Tracking chemicals in products around the world: introduction of a dynamic substance flow analysis model and application to PCBs

Dynamically tracking flows and stocks of problematic chemicals in products (CiPs) in the global anthroposphere is essential to understanding their environmental fates and risks. The complex behavior of CiPs during production, use and waste disposal makes this a challenging task. Here we introduce and describe a dynamic substance flow model, named Chemicals in Products - Comprehensive Anthropospheric Fate Estimation (CiP-CAFE), which facilitates the quantification of time-variant flows and stocks of CiPs within and between seven interconnected world regions and the generation of global scale emission estimates. We applied CiP-CAFE to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), first to evaluate its ability to reproduce previously reported global-scale atmospheric emission inventories and second to illustrate its potential applications and merits. CiP-CAFE quantifies the pathways of PCBs during production, use and waste disposal stages, thereby deducing the temporal evolution of in-use and waste stocks and identifying their long-term final sinks. Time-variant estimates of PCB emissions into air, water and soil can be attributed to different processes and be fed directly into a global fate and transport model. By capturing the international movement of PCBs as technical chemicals, and in products and waste, CiP-CAFE reveals that the extent of global dispersal caused by humans is larger than that occurring in the natural environment. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the model output is most sensitive to the PCB production volume and the lifetime of PCB-containing products, suggesting that a shortening of that lifetime is key to reducing future PCB emissions.     

削减和控制二恶英管理政策与技术应用的国际对比分析

削减和控制二恶英是履行<关于持久性有机污染物的斯德哥尔摩公约>的一项重要内容.我国是全球二恶英排放较大的国家之一,为了控制该类物质的排放,国家履约行动中将有80%用于减排二恶英.由于国外发达国家在20世纪80年代已经开始关注二恶英的污染,本世纪二恶英排放已经显著的降低.本文分析了发达国家在二恶英治理方面的政策措施,并与我国当前现有措施进行了比较,提出了我国政策制度的不足.其次总结了控制二恶英的主要技术,包括利用最佳可行技术进行削减和控制.分析发达国家利用最佳可行技术的情况及我国技术发展的状况,揭示了双方存在的技术差距.提出了由于上述管理和技术差异而导致发达国家和我国削减和控锚二恶英的不同工作侧重点.最后综合指出我国控制二恶英的管理和技术对策及整体框架体系.     

Cancer mortality in towns in the vicinity of incinerators and installations for the recovery or disposal of hazardous waste

BackgroundWaste treatment plants release toxic emissions into the environment which affect neighboring towns.ObjectivesTo investigate whether there might be excess cancer mortality in towns situated in the vicinity of Spanish-based incinerators and installations for the recovery or disposal of hazardous waste, according to the different categories of industrial activity.MethodsAn ecologic study was designed to examine municipal mortality due to 33 types of cancer, across the period 1997–2006. Population exposure to pollution was estimated on the basis of distance from town of residence to pollution source. Using Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) regression models with Integrated Nested Laplace approximations for Bayesian inference, and Mixed Poisson regression models, we assessed the risk of dying from cancer in a 5-kilometer zone around installations, analyzed the effect of category of industrial activity, and conducted individual analyses within a 50-kilometer radius of each installation.ResultsExcess cancer mortality (BYM model: relative risk, 95% credible interval) was detected in the total population residing in the vicinity of these installations as a whole (1.06, 1.04–1.09), and, principally, in the vicinity of incinerators (1.09, 1.01–1.18) and scrap metal/end-of-life vehicle handling facilities, in particular (1.04, 1.00–1.09). Special mention should be made of the results for tumors of the pleura (1.71, 1.34–2.14), stomach (1.18, 1.10–1.27), liver (1.18, 1.06–1.30), kidney (1.14, 1.04–1.23), ovary (1.14, 1.05–1.23), lung (1.10, 1.05–1.15), leukemia (1.10, 1.03–1.17), colon–rectum (1.08, 1.03–1.13) and bladder (1.08, 1.01–1.16) in the vicinity of all such installations.ConclusionsOur results support the hypothesis of a statistically significant increase in the risk of dying from cancer in towns near incinerators and installations for the recovery or disposal of hazardous waste.     

Air pollution assessment of toxic emissions from hazardous waste lagoons and landfills

The air quality impacts of hazardous waste disposal sites can be assessed on the basis of their contribution to each of the toxic contaminants. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the available methods of air quality assessment and their drawbacks. The need of air quality assessment is to assure that ambient concentrations of specific contaminants resulting from emissions will not exceed the acceptable levels for protection of public health and the ecosystem. Ambient concentrations of toxic contaminants are generally obtained by field measurements or air monitoring. However, field measurements and air monitoring of low-level toxic contaminants are costly and time consuming. As a result, most hazardous waste land disposal sites have not been adequately assessed. This paper describes current regulatory requirements in the United States for air quality assessment of hazardous waste land disposal sites. Emphasis is directed toward air quality assessment methodology. The paper also discusses emission predicting models based on the waste quantity and composition, scientific analysis of the waste conversion process together with meteorological conditions. The emission models are especially useful where emission cannot be reliably monitored or where a new disposal site is proposed.     

