encountered and perceived benefits of, and obstacles to SEA follow-up are identified and discussed.     

Assessment of effects of climate change and grazing activity on grassland yield in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Inter-annual dynamics of grassland yield of the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China in 1988–2005 was analyzed using the GLO-PEM model, and the herbage supply function was evaluated. The results indicate that while grassland yield in the region showed marked inter-annual fluctuation there was a trend of increased yield over the 18 years of the study. This increase was especially marked for Alpine Desert and Alpine Steppe and in the west of the region. The inter-annual coefficient of variation of productivity increased from the east to the west of the region and from Marsh, Alpine Meadow, Alpine Steppe, Temperate Steppe to Alpine Desert grasslands. Climate change, particularly increased temperatures in the region during the study period, is suggested to be the main cause of increased grassland yield. However, reduced grazing pressure and changes to the seasonal pattern of grazing could also have influenced the grassland yield trend. These findings indicate the importance of understanding the function of the grassland ecosystems in the region and the effect of climate change on them especially in regard to their use to supply forage for animal production. Reduction of grazing pressure, especially during winter, is indicated to be critical for the restoration and sustainable use of grassland ecosystems in the region.     

The influence of actor capacities on EIA system performance in low and middle income countries —Cases from Georgia and Ghana

In this paper, we aim to better understand the factors that contribute to the substantive performance of EIA systems in low and middle income countries. Substantive performance is defined as the extent to which the EIA process contributes to the EIA objectives for the long term, namely environmental protection or, even more ambitious, sustainable development. We have therefore developed a conceptual model in which we focus on the key actors in the EIA system, the proponent and the EIA authority and their level of ownership as a key capacity to measure their performance, and we distinguish procedural performance and some contextual factors. This conceptual model is then verified and refined for the EIA phase and the EIA follow-up phase (permitting, monitoring and enforcement) by means of 12 case studies from Ghana (four cases) and Georgia (eight cases), both lower–middle income countries. We observe that in most cases the level of substantive performance increases during the EIA phase but drops during the EIA follow-up phase, and as a result only five out of 12 operational cases are in compliance with permit conditions or national environmental standards. We conclude, firstly that ownership of the proponent is the most important factor explaining the level of substantive performance; the higher the proponent's level of ownership the higher the level of substantive performance. The influence of the EIA authority on substantive performance is limited. Secondly, the influence of procedural performance on substantive performance seems less important than expected in the EIA phase but more important during the EIA follow-up phase.In order to improve substantive performance we learned two lessons. Firstly, increasing the proponent's level of ownership seems obvious, but direct change is probably difficult. However, where international finance institutes are involved they can increase ownership. Despite the limited influence of the EIA authority, a proactive strategy of, for example, working together with international finance institutes has a slightly larger influence than a reactive strategy.     

An analysis framework for characterizing and explaining development of EIA legislation in developing countries—Illustrated for Georgia,Ghana and Yemen

Actors in the field of international development co-operation supporting the development of EIA legislation in developing countries often do not achieve the results envisaged. The performance of EIA in these countries often remains weak. One reason, we assume, is that often those actors support the establishment of overly ambitious EIA legislation that cannot achieve its objectives in the light of constraining contexts. To provide more effective support we need to better understand the enabling and constraining contextual factors that influence the development of EIA legislation and to which support actors should align itself. In this article a new analysis framework for classifying, characterizing and explaining the development of EIA legislation is described, measured in terms of ambition levels. Ambitions are defined as intentions the EIA authorities aim to fulfill, expressed in formal EIA legislation. Three country cases, Yemen, Georgia and Ghana are used to illustrate the usefulness of our framework and as a first test to refine the framework. We have formulated the following five hypotheses that complement and refine our analysis framework. One, EIA legislation may develop multilinearly in terms of ambition levels. Two, ambitions in EIA legislation seem to be influenced to a great extent by the power and capacity of, on the one hand, the environmental authorities supporting EIA and, on the other hand, the sector authorities hindering the development of EIA. Three, the political system is the most important context factor influencing the rules of policy-making and the power of the different actors involved. Four, the importance of context factors on the development of ambitions is dependent on the phase of EIA system development. Five, some ambitions seem to be influenced by particular factors; for instance the ambitions for the object of study seem to be influenced by the level of environmental awareness of the sector ministries and parliament.The analysis framework may also assist actors involved in the development of EIA legislation in setting ambitions for EIA legislation that are feasible within the context in which it will be developed and implemented. Application of a country-specific EIA model would seem to be the preferred model to develop EIA legislation because by taking capacities of actors and context factors as a starting point, it offers more potential to well-performing EIA systems.     

Systematic monitoring of heathy woodlands in a Mediterranean climate—a practical assessment of methods

Practical and useful vegetation monitoring methods are needed, and data compatibility and validation of remotely sensed data are desirable. Methods have not been adequately tested for heathy woodlands. We tested the feasibility of detecting species composition shifts in remnant woodland in South Australia, comparing historical (1986) plot data with temporal replicates (2010). We compared the uniformity of species composition among spatially scattered versus spatially clustered plots. At two sites, we compared visual and point-intercept estimation of cover and species diversity. Species composition (presence/absence) shifted between 1986 and 2010. Species that significantly shifted in frequency had low cover. Observations of decreasing species were consistent with predictions from temperature response curves (generalised additive models) for climate change over the period. However, long-term trends could not be distinguished from medium-term dynamics or short-term changes in visibility from this dataset. Difficulties were highlighted in assessing compositional change using historical baselines established for a different purpose in terms of spatial sampling and accuracy of replicate plots, differences in standard plot methods and verification of species identifications. Spatially clustered replicate plots were more similar in species composition than spatially scattered plots, improving change detection potential but decreasing area of inference. Visual surveys detected more species than point-intercepts. Visual cover estimates differed little from point-intercepts although underestimating cover in some instances relative to intercepts. Point-intercepts provide more precise cover estimates of dominant species but took longer and were difficult in steep, heathy terrain. A decision tree based on costs and benefits is presented assessing monitoring options based on data presented. The appropriate method is a function of available resources, the need for precise cover estimates versus adequate species detection, replication and practical considerations such as access and terrain.     

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea—a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world’s fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000–2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4–8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.     

PAHs in water and surface sediments from Douro River estuary and Porto Atlantic coast (Portugal)—impacts on human health

This study investigated the presence of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs) in waters from the Douro River estuary and nearby Atlantic seacoast, which both bath the Porto metropolis. In the area, there is an oil refinery, an important harbour, an intense maritime traffic, small marinas and highly inhabited cities. For the analysis of PAHs, water samples were taken from four sampling sites, at six different times of the year (2011), and extracted by solid-phase extraction (dissolved fraction) and by ultrasound technique (suspended fraction), before their quantification by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Results not only proved the ubiquitous distribution of all analysed PAHs in the present habitat, but also that their global amounts (∑₁₆PAHs) were extremely high at all sampling sites. Their average concentrations attained ≈ 55 ng/L and ≈ 52 μg/g dry weight (dw), respectively, in water and surface sediments. Accordingly, the surveyed area was classified as highly polluted by these organics and so, in view of the concentrations, mutagenic/carcinogenic responses in both humans and aquatic animals are possible to occur. The percentages of carcinogenic PAHs for humans (group 1) dissolved in water and in surface sediments were ca. 5 and 6%, respectively. These results are the first reported in the area and can be used as a baseline for future control of the PAHs levels locally while serving the building of global scenarios of PAHs pollution in Europe.