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China’s economy:in a short-term,China’s GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.     

中国深度脱碳路径及政策分析

《巴黎协定》开启了全球气候治理的新进程,进一步明确了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性和目标要求。对中国来说,如何尽快推动经济增长和碳排放的脱钩,不仅是实现应对气候变化中长期战略目标的核心任务,更是保障经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。为此,本文基于中国经济、社会、能源和重要的终端能源消费行业历史发展趋势的分析,通过"自下而上"的模型方法考察了能源、工业、建筑、交通等行业和领域的深度碳减排潜力,并基于详细的技术分析提出了中国中长期的深度脱碳路径。研究表明,在深度脱碳路径下,中国将顺利完成国家自主贡献提出的2030年左右碳排放达峰和碳强度较2005年下降60%—65%的目标;此后非化石能源发展进一步加速,到2050年非化石能源在一次能源中占比达到44%左右,工业、建筑、交通等终端耗能行业的低碳转型进一步加速,2050年碳排放回落至2005年前水平,碳强度较2005年下降90%以上。为实现深度脱碳,本文从强化碳排放总量约束和相关制度规范建设、完善产业低碳发展激励政策、加强相关市场机制作用、倡导低碳生活和消费等四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以供决策者参考。     

Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China, promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium- and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with “bottom-up” modeling analysis and proposes a medium- and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies’ mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from the 2005 level. From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.     

Quantifying and managing food-sourced nutrient metabolism in Chinese cities

Food supply and consumption are critical for sustaining urban system functions, and are key determinants of the quantity and pathways of nutrient flow in cities. Nutrient elements from urban food consumption are becoming major pollutant sources in urban environments. Therefore, understanding flow magnitude and pathways, the role of a growing population, and changing dietary structure and technology in future nutrient metabolism are essential to understand cities as ecosystems and urban environmental management. Taking the city of Xiamen, a rapid urbanizing area of Southeast China as a case study, we simulated urban metabolism of three major food-sourced nutrient elements (carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus or CNP) over 1991–2010 and environmental emissions. Impacts of future population growth, dietary habit change, and waste treatment improvement on various environments were forecast by scenario analysis. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test how different waste treatment technologies affect environmental emissions from food-sourced nutrients. Our results show that the food-sourced CNP had various metabolic fluxes through urban systems, with carbon mostly emitted into the air and nitrogen and phosphorus mostly discharged into landfills and water. Population growth and dietary structure change will accelerate increases of nutrient emissions to the environment, whereas enhancing current waste treatment technology can just alter emissions to different environments. Based on the results, we discuss how food-sourced nutrient metabolism can be better managed, to enhance connectivity between cities and their hinterlands and maintain environmental emissions within the carrying capacity of the cities.     

2℃和1.5℃目标对中国国家自主贡献和长期排放路径的影响

在《巴黎协定》设置的混合减排机制下,中国的INDC尽管自主提出,但也受全球气候目标及全球减排进展的影响。本文基于气候公平的不同原则,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,并利用最新情景研究数据,分析了2℃和1.5℃目标对中国INDC力度以及长期排放路径的影响。研究结果表明:第一,相比2℃目标,1.5℃目标对本世纪内全球累积碳排放空间、关键时点的减排目标、近期减排力度以及碳中和时间等都提出了更高要求。第二,根据公平分配方案的评估结果表明,2℃目标下,中国现有INDC在责任方案下能够满足减排要求,而在其他方案下存在排放差距。而在1.5℃目标下,中国在四个方案下均无法满足减排要求,且排放差距进一步扩大。第三,2℃和1.5℃目标对中国确定长期排放目标以及碳中和时间,也会产生显著影响。相比2℃目标,1.5℃目标下,中国2050年排放相对2010年下降率需要再增加约15个百分点,实现碳中和的时间需要提前15年左右。因此,中国需要根据公平分配研究给出的提高INDC力度要求的区间,提前准备《巴黎协定》后关于全球盘点和INDC更新议题新一轮谈判的应对策略,同时应尽早启动制定长期低碳发展战略的政策研究进程。     