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Graphical abstract Percentage of PAHs, from different categories acordingly to WHO (2016), in both surface sediments and surface waters from Douro River estuary and Porto Atlantic seacoast; group 1 - carcinogenic, group 2A - probably carcinogenic, group 2B - possibly carcinogenic, and group 3 - not classifiable as carcinogenic to humans

     

Analysis of the spatio-temporal and semantic aspects of land-cover/use change dynamics 1991–2001 in Albania at national and district levels

In the turmoil of a rapidly changing economy the Albanian government needs accurate and timely information for management of their natural resources and formulation of land-use policies. The transformation of the forestry sector has required major changes in the legal, regulatory and management framework. The World Bank financed Albanian National Forest Inventory project provides an analysis of spatially explicit land-cover/use change dynamics in the period 1991–2001 using the FAO/UNEP Land Cover Classification System for codification of classes, satellite remote sensing and field survey for data collection and elements of the object-oriented geo-database approach to handle changes as an evolution of land-cover/use objects, i.e. polygons, over time to facilitate change dynamics analysis.Analysis results at national level show the trend of natural resources depletion in the form of modifications and conversions that lead to a gradual shift from land-cover/use types with a tree cover to less dense tree covers or even a complete removal of trees. Policy failure (e.g., corruption, lack of law enforcement) is seen as the underlying cause. Another major trend is urbanisation of areas near large urban centres that change urban-rural linkages. Furthermore, after privatisation agricultural areas increased in the hills where environmental effects may be detrimental, while prime agricultural land in the plains is lost to urbanisation.At district level, the local variability of spatially explicit land-cover/use changes shows different types of natural resources depletion. The distribution of changes indicates a regional prevalence, thus a decentralised approach to the natural resources management could be advocated.     

Trace Element Patterns and Seasonal Variability of Dust Precipitation in a Low Polluted City – The Example of Karlsruhe/Germany

Urban areas of different land uses can be distinguished by their specific patterns of atmospheric dust and trace element precipitation. Dusts emitted from industrial areas with fossil fuel processing, for instance, are enriched in V, Ni and Co. Cluster analysis groups sampling sites based on their specific element patterns. The resulting groups correspond to the surrounding land use: Urban sampling sites were identified showing similar patterns of dust and trace element precipitation as a reference site; dusts of other urban sites were influenced by diffuse pollution (caused by non-point and dispersed pollution sources), or by specific industrial emissions. Cluster analysis was also used to characterize the chemical dust composition. Three clusters of typical element associations were distinguished. These clusters represent the dust matrix, diffuse urban pollution and pollution due to fossil fuel processing. Dust precipitation and chemical dust composition show seasonal variations. Dust precipitation and concentrations of trace elements in the precipitated dust are negatively correlated during the annual courses. The highest concentrations of trace elements occur during winter, whereas the highest precipitations of dust were found during summer. This finding stresses that both, precipitation and concentration have to be addressed for the environmental assessment of urban dusts.     

Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960–2005

This paper illustrates the result of land use/cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh using topographic maps and multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1960 to 2005. The Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was used to extract information from satellite data, and post-classification change detection method was employed to detect and monitor land use/cover change. Derived land use/cover maps were further validated by using high resolution images such as SPOT, IRS, IKONOS and field data. The overall accuracy of land cover change maps, generated from Landsat and IRS-1D data, ranged from 85% to 90%. The analysis indicated that the urban expansion of Dhaka Metropolitan resulted in the considerable reduction of wetlands, cultivated land, vegetation and water bodies. The maps showed that between 1960 and 2005 built-up areas increased approximately 15,924 ha, while agricultural land decreased 7,614 ha, vegetation decreased 2,336 ha, wetland/lowland decreased 6,385 ha, and water bodies decreased about 864 ha. The amount of urban land increased from 11% (in 1960) to 344% in 2005. Similarly, the growth of landfill/bare soils category was about 256% in the same period. Much of the city's rapid growth in population has been accommodated in informal settlements with little attempt being made to limit the risk of environmental impairments. The study quantified the patterns of land use/cover change for the last 45 years for Dhaka Metropolitan that forms valuable resources for urban planners and decision makers to devise sustainable land use and environmental planning.     

Linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) in water of Lake Dianchi—spatial and seasonal variation, and kinetics of biodegradation

Agroforesty systems, which are recommended as a management option to lower the shallow groundwater level and to reuse saline subsurface drainage waters from the tile-drained croplands in the drainage-impacted areas of Jan Joaquin Valley of California, have resulted in excessive boron buildup in the soil root zone. To assess the efficacy of the long-term impacts of soil boron buildup in agroforesty systems, a mathematical model was developed to simulate non-conservative boron transport. The developed dynamic two-dimensional finite element model simulates water flow and boron transport in saturated–unsaturated soil system, including boron sorption and boron uptake by root-water extraction processes. The simulation of two different observed field data sets by the developed model is satisfactory, with mean absolute error of 1.5 mg/L and relative error of 6.5%. Application of the model to three different soils shows that boron adsorption is higher in silt loam soil than that in sandy loam and clay loam soils. This result agrees with the laboratory experimental observations. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that boron uptake by root-water extraction process influences the boron concentration distribution along the root zone. Also, absorption coefficient and maximum adsorptive capacity of a soil for boron are found to be sensitive parameters.     

Temporal and spatial change detecting (1998–2003) and predicting of land use and land cover in Core corridor of Pearl River Delta (China) by using TM and ETM+ images

Land use/land cover (LULC) has a profound impact on economy, society and environment, especially in rapid developing areas. Rapid and prompt monitoring and predicting of LULC’s change are crucial and significant. Currently, integration of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) methods is one of the most important methods for detecting LULC’s change, which includes image processing (such as geometrical-rectifying, supervised-classification, etc.), change detection (post-classification), GIS-based spatial analysis, Markov chain and a Cellular Automata (CA) models, etc. The core corridor of Pearl River Delta was selected for studying LULC’s change in this paper by using the above methods for the reason that the area contributed 78.31% (1998)–81.4% (2003) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the whole Pearl River Delta (PRD). The temporal and spatial LULC’s changes from 1998 to 2003 were detected by RS data. At the same time, urban expansion levels in the next 5 and 10 years were predicted temporally and spatially by using Markov chain and a simple Cellular Automata model respectively. Finally, urban expansion and farmland loss were discussed against the background of China’s urban expansion and cropland loss during 1990–2000. The result showed: (1) the rate of urban expansion was up to 8.91% during 1998–2003 from 169,078.32 to 184,146.48 ha; (2) the rate of farmland loss was 5.94% from 312,069.06 to 293,539.95 ha; (3) a lot of farmland converted to urban or development area, and more forest and grass field converted to farmland accordingly; (4) the spatial predicting result of urban expansion showed that urban area was enlarged ulteriorly compared with the previous results, and the directions of expansion is along the existing urban area and transportation lines.     

Levels and distribution of persistent organochlorine pesticide residues in water and sediments of Gomti River (India)—a tributary of the Ganges River

This study reports the concentration levels and distribution pattern of the persistent organochlorine pesticide (OCPs) residues in the water and bed-sediments of the Gomti River collected seasonally over a period of 2 years. The water and bed-sediment samples were collected from eight different sites and analyzed for aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, HCB, HCH isomers, DDT isomers/metabolites, endosulfan isomers (alpha and beta), endosulfan sulfate, heptachlor and its metabolites, alpha-chlordane, gamma-chlordane and methoxychlor. In the river water and sediments SigmaOCPs residues ranged between 2.16 and 567.49 ng l(-1) and 0.92 and 813.59 ng g(-1), respectively. The results, further, suggested that source of DDT contamination is from the aged and weathered agricultural soils with signature of recently used DDT in the river catchments. To assess any adverse effect of OCPs contamination on river's biological component, the threshold effect level (TEL) was used. The results revealed that bed-sediments of the Gomti River are contaminated with lindane, endrin, heptachlor epoxides and DDT, particularly at site-4 and may contribute to sediment toxicity in the freshwater ecosystem of the river.