中国城市化进程中的城市道路交通碳排放研究

探讨了中国城市化、经济发展、技术进步等与城市道路交通碳排放之间的长期均衡关系与动态作用机制,并对中国城市道路交通碳排放进行了预测和情景分析。结果表明:①城市化率、交通能源强度、城市居民消费水平和人均GDP对城市道路交通碳排放的长期均衡弹性分别为0.93、0.73、0.68、0.44;②城市道路交通碳排放的最大贡献者在中短期内是交通能源强度,长期内是城市化率;③人均GDP增长率的提高,短期内会促使城市道路交通碳排放增长率提高,而长期又有助于使之降低;④中国城市道路交通碳排放持续增长的趋势在相当长时期内不可避免;⑤不同的发展理念和政策与技术的组合,可以使城市道路交通碳排放发生重大变化。基于研究,提出了中国城市道路交通碳减排的政策取向。     

Assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in sludges according to the European environmental policy

The amount of sewage sludge generated in Europe is expected to surpass the 10 million tons/year in 2006 as a result of the waste water treatment process according to the Water Policy in European Union. Sewage sludge is what is left behind after water is cleaned in waste treatment plants and is characterized for this high content in nitrogen and phosphorous that could be of great importance in agriculture as fertilizer or soil conditioner. On the other hand, pollutants like metals and organic contaminants are usually removed from water and are accumulated in the sewage sludge, reaching the food chain if their concentrations are not below the safe limits established by the European legislation. The latter issue is of great concern nowadays and in this sense, different works alert against the use of the sewage sludge in agriculture arguing that serious illnesses, even resulting in death as well as adverse environmental impacts are associated to the application of sewage sludge. This work is a continuation of a former comprehensive survey on of priority organic pollutant in sludges for agricultural purposes carried out by our group in Catalonia and this time is focused on the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), one of the most toxic group of organic compounds listed in the Work Document on Sludge which is the reference tool in this field in Europe and is also included in the Stockholm Convention. Eighty eight samples were collected from the end of 2003 to April 2006 and the concentrations detected were lower than the 100 ng/kg I-TEQ limit recommended by the European legislation (EC, 2000). Thus, sewage sludges generated in Catalonia do not represent a threat to human health if they are used as fertilizers in agriculture.     

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

Application of active disassembly to extend profitable remanufacturing in small electrical and electronic products

Alternative production approaches are required because of conventional manufacturing's adverse environmental impacts. Remanufacturing returns used products to at least original performance specification from customers' perspectives and gives the resultant products warranties at least equal to that of new equivalents. Remanufacturing is relatively novel in research terms compared to conventional manufacture and recycling but often is more profitable than both. It would help manufacturers address competitive, environmental and legislative pressures by enabling them to meet pressing waste legislation while producing high-quality, lower cost products with less environmentally damaging end-of-life (EoL) and manufacturing modes. Remanufacturing is highly profitable in large, complex mechanical and electromechanical products but with conventional manufacturing and design modes not so in smaller products; particularly fast moving ones. However, effective waste management is urgently required for such products because waste electrical and electronic equipment constitutes the fastest growing EU waste stream and a large percentage of products being produced by major developing economies such as China are of this type. Active disassembly (AD) enables product non-destructive, self-disassembly at EoL and was invented to facilitate a step-change improvement in recycling. This research investigated the use of AD to extend profitable remanufacturing into small EoL electrical and electronic products.     

Interpretation of the source-specific substantive control measures of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

Being persistent, toxic, and bio-accumulative, Mercury (Hg) seriously affects the environment and human health. Due to Hg's attribute of long-range environmental transport across national borders, especially through atmospheric transport, no country can fully protect its environment and human health with its own efforts, without global cooperation. The Minamata Convention on Mercury, which was formally adopted and opened for signature in October 2013, is the only global environmental regime on the control of Hg pollution. Its main substantive control measures are source-specific: its phasing-out, phasing-down, and other main substantive requirements all direct to specific categories of pollution sources through the regulation of specific sectors of the economy and social life. This Convention does not take a national quota approach to quantify the Parties' nationwide total allowable consumption or discharge of Hg or Hg compounds, nor does it quantify their nationwide total reduction requirements. This paper attempts to find the underlying reasons for this source-specific approach and offers two interpretations. One possible interpretation is that Hg might be a non-threshold pollutant, i.e., a pollutant without a risk-free value of concentration. The existence of a reference dose (RfD), reference concentration (RfC), provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI), minimal risk level (MRL) or other similar reference values of Hg does not necessarily mean that Hg cannot be regarded as non-threshold because such reference values have scientific uncertainties and may also involve policy considerations. Another interpretation is that Hg lacks a feasibly determinable total allowable quantity. There is evidence that negotiators might have treated Hg as non-threshold, or at least accepted that Hg lacks a feasibly determinable total allowable quantity: (1) The negotiators were informed about the serious situations of the current emissions, releases, and legacy deposition; (2) the UNEP Secretariat took the position that Hg is non-threshold and should be eliminated to the maximum; (3) European countries, the USA and other western countries were in a better position to regard Hg as non-threshold and push forward a global reduction of Hg emissions and releases to the minimum; (4) the negotiators took the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) as a model; and (5) a fairly large number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were organized under umbrella NGO networks such as the Zero Mercury Working Group (ZMWG) and the International POPs Elimination Network (IPEN) and made a significant contribution to the negotiation process. The interpretations for the Minamata Convention might similarly be used to interpret the source-specific approach of the Stockholm Convention on POPs and the national quota approach of global environmental regimes on stratospheric ozone and climate mitigation. These two interpretations focus on the features of the pollutants and for this reason may be useful for future negotiators of other international environmental treaties to select appropriate models. They also suggest that the source-specific approach may be adopted in the future for pollutants with similar features of being possibly non-threshold and without a feasibly determinable total allowable quantity.     

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Abstract

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated. The results show that, in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario, climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration, and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. By the end of the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk; Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term. Northwest China will become an area of high risks, and deciduous coniferous forests, temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

二氧化碳排放的国际比较及对我国低碳经济发展的启示

首先分析了我国二氧化碳排放的基本情况,指出当前二氧化碳排放增长率虽然有所下降,但环境形势依然严峻。然后从国家碳排放总量、人均CO2排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量、国家累积碳排放和人均累积碳排放几个方面对我国二氧化碳排放水平与国际水平进行了比较,并结合节能减排目标对我国低碳经济的发展提出了相关建议。     

Current Status of Manufacturing Hazardous Waste in Shanghai

Abstract

It is difficult to manage the manufacturing hazardous waste (MHW) which is generated from a huge amount of complicated sources and causes very serious pollution. Therefore more and more attention has been paid to MHW pollution. Shanghai, as an industrial and economic center and an international metropolis in China, has a vast industrial system spanning a multitude of sectors, which generates MHW not only in a huge magnitude but also in a large variety of types from complicated sources, resulting in severe pollution. In 2003, the production of MHW in Shanghai is about 3.96 × 10⁵ ton, involving 33 indices. Most of MHW in Shanghai is treated and disposed of, but a significant portion is not handled properly and effectively. This paper carries out in-field investigation on the current status of MHW production and treatment in Shanghai, and puts forward scientific proposals that Shanghai should facilitate cleaner production and minimize hazardous waste; strictly enforce hazardous waste registration system, strengthen monitoring the certified enterprises; strengthen intent disposal center construction and realize hazardous waste reclamation; accelerate establishing the technical criteria and the management policy, promote the research and development on the treatment and disposal technology, and strengthen information management, thus realizing integrated management on MHW pollution.     

Current Status of Manufacturing Hazardous Waste in Shanghai

It is difficult to manage the manufacturing hazardous waste （MHW） which is generated from a huge amount of complicated sources and causes very serious pollution. Therefore more and more attention has been paid to MHW pollution. Shanghai, as an industrial and economic center and an international metropolis in China, has a vast industrial system spanning a multitude of sectors, which generates MHW not only in a huge magnitude but also in a large variety of types from complicated sources, resulting in severe pollution. In 2003, the production of MHW in Shanghai is about 3.96 × 10^5 ton, involving 33 indices. Most of MHW in Shanghai is treated and disposed of, but a significant portion is not handled properly and effectively. This paper carries out infield investigation on the current status of MHW production and treatment in Shanghai, and puts forward scientific proposals that Shanghai should facilitate cleaner production and minimize haz- ardous waste; strictly enforce hazardous waste registration system, strengthen monitoring the certified enterprises; strengthen intent disposal center construction and realize hazardous waste reclamation; accelerate establishing the technical criteria and the management policy, promote the research and development on the treatment and disposal technology, and strengthen information management, thus realizing integrated management on MHW pollution.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

基于ARIMA和BP神经网络组合模型的我国碳排放强度预测

预测我国碳排放强度的长期变动趋势, 对国家进行宏观经济管理和节能减排工作具有重要的参考价值。运用深入分析自回归移动平均模型和神经网络的特性,并在此基础上建立ARIMA模型和BP神经网络组合模型,将碳排放强度的时间序列的数据结构分解为线性和非线性残差部分,对我国碳排放强度的变化趋势进行了综合分析与预测。结果显示:今后10 a我国碳排放强度总体是逐步下降的,但到2020年我国碳排放强度仅比2005年下降34%,比我国政府提出碳排放强度下降40%~45%的目标还有一定的差距。因此,要在2020年实现我国碳排放强度目标,必须要调整宏观经济政策,采取各种政策措施以实现目